Download - Production Economics of Allanblackia
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Production Economics of Allanblackia
If Allanblackia is a cash cow?
- How big is the cow- How much cash does the cow give you
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What are our assumptions?
- seedlings/cuttings are available- farm-gate price is $0.15 per kilo of seeds- one village/community will produce viable quantity- cuttings take 4 years to fruit- seedlings take 12 years to fruit- adequate labour for processing- there will be sufficient males in the landscape- average yield of 30 fruit per tree- three AB fruit give 1 kg of seeds - no negative aspects of AB (alternate pest host)- no significant input costs (pests, fertiliser)- no punitive taxes or barriers- no restrictive policies
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Values of average total seed weight per fruit per tree are shown for 57 trees, with measurements based on 40 fruit per tree. Values varied widely between trees, and differences were statistically significant. Source: ICRAF Cameroon
0
50
100
150
200
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400
450
Tree
Ave
rage
tota
l see
d w
eigh
t per
frui
t per
tree
(g)
Tree-to-tree variation in seed weight per fruit for A. floribunda trees sampled at the Yalpenda site, Cameroon
3 fruit = 1 kg seeds
4 fruit = 1kg seeds
5 fruit = 1kg seeds
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Years to fruit
Size of tree Multiplication rate per year
Seeds 10-12 20-30m 5000
Rooted cuttings
- Tree stump
3-4 5-8m 200
Rooted cuttings
- Mother block
3-4 5-8m 4000
Marcots 1-2 4-6m 20
Grafts 2-3 3-4m 100
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The farm or “production system”, with :
Livestock raising systems
Uncultivated lands
Tools, machines, buildings and cash flows
Workforce and labour organisation during the year
Transformation systems
Cropping systems
The farm level and the system approach
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The cultivated plot and the system approach
Perennial crops and the case of cacao tree
Dynamic systems
Intercropping and complex associations
Cacao trees
Shade / Fruits
Shade / Timber /Fruits …
Time
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Olympe and the cropping system level
Variables definitions(Information database)
Croppinglnd
livestockraising
systemsAll taxes
andunits
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Olympe : the farm level (allocation of surfaces)
All taxesand
units
STEP 1Definitionsfor UNITS
and TAXES
Variables definitions(Information database)
STEP 2
Definitions for
- NAMES of VARIABLES
- UNIT PRICESPER type of INCOME and
COST.
- AVAILABLE WORKING PERIODS during the year
Croppingand
livestockraising
systems
STEP 3 Definitions
for- cycles,- q/ha- NECESARY working timeFARM :
C & L systems
and areas
STEP 4- cropping S,- livestock S- areas
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The region level and the system approach
Farming systems
A
A
A
B
B
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Olympe functions : external effects
Variables definitions(Information database)
Croppingand
livestockraising
systemsAll taxes
andunits FARM :
C & L systems
and areas
Typologies
REGION :Farm types
Global analysis
Prices and yields
variations
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Clove cultivation
What are existing enterprises and alternatives to AB
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Eucalyptus over tea
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Bananas and maize
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Black peppers and gliricidia
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Economies of scale
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No. trees per ha
Survival % Number surviving
Income per tree ($)
Total income per ha ($)
Year 1 625 75 469 0 0
Year 2 469 90 422 0 0
Year 3 422 95 400 0 0
Year 4 400 100 400 0.40 160
Year 5 400 100 400 0.60 240
Year 6 400 100 400 0.85 340
Year 7 400 100 400 1.00 400
Year 8 400 100 400 1.00 400
Year 9 400 100 400 1.00 400
Year 10 400 100 400 1.00 400
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No. trees per ha
Survival % Number surviving
Income per tree ($)
Total income per ha ($)
Year 1 625 75 469 0.30 $141
Year 2 469 90 422 0.30 $126
Year 3 422 95 400 0.30 $120
Year 4 400 100 400 0.40 160
Year 5 400 100 400 0.60 240
Year 6 400 100 400 0.85 340
Year 7 400 100 400 1.00 400
Year 8 400 100 400 1.00 400
Year 9 400 100 400 1.00 400
Year 10 400 100 400 1.00 400
If you want 10 million trees at year 4 then plant 15.6 million in year 1
(= 25,000 ha equivalents)(but may be spread over 200,000 ha
and 80,000 households)
Cost of establishmentYear 1 = $3,510,000Year 2 = $3,160,000Year 3 = $3,000,000
Total = $9,670,000To generate a 40,000 t oil per annum business
= $30 million per annum
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Village Nurseries
- Key to success of the venture, not well coordinated at present
- Need technical, financial and social aspects (partnership, joint accountability)
- Need different approaches (community, individual, associations)
- Need to document germplasm being used (origin, type, quantity)
- Need to maintain register of nurseries and activities
- Need to be clear on buy-back, research involvement, etc
- Need awareness raising of what use seedlings for (e.g. grafting)
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Nursery business
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Village Nurseries
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Vegetative Propagation
$10 is compensation not income
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Risks versus Returns
low medium high
low * *
medium *
high
R ISKS
RETURNS
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Average income per working day on crop
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Cocoa Palmoil Allanblackia Maize Tea
US
$