![Page 1: Population II Future predictions: Malthus vs. Boserup The demographic transition Urbanization and world cities (Delhi)](https://reader036.vdocuments.mx/reader036/viewer/2022062804/5697bf791a28abf838c824b6/html5/thumbnails/1.jpg)
Population II
• Future predictions: Malthus vs. Boserup
• The demographic transition
• Urbanization and world cities (Delhi)
![Page 2: Population II Future predictions: Malthus vs. Boserup The demographic transition Urbanization and world cities (Delhi)](https://reader036.vdocuments.mx/reader036/viewer/2022062804/5697bf791a28abf838c824b6/html5/thumbnails/2.jpg)
Future population
• Doubling time = 70 ÷ rate of natural increase
![Page 3: Population II Future predictions: Malthus vs. Boserup The demographic transition Urbanization and world cities (Delhi)](https://reader036.vdocuments.mx/reader036/viewer/2022062804/5697bf791a28abf838c824b6/html5/thumbnails/3.jpg)
Future population
• Doubling time = 70 ÷ rate of natural increase
![Page 4: Population II Future predictions: Malthus vs. Boserup The demographic transition Urbanization and world cities (Delhi)](https://reader036.vdocuments.mx/reader036/viewer/2022062804/5697bf791a28abf838c824b6/html5/thumbnails/4.jpg)
Future population: Thomas Malthus
• Essay on the Principle of Population (1798)
• Observing the Industrial Revolution
• Food is necessary for human existence
• "The passion between the sexes is necessary and constant"
![Page 5: Population II Future predictions: Malthus vs. Boserup The demographic transition Urbanization and world cities (Delhi)](https://reader036.vdocuments.mx/reader036/viewer/2022062804/5697bf791a28abf838c824b6/html5/thumbnails/5.jpg)
Future population: Malthus
• Food production grows arithmetically, but population grows geometrically
![Page 6: Population II Future predictions: Malthus vs. Boserup The demographic transition Urbanization and world cities (Delhi)](https://reader036.vdocuments.mx/reader036/viewer/2022062804/5697bf791a28abf838c824b6/html5/thumbnails/6.jpg)
Future population: Malthus
• Food production grows arithmetically, but population grows geometrically
![Page 7: Population II Future predictions: Malthus vs. Boserup The demographic transition Urbanization and world cities (Delhi)](https://reader036.vdocuments.mx/reader036/viewer/2022062804/5697bf791a28abf838c824b6/html5/thumbnails/7.jpg)
Future population: Malthus
• Food production grows arithmetically, but population grows geometrically
• Therefore, the human population will self-regulate by means of famine
• Ecological view of humanity
![Page 8: Population II Future predictions: Malthus vs. Boserup The demographic transition Urbanization and world cities (Delhi)](https://reader036.vdocuments.mx/reader036/viewer/2022062804/5697bf791a28abf838c824b6/html5/thumbnails/8.jpg)
![Page 9: Population II Future predictions: Malthus vs. Boserup The demographic transition Urbanization and world cities (Delhi)](https://reader036.vdocuments.mx/reader036/viewer/2022062804/5697bf791a28abf838c824b6/html5/thumbnails/9.jpg)
Demographic transition
• Shift from high birth and death rates to low birth and death rates
![Page 10: Population II Future predictions: Malthus vs. Boserup The demographic transition Urbanization and world cities (Delhi)](https://reader036.vdocuments.mx/reader036/viewer/2022062804/5697bf791a28abf838c824b6/html5/thumbnails/10.jpg)
Demographic transition
• Stage 1: pre-industrial
• High birth rate; high, fluctuating death rate
![Page 11: Population II Future predictions: Malthus vs. Boserup The demographic transition Urbanization and world cities (Delhi)](https://reader036.vdocuments.mx/reader036/viewer/2022062804/5697bf791a28abf838c824b6/html5/thumbnails/11.jpg)
Demographic transition
• Stage 2: industrial
• Birth rate stays high
• Death rate drops with better living conditions
![Page 12: Population II Future predictions: Malthus vs. Boserup The demographic transition Urbanization and world cities (Delhi)](https://reader036.vdocuments.mx/reader036/viewer/2022062804/5697bf791a28abf838c824b6/html5/thumbnails/12.jpg)
Demographic transition
• Stage 3: urbanized
• Birth rate drops; death rate stays low
• Growth begins to taper off
![Page 13: Population II Future predictions: Malthus vs. Boserup The demographic transition Urbanization and world cities (Delhi)](https://reader036.vdocuments.mx/reader036/viewer/2022062804/5697bf791a28abf838c824b6/html5/thumbnails/13.jpg)
![Page 14: Population II Future predictions: Malthus vs. Boserup The demographic transition Urbanization and world cities (Delhi)](https://reader036.vdocuments.mx/reader036/viewer/2022062804/5697bf791a28abf838c824b6/html5/thumbnails/14.jpg)
Future population: Ester Boserup
• Conditions of Agricultural Growth (1965)
• Technological improvements keep food production ahead of population
• "Overpopulation" actually drives agricultural improvement
• Social scientists’ view of humanity
![Page 15: Population II Future predictions: Malthus vs. Boserup The demographic transition Urbanization and world cities (Delhi)](https://reader036.vdocuments.mx/reader036/viewer/2022062804/5697bf791a28abf838c824b6/html5/thumbnails/15.jpg)
Future population
• Increasing emphasis on quality of life
• Reproductive health care
• Women’s rights and development
![Page 16: Population II Future predictions: Malthus vs. Boserup The demographic transition Urbanization and world cities (Delhi)](https://reader036.vdocuments.mx/reader036/viewer/2022062804/5697bf791a28abf838c824b6/html5/thumbnails/16.jpg)
![Page 17: Population II Future predictions: Malthus vs. Boserup The demographic transition Urbanization and world cities (Delhi)](https://reader036.vdocuments.mx/reader036/viewer/2022062804/5697bf791a28abf838c824b6/html5/thumbnails/17.jpg)
![Page 18: Population II Future predictions: Malthus vs. Boserup The demographic transition Urbanization and world cities (Delhi)](https://reader036.vdocuments.mx/reader036/viewer/2022062804/5697bf791a28abf838c824b6/html5/thumbnails/18.jpg)
Urbanization
• Just under half world population
• But most growth is in cities
• Overcrowding, food security, health
![Page 19: Population II Future predictions: Malthus vs. Boserup The demographic transition Urbanization and world cities (Delhi)](https://reader036.vdocuments.mx/reader036/viewer/2022062804/5697bf791a28abf838c824b6/html5/thumbnails/19.jpg)
• Historically follows industrialization
• Industrial Revolution: Europe from 12% to 36%
• 1850-1910, North America from 16% to 40%
Urbanization
![Page 20: Population II Future predictions: Malthus vs. Boserup The demographic transition Urbanization and world cities (Delhi)](https://reader036.vdocuments.mx/reader036/viewer/2022062804/5697bf791a28abf838c824b6/html5/thumbnails/20.jpg)
![Page 21: Population II Future predictions: Malthus vs. Boserup The demographic transition Urbanization and world cities (Delhi)](https://reader036.vdocuments.mx/reader036/viewer/2022062804/5697bf791a28abf838c824b6/html5/thumbnails/21.jpg)
Urbanization
• 1950-1990, Third World from 17% to 37%
• Most rapid in history
• But without economic growth
• And without urban decentralization
![Page 22: Population II Future predictions: Malthus vs. Boserup The demographic transition Urbanization and world cities (Delhi)](https://reader036.vdocuments.mx/reader036/viewer/2022062804/5697bf791a28abf838c824b6/html5/thumbnails/22.jpg)
![Page 23: Population II Future predictions: Malthus vs. Boserup The demographic transition Urbanization and world cities (Delhi)](https://reader036.vdocuments.mx/reader036/viewer/2022062804/5697bf791a28abf838c824b6/html5/thumbnails/23.jpg)
![Page 24: Population II Future predictions: Malthus vs. Boserup The demographic transition Urbanization and world cities (Delhi)](https://reader036.vdocuments.mx/reader036/viewer/2022062804/5697bf791a28abf838c824b6/html5/thumbnails/24.jpg)
Urbanization: megacities
• Population over 10 million
• Disproportionately large economic activity
• From 5 in 1970 to 26 in 2015
• Strong income disparities
• Environmental and health problems
• Lack of infrastructure
![Page 25: Population II Future predictions: Malthus vs. Boserup The demographic transition Urbanization and world cities (Delhi)](https://reader036.vdocuments.mx/reader036/viewer/2022062804/5697bf791a28abf838c824b6/html5/thumbnails/25.jpg)