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Planning for Sustainable Urban Transport Systems in
India - Strengths and Weaknesses
O.P. Agarwal Presented on 22nd September at Kathmandu
United Nations ESCAP – KOTI
Expert Group Meeting on Planning and Assessment of Urban Transport Systems
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Growth in Registered Motor Vehicles
(million)
0.3 0.7 1.9 5.4 21.4
55
142
182
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
180
200
1951 1961 1971 1981 1991 2001 2011 2013
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Growth of Vehicles to Population (1981-2011)
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
Ban
galo
re
Kol
kata
Che
nnai
Del
hi
Hyd
erab
ad
Mum
bai
Ave
rage
Population Vehicles Veh/Pop
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Motor vehicle growth in some cities (‘000)
0
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
6000
7000
8000
2002 2011
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Changing share of vehicles
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
1951 1961 1971 1981 1991 2001 2011
Cars & 4 wheelers
Goods vehicles
Buses
Others
8
Scooters & Motorbikes
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Growth of Oil Consumption in India
F.E. Outgo (in Rs Billion)
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
1981 1991 2001 2011
Oil Consumption
(MMT)
0
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
6000
7000
8000
1981 1991 2001 2011
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No. of fatalities in road accidents (in ‘000)
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India’s Urban population projections
62.4 78.9 109 159
217 285
377
473
583
700
820
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
900
1951 1961 1971 1981 1991 2001 2011 2021 2031 2041 2051
Po
pu
lati
on
(M
illio
ns)
Actual
Projected
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Strategies for
parking
space and
freight traffic
movements
Establish
Regulatory
mechanisms
for a level
playing field
Innovative
financing
methods to
raise
resources
Promote
cleaner fuel &
vehicle
technologies
for cities
Projects to
demonstrate
best practices
in sustainable
transport
Ensure
integrated
land use &
transport
planning
Ensure
coordinated
planning for
urban
transport
Build capacity
to plan for
sustainable
urban
transport
Investments
in public
transport &
Non
Motorized
modes
People
focused &
equitable
allocation of
road space
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Key Concern
• Urban transport is a State subject
• Flyovers and road-widening are popular initiatives
• How does one get the States to think differently?
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National Urban Renewal Mission
• Established a partnership for the national, provincial and local governments to finance the needed urban infrastructure
• National government commits Rs 50,000 crores ($ 10 billion) over a 7 year period
• Linked to prescribed reforms
• Cities could “dare to dream”
• A recognition that urbanization is “irreversible”
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Thus:
National Urban
Transport Policy
National Urban
Renewal Mission
Established a Framework for action
Created an incentive for implementation
This effectively enabled a focus on public transport
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Mass Transit Investments
17
Metro Rail Systems
BRT Systems
Modern Bus Systems
11 cities
Delhi, Mumbai, Bangalore and Gurgaon functional
7 under implementation
16 cities – 7 functional, 9 ongoing, more in the pipeline
67 cities
• Improved buses
• Pass. Info System
• Separation of planning from operations
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Experience with Delhi Metro
• Extremely well executed and well operated
• Pride of the city
• However, congestion has not come down - got worse
• Relatively low ridership levels, yet crowded - seems more like a suburban system
• No densification/TOD
• Poor feeders and no integration with other systems
Needs more than a construction focus
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The hub of the Delhi metro
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Experience with BRT
• Very adverse public reaction when operations started in Delhi and Pune
• Adverse impact created doubts in other cities as well
• Ahmedabad BRT has since given confidence to others
• Construction focus - Softer side of BRT does not seem to have received adequate attention
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Modern bus services • Central Government grant for purchase of
modern buses in 67 cities
• Institutional reforms directed: o Lead institution
o Separation of planning from operations
o Use of private sector for operations under formal contracts
• Huge capacity constraints in new cities
• Inadequate private operators
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Experience
• Take what you can while it is there
• But many cities not prepared for this
• Informal operators have to be won over
• Inadequate corporate operators in the private sector
• Lead institutions (UMTA) set up in some cities, but more as a formality
• Existing STUs have taken the buses in several cities
• Yet, a few good example – Bhopal, Indore, etc.
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Financing
• Investment of Rs 30 lakh crores ($600 Billion) needed in the next 20 years
• Implies a need for 1.5 Lakh crores ($30 Billion) each year for 20 years
• JNNURM allocated 50,000 crores ($10 Billion) over 7 years for all urban infrastructure
• Smart cities initiative has allocated approx one lakh crores ($ 20 Billion) over 5 years for all urban infrastructure
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Needs smart planning and smart financing
• Build what is really needed
• Upgrade quality of public transport services
• Proper land use planning to reduce demand
• Proper pricing
• New revenue sources – land resources, etc
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Major Weaknesses • Institutional fragmentation – lack of holistic planning
• Integrated Land Use and Transport Planning not yet institutionalized
• Weak capacity for comprehensive urban transport planning
• Motorization does not show signs of abatement
• Dominance of 2-wheelers – very convenient vehicle
• No initiatives towards demand management – restraining personal motor vehicle use
• Poor social image of the bus and cycling
• High cost construction focused projects are attractive – no integration with other modes
• Emphasis on larger cities – opportunity to design smaller cities right being missed
• Emphasis on public funding continues
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Way forward
• Set up “Lead” institutions that would coordinate all aspects of urban transport
• Sensitization to comprehensive and holistic planning – massive capacity building effort needed
• Focus on secondary cities
• Innovative financing
• Modernization of bus services
o Focus on smart technology
o Involvement of the private sector
• Focus on cleaner technologies
• Focus on demand management
26
Its an “Art” more than
a “Science”