PRODUCING A PERFECT PV FLEET FORECAST
AT WHAT COST?
Richard Perez, ASRC
6th PV Performance Modeling WorkshopFreiburg, Germany
SolarAnywhere V4 --- NEW YORK – 24 HA
Deterministic metrics: MBE, MAE, RMSEFo
reca
st
Measure
Probabilistic metrics
P50P90
© R. Perez & et al.
Deterministic metrics: MBE, MAE, RMSE
Probabilistic metrics
“Perfect forecast” metric
SolarAnywhere V4 --- NEW YORK – 24 HA
Fore
cast
Measure
© R. Perez & et al.
SolarAnywhere V4 --- NEW YORK – 24 HA
Fore
cast
Measure
PV Fleets
Load forecasts
© R. Perez & et al.
One year of data
SolarAnywhere V4Cloud motion vectorGFSNDFDECMWFHRRR
Validation
Single point : SURFARD
Extended area: Satellite
RMSE
© R. Perez & et al.
Single point2X2 (~Size of Massachusetts) 4X4 (~ size of New York) 7x7 (~ size of California)
Bondville
RESULTS
Hour-ahead
© R. Perez & et al.
Bondville
Desert Rock
RESULTS
Day-ahead
Single point2X2 (~ size of Massachusetts)4X4 (~ size of New York) 7x7 (~ size of California)
© R. Perez & et al.
Desert Rock
RESULTS
Single point2X2 (~Size of Massachusetts) 4X4 (~ size of New York) 7x7 (~ size of California)
Hour-ahead
© R. Perez & et al.
Desert Rock
RESULTS
Day-ahead
Single point2X2 (~ size of Massachusetts)4X4 (~ size of New York) 7x7 (~ size of California)
© R. Perez & et al.
BONDVILLE HOUR-AHEAD 4x4 REGION (~ New York State)
SOLARANYWHERE UNDERLYING MODELS
BONDVILLE DAY-AHEAD 4x4 REGION (~ New York State)
© R. Perez & et al.
HIGH PV PENETRATION PARADIGM
STORAGE
LOAD SHAPINGCURTAILMENT
GEOGRAPHIC DISPERSION
Cost of a perfect forecast?
© R. Perez & et al.
Perfect forecast operations
Hanford
Desert Rock
Goodwin Creek
Penn State
Bondville
Sioux Falls
Boulder
Fort Peck
NSRDB
© Perez et al.V1 V2 V3 V4
HISTORICAL DATA REAL TIME FORECAST
1998 6 days ahead
V1 V2 V3 V4
Solar Energy Forecast Validation for Extended Areas
Economic Impact of Forecast Accuracy
HISTORICAL DATA REAL TIME FORECAST
Cloud motion NDFD
GLOBAL SCALE MODELS• NCEP GFS• ECMWFCONTINENTAL SCALE MODELS• NAMHIGH RESOLUTION ASSIMILATION MODELS• RAP• HRRR
Operational NWP models
1998 6 days ahead