Download - Predicting Harbour Development: Forecast of German sea borne traffic 2025 Planco Consulting GmbH - Essen 1 Predicting Harbour Development Forecast of German

Predicting Harbour Development: Forecast of German sea borne traffic 2025

Planco Consulting GmbH - Essen1

Predicting Harbour Development

Forecast of German sea borne

traffic 2025



Challenges for the European Ports System

Environmental aspects ( greenhouse gases, air quality) require modal diversification towards rail, inland navigation and maritime transport with ports as interfaces

International transport growing quicker than economic growth

Development of container transport together with more effective, faster, safer and cleaner port operation requires major efforts in land acquisition and management as well as in social issues

The use of It in navigation and telecommunication technologies offers prospects for productivity and new jobs

Dialogue between port stakeholders and urban, regional playershave to ensure social acceptance, to improve the image of theports and to achieve a better spatial organisation



Rhine Estuary Ports

North Sea Ports

Ports at the Baltic Sea



economic development (GDP) in all origine and

destination countries/regions

for German ports: economic development diviersified according to

sectors and branches

development of volumes of goods handled in

ports under consideration

Development of RO-RO traffic and

containertraffic

foreign trade of countries importing or exporting via the ports

under consideration

Development of German foreign trade

development of capacities in the ports

(sea access, loading and gargo handling facilities,

storage areas, hinterland connections)

development of vessel sizes (container

vessels) and required draughts

forecast of economic development in all

involved countries and regions

forecast of German foreign trade (ex-

/import) to countries/regions

Forecast of volume of cargo handled according

to types of goods

development of market shares concerning ro-ro

traffic and containertraffic

statistical analysis: OECD, foreign trade, GDP, feeder and sea-borne transport, fleetstructure, goodsstructure

a.s.o.

Interviews mit players and stakeholders (z.B. port operator, shipping lines, forewarders and shippers)

Forecast cargo handled in all ports under consideration according to typ of goods, packing, origine, destination

and direction

Economy Transport



Bruttoinlandsprodukt Skandinavischer Länder in konstanten Preisen und Wechselkursen von 1995

0

100000

200000

300000

400000

500000

19 8 5 19 9 0 19 9 5 2 0 0 0 2 0 0 5 2 0 10 2 0 15 2 0 2 0 2 0 2 5

FIN SWE NOR DNK

Bruttoinlandsprodukt der südlichen Ostseeanrainer in konstanten Preisen und Wechselkursen von 1995

0

250000

500000

750000

1000000

1250000

1500000

1750000

2000000

1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025

POL EST LVA LTU RUS

Bruttoinlandsprodukt restliches Westeuropa in konstanten Preisen und Wechselkursen von 1995

0

500000

1000000

1500000

2000000

1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025

BIP

in M

io. U

S$

AUT CHE ITA GRC



Skandinavia

15.000

35.000

55.000

100.000 120.000 140.000 160.000 180.000 200.000 220.000

GDP in Mio. US$

Fo

reig

n T

rad

e in

Mio

. U

S$

EXP

IMP

Central Europe

1.000

21.000

41.000

61.000

81.000

150.000 200.000 250.000 300.000 350.000 400.000

GDP in Mio. US$

Fo

reig

n T

rad

e in

Mio

. U

S$ EXP

IMP

West Europe

20.000

120.000

220.000

320.000

420.000

520.000

200.000 700.000 1.200.000 1.700.000 2.200.000 2.700.000

GDP in Mio. US$

Fo

reig

n T

rad

e in

Mio

. U

S$

EXP

IMP

Baltic Sea Countries

0

25.000

50.000

75.000

100.000

10.000 110.000 210.000 310.000

GDP in Mio. US$

Fo

reig

n T

rad

e in

Mio

. U

S$ EXP

IMP

South Europe

0

50.000

100.000

150.000

200.000

250.000

30.000 330.000 630.000 930.000 1.230.000GDP in Mio. US$

Fo

reig

n T

rad

e in

Mio

. U

S$ EXP

IMP

Eastern Europe

0

10.000

20.000

30.000

40.000

1.000 41.000GDP in Mio. US$

Fo

reig

n T

rad

el in

Mio

. U

S$ EXP

IMP



Interdependence between foreign trade and maritime transport

Differenz between growth rates os sea trade and foreign trade in % (Export from Germany to West Europe)

-0,60

-0,40

-0,20

0,00

0,20

0,40

0,60

0,80

1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003

%

dry bulk liquid bulk break bulk

-0,60

-0,40

-0,20

0,00

0,20

0,40

0,60

0,80

1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003

%

dry bulk liquid bulk break bulk

Differenz between growth rates os sea trade and foreign trade in % (Import to Germany from West Europe)



growth of cargo volumes in Hamburg

24 37 40 47 52 60

235

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

1995

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2025

in M

io. t

container break bulk

liquid bulk silo bulk

dry bulk

growth rate 5.3%

growth of cargo volumes in Wihelmshaven (JadeWeserPort)

37

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

1995

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2025

in M

io. t



dry bulk

growth rate 3.4%

13 22 23 24 25 28

95

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

1995

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2025

in M

io t



dry bulk

growth of cargo volumes in Bremerhaven

growth rate 5.8 %



40 52 49 52 56 66

198132

145 145 150 148156

188

7075 69 70 70

75

89

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

1995

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2025

in M

io. t

silo bulk

liquid bulk

break bulk

F (Ro-Ro-Fährgut)

container

growth of cargo volumes in Rotterdam

growth rate 2.5 %

growth of cargo volumes in Antwerpen

18 32 32 35 45 50

127

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

1995

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2025

in M

io. t

silo bulkliquid bulkbreak bulkF (Ro-Ro-Fährgut)container

growth rate 3.9%



0

10

20

30

40

50

1995

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2025

in M

io. t

TrM (trockenes Massengut)

SgM (Sauggut)

FlM (flüs. Massengut) S (sonst. Stückgut )

C (Containergut) WR 4,3 %

Devopment of cargo handling Lübeck

0

10

20

30

40

50

1995

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2025

in M

io. t

TrM (trockenes Massengut)SgM (Sauggut) FlM (flüs. Massengut) S (sonst. Stückgut )C (Containergut)

WR 4,4 %

Devopment of cargo handling Rostock



Containervolumes per Port Groups

0

100.000

200.000

300.000

400.000

2004 2010 2015 2020 2025

Mio

. TEU

German Ports

Rhine Estuary Ports

Container transport via German Northsea Ports and the Rine Estuary Portsumschlag from and to North-East Asia

43

155

0

40

80

120

160

2004 2010 2015 2020 2025

Mio

TEU

Australia2%Afrika

5% Europe38%

Nort America13%

South America

6%

Asia36%

Regional distribution of maritime container traffic

2004

Europe36%

Nort America14%

South America

8%

Asia36%

Afrika5%

Australia1%

Regional distribution of maritime container traffic

2025



Transshipment über Hamburg / Bremische Häfen / Wilhelmshaven – Containerladung 2004 in 1.000 t



T Transshipment über Hamburg / Bremische Häfen / Wilhelmshaven – Containerladung 2025 in 1.000 t



Expanding Capacity while respecting the Environment

increase port efficiency and productivity rates in terms of output or movement per ha,

Integrated transport chain at least through the port to hinterland carriers,

use telecommunication to smoothen the interface between modes and operators,

explore alternative transport routes considering the capacity of hinterland links,

expand ports on the basis of large consensus of all stakeholders.

Download - Predicting Harbour Development: Forecast of German sea borne traffic 2025 Planco Consulting GmbH - Essen 1 Predicting Harbour Development Forecast of German

Top Related