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Pulse Crop Outlook
February 2018
Presented by:
Chuck Penner
@leftfieldcr
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PULSE MARKET OUTLOOK
Global pulse environment
What’s the Indian situation?
How bad is it?
Market outlooks
Peas
Lentils
Fababeans
Soybeans
1
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INDIAN PULSE CONSUMPTION
2
These years were the “setup”
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PRICES RESPONDED
3
50 cent red lentils & $14 yellow peas
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AND FARMERS RESPONDED
4
Appropriate response to high pea prices
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US PULSE PRODUCTION
5
Large response for all three pulses
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AUSTRALIAN PULSE PRODUCTION
6
Good weather and more acres
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EU-28 PEA PRODUCTION
7
Eastern Europe & Baltic countries show most growth
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OTHER RESPONSES
8
Russia/Ukraine
Pea production up 41% in ‘16, another 24% in ’17
Kazakhstan
Lentil acreage from 17k acres in 2014 to 820k
acres in 2017
Argentina
Chickpea acres doubled in last 2 yrs (prod not so
much)
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INDIAN PULSE CONSUMPTION
9
This year is the “reaction”
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INDIA’S ISSUES
10
Food insecure nation
29% of income spent on food
Large farming segment
~40% of population are farmers
Two years of drought
Two years of large crops
Belief in “managed economy”
Trying to please both consumers and farmers
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INDIAN DESI CHICKPEA PRICE
11
Problem for consumers
Problem for farmers
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INDIAN GOVERNMENT RESPONSE
12
When prices were high
Banned futures trading
Banned exports
Imposed stock limits
Increased import tenders
Disposed of buffer stocks
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INDIAN GOVERNMENT RESPONSE
13
When prices were low
Raised Minimum Support Prices
Set import limits
Imposed import tariffs
Required fumigation
Built buffer stocks
Allowed exports
Banned futures trading (proposed)
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INDIAN RABI CHICKPEA PLANTING
14
Another year of record acres
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RABI SEASON RAINFALL (OCT-JAN)
15
Main lentil and pea area
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LATEST VEGETATION INDEX
16
Main lentil and pea area
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PEA PRICES -- MUMBAI
17
Prices reflecting
supplies?
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INDIAN PEA REQUIREMENTS
18
Import needs
roughly 1.5 –
2.0 mmt
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INDIAN LENTIL REQUIREMENTS
19
Import needs
roughly 750kt
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OPPORTUNITIES FOR PEAS -- CHINA
20
100-200 kt per year growth
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OPPORTUNITIES FOR PEAS -- DOMESTIC
21
500-800kt of what?
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OTHER OPPORTUNITIES FOR PEAS
22
Increase sales push to other South Asian
countries for chana substitution, similar to India
Increase sales to SE Asia for fractionation,
similar to China
Increase domestic processing
600-750kt announced/proposed
For domestic and export channels
Food, feed, pet food
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OPPORTUNITIES FOR LENTILS
For reds, increase sales push to other South
Asian countries
Bangladesh, Pakistan, Sri Lanka
Strengthen ties with MENA countries
Greens, not as much concern
Already diversified
23
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DIVERSIFYING MARKETS
24
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CANADIAN PEA ACREAGE
25
20-25% decline
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CANADIAN PEA SUPPLIES
26
Won’t drop as
much as expected
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CANADIAN PEA EXPORTS
27
Just a modest
recovery
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CANADIAN PEA BIDS
28
Green will
hold premium
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13/14 14/15 15/16 16/17 17/18 18/19
Seeded Acres, 000's 3,325 3,985 3,680 4,239 4,093 3,200Harvested Acres, 000's 3,285 3,923 3,632 4,166 4,058 3,133Yield (bu/acre) 44.3 35.7 32.4 42.7 37.2 38.5
Supply ('000 tonnes) Carry-In 174 329 684 174 300 952 Production 3,961 3,810 3,201 4,836 4,112 3,278 Imports 25 31 15 30 10 10Total Supply 4,160 4,170 3,900 5,040 4,422 4,241
Disposition ('000 tonnes) Seed 270 250 287 279 220 250 Other Domestic 781 154 792 511 800 950 Exports 2,781 3,082 2,647 3,950 2,450 2,750Total Disposition 3,831 3,486 3,726 4,740 3,470 3,950
Ending Stocks 329 684 174 300 952 291Stocks/Use 8.6% 19.6% 4.7% 6.3% 27.4% 7.4%Source: Statistics Canada with LeftField projections in bold
CANADIAN PEA BALANCE SHEET
29
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PEA OUTLOOK
Large ending stocks for 17/18
Exports down 1.5 mln t (India ↓, China ↑)
More domestic use
For 18/19
Drop in Cdn prod’n, limited growth in other countries
Not counting on more demand from India
Bit more interest from China
More domestic processing
Ending stocks back down to “normal”
30
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CANADIAN LENTIL ACREAGE
31
20-25% decline
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CANADIAN LENTIL SUPPLIES
32
Steady supplies
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CANADIAN LENTIL EXPORTS
33
Subdued again
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CANADIAN LENTIL BIDS
34
Been here before
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13/14 14/15 15/16 16/17 17/18 18/19
Seeded Acres, 000's 2,720 3,120 4,035 5,860 4,405 3,400Harvested Acres, 000's 2,695 3,008 3,926 5,740 4,383 3,329Yield (lbs/acre) 1,850 1,456 1,427 1,248 1,287 1,454
Supply ('000 tonnes) Carry-In 467 786 365 73 405 799 Production 2,262 1,987 2,541 3,248 2,559 2,195 Imports 9 13 16 102 50 50Total Supply 2,738 2,786 2,922 3,423 3,014 3,043
Disposition ('000 tonnes) Seed 106 137 199 150 115 130 Other Domestic 93 105 505 411 250 300 Exports 1,753 2,179 2,145 2,457 1,850 1,975Total Disposition 1,952 2,421 2,849 3,018 2,215 2,405
Ending Stocks 786 365 73 405 799 638Stocks/Use 40% 15% 3% 13% 36% 27%Source: Statistics Canada with LeftField projections in bold
CANADIAN LENTIL BALANCE SHEET
35
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LENTIL OUTLOOK
Large ending stocks for 17/18
Been there before (not helpful for bids)
For 18/19
Supplies steady
Need improved demand (will require low prices)
Not counting on more demand from India
Ending stocks a bit lower but still “comfortable”
36
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CANADIAN FABABEAN ACREAGE
Sask acreage
mostly steady
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CANADIAN FABABEAN EXPORTS
15-25 kt per year,
but very erratic
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AUSTRALIAN FABABEAN PRODUCTION
Multi-year low
in 2017
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FABA/BROAD BEAN PRODUCTION – EU28
Expansion in
Baltic & East
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SELECTED FABABEAN PRICES
Aussie prices
bouncing back
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CDN FABABEAN & FEED PEA BIDS
Establishing
a premium?
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FABABEAN OUTLOOK
For 2017/18
More upside for export market
Some strength possible in protein market
For 18/19
Cdn production up a bit (as pulse alternative)
Steady as feed source
Continued export competition
Need domestic processing (longer term)
43
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GLOBAL SOYBEAN PRODUCTION & USE
Usage growing
~16mmt per year
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GLOBAL SOYBEAN ENDING STOCKS
Record large but
leveling off
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CHINA SOYBEAN PROD’N & IMPORTS
Consumption growing
at 7-8 mmt per year
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SOUTH AMERICAN SOYBEAN PROD’N
Small drop this year?
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SOUTH AMERICAN VEGETATION
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US ENDING STKS & FARM PRICE
USDA price steady?
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CANADIAN SOYBEAN ACREAGE
Cdn acreage steady?
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CANADIAN SOYBEAN EXPORTS
Cdn exports catching
up now but need to
keep moving
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SOYBEAN BASIS
Western basis weaker
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SOYBEAN OUTLOOK
For 2017/18
Waiting on the South American crop (already factored in?)
China shifts purchases to Brazil
Canadian supplies heavy
For 18/19
Acreage expected higher in US
Need another big production increase (again)
Any weather hiccups will lift prices
53
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@leftfieldcr