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Preparing for the New Reality
Francis (Frank) F. Busta, DirectorNational Center for Food Protection and Defense
AFDOPre-Conference Food Defense Workshop
Albany, New York17 June 2006
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Preparing for the New RealityFrancis (Frank) F. Busta,
and many colleagues at theNational Center for
Food Protection and Defense
Office: University of Minnesota - Twin Cities Campus 200 Dinnaken Office Building925 Delaware Avenue S.E., Minneapolis, MN 55455 USAPhone (612) 624-2458; Fax (612) 624-2157
http://www.ncfpd.umn.edu
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Preaching to the AFDO Choir
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Current Events & ContextAvian influenza spreading rapidlyPandemic human influenza concerns mountingNation’s capability to respond to natural disasters challenged by KatrinaIncreased “chatter” on terrorism threatsHealth care crisis loomingBudget deficits mountingWhy are we worried about food defense?
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The Consumer Assumes A Safe and Plentiful Food Supply
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U.S. Agriculture U.S. Agriculture -- a National Resourcea National Resource
Source: Agricultural Statistics Board (National Agricultural Statistics Service)
Value Toward GDP$1.24 Trillionor12.3% of GDP
Direct and Related Employment 16.7% or 1 in 6 Jobs
Largest in the world
Highly concentrated – Efficient but poses new risksVast transportation systems – spread disease rapidly, highly
dependent upon other infrastructures: energy, water, transportation, etc.
Increased regional, national and international travel, tourism & trade – multiplies risks
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Today we have heard about:Vulnerability & Risk AssessmentBiosurveillance & Consumer Complaints MonitoringDHS National CommunicationsAwareness InitiativesProtecting the InfrastructureFood Defense Strategies in IndustryFood Emergency Response PlanningCrisis Management & Recovery Planning
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Principles of DeliveryThe delivery of that food supply is highly dependent on the many facets of the food system and supply chainNo longer a simple system
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Fresh-cut lettuce distribution chain
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Lettuce/romaine distribution chain
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Imported Foods$58.5 billion in ag imports
143,391 foreign facilities registered
Only ~ 3% of imported food is inspected at the border
Borders are porous
Over 90% of green onions and up Over 90% of green onions and up to 60% of cucumbers sold in the to 60% of cucumbers sold in the
United States were from Mexico in United States were from Mexico in 20012001 Mexican trucks make about 4.5 million Mexican trucks make about 4.5 million
border crossings each year, according to border crossings each year, according to US government figures. DOT 6US government figures. DOT 6--2424--0505
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Where is this?USA? PERU?
MEXICO? CHILE?
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Where is this?USA? PERU?
MEXICO? CHILE?
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Supply Chain Complexity
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Intelligence on Food Terrorism
Documents Seized in Afghanistan (Tarnak Farms)
Indicate Interest
“Terrorist groups have a lesser interest in biological materials and are most interested in chemicals such as cyanide salts to contaminate food and water supplies”
CIA Testimony to Congress 2002
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Organizations and ClienteleGovernment
InternationalNationalState CountyLocal
IndustryAcademicIndependent Consultant
AgenciesDepartmentsProducersManufacturersDistributorsRetailersRestaurateursInstitutionsConsumers
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Principles & Perception
Food QualityFood SafetyFood Defense Food Protection
Animal ProtectionCrop Protection
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Principles & Perception
Systems thinking is imperativePrinciples are fundamentally sameMust recognize
similarities & differences
Food QualityFood SafetyFood Defense Food Protection
Animal ProtectionCrop Protection
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Principles & Perception
Symmetrical vs.
Asymmetrical
Food QualityFood SafetyFood Defense Food Protection
Animal ProtectionCrop Protection
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Principles & Perception
System failurevs.
System attack
Food QualityFood SafetyFood Defense Food Protection
Animal ProtectionCrop Protection
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Magnitude of ImpactHarassment
Hoax MORBIDITY &Tampering MORTALITY
IllnessesDeaths
DisasterECONOMIC Catastrophe
Pandemic
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“Mother Nature”Disgruntled employeesViolent activist groupsCriminals/subversivesInternational/government supported or
directed groups or individuals [terrorists]
The Problem: Challenges Come in Various Forms
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The Problem: Challenges of a Food Situation
Food supply system is extremely complexGlobal challenge acknowledgedFood as a desirable terrorist vehicleIntentional vs. accidental contaminationNew paradigm for threats to food safety
and defense management
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The Problem: Multiple Food System Vulnerabilities
Opportunities for contaminant accessLack of subsequent adequate inactivation treatment Large volume and/or maximum mixingProduct environment for agent growth/preservationRapid distribution to consumersRapid consumption by consumersDisproportionate consumption by “high risk populations”
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Public HealthReal vs. perceived vs. precautionaryBusiness survivalCommunity survival
The Problem:Setting Priorities
Among the Solutions
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Types of information, reports, situationsTypes of agents Concentration of agentsChoice of targetsScale/number of targets Recognition of illness, cause, response
The Problem:e.g.; Differentiating “Normal”from Intentional Contamination
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Much effort has been or is being put into planning for protection, detection, containment, and decontamination of intentional and/or natural contamination of food/ag production facilities.
What has not been done is to plan for dealing with the 2nd, 3rd and 4th order effects of such an event.
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This applies to:•traditional natural/accidental contamination
by pathogens/pesticides/allergens•intentional contamination at lethal or
injurious levels by select agents•intentional contamination at incidental
harmless levels by select agents•diseases in plants or animals
that have little or no human consequences
We have not addressed the 2nd, 3rd and 4th order effects of such events.
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e.g., 2nd Order EffectsThe primary production component of the industryThe wholesale, distribution and retail componentsThe subsequent employment impact
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e.g., 3rd Order EffectsThe financial and insurance sectorsThe cross infrastructure impact (such as with transportation sector)
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e.g., 4th Order EffectsThe loss of tax revenue at the
local and state levelsThe overall cost to government
of the responseThe social disruption effects(these may range from local movement restrictions as the event is dealt with on farms or along the supply chain, loss of commodities to the market and potential disrupted delivery of a wide range of products and services to broader public panic)
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Trajectory of Effects
OrderFirstSecondThirdFourth
IndividualGroupCompanyIndustryPopulationCommunityGovernment
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A Solution
Defending the safetyof the
food systemthrough research and education
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National Center for Food Protection and Defense
A Department of Homeland Security Center of Excellence
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NCFPD - Vision
Defending the safetyof the
food systemthrough research and education
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A Solution –Universal principles to reduce potential
Preparation for variety of challenges from routine to catastrophic
Rendering systems resistant to potential problemsRapidly and accurately detecting problemsResponding effectively to minimize consequencesRapid delivery of effective recovery effortsTraining
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Food Defense Strategies
Reduce the potential for catastrophic events by:
Rendering targets unattractiveRapidly and accurately detecting attacksResponding effectively to minimize consequencesRapid delivery of effective recovery effortsTraining new scientists and professionals
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Food Defense Strategies
Rendering targets unattractiveMultiple barriers to effective contamination
Guns, gates and guards“Hardened” processes
Minimizing impact of an effective contaminationAgent inactivation via processing or formulationVaccines/anti-virals/probiotics
KEY: Where to focus interventions
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Food Defense StrategiesRapidly and accurately detecting attacksReal time detection of contaminants in food
Detect to preventDetect to protectDetect to recover
KEY: Detection strategies that meet the speed, sensitivity and specificity needs of the situation
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National Center for Food Protection and Defense
A Department of Homeland Security Center of Excellence
Who are we?Who are we?
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Broad Academic Collaboration
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Diverse Industry and Association Collaboration
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Collaborating Across Agencies
State/Local Agencies
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System Focus
Agent Focus
Training Focus
• Supply Chain Resiliency• Public Health Response• Economic Models For Evaluating Interventions
• Rapid detection• Decontamination• Inactivation• Disposal
• Disseminating NCFPD products• Training scholars and professionals• Risk communication
NCFPD Primary Themes
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System Focus
Agent Focus
Training Focus
• Supply Chain
NCFPD Primary Themes
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System Focus
Agent Focus
Training Focus
• Public Health
NCFPD Primary Themes
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System Focus
Agent Focus
Training Focus
• Economics
NCFPD Primary Themes
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System Focus
Agent Focus
Training Focus
NCFPD Primary Themes
• Detection
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System Focus
Agent Focus
Training Focus
NCFPD Primary Themes
• Inactivation
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System Focus
Agent Focus
Training Focus
NCFPD Primary Themes
• Decontamination
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System Focus
Agent Focus
Training Focus
NCFPD Primary Themes
•Education
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System Focus
Agent Focus
Training Focus
NCFPD Primary Themes
•Risk Communication
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Systems thinking through complexity, change, consequences
Plan & organize team actionsDiscover & document trendsCreate & relate explanationsApply system archetypesApply modified/adjusted plansIdentify higher levels of interventionIdentify unintended consequences
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Defending the safetyof the
food systemthrough research and education
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Take-Home Message- - - - - - - - - - - - -
Check your own situationAre you prepared, ready to respond, capable of recovery?Assess / minimize your vulnerabilities!Consider an all-hazards approach [quality to pandemic]!Insist on a systems approach [failure vs. attack]!Understand the product, process, distribution, consumer, responsible agencies, and all associated characteristics!
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“Fighting terrorism is like being a goalkeeper. You can make a hundred brilliant saves but the one shot that people remember is the one that gets past you.”
Paul Wilkinson, Daily Telegraph, London, 9/ 1/ 92Paul Wilkinson, Daily Telegraph, London, 9/ 1/ 92
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National Center for Food Protection and Defense
A Homeland Security Center of ExcellenceFrancis (Frank) F. Busta, Director
Shaun P. Kennedy, Deputy DirectorMichael T. Osterholm, Associate DirectorUniversity of Minnesota - Twin Cities Campus
Office: 200 Dinnaken Office Building925 Delaware Avenue S.E., Minneapolis, MN 55455 USA
Phone (612) 624-2458; Fax (612) 624-2157 http://www.ncfpd.umn.edu