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Predicting pest and disease establishment
Sue Worner Better Border Biosecurity (B3)
B3 Conference, May 2014
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Predicting pest and disease establishment
B3 Theme: Risk Grouping
Stakeholders:
New Zealand Collaborators:
International collaborators:
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Invasion eradication continuum
Introduction & establishment
Detection Investigation Response Eradication
Theme 1
Risk analysis
Theme 5
Eradication & response
Courtesy: John Kean
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Predicting pest and disease establishment
Risk assessment:
Categorise potential pests: which species Assess likelihood of establishment: where Research Aim: Develop better methods to decide if an organism is likely/unlikely to establish
Pest risk analysis (from FAO, 1996) www.fao.org
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Outcomes that are currently in use by
MPI
Quantitative methods for identifying emerging risks and improving pest risk assessment (PRA)
Self organising map( SOM) models: to determine
risk of establishment -> Which species
ARC GIS climate-matching software to evaluate establishment likelihood for new pests and diseases -> Where Detailed climate/habitat suitability maps -> Where
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Which species are likely to establish?
An assemblage of species integrates: 1. The biological and climatic characteristics in a region. 2. An invasion history or pathway(s) shared by geographic areas
3. Species profiles are well used in ecology, oil exploration and
research on past climates
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Big data?
459 geographic areas (vectors)
84
4 s
pe
cie
s (
de
scri
pto
rs) Armenia India Bihar Italy Jordan Taiwan - - - Barbados
AM INbh IT JO CNtw - - - BB
Abraxas grossulariata ABRXGR 0 0 0 0 0 - - - 0
Acanthocoris scabrator ACACS1 0 0 0 0 0 - - - 0
Acanthocoris scaber ACACSC 0 0 0 0 0 - - - 0
Acanthocoris sordidus ACACSO 0 0 0 0 1 - - - 0
Acaudaleyrodes rachipora ACADCI 0 0 0 0 0 - - - 0
Achaea serva ACAESE 0 0 0 0 0 - - - 0
Acanthiophilus helianthi ACAIHE 0 1 1 1 0 - - - 0
- - - - - - - - - - -
- - - - - - - - - - -
- - - - - - - - - - -
Zeiraphera diniana ZRPHDI 0 0 0 0 0 - - - 0
Zeiraphera rufimitrana ZRPHRU 0 0 0 0 0 - - - 0
Zulia charon ZULICH 0 0 0 0 0 - - - 0
Zulia colombiana ZULICO 0 0 0 0 0 - - - 0
Zygaena filipendulae ZYGNFI 0 0 1 0 0 - - - 0
Country names and codes
Sp
ecie
s n
am
es a
nd
cel
ls
Crop Compendium – Global Module, 5th
Edition © CAB International,
Wallingford, UK, 2007
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Conventional clustering did not work
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Artificial intelligence: The Self Organising Feature Map (SOM)
SOM orders 459 pest profiles and projects them onto a 2D map Similar pest profiles are assigned to the same cell
459 844
Indicates donor and recipient regions
Worner SP & Gevrey M (2005) Journal of Applied Ecology 43, 858-867
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Established
1
Not Established
0
Weights
Species Weights Aphis craccivora 1 0.7079
Bemisia tabaci 1 0.7033
Rhopalosiphum maidis 1 0.7025
Acyrthosiphon pisum 1 0.6746
Saissetia coffeae 1 0.6652
Thrips tabaci 1 0.6612
Pseudococcus longispinus 1 0.6567
Locusta migratoria 1 0.6488
Aphis spiraecola 1 0.6479
Agrotis segetum 0 0.6432
Aspidiotus nerii 1 0.6425
Ceratitis capitata 0 0.6266
Hyperomyzus lactucae 1 0.6263
Phyllocnistis citrella 0 0.6228
Rhopalosiphum padi 1 0.6168
Spodoptera exigua 0 0.6165
Pieris brassicae 0 0.6009
Which species are high risk?
Portion of New Zealand pest profile
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ARC GIS climate-matching software for evaluating establishment likelihood for new pests and diseases
All of NZ climate match with rest of world based on a CLIMEX match
Craig Phillips, John Kean, Cor Vink
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www.arcgis.com
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World climate match with areas of New Zealand forestry
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• Virginia Morroni and Suvi Viljanen- Rollinson report on Karnal bunt (Telletia indica)
• Climate Match Index (CLIMEX) to assess likelihood of establishment in NZ
Karnal bunt: climate match
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Climate suitability for Puccinia psidii s.l. indicated by CLIMEX Ecoclimatic Index (EI)
Kriticos et al. (2013) Combining a climatic niche model of an invasive fungus with its host species distributions to Identify risks to natural assets: Puccinia psidii sensu lato in Australia. PLOS One DOI: 10.1371/journal.pone.0064479
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Future developments: Consensus or ensemble models for current and changing climate
Psa Dwarf bunt Guava rust
Khandan, H (2014) Ensemble models to assess the risk of exotic plant pathogens in a changing climate, PhD thesis, Lincoln University 2014
Current climate
Climate change scenario A1B 2030
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Future developments: Hybrid models combining physiological response with correlative models
Hybrid suitability prediction for
P. brassicae in New Zealand
Senay, S (2014) Modelling invasive species-landscape interactions using high resolution, spatially explicit models. PhD thesis, Lincoln University, 2014
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Future developments: Traits analysis to determine which species and where?
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Looking ahead - our vision for the future
Climate and habitat suitability assessments combined with trait analysis is key for improved: - detection eg., identification of hotspots - surveillance and response, eg. test different sampling and monitoring strategies in silico - eradication strategies – eg., test and evaluate different eradication procedures in silico - more accurate economic and environmental impact assessment