![Page 1: Predictive Modeling; RNN, Cognitive Computing; Text Analyticspkalra/siv895/aadhar.pdf · Cognitive Computing Mimics certain aspects of Cognition Learns from data how to predict. Relies](https://reader034.vdocuments.mx/reader034/viewer/2022050410/5f86fbb5a6fab710db2fa4e4/html5/thumbnails/1.jpg)
Predictive Modeling; RNN, Cognitive Computing; Text
Analytics
Gur Saran Adhar Hon. Visiting Professor DEI
Professor, Univ. Of North Carolina Wilmington, US
![Page 2: Predictive Modeling; RNN, Cognitive Computing; Text Analyticspkalra/siv895/aadhar.pdf · Cognitive Computing Mimics certain aspects of Cognition Learns from data how to predict. Relies](https://reader034.vdocuments.mx/reader034/viewer/2022050410/5f86fbb5a6fab710db2fa4e4/html5/thumbnails/2.jpg)
Just for example:
1. Topredictifthecellsobservedunderthemicroscopeindicateamalignantorabenigntumor(levelofconfidence)?
2. Giventhewinddirec?on,pressure,humidity,andtemperatureschangesoverSouth-EastUS,predicttheland-fallofanincominghurricane(levelofconfidence).
3. GiventhehistoryofbaGngperformancebyIndianCricketteam,onsoKwicket,predicthowwillIndianteamperforminNatal,SouthAfrica.
4. Giventhepaymenthistoryofaclient,predicttheriskassociatedwithhisloanrequest.
![Page 3: Predictive Modeling; RNN, Cognitive Computing; Text Analyticspkalra/siv895/aadhar.pdf · Cognitive Computing Mimics certain aspects of Cognition Learns from data how to predict. Relies](https://reader034.vdocuments.mx/reader034/viewer/2022050410/5f86fbb5a6fab710db2fa4e4/html5/thumbnails/3.jpg)
To evaluate a Predictive Model
MetricsforPerformanceEvalua?on• Limita?onsofAccuracyasPerformanceEvalua?on• OvercomingLimita?onsofAccuracyMeasure
Precision,Sensi0vity,Specificity
![Page 4: Predictive Modeling; RNN, Cognitive Computing; Text Analyticspkalra/siv895/aadhar.pdf · Cognitive Computing Mimics certain aspects of Cognition Learns from data how to predict. Relies](https://reader034.vdocuments.mx/reader034/viewer/2022050410/5f86fbb5a6fab710db2fa4e4/html5/thumbnails/4.jpg)
Example: Predicting a (malignant) tumor from lab test TP(TruePosi?ve):Predic?onthatitismalignanttumorisconsistentwithwhatisdiscoveredwithsurgery.
TN(TrueNega?ve):Predic?onthatisitnotmalignant(benign)isconsistentwithwhatisdiscoveredwithsurgery.
FP(FalsePosi?ve):Predic?onthatthetumorismalignanttumorhoweveritturnsouttobebenigninsurgery.(cost…?Needlesssurgery)
FN(FalseNega?ve):Predic?onthatthetumorisnotmalignantbutisindeedmalignant(cost…?Lifethreatening)
![Page 5: Predictive Modeling; RNN, Cognitive Computing; Text Analyticspkalra/siv895/aadhar.pdf · Cognitive Computing Mimics certain aspects of Cognition Learns from data how to predict. Relies](https://reader034.vdocuments.mx/reader034/viewer/2022050410/5f86fbb5a6fab710db2fa4e4/html5/thumbnails/5.jpg)
Accuracy as a measure
![Page 6: Predictive Modeling; RNN, Cognitive Computing; Text Analyticspkalra/siv895/aadhar.pdf · Cognitive Computing Mimics certain aspects of Cognition Learns from data how to predict. Relies](https://reader034.vdocuments.mx/reader034/viewer/2022050410/5f86fbb5a6fab710db2fa4e4/html5/thumbnails/6.jpg)
Evaluating the Predictive Model Inotherwordshowgoodisourpredic?on?AccuracyasEvalua?ontoolSitua?on:Posi?vecases990;Nega?ve10IfmodelpredictseverythingtobePosi?ve,accuracyis99%BUT:Modelfailsonnega?vecases.Whatifnega?vecasesarereallyimportantandcostlytooverlook?Forexample,predic?ngtumorsasbenignwhenitisindeedmalignant.Orwhenpredic?ngitismalignantwhenitisindeedbenign.
![Page 7: Predictive Modeling; RNN, Cognitive Computing; Text Analyticspkalra/siv895/aadhar.pdf · Cognitive Computing Mimics certain aspects of Cognition Learns from data how to predict. Relies](https://reader034.vdocuments.mx/reader034/viewer/2022050410/5f86fbb5a6fab710db2fa4e4/html5/thumbnails/7.jpg)
Precision, Sensitivity, Specificity as a measure
Precision=TP/(TP+FP)Sensi?vity=TP/(TP+FN)Specificity=TN/(TN+FP)
![Page 8: Predictive Modeling; RNN, Cognitive Computing; Text Analyticspkalra/siv895/aadhar.pdf · Cognitive Computing Mimics certain aspects of Cognition Learns from data how to predict. Relies](https://reader034.vdocuments.mx/reader034/viewer/2022050410/5f86fbb5a6fab710db2fa4e4/html5/thumbnails/8.jpg)
A bit on Modeling techniques
![Page 9: Predictive Modeling; RNN, Cognitive Computing; Text Analyticspkalra/siv895/aadhar.pdf · Cognitive Computing Mimics certain aspects of Cognition Learns from data how to predict. Relies](https://reader034.vdocuments.mx/reader034/viewer/2022050410/5f86fbb5a6fab710db2fa4e4/html5/thumbnails/9.jpg)
Common Modeling techniques for Prediction • SupervisedLearning
Describesanddis?nguishesclassesforfuturepredic?on(onfuturedata)basedontrainingdata.Commonmethods:Decisiontrees,Regression,NearestNeighbors,Neuralnetworks
• UnsupervisedLearningAnalyzesdatawherelabelsareunknowntocreategroupsorclassesforobjectsthataresimilartoeachother(withinthegroup)butaredissimilartoobjectsin othergroups(clusters).ClusterAnalysisCommonmethods:K-means,Hierarchical
![Page 10: Predictive Modeling; RNN, Cognitive Computing; Text Analyticspkalra/siv895/aadhar.pdf · Cognitive Computing Mimics certain aspects of Cognition Learns from data how to predict. Relies](https://reader034.vdocuments.mx/reader034/viewer/2022050410/5f86fbb5a6fab710db2fa4e4/html5/thumbnails/10.jpg)
SupervisedLearningTechnique–abitmoredetails
Classifica?onConstructsaclassifica?onmodelbasedontrainingset,andusesitforclassifyingnewdata.Forexample,classifica?onofcellsina?ssue.
Predic?onPredic?ngClasslabels.Forexampleifthe?ssuesamplehasamalignanttumorcells.Modelscon?nuousvariablesandpredictsunknownormissingvalues
Commonmethods:Decisiontrees;Regression;NearestNeighbors;Neuralnetworks.
![Page 11: Predictive Modeling; RNN, Cognitive Computing; Text Analyticspkalra/siv895/aadhar.pdf · Cognitive Computing Mimics certain aspects of Cognition Learns from data how to predict. Relies](https://reader034.vdocuments.mx/reader034/viewer/2022050410/5f86fbb5a6fab710db2fa4e4/html5/thumbnails/11.jpg)
…cont…Common Modeling techniques
Associa?onAnalyzingdataforeventsoninstancethatoccurtogether.
![Page 12: Predictive Modeling; RNN, Cognitive Computing; Text Analyticspkalra/siv895/aadhar.pdf · Cognitive Computing Mimics certain aspects of Cognition Learns from data how to predict. Relies](https://reader034.vdocuments.mx/reader034/viewer/2022050410/5f86fbb5a6fab710db2fa4e4/html5/thumbnails/12.jpg)
SamplingDatainclassifica0on
SimpleSamplesNotappropriateforunbalanceddata(e.g.,1000posi?veand100nega?vecases)
ComplexSamplesClusteredsamples:usedtosamplegroupsorclustersratherthanindividualunits.
Stra?fiedSamples:usedtoselectsamplesindependentlywithinno-overlappingsubgroupsofthepopula?on.Forexample,takeasamplewhichrepresentseverysocio-economicgroupinanunbanpopula?on.Forexample,MenandWomenaresampledinequalpropor?on.
![Page 13: Predictive Modeling; RNN, Cognitive Computing; Text Analyticspkalra/siv895/aadhar.pdf · Cognitive Computing Mimics certain aspects of Cognition Learns from data how to predict. Relies](https://reader034.vdocuments.mx/reader034/viewer/2022050410/5f86fbb5a6fab710db2fa4e4/html5/thumbnails/13.jpg)
Classifica0on–Trainingandtes0ng
SpliGngthedataintoTrainingandtes?ngApproximately66-75%fortrainingand34-25%fortes?ngTrainingtheModelOnthedatawithexis?ngclassesTes?ngtheModelOnthedatathatwasnotusedfortrainingEvalua?ngthemodel-Comparingtheaccuracyofthemodelontrainingandtes?ngsets
UsingtheModel-Classifyingfutureonunknownobjects
![Page 14: Predictive Modeling; RNN, Cognitive Computing; Text Analyticspkalra/siv895/aadhar.pdf · Cognitive Computing Mimics certain aspects of Cognition Learns from data how to predict. Relies](https://reader034.vdocuments.mx/reader034/viewer/2022050410/5f86fbb5a6fab710db2fa4e4/html5/thumbnails/14.jpg)
UnsupervisedLearning–abitmore
UnsupervisedLearningAnalyzesdatawherelabelsareunknowntocreategroups/classesforobjectsthataresimilartoeachother(withinthegroup)butdissimilartoobjectsinotherclusters.
ClusterAnalysis(example:classifica?onofcellsintoplantcells;andskincellsbasedonmorphology)
CommonMethods:K-mean;Hierarchical;two-step
![Page 15: Predictive Modeling; RNN, Cognitive Computing; Text Analyticspkalra/siv895/aadhar.pdf · Cognitive Computing Mimics certain aspects of Cognition Learns from data how to predict. Relies](https://reader034.vdocuments.mx/reader034/viewer/2022050410/5f86fbb5a6fab710db2fa4e4/html5/thumbnails/15.jpg)
WhatisaNeuralNetwork
![Page 16: Predictive Modeling; RNN, Cognitive Computing; Text Analyticspkalra/siv895/aadhar.pdf · Cognitive Computing Mimics certain aspects of Cognition Learns from data how to predict. Relies](https://reader034.vdocuments.mx/reader034/viewer/2022050410/5f86fbb5a6fab710db2fa4e4/html5/thumbnails/16.jpg)
![Page 17: Predictive Modeling; RNN, Cognitive Computing; Text Analyticspkalra/siv895/aadhar.pdf · Cognitive Computing Mimics certain aspects of Cognition Learns from data how to predict. Relies](https://reader034.vdocuments.mx/reader034/viewer/2022050410/5f86fbb5a6fab710db2fa4e4/html5/thumbnails/17.jpg)
![Page 18: Predictive Modeling; RNN, Cognitive Computing; Text Analyticspkalra/siv895/aadhar.pdf · Cognitive Computing Mimics certain aspects of Cognition Learns from data how to predict. Relies](https://reader034.vdocuments.mx/reader034/viewer/2022050410/5f86fbb5a6fab710db2fa4e4/html5/thumbnails/18.jpg)
PopularNeuralNetworks
![Page 19: Predictive Modeling; RNN, Cognitive Computing; Text Analyticspkalra/siv895/aadhar.pdf · Cognitive Computing Mimics certain aspects of Cognition Learns from data how to predict. Relies](https://reader034.vdocuments.mx/reader034/viewer/2022050410/5f86fbb5a6fab710db2fa4e4/html5/thumbnails/19.jpg)
RNN(recurrentneuralnetworks)
![Page 20: Predictive Modeling; RNN, Cognitive Computing; Text Analyticspkalra/siv895/aadhar.pdf · Cognitive Computing Mimics certain aspects of Cognition Learns from data how to predict. Relies](https://reader034.vdocuments.mx/reader034/viewer/2022050410/5f86fbb5a6fab710db2fa4e4/html5/thumbnails/20.jpg)
Whatissequencelearning?
Forexample,autocompletefeatureofGoogle,predic?ngthenextword,phrase.
![Page 21: Predictive Modeling; RNN, Cognitive Computing; Text Analyticspkalra/siv895/aadhar.pdf · Cognitive Computing Mimics certain aspects of Cognition Learns from data how to predict. Relies](https://reader034.vdocuments.mx/reader034/viewer/2022050410/5f86fbb5a6fab710db2fa4e4/html5/thumbnails/21.jpg)
![Page 22: Predictive Modeling; RNN, Cognitive Computing; Text Analyticspkalra/siv895/aadhar.pdf · Cognitive Computing Mimics certain aspects of Cognition Learns from data how to predict. Relies](https://reader034.vdocuments.mx/reader034/viewer/2022050410/5f86fbb5a6fab710db2fa4e4/html5/thumbnails/22.jpg)
RecurrentNeuralNetwork
IsatypeofAr?ficialNeuralNetworkdesignedtorecognizepajernsinsequenceofdatasuchastext,genome,handwri?ng,thespokenword,ornumerical?meseriesdataemana?ngforexamplefrom,sensors,stockmarkets
![Page 23: Predictive Modeling; RNN, Cognitive Computing; Text Analyticspkalra/siv895/aadhar.pdf · Cognitive Computing Mimics certain aspects of Cognition Learns from data how to predict. Relies](https://reader034.vdocuments.mx/reader034/viewer/2022050410/5f86fbb5a6fab710db2fa4e4/html5/thumbnails/23.jpg)
![Page 24: Predictive Modeling; RNN, Cognitive Computing; Text Analyticspkalra/siv895/aadhar.pdf · Cognitive Computing Mimics certain aspects of Cognition Learns from data how to predict. Relies](https://reader034.vdocuments.mx/reader034/viewer/2022050410/5f86fbb5a6fab710db2fa4e4/html5/thumbnails/24.jpg)
WhatisRNN?
![Page 25: Predictive Modeling; RNN, Cognitive Computing; Text Analyticspkalra/siv895/aadhar.pdf · Cognitive Computing Mimics certain aspects of Cognition Learns from data how to predict. Relies](https://reader034.vdocuments.mx/reader034/viewer/2022050410/5f86fbb5a6fab710db2fa4e4/html5/thumbnails/25.jpg)
RNN
![Page 26: Predictive Modeling; RNN, Cognitive Computing; Text Analyticspkalra/siv895/aadhar.pdf · Cognitive Computing Mimics certain aspects of Cognition Learns from data how to predict. Relies](https://reader034.vdocuments.mx/reader034/viewer/2022050410/5f86fbb5a6fab710db2fa4e4/html5/thumbnails/26.jpg)
TrainingRNN
UsesBackpropaga?onalgorithmfortraining,butitisappliedforevery?mestamp,commonlycalledBackpropaga?onthru?me(BTT)
![Page 27: Predictive Modeling; RNN, Cognitive Computing; Text Analyticspkalra/siv895/aadhar.pdf · Cognitive Computing Mimics certain aspects of Cognition Learns from data how to predict. Relies](https://reader034.vdocuments.mx/reader034/viewer/2022050410/5f86fbb5a6fab710db2fa4e4/html5/thumbnails/27.jpg)
IssueswithBackpropaga?on
VanishinggradientExplodinggradient
![Page 28: Predictive Modeling; RNN, Cognitive Computing; Text Analyticspkalra/siv895/aadhar.pdf · Cognitive Computing Mimics certain aspects of Cognition Learns from data how to predict. Relies](https://reader034.vdocuments.mx/reader034/viewer/2022050410/5f86fbb5a6fab710db2fa4e4/html5/thumbnails/28.jpg)
![Page 29: Predictive Modeling; RNN, Cognitive Computing; Text Analyticspkalra/siv895/aadhar.pdf · Cognitive Computing Mimics certain aspects of Cognition Learns from data how to predict. Relies](https://reader034.vdocuments.mx/reader034/viewer/2022050410/5f86fbb5a6fab710db2fa4e4/html5/thumbnails/29.jpg)
![Page 30: Predictive Modeling; RNN, Cognitive Computing; Text Analyticspkalra/siv895/aadhar.pdf · Cognitive Computing Mimics certain aspects of Cognition Learns from data how to predict. Relies](https://reader034.vdocuments.mx/reader034/viewer/2022050410/5f86fbb5a6fab710db2fa4e4/html5/thumbnails/30.jpg)
ProblemsinvolvingcontextLongtermdependenciesleadtogradientbecomingverysmall,orverylarge.Lossofinforma?onthru?me.Consequences:--Longtraining?me--Poorperformance--Badaccuracy
![Page 31: Predictive Modeling; RNN, Cognitive Computing; Text Analyticspkalra/siv895/aadhar.pdf · Cognitive Computing Mimics certain aspects of Cognition Learns from data how to predict. Relies](https://reader034.vdocuments.mx/reader034/viewer/2022050410/5f86fbb5a6fab710db2fa4e4/html5/thumbnails/31.jpg)
![Page 32: Predictive Modeling; RNN, Cognitive Computing; Text Analyticspkalra/siv895/aadhar.pdf · Cognitive Computing Mimics certain aspects of Cognition Learns from data how to predict. Relies](https://reader034.vdocuments.mx/reader034/viewer/2022050410/5f86fbb5a6fab710db2fa4e4/html5/thumbnails/32.jpg)
Overcomingthesechallenges
![Page 33: Predictive Modeling; RNN, Cognitive Computing; Text Analyticspkalra/siv895/aadhar.pdf · Cognitive Computing Mimics certain aspects of Cognition Learns from data how to predict. Relies](https://reader034.vdocuments.mx/reader034/viewer/2022050410/5f86fbb5a6fab710db2fa4e4/html5/thumbnails/33.jpg)
LSTM(longshort-termmemory)
![Page 34: Predictive Modeling; RNN, Cognitive Computing; Text Analyticspkalra/siv895/aadhar.pdf · Cognitive Computing Mimics certain aspects of Cognition Learns from data how to predict. Relies](https://reader034.vdocuments.mx/reader034/viewer/2022050410/5f86fbb5a6fab710db2fa4e4/html5/thumbnails/34.jpg)
![Page 35: Predictive Modeling; RNN, Cognitive Computing; Text Analyticspkalra/siv895/aadhar.pdf · Cognitive Computing Mimics certain aspects of Cognition Learns from data how to predict. Relies](https://reader034.vdocuments.mx/reader034/viewer/2022050410/5f86fbb5a6fab710db2fa4e4/html5/thumbnails/35.jpg)
![Page 36: Predictive Modeling; RNN, Cognitive Computing; Text Analyticspkalra/siv895/aadhar.pdf · Cognitive Computing Mimics certain aspects of Cognition Learns from data how to predict. Relies](https://reader034.vdocuments.mx/reader034/viewer/2022050410/5f86fbb5a6fab710db2fa4e4/html5/thumbnails/36.jpg)
![Page 37: Predictive Modeling; RNN, Cognitive Computing; Text Analyticspkalra/siv895/aadhar.pdf · Cognitive Computing Mimics certain aspects of Cognition Learns from data how to predict. Relies](https://reader034.vdocuments.mx/reader034/viewer/2022050410/5f86fbb5a6fab710db2fa4e4/html5/thumbnails/37.jpg)
![Page 38: Predictive Modeling; RNN, Cognitive Computing; Text Analyticspkalra/siv895/aadhar.pdf · Cognitive Computing Mimics certain aspects of Cognition Learns from data how to predict. Relies](https://reader034.vdocuments.mx/reader034/viewer/2022050410/5f86fbb5a6fab710db2fa4e4/html5/thumbnails/38.jpg)
![Page 39: Predictive Modeling; RNN, Cognitive Computing; Text Analyticspkalra/siv895/aadhar.pdf · Cognitive Computing Mimics certain aspects of Cognition Learns from data how to predict. Relies](https://reader034.vdocuments.mx/reader034/viewer/2022050410/5f86fbb5a6fab710db2fa4e4/html5/thumbnails/39.jpg)
![Page 40: Predictive Modeling; RNN, Cognitive Computing; Text Analyticspkalra/siv895/aadhar.pdf · Cognitive Computing Mimics certain aspects of Cognition Learns from data how to predict. Relies](https://reader034.vdocuments.mx/reader034/viewer/2022050410/5f86fbb5a6fab710db2fa4e4/html5/thumbnails/40.jpg)
Usecase
![Page 41: Predictive Modeling; RNN, Cognitive Computing; Text Analyticspkalra/siv895/aadhar.pdf · Cognitive Computing Mimics certain aspects of Cognition Learns from data how to predict. Relies](https://reader034.vdocuments.mx/reader034/viewer/2022050410/5f86fbb5a6fab710db2fa4e4/html5/thumbnails/41.jpg)
![Page 42: Predictive Modeling; RNN, Cognitive Computing; Text Analyticspkalra/siv895/aadhar.pdf · Cognitive Computing Mimics certain aspects of Cognition Learns from data how to predict. Relies](https://reader034.vdocuments.mx/reader034/viewer/2022050410/5f86fbb5a6fab710db2fa4e4/html5/thumbnails/42.jpg)
UseCase
![Page 43: Predictive Modeling; RNN, Cognitive Computing; Text Analyticspkalra/siv895/aadhar.pdf · Cognitive Computing Mimics certain aspects of Cognition Learns from data how to predict. Relies](https://reader034.vdocuments.mx/reader034/viewer/2022050410/5f86fbb5a6fab710db2fa4e4/html5/thumbnails/43.jpg)
ClusterAnalysis
![Page 44: Predictive Modeling; RNN, Cognitive Computing; Text Analyticspkalra/siv895/aadhar.pdf · Cognitive Computing Mimics certain aspects of Cognition Learns from data how to predict. Relies](https://reader034.vdocuments.mx/reader034/viewer/2022050410/5f86fbb5a6fab710db2fa4e4/html5/thumbnails/44.jpg)
Associa0on
Analyzingdataforeventsandinstancesthatoccurtogether.Forexample,peoplewhobuycoffeealsobuyacinnamontwist.Associa?onrules
![Page 45: Predictive Modeling; RNN, Cognitive Computing; Text Analyticspkalra/siv895/aadhar.pdf · Cognitive Computing Mimics certain aspects of Cognition Learns from data how to predict. Relies](https://reader034.vdocuments.mx/reader034/viewer/2022050410/5f86fbb5a6fab710db2fa4e4/html5/thumbnails/45.jpg)
Intro.ToDataMining
Whatcandataminingtell• Associa?onrules:Forexample,peoplewhobuycoffeealsobuyacinnamontwist.
• Classifica?on:Findingamodelthatdescribesdataandclassifiestoasetofcategories.Forexample,driverswithhighinsurancepremiumalsodrink.
• Segmenta?on:Groupingobjectsbysimilarity.Forexample,customersaregroupedintofamilieswithchildren,collegestudents,urbanemptynesters
![Page 46: Predictive Modeling; RNN, Cognitive Computing; Text Analyticspkalra/siv895/aadhar.pdf · Cognitive Computing Mimics certain aspects of Cognition Learns from data how to predict. Relies](https://reader034.vdocuments.mx/reader034/viewer/2022050410/5f86fbb5a6fab710db2fa4e4/html5/thumbnails/46.jpg)
Intro.ToDataMining
Processofdiscovering• Insights(descrip?ve,businessintelligence)• Pajerns• Rela?onships
![Page 47: Predictive Modeling; RNN, Cognitive Computing; Text Analyticspkalra/siv895/aadhar.pdf · Cognitive Computing Mimics certain aspects of Cognition Learns from data how to predict. Relies](https://reader034.vdocuments.mx/reader034/viewer/2022050410/5f86fbb5a6fab710db2fa4e4/html5/thumbnails/47.jpg)
Intro.ToDataMining
Whatknowledgecanbeextracted• Descrip?ve:whathashappenedandwhy.• Predic?ve:whatislikelytohappennext
![Page 48: Predictive Modeling; RNN, Cognitive Computing; Text Analyticspkalra/siv895/aadhar.pdf · Cognitive Computing Mimics certain aspects of Cognition Learns from data how to predict. Relies](https://reader034.vdocuments.mx/reader034/viewer/2022050410/5f86fbb5a6fab710db2fa4e4/html5/thumbnails/48.jpg)
DataMining+Predic0veModeling
DataMiningAlgorithms:Createpredic?vemodelsbyanalyzingdataautoma?callytolookforpajerns.
Predic?veModels:Containsthepajernsthathavebeenfound,andusethemtomakepredic?ons.
Examplepredic?ons:• Cancerdiagnosis• Creditriskscore• Legi?macyofTransac?on
![Page 49: Predictive Modeling; RNN, Cognitive Computing; Text Analyticspkalra/siv895/aadhar.pdf · Cognitive Computing Mimics certain aspects of Cognition Learns from data how to predict. Relies](https://reader034.vdocuments.mx/reader034/viewer/2022050410/5f86fbb5a6fab710db2fa4e4/html5/thumbnails/49.jpg)
Cognitive Computing- Watson Deep Analytics
![Page 50: Predictive Modeling; RNN, Cognitive Computing; Text Analyticspkalra/siv895/aadhar.pdf · Cognitive Computing Mimics certain aspects of Cognition Learns from data how to predict. Relies](https://reader034.vdocuments.mx/reader034/viewer/2022050410/5f86fbb5a6fab710db2fa4e4/html5/thumbnails/50.jpg)
Cognitive Computing
Mimics certain aspects of Cognition Learns from data how to predict. Relies on two main ideas: --Machine learning at the core to prediction (predictive modeling) --Natural language processing (computational linguistics)
![Page 51: Predictive Modeling; RNN, Cognitive Computing; Text Analyticspkalra/siv895/aadhar.pdf · Cognitive Computing Mimics certain aspects of Cognition Learns from data how to predict. Relies](https://reader034.vdocuments.mx/reader034/viewer/2022050410/5f86fbb5a6fab710db2fa4e4/html5/thumbnails/51.jpg)
Cognitive Computing
The way humans decide - Evidence based decisions, - Finds answers and insights locked in data Physician; Wealth Manager; Metallurgist - Put into context volume of (unstructured) information Enhance human expertise
![Page 52: Predictive Modeling; RNN, Cognitive Computing; Text Analyticspkalra/siv895/aadhar.pdf · Cognitive Computing Mimics certain aspects of Cognition Learns from data how to predict. Relies](https://reader034.vdocuments.mx/reader034/viewer/2022050410/5f86fbb5a6fab710db2fa4e4/html5/thumbnails/52.jpg)
Cognitive Computing
Mirrors some of the key elements of Human Cognitive Capabilities: 1. Observe: visible phenomenon and bodies of evidence 2. Interpret: and generate hypotheses 3. Evaluate: which hypotheses are right or wrong
(based on evidence). 4. Decide: Choosing the option with a level of confidence
![Page 53: Predictive Modeling; RNN, Cognitive Computing; Text Analyticspkalra/siv895/aadhar.pdf · Cognitive Computing Mimics certain aspects of Cognition Learns from data how to predict. Relies](https://reader034.vdocuments.mx/reader034/viewer/2022050410/5f86fbb5a6fab710db2fa4e4/html5/thumbnails/53.jpg)
How Watson works?
Watson becomes an expert by going thru similar four steps (processes) at tremendous speed and scale Unlike conventional computing which can handle structured information (Database) Watson can understand unstructured data, information by humans meant for other humans
![Page 54: Predictive Modeling; RNN, Cognitive Computing; Text Analyticspkalra/siv895/aadhar.pdf · Cognitive Computing Mimics certain aspects of Cognition Learns from data how to predict. Relies](https://reader034.vdocuments.mx/reader034/viewer/2022050410/5f86fbb5a6fab710db2fa4e4/html5/thumbnails/54.jpg)
Text- Analytics
Text-analytics applications extracts some kind of useful information from text. Literature, blogs, posts, articles, Wiki posts, tweets, images...
![Page 55: Predictive Modeling; RNN, Cognitive Computing; Text Analyticspkalra/siv895/aadhar.pdf · Cognitive Computing Mimics certain aspects of Cognition Learns from data how to predict. Relies](https://reader034.vdocuments.mx/reader034/viewer/2022050410/5f86fbb5a6fab710db2fa4e4/html5/thumbnails/55.jpg)
Text-Analytics begins with linguistic annotation Linguistic Annotation are notes about linguistic features of the annotated texts which gives information about the words and sentences of the text. For example, a part-of-speech tagger adds an annotation to a word to say that the word is a noun, a verb, or some other part of speech. Linguistic Annotation are used by subsequent applications. For example, text-to-speech application. The economy will contract next year. (verb) They will read the contract tomorrow. (noun) They read the contract yesterday.
![Page 56: Predictive Modeling; RNN, Cognitive Computing; Text Analyticspkalra/siv895/aadhar.pdf · Cognitive Computing Mimics certain aspects of Cognition Learns from data how to predict. Relies](https://reader034.vdocuments.mx/reader034/viewer/2022050410/5f86fbb5a6fab710db2fa4e4/html5/thumbnails/56.jpg)
What Annotation looks like
![Page 57: Predictive Modeling; RNN, Cognitive Computing; Text Analyticspkalra/siv895/aadhar.pdf · Cognitive Computing Mimics certain aspects of Cognition Learns from data how to predict. Relies](https://reader034.vdocuments.mx/reader034/viewer/2022050410/5f86fbb5a6fab710db2fa4e4/html5/thumbnails/57.jpg)
![Page 58: Predictive Modeling; RNN, Cognitive Computing; Text Analyticspkalra/siv895/aadhar.pdf · Cognitive Computing Mimics certain aspects of Cognition Learns from data how to predict. Relies](https://reader034.vdocuments.mx/reader034/viewer/2022050410/5f86fbb5a6fab710db2fa4e4/html5/thumbnails/58.jpg)
![Page 59: Predictive Modeling; RNN, Cognitive Computing; Text Analyticspkalra/siv895/aadhar.pdf · Cognitive Computing Mimics certain aspects of Cognition Learns from data how to predict. Relies](https://reader034.vdocuments.mx/reader034/viewer/2022050410/5f86fbb5a6fab710db2fa4e4/html5/thumbnails/59.jpg)
Example Application: Named entity recognition
Value of linguistic annotation is seen in applications such as named entity recognition, for example, people, job titles, company, URL’s phone numbers. The word general can be job title (noun) as in highest ranking general, but in the general opinion it is not a job title (adjective). If part-of-speech tagger has already added these annotations, named entity recognizer can improve its precision.
![Page 60: Predictive Modeling; RNN, Cognitive Computing; Text Analyticspkalra/siv895/aadhar.pdf · Cognitive Computing Mimics certain aspects of Cognition Learns from data how to predict. Relies](https://reader034.vdocuments.mx/reader034/viewer/2022050410/5f86fbb5a6fab710db2fa4e4/html5/thumbnails/60.jpg)
Example: Entity Extraction
• Company names • Dates and times • Domain-specific names such as names of diseases in
pharmaceutical data • Monetary amounts • People’s names and social network handles • Phrases, negative or positive • Product names
![Page 61: Predictive Modeling; RNN, Cognitive Computing; Text Analyticspkalra/siv895/aadhar.pdf · Cognitive Computing Mimics certain aspects of Cognition Learns from data how to predict. Relies](https://reader034.vdocuments.mx/reader034/viewer/2022050410/5f86fbb5a6fab710db2fa4e4/html5/thumbnails/61.jpg)
![Page 62: Predictive Modeling; RNN, Cognitive Computing; Text Analyticspkalra/siv895/aadhar.pdf · Cognitive Computing Mimics certain aspects of Cognition Learns from data how to predict. Relies](https://reader034.vdocuments.mx/reader034/viewer/2022050410/5f86fbb5a6fab710db2fa4e4/html5/thumbnails/62.jpg)
Example App. of Text Analytics: Sentiment Analysis
Sentiment analysis is the process of determining a sentiment score from text. Respond quickly to negative sentiment to minimize its impact. United Airlines. Product managers want to understand any problems with newly released products and services, so they can fix them quickly. GM Ignition switch problem. Finance departments to take customer sentiment into account when doing financial planning. Well Fargo.
![Page 63: Predictive Modeling; RNN, Cognitive Computing; Text Analyticspkalra/siv895/aadhar.pdf · Cognitive Computing Mimics certain aspects of Cognition Learns from data how to predict. Relies](https://reader034.vdocuments.mx/reader034/viewer/2022050410/5f86fbb5a6fab710db2fa4e4/html5/thumbnails/63.jpg)
Process of Text Analytics
Tokenizing the text—that is, breaking it down into words and phrases Detecting term boundaries Detecting sentence boundaries Tagging parts of speech—words such as nouns and verbs Tagging named entities so that they are identified—for example, a person, a company, a place, a gene, a disease, a product …
![Page 64: Predictive Modeling; RNN, Cognitive Computing; Text Analyticspkalra/siv895/aadhar.pdf · Cognitive Computing Mimics certain aspects of Cognition Learns from data how to predict. Relies](https://reader034.vdocuments.mx/reader034/viewer/2022050410/5f86fbb5a6fab710db2fa4e4/html5/thumbnails/64.jpg)
The Process of Text Analytics
Parsing—for example, extracting facts and entities from the tagged text Extracting knowledge to understand concepts such as a personal injury within an accident claim
![Page 65: Predictive Modeling; RNN, Cognitive Computing; Text Analyticspkalra/siv895/aadhar.pdf · Cognitive Computing Mimics certain aspects of Cognition Learns from data how to predict. Relies](https://reader034.vdocuments.mx/reader034/viewer/2022050410/5f86fbb5a6fab710db2fa4e4/html5/thumbnails/65.jpg)
Grammar based processing
![Page 66: Predictive Modeling; RNN, Cognitive Computing; Text Analyticspkalra/siv895/aadhar.pdf · Cognitive Computing Mimics certain aspects of Cognition Learns from data how to predict. Relies](https://reader034.vdocuments.mx/reader034/viewer/2022050410/5f86fbb5a6fab710db2fa4e4/html5/thumbnails/66.jpg)
![Page 67: Predictive Modeling; RNN, Cognitive Computing; Text Analyticspkalra/siv895/aadhar.pdf · Cognitive Computing Mimics certain aspects of Cognition Learns from data how to predict. Relies](https://reader034.vdocuments.mx/reader034/viewer/2022050410/5f86fbb5a6fab710db2fa4e4/html5/thumbnails/67.jpg)
Machine Learning Approach to Classification
1. Train a statistical model using examples which have already been correctly classified (recall supervised learning).
2. Test the trained model using similar number of examples which have been correctly classified but not used during training.
3. Deploy the trained and tested model to classify new cases to perform the NLP task for which model was developed.
Algorithms: Naive-Bayes classifier; Decision tree classifier; K nearest neighbor classifier; Maximum Entropy Classifier.
![Page 68: Predictive Modeling; RNN, Cognitive Computing; Text Analyticspkalra/siv895/aadhar.pdf · Cognitive Computing Mimics certain aspects of Cognition Learns from data how to predict. Relies](https://reader034.vdocuments.mx/reader034/viewer/2022050410/5f86fbb5a6fab710db2fa4e4/html5/thumbnails/68.jpg)
Text analytics understand text
Relies on Natural Language ● Governed by Rules of grammar ● Context, Culture ● Not just key word matches, but reads it by breaking down ● Structurally ● Grammatically ● Relationally
![Page 69: Predictive Modeling; RNN, Cognitive Computing; Text Analyticspkalra/siv895/aadhar.pdf · Cognitive Computing Mimics certain aspects of Cognition Learns from data how to predict. Relies](https://reader034.vdocuments.mx/reader034/viewer/2022050410/5f86fbb5a6fab710db2fa4e4/html5/thumbnails/69.jpg)
Text-Analytics is Deployed in Watson Inference Engine
Different than a simple speech recognition or iPhone Siri which converts human speech to set of sentences Watson extracts logical responses and draw inferences to potential answers relying on a broad range of linguistic models and algorithms
![Page 70: Predictive Modeling; RNN, Cognitive Computing; Text Analyticspkalra/siv895/aadhar.pdf · Cognitive Computing Mimics certain aspects of Cognition Learns from data how to predict. Relies](https://reader034.vdocuments.mx/reader034/viewer/2022050410/5f86fbb5a6fab710db2fa4e4/html5/thumbnails/70.jpg)
How Watson Learns?
For a domain ● Learn the language of the domain ● Terminology (jargon) ● Mode of thought of the domain
![Page 71: Predictive Modeling; RNN, Cognitive Computing; Text Analyticspkalra/siv895/aadhar.pdf · Cognitive Computing Mimics certain aspects of Cognition Learns from data how to predict. Relies](https://reader034.vdocuments.mx/reader034/viewer/2022050410/5f86fbb5a6fab710db2fa4e4/html5/thumbnails/71.jpg)
For Example: Cancer treatment
● Many types of cancer ● Each has symptoms ● Symptoms can be for patients not with cancer ● Side effects of treatments ● Factors affecting treatment ● Watson evaluates Standard Care Practices and thousands of pages of research
![Page 72: Predictive Modeling; RNN, Cognitive Computing; Text Analyticspkalra/siv895/aadhar.pdf · Cognitive Computing Mimics certain aspects of Cognition Learns from data how to predict. Relies](https://reader034.vdocuments.mx/reader034/viewer/2022050410/5f86fbb5a6fab710db2fa4e4/html5/thumbnails/72.jpg)
Curating the Content
Acquiring literacy in a field Loading corpus of knowledge in the field into Watson (with help from humans)
![Page 73: Predictive Modeling; RNN, Cognitive Computing; Text Analyticspkalra/siv895/aadhar.pdf · Cognitive Computing Mimics certain aspects of Cognition Learns from data how to predict. Relies](https://reader034.vdocuments.mx/reader034/viewer/2022050410/5f86fbb5a6fab710db2fa4e4/html5/thumbnails/73.jpg)
Ingestion
Pre-Processing to create indices and meta data (for efficiency). Knowledge graph to answer precise questions
![Page 74: Predictive Modeling; RNN, Cognitive Computing; Text Analyticspkalra/siv895/aadhar.pdf · Cognitive Computing Mimics certain aspects of Cognition Learns from data how to predict. Relies](https://reader034.vdocuments.mx/reader034/viewer/2022050410/5f86fbb5a6fab710db2fa4e4/html5/thumbnails/74.jpg)
Training by humans
Training Data: Experts in the field upload question/answer pairs Learns linguistic patterns of meaning in a domain Continues learning by interaction between users and Watson, as new research information gets available
![Page 75: Predictive Modeling; RNN, Cognitive Computing; Text Analyticspkalra/siv895/aadhar.pdf · Cognitive Computing Mimics certain aspects of Cognition Learns from data how to predict. Relies](https://reader034.vdocuments.mx/reader034/viewer/2022050410/5f86fbb5a6fab710db2fa4e4/html5/thumbnails/75.jpg)
Ready to answer
Gives recommendations (and the confidence) Metallurgist looking for New Alloys; Researcher looking to Develop Effective Drugs Uncover new possibilities in data, based on evidence
![Page 76: Predictive Modeling; RNN, Cognitive Computing; Text Analyticspkalra/siv895/aadhar.pdf · Cognitive Computing Mimics certain aspects of Cognition Learns from data how to predict. Relies](https://reader034.vdocuments.mx/reader034/viewer/2022050410/5f86fbb5a6fab710db2fa4e4/html5/thumbnails/76.jpg)
Evaluate
Generate hypotheses Look for evidence to support or refute hypotheses Gives weight to each hypotheses (weighted evidence scores) Answer with a level of confidence