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June 16 - 1
Power Sector Vision in the Greater Mekong
WWF
June 2016 JP Denruyter
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June 16 - 2
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Average real GDP growth 2000 - 2014
June 16 - 3
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Electricity demand and growth rates
• CAGR for electricity consumption is for the last ten years for Cambodia, Lao PDR, and Viet Nam, last five years for Myanmar and twelve years for Thailand.
• CAGR for peak demand is for last five years for Cambodia, Myanmar, and Thailand, ten years for Lao PDR and Viet Nam.
June 16 - 4
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Electrification rates (2014)
June 16 - 5
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Installed capacity by technology/fuel (2014)
June 16 - 6
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The future for the power sector in the Greater Mekong
• Huge electricity consumption growth
• Hydro – not much potential left in Thailand and Viet Nam but large potential in Cambodia, Lao PDR and Myanmar – high environmental and social impacts
• Coal – available but poor quality and difficult locations. Imports planned.
• Gas – over 1000 Bcm in region.
• Great wind, solar and biomass potential
June 16 - 7
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Greater Mekong future generation mix (BAU)
June 16 - 8
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Is that a good future?
• Health Impacts - $0.014 - $0.17/kWh (Buonocore et al., 2015)
• Over 780 million tonnes of CO2eq emissions per year in 2050
• 50% of electricity produced with imported fuel (outside of Mekong region) by 2050
June 16 - 9
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Alternative for the region?
June 16 - 10
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June 16 - 11
• Analyse technically and economically whether the power sector can shift to a power mix largely based on renewables and efficiency.
• Multi-stakeholder project with consultations.
• Contribute to debate on power development plan and future of power sector.
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Project Stages & Current Status
12
Cambodia
Laos PDR
Myanmar
Thailand
Vietnam
• Economic outlook • Current situation • Potential RE & EE • Existing plans • Feasibility of other
plans & constraints
Assumptions & Methodology
Business as Usual (BAU)
Sustainable Energy Scenario
(SES)
Consultation
Detailed Technical Modelling of GMS Power Sectors (BAU
& SES)`
• Detailed results • Alternative SES
plan for GMS • Cost & benefits • Implications • Barriers
GMS Power Sector Vision
refine key assumptions
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Modelling
• On an hourly basis to balance supply and demand
• Optimisation based on least cost
• Transparent assumptions on fixed and variable costs of various technologies
June 16 - 13
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June 16 - 14
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Assumptions for Scenarios
• Use of official GDP and population growth forecasts
• Conservative assumptions on technology and fuel costs for fossil fuels and renewable energy
• Energy efficiency assumptions based on other Asian countries – huge potential!
• Sustainable Energy Scenario gives preference to solar, wind and biomass technologies
June 16 - 15
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Our Partners for the Power Sector Vision project
• IES for technical modelling
• Vietnamese Sustainable Energy Alliance
• Renewable Energy Association Myanmar
• Spectrum Myanmar
• Healthy Public Policy Foundation Thailand
• Mekong Strategic Partners in Cambodia
• Laos – consultants
June 16 - 16
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Greater Mekong future generation mix (BAU)
June 16 - 17
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June 16 - 18
Resource Flows
Coal, Diesel, Fuel Oil, Nuclear Below 10,000 GWh
Gas 10,001 - 20,000 GWh
Large Hydro Above 20,000 GWh
Wind
Solar, Battery, CSP
Biomass and Biogas
Other Renewables
Greater Mekong future generation mix (BAU)
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Sustainable Energy Scenarios Electricity Demand
June 16 - 19
-30%
BAU
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Greater Mekong future capacity mix (Sustainable Energy Scenario)
June 16 - 20
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Greater Mekong future generation mix (Sustainable Energy Scenario)
June 16 - 21
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Greater Mekong future generation mix (Sustainable Energy Scenario)
June 16 - 22
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Supply security : % of electricity
generated at home
June 16 - 23
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Net Present Cost of power sector OPEX & CAPEX until 2050
June 16 - 24
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Are the cost assumptions realistic?
June 16 - 25 June 16 - 25
Solar PV + battery Hawaii contract at 145 $/MWh
Solar PV PPAs in India, Saudi Arabia, Dubai, US at 50-70 $/MWh Wind PPAs in Brazil at around 40-50 $/MWh
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Levelised cost of electricity
June 16 - 26
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Avoided CO2eq emissions
June 16 - 27
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Job creation
June 16 - 28
0
200,000
400,000
600,000
800,000
1,000,000
1,200,000
1,400,000
1,600,000
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
2028
2029
2030
2031
2032
2033
2034
2035
2036
2037
2038
2039
2040
2041
2042
2043
2044
2045
2046
2047
2048
2049
2050
Num
ber
of J
obs
BAU SES ASES
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Scenario Conclusions
• RE range is between 86% and 100% by 2050
• Carbon emissions reduced by minimum 83%
• SES Hydro increase limited to plants under construction or last phases of planning
• Additional cost to society? Higher capital costs (50% higher) but lower fuel costs turn the energy transition into a win-win scenario
• This does not take into account social and environmental benefits – a just and sustainable energy transition has many more benefits
June 16 - 29
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panda.org/greatermekong/energyvision
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Back up slides
June 16 - 31
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Greater Mekong future capacity mix (BAU)
June 16 - 32
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Advanced Sustainable Energy
Scenario (ASES)
June 16 - 33
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Electricity demand by sector
2014
June 16 - 34
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June 16 - 35
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June 16 - 36
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Cumulative investments
June 16 - 37
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Carbon Emissions
June 16 - 38
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Job creation
June 16 - 39
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Hydro
“The fact that current hydro power projects
are included in the SES does not mean that
WWF or its partners condone any specific
existing dam. But since they have been built,
they are part of the suggested power mix in
the SES. It may well be that some of those
dams will be decommissioned early to make
way for more sustainable solutions.”
June 16 - 40
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Technical potential: 60% of variable
electricity
June 16 - 41
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050
Max
ium
um
shar
e fr
om s
upply
-drive
n s
ourc
es
(WWF and Ecofys, 2011)
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Why batteries?
June 16 - 42
2015: $350/kWh
2030: $120/kWh
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Why batteries?
• UBS study recently showed that solar and batteries are
already cost effective in Australia (Reneweconomy,
2014).
• Project in Hawai: “The combined solar and energy
storage system is designed to give KIUC, the Kaua‘i
Island Utility Cooperative, dispatch-able electricity in the
evening, and after the sun goes down. KIUC has a 20-
year contract with SolarCity to buy the solar-generated
electricity at a competitive price of 14.5 cents per kilowatt
hour.”
• Estimate of amount of EV conservative (25% in Thailand
by 2050 – compared to expert projections of 50-60%)
June 16 - 43
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Efficiency – why this method?
• No bottom-up approach possible without data
• Simply assuming a percentage of EE is not
satisfactory
• Assuming future energy intensity levels by
comparing with other countries – ok, not perfect.
• Quite conservative: we compare energy intensity
in 2050 with today’s energy intensity in
reference countries
June 16 - 44
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Electricity tariffs
June 16 - 45 (ASEAN Centre for Energy)
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Main assumptions
Demand
• BAU: government plans, with extrapolation
based on GDP growth per economic sector,
population growth and electrification rates.
• SES: GDP growth, population growth,
electrification rates (access to electricity + car
electrification), energy intensity from other
countries (Japan, South Korea, Hong Kong,
Singapore)
• Energy efficiency costs from McKinsey, Berkeley
June 16 - 46
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Main Assumptions
Supply
• CAPEX and OPEX assumptions on RE
and FF (incl. nuclear) for BAU and SES
• Cost assumptions on storage (batteries
mainly)
• Reasonable speed of technology
development
June 16 - 47
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Capital costs
June 16 - 48
2,49
2
5,75
6
942
778
1,45
0
2,90
0
2,10
0
2,30
0
2,24
3
2,63
0
500
8,51
3
5,22
6
1,80
02,47
4
5,18
0
935
772 1,
305
2,61
0
2,20
0
2,35
0
1,50
0
1,75
9
225
5,50
0
4,17
0
1,76
52,45
0
4,60
5
926
764 1,
175
2,34
9
2,35
0
2,45
0
1,00
0
1,17
3
200
4,00
0
3,70
3
1,72
5
0
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
5,000
6,000
7,000
8,000
9,000
Gen
eric
Coa
l
Coal
with
CCS
CCG
T
GT
Win
d O
nsho
re
Win
d O
ffsh
ore
Hyd
ro L
arge
Hyd
ro S
mal
l
PV N
o Tr
acki
ng
PV w
ithTr
acki
ng
Batt
ery
- Util
itySc
ale
Sola
r The
rmal
with
Sto
rage
Sola
r The
rmal
No
Stor
age
Biom
ass
Capi
tal C
ost (
Real
201
4 U
SD/k
W)
2015 2030 2050
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Grids - Myanmar
June 16 - 49
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Cost of scenarios BAU
June 16 - 50
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Cost of scenarios SES
June 16 - 51
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Cost of scenarios Difference between BAU and SES
June 16 - 52
-60,000
-50,000
-40,000
-30,000
-20,000
-10,000
0
10,000
20,000
20
15
20
16
20
17
20
18
20
19
20
20
20
21
20
22
20
23
20
24
20
25
20
26
20
27
20
28
20
29
20
30
20
31
20
32
20
33
20
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OPEX CAPEX Grid Electrification
Energy Efficiency Offgrid Net Investment
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June 16 - 53
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June 16 - 54
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June 16 - 55
Type FOM ($/MW/yr) VOM ($/MWh)
Hydro 15,124 0.00
Wind 11,784 10.00
Coal 24,036 3.69
Gas 12,023 6.31
Diesel 29,870 15.20
Uranium 34,400 13.77
Fuel Oil 13,283 8.73
Bio 30,435 4.48
Solar 11,331 5.00
CSP 51,359 5.00
Battery 10,000 0.00
Hydro ROR 12,861 0.00
Geothermal 51,359 0.00
Pump Storage 6,216 0.00
CCS 48,724 8.29
Ocean 140,000 0.00