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Preliminary Simulation of Typhoon Rananim with AREM
Rucong Yu, Rui Cheng, Youping Xu
Chengzhi Ye, and Aihua Xu
LASG, IAP, CAS
Jun. 1, 2005
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CONTENTS
Brief Overview of Typhoon Rananim
Experimental Design
Model Verification
Summary and Conclusions
Observational Features
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I. Brief Overview of Typhoon Rananim
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Landfall in Zhejiang occurred at 1200UTC on Aug. 12, 2004
Although early detection of Typhoon Rananim cut losses to a minimum , It ravaged the Chinese eastern provinces. Confirmed by meteorological authorities to be the worst typhoon to hit China since 1956. “Rananim” won’t be used to name typhoon in future and as the specified name of Typhoon NO. 14 last year.
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Affecting the lives of 18.18 million people, the strong winds and torrential rain caused more than 21.04 billion Yuan (U.S. $2.53 billion) in direct economic losses.
Demolishing 212,600 homes and damaged reservoirs and power communication facilities.
The death toll was at 183, while about 500,000 were evacuated from their home.
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A Chinese family was drenched by the storm in the city of HangZhou, August, 12, 2004.
Two men try to prevent a tricycle from being blown away by a gale in Wenzhou, Zhejiang, on August 12, 2004.
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At 12 UTC, 08AUG2004, originating from tropical disturbance at the ocean surface in the east of Philippines
At 18 UTC, 10AUG2004, intensified to Typhoon Rananim
At 12 UTC, 12AUG2004, landfall over Zhejiang Province and moving westward
At 03 UTC, 13AUG2004, weakening to tropical storm
At 09 UTC, 13AUG2004, reducing still to depression
Evolution Stages
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Minimum SLP, 950 hPa
Maximum wind, 58.7 m/s
Strong small eye storm, its diameter approximates to 45km
Precipitation, 874.7mm/24h; 600mm/12h
Strong echo appearing at the levels between 3 and 6km, not very high
Large affected area
Basic FeaturesA
t the lan
dfall
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II. Observational Features
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Data used:Typhoon Rananim’s Warning Report
Intensive surface observations
NCEP Analysis Data
Conventional observations
IR-Cloud images and TBB Data of Goes-9
Doppler Radar images
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Track of Rananim (Provided by Zhejiang Meteorology Administration)
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Precipitation by Rananim (Provided by Zhejiang Meteorology Administration)
00000000 UTC, 12~ 00000000 UTC, 13
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Radial velocity from Doppler Radar at Wenzhou
Averaged echo height from Doppler Radar at Ningbo
Vertical slice of Radar echo
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III. Experimental Design
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AREM Overview
• Advanced Regional Eta-coordinate Model• Dynamic core, fully energy-conservative time-space difference• Vertical coordinate, η, Horizontally spaced in Arakawa E-grid• Moisture transportation, Two-step Shape Preserving Advection Scheme (TSPA
S)• Initialization, De-grib NCEP analyses, or Cressman Iteration• Physical processes, simple but practical• Model mesh, nested• Used to forecast heavy rainfall operationally, to perform typhoon, environment
al simulations etc. • Good performance in simulating and forecasting Chinese torrential rainfall
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Domain Mesh A Mesh B
Area coverageX: 85E150EY: 5N60N
Z: surface10 hPa
X: 111E131EY: 16N36N
Z: surface10 hPa
Dimensions(grid numbers)
13122132 12124132
Grid size (km) ~37km ~12km
Time step (s) 225s 90s
Integration hours1200 UTC on 11th
0000 UTC on 14th1200 UTC on 11th
0000 UTC on 14th
Initial conditions NCEP Analysis (1°×1°), Without Bogus
Physical processesBetts-Miller C.P., non-local PBL, Warm-cloud M.P. , Weekly SST
Experimental Design and Initial Conditions
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Synoptic fields Mesh A
Storm-scale fields Mesh B
Model Verification
IV.
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obv
fct
18Z11Aug2004 00Z12Aug2004 06Z12Aug2004
a) Synoptic fields (Mesh A)
Height (colored) and temperature (black) on 500 hPa
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obv
fct
18Z11Aug2004 00Z12Aug2004 06Z12Aug2004
a) Synoptic fields (Mesh A)
Rel. Hum. (colored) and stream (black) on 700 hPa
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obv
fct
18Z11Aug2004 00Z12Aug2004 06Z12Aug2004
a) Synoptic fields (Mesh A)
Total moisture flux divergence and stream on 700 hPa
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b) Storm-scale fields (Mesh B)
0300 UTC 12AUG2004
0400 UTC 12AUG2004
0500 UTC 12AUG2004
Infrared Satellite images (lower) and a top view of the simulated hydrometeors (upper), as determined by the 0.1g/kg surfaces
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b) Storm-scale fields (Mesh B)
0600 UTC 12AUG2004
0700 UTC 12AUG2004
0800 UTC 12AUG2004
Infra Satellite images (lower) and a top view of the simulated hydrometeors (upper), as determined by the 0.1g/kg surfaces
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TBB of GOES-9 (upper, C) and simulation (lower, C)
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b) Storm-scale fields (Mesh B)
Streamline on 700 hPa and Precipitation Rate (mm/h)
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1113
1209
1117 1121
1201 1205
A 3-D view of constant surface of equivalent potential temperature
=346K e
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Hydrometeors (shaded, kg/kg) and vertical velocity (black, hPa/s), longitudinal and latitudinal slice near the core
b) Storm-scale fields (Mesh B)
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Pseudo-equivalent potential temperature (K),
vertical slice near the core
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Observed and simulated rainfall (mm) from 1200 UTC 11AUG2004 to 1200 UTC 12AUG2004
obv. mesh A mesh B
B B
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Evolution of daily rainfall (mm)
observed
simulated
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12Z11
18Z11
00Z12
06Z12
12Z12
Track of Typhoon Rananim
Red: observed
Blue: simulated (~12km)
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Evolution of SLP (hPa)
Evolution of traveling speed (km/h)
Red: observed
Blue: simulated (12km)
~20 hPa
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V. Summary and Conclusions
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1 AREM simulates Typhoon well,1 AREM simulates Typhoon well,
2 Reasonable multiple structures of Typhoon 2 Reasonable multiple structures of Typhoon obtained, obtained,
3 Further studies mainly focus on, with some problems3 Further studies mainly focus on, with some problems
Track, thermodynamic structures, landfall time and location, and evolution
Environmental background, eye, eye-wall, and spiral rain bands
sensitivity experiments, incorporation of Bogus scheme into AREM
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Thank you!Welcome comments and advice!Welcome comments and advice!