Download - Phillips66 Q4 2014 Press Release Slides
PHILLIPS 66 FOURTH QUARTER CONFERENCE CALL January 29, 2015
This presentation contains certain forward-looking statements within the meaning of Section 27A of the Securities Act of 1933, as amended, and
Section 21E of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as amended, which are intended to be covered by the safe harbors created thereby. Words and
phrases such as “is anticipated,” “is estimated,” “is expected,” “is planned,” “is scheduled,” “is targeted,” “believes,” “intends,” “objectives,” “projects,”
“strategies” and similar expressions are used to identify such forward-looking statements. However, the absence of these words does not mean that a
statement is not forward-looking. Forward-looking statements relating to Phillips 66’s operations (including joint venture operations) are based on
management’s expectations, estimates and projections about the company, its interests and the energy industry in general on the date this
presentation was prepared. These statements are not guarantees of future performance and involve certain risks, uncertainties and assumptions that
are difficult to predict. Therefore, actual outcomes and results may differ materially from what is expressed or forecast in such forward-looking
statements. Factors that could cause actual results or events to differ materially from those described in the forward-looking statements include
fluctuations in crude oil, NGL, and natural gas prices, and refining and petrochemical margins; unexpected changes in costs for constructing, modifying
or operating our facilities; unexpected difficulties in manufacturing, refining or transporting our products; lack of, or disruptions in, adequate and
reliable transportation for our crude oil, natural gas, NGL, and refined products; potential liability from litigation or for remedial actions, including
removal and reclamation obligations, under environmental regulations; limited access to capital or significantly higher cost of capital related to
illiquidity or uncertainty in the domestic or international financial markets; and other economic, business, competitive and/or regulatory factors
affecting Phillips 66’s businesses generally as set forth in our filings with the Securities and Exchange Commission. Phillips 66 is under no obligation
(and expressly disclaims any such obligation) to update or alter its forward-looking statements, whether as a result of new information, future events or
otherwise.
This presentation includes non-GAAP financial measures. You can find the reconciliations to comparable GAAP financial measures at the end of the
presentation materials or in the “Investors” section of our website.
CAUTIONARY STATEMENT
2
3
EXECUTING STRATEGY
4
OVERVIEW 2014
Adjusted Earnings:
Adjusted EPS:
Operating cash flow excluding working capital:
Capital expenditures and investments:
Shareholder distributions:
Net-debt-to-capital ratio:
Adjusted ROCE:
$913 MM
$1.63
$1.1 B
$1.1 B
$807 MM
14 %
13 %
Shareholder distributions include dividends, share repurchases and the PSPI exchange
$3.8 B
$6.62
$4.5 B
$3.8 B
$4.7 B
14 %
14 %
2014 4Q
$MM
ADJUSTED EARNINGS 2014 VS. 2013
5
Segment 2013 2014 Increase
(Decrease)
Midstream 469 508 8%
Chemicals 986 1,209 23%
Refining 1,734 1,576 (9%)
M&S 885 882 0%
Corporate (431) (393) 9%
Phillips 66 3,643 3,782 4%
Adjusted EPS 5.89 6.62 12%
2013
Adjusted
Earnings
2014
Adjusted
Earnings
3,643 3,782
1,140
913
(18) (29)
(236)
65
(9)
3Q 2014
Adjusted
Earnings
Midstream Chemicals Refining Marketing
& Specialties
Corporate
& Other
4Q 2014
Adjusted
Earnings
4Q 2014 Adjusted Earnings
$MM
97 (100) 322 270 324
ADJUSTED EARNINGS 4Q 2014 VS. 3Q 2014
6
7
MIDSTREAM OVERVIEW 4Q 2014
Transportation: Deferred tax asset write-off
DCP Midstream: Lower prices
NGL: Improved margins
2014 Adjusted ROCE: 13%
115 97
(5)
(42)
29
3Q 2014
Adjusted
Earnings
Transportation DCP
Midstream
NGL 4Q 2014
Adjusted
Earnings
$MM
MIDSTREAM 4Q 2014 VS. 3Q 2014
8
53 55 (11)
4Q 2014 Adjusted Earnings
9
CHEMICALS OVERVIEW 4Q 2014
Olefins & Polyolefins: Port Arthur resumed operations
Specialties, Aromatics & Styrenics: Lower margins and volumes
2014 Adjusted ROCE: 27%
299 270
(11)(19)
1
3Q 2014
Adjusted
Earnings
Olefins &
Polyolefins
Specialties,
Aromatics &
Styrenics
Other 4Q 2014
Adjusted
Earnings
$MM
CHEMICALS 4Q 2014 VS. 3Q 2014
10
4Q 2014 Adjusted Earnings
248 (5) 27
11
REFINING OVERVIEW 4Q 2014
Realized refining margin: $9.30/BBL
Worldwide market capture: 89%
Refining crude utilization: 95%
Advantaged U.S. crude slate: 95%
Clean product yield: 84%
2014 Adjusted ROCE: 12%
558
322
78
(31)
(94)
(64)
(125)
3Q 2014
Adjusted
Earnings
Atlantic
Basin /
Europe
Gulf Coast Central
Corridor
Western /
Pacific
Other
Refining
4Q 2014
Adjusted
Earnings
$MM
REFINING 4Q 2014 VS. 3Q 2014
12
203 (32) 206 12 (67)
4Q 2014 Adjusted Earnings
10.45 9.30
0.14
(3.15)
1.41 0.45
Market
3:2:1
Configuration Secondary
Products
Feedstock Other Realized
Margin
WORLDWIDE REFINING $/BBL
REFINING MARGINS – MARKET VS. REALIZED 4Q 2014
13
Avg. Market Crude: $75.39/BBL 95% Crude Capacity Utilization 89% Market Capture
14
MARKETING AND SPECIALTIES OVERVIEW 4Q 2014
Marketing & Other: Continued strong margins
Specialties: Higher margins
2014 Adjusted ROCE: 32%
259
324
40 25
3Q 2014
Adjusted
Earnings
Marketing
& Other
Specialties 4Q 2014
Adjusted
Earnings
$MM
MARKETING AND SPECIALTIES 4Q 2014 VS. 3Q 2014
15
256 68
4Q 2014 Adjusted Earnings
(91)(100)
7
(8)(8)
3Q 2014
Adjusted
Net Loss
Net Interest
Expense
Corporate
Overhead Other
4Q 2014
Adjusted
Net Loss
$MM
CORPORATE AND OTHER 4Q 2014 VS. 3Q 2014
16
20.8 22.4 21.8 22.0 22.2 22.0
7.0 6.2 6.2 6.2 6.2 8.7
3.5 5.4 5.3 5.0
3.1 5.2
25%
22% 22% 22% 22%
28%
2012 2013 1Q 2014 2Q 2014 3Q 2014 4Q 2014
Equity $B Debt $B Cash & Cash Equivalents $B Debt to Capital
20% - 30%
CAPITAL STRUCTURE 2012 – 4Q 2014
17
3.1
5.2
1.1
(0.2)
2.5
0.6
(1.1)(0.3)
(0.5)
September 30
Cash Balance*
CFO
(excludingworking
capital)
Working
Capital
Debt
Issuance
Asset
Dispositions
Capital
Expenditures& Investments
Dividends Share
Repurchases
December 31
Cash Balance*
$B
CASH FLOW 4Q 2014
18
* Includes cash and cash equivalents
Distributions
Capital
Expenditures
&
Investments
Cash From
Operations
Asset
Sales
Debt
Cash Draw
& Other
SOURCES AND USES 2014
19
Cash Sources
$7.6 B
Cash Uses
$7.6 B
$2.5 B
Debt-to-Capital 28%
Net-Debt-to-Capital 14%
$3.8 B
Share Repurchases $2.7 B
Dividends $1.1 B
$3.8 B
Growth $2.7 B
Sustaining $1.1 B
Debt $3.5 B
CFO (Excl. WC) $4.5 B
Working Capital ($1.0) B
Cash From Operations Capex & Investments Distributions
Share repurchases includes a $450 MM cash flow impact from the PSPI exchange
20
OUTLOOK
PHILLIPS 66 FOURTH QUARTER 2014 CONFERENCE CALL
Questions and Answers
PHILLIPS 66 FOURTH QUARTER 2014 CONFERENCE CALL
Appendix
ESTIMATED SENSITIVITIES 2015
23 Sensitivities shown above are independent and are only valid within a limited price range
Midstream - DCP (net to Phillips 66)
10¢/Gal Increase in NGL price 40
$1/MMBtu Increase in Natural Gas price 30
$10/BBL Increase in WTI price 20
Chemicals - CPChem (net to Phillips 66)
1¢/Lb Increase in Chain Margin (Ethylene, Polyethylene, NAO) 35
Worldwide Refining (assuming 91% refining utilization)
$1/BBL Increase in Gasoline Margin 220
$1/BBL Increase in Distillate Margin 200
$1/BBL Widening LLS / Maya Differential (LLS less Maya) 50
$1/BBL Widening WTI / WCS Differential (WTI less WCS) 40
$1/BBL Widening WTI / WTS Differential (WTI less WTS) 15
$1/BBL Widening LLS / Medium Sour Differential (LLS less Medium Sour) 10
$1/BBL Widening ANS / WCS Differential (ANS less WCS) 10
10¢/MMBtu Increase in Natural Gas price (10)
Impacts due to Actual Crude Feedstock Differing from Feedstock Assumed in Market Indicators:
Annual
Net Income
$MM
13.14 11.04
(0.27)
(1.30)(0.69)
0.16
Market
3:2:1
Configuration Secondary
Products
Feedstock Other Realized
Margin
ATLANTIC BASIN / EUROPE $/BBL
REFINING MARGINS – MARKET VS. REALIZED 4Q 2014
24
Market 3:2:1 – Dated Brent / Gasoline 83.7 RBOB NYH / Diesel 15ppm NYH
Brent: $76.27/BBL 96% Crude Capacity Utilization 84% Market Capture
5.37
6.58
0.70
(4.38)
1.33
3.56
Market
3:2:1
Configuration Secondary
Products
Feedstock Other Realized
Margin
GULF COAST $/BBL
REFINING MARGINS – MARKET VS. REALIZED 4Q 2014
25
Market 3:2:1 – LLS / Gasoline 85 CBOB / Diesel 61 8ppm
LLS: $76.38/BBL 97% Crude Capacity Utilization 122% Market Capture
13.28 14.01
0.25
(3.45)
2.91 1.02
Market
3:2:1
Configuration Secondary
Products
Feedstock Other Realized
Margin
CENTRAL CORRIDOR $/BBL
REFINING MARGINS – MARKET VS. REALIZED 4Q 2014
26
Market 3:2:1 – WTI / Gasoline Unl Sub Octane Group 3 / ULSD Group 3
WTI: $73.41/BBL 96% Crude Capacity Utilization 106% Market Capture
12.21
6.52
0.42
(3.58)
3.07
(5.60)
Market
3:2:1
Configuration Secondary
Products
Feedstock Other Realized
Margin
WESTERN / PACIFIC $/BBL
REFINING MARGINS – MARKET VS. REALIZED 4Q 2014
27
Market 3:2:1 – ANS Spot / Los Angeles CARBOB / Los Angeles No. 2 CARB
ANS: $74.76BBL 92% Crude Capacity Utilization 53% Market Capture
808 913
(24)
9
(96)
219
(3)
4Q 2013
Adjusted
Earnings
Midstream Chemicals Refining Marketing
& Specialties
Corporate
& Other
4Q 2014
Adjusted
Earnings
4Q 2014 Adjusted Earnings
$MM
97 (100) 322 270 324
ADJUSTED EARNINGS 4Q 2014 VS. 4Q 2013
28
121
97
3
(48)
21
4Q 2013
Adjusted
Earnings
Transportation DCP
Midstream
NGL 4Q 2014
Adjusted
Earnings
$MM
MIDSTREAM 4Q 2014 VS. 4Q 2013
29
53 55 (11)
4Q 2014 Adjusted Earnings
261 270
(14)
18 5
4Q 2013
Adjusted
Earnings
Olefins &
Polyolefins
Specialties,
Aromatics &
Styrenics
Other 4Q 2014
Adjusted
Earnings
$MM
CHEMICALS 4Q 2014 VS. 4Q 2013
30
248 (5) 27
4Q 2014 Adjusted Earnings
418 322
342
(173)
(173)
(109)
17
4Q 2013
Adjusted
Earnings
Atlantic
Basin /
Europe
Gulf
Coast
Central
Corridor
Western /
Pacific
Other
Refining
4Q 2014
Adjusted
Earnings
$MM
REFINING 4Q 2014 VS. 4Q 2013
31
203 (32) 206 12 (67)
4Q 2014 Adjusted Earnings
105
324
202 17
4Q 2013
Adjusted
Earnings
Marketing
& Other
Specialties 4Q 2014
Adjusted
Earnings
$MM
MARKETING AND SPECIALTIES 4Q 2014 VS. 4Q 2013
32
256 68
4Q 2014 Adjusted Earnings
(97) (100)
(4)
3
(2)
4Q 2013
Adjusted
Net Loss
Net Interest
Expense
Corporate
Overhead Other
4Q 2014
Adjusted
Net Loss
$MM
CORPORATE AND OTHER 4Q 2014 VS. 4Q 2013
33
16% 18% 18% 18%
7%10% 12% 11%
26%27% 24% 23%
3%
7%14% 18%
6%
24%
2011 2012 2013 2014
18% 19% 17% 17%
12% 12% 11% 11%
24% 22%22% 23%
15% 17% 19% 21%
22% 23% 26% 23%
Q1 2014 Q2 2014 Q3 2014 Q4 2014
REFINING U.S. ADVANTAGED CRUDE SLATE
34
QUARTERLY
* Includes Shale Oil, Rocky Mountain Sweet (Casper, Wyoming), Mississippian Lime
(Oklahoma) and Granite Wash (Texas Panhandle)
Other Light/Medium
Tight Oil*
Other Heavy
Canadian Heavy
WTI Based
Total 91% 93% 95% 95% 52% 62% 74% 94% Total
ANNUAL
Other Light/Medium
Tight Oil*
Other Heavy
Canadian Heavy
WTI Based
Year 4Q 3Q Year 4Q
Phillips 66
Net Income (Loss) Attributable to Phillips 66 4,762$ 1,147$ 1,180$ 3,726$ 826$
Adjustments:
Asset dispositions (494) (385) (109) (23) -
Impairments 200 131 69 - -
Exit of business line - - - 34 -
Tax law impacts - - - (17) -
Pending claims and settlements (10) (10) - (16) -
Lower-of-cost-or-market inventory adjustments 30 30 - - -
Discontinued Operations (706) - - (61) (18)
Adjusted Net Income (Loss) Attributable to Phillips 66 3,782$ 913$ 1,140$ 3,643$ 808$
Net Income (Loss) Attributable to Phillips 66 Per Share of Common Stock (dollars) 8.33$ 2.05$ 2.09$ 6.02$ 1.37$
Adjusted Net Income (Loss) Attributable to Phillips 66 Per Share of Common Stock (dollars) 6.62$ 1.63$ 2.02$ 5.89$ 1.34$
Millions of Dollars
Except as Indicated
20132014
35
NON-GAAP RECONCILIATIONS
36
NON-GAAP RECONCILIATIONS
Year 4Q 3Q Year 4Q
Midstream
Net Income (Loss) Attributable to Phillips 66 507$ 96$ 115$ 469$ 121$
Adjustments:
Lower-of-cost-or-market inventory adjustments 1 1 - - -
Adjusted Net Income (Loss) Attributable to Phillips 66 508$ 97$ 115$ 469$ 121$
Chemicals
Net Income (loss) Attributable to Phillips 66 1,137$ 267$ 230$ 986$ 261$
Adjustments:
Impairments 69 - 69 - -
Lower-of-cost-or-market inventory adjustments 3 3 - - -
Adjusted Net Income (Loss) Attributable to Phillips 66 1,209$ 270$ 299$ 986$ 261$
Millions of Dollars
Except as Indicated
20132014
37
NON-GAAP RECONCILIATIONS
Year 4Q 3Q Year 4Q
Refining
Net Income (Loss) Attributable to Phillips 66 1,771$ 517$ 558$ 1,747$ 418$
Adjustments:
Asset dispositions (369) (369) - - -
Impairments 131 131 - - -
Tax law impacts - - - (13) -
Lower-of-cost-or-market inventory adjustments 26 26 - - -
Pending claims and settlements 17 17 - - -
Adjusted Net Income (Loss) Attributable to Phillips 66 1,576$ 322$ 558$ 1,734$ 418$
Marketing & Specialties
Net Income (Loss) Attributable to Phillips 66 1,034$ 367$ 368$ 894$ 105$
Adjustments:
Asset dispositions (125) (16) (109) (23) -
Pending claims and settlements (27) (27) - (16) -
Exit of business line - - - 34 -
Tax law impacts - - - (4) -
Adjusted Net Income (Loss) Attributable to Phillips 66 882$ 324$ 259$ 885$ 105$
Millions of Dollars
Except as Indicated
20132014
38
NON-GAAP RECONCILIATIONS
Year 4Q 3Q Year 4Q
Refining - Atlantic Basin/Europe
Net Income (Loss) Attributable to Phillips 66 203$ 72$ 125$ 27$ (139)$
Adjustments:
Impairments 131 131 - - -
Tax law impacts - - - (7) -
Adjusted Net Income (Loss) Attributable to Phillips 66 334$ 203$ 125$ 20$ (139)$
Refining - Gulf Coast
Net Income (Loss) Attributable to Phillips 66 250$ 12$ 43$ 59$ 185$
Adjustments: - - - - -
Adjusted Net Income (Loss) Attributable to Phillips 66 250$ 12$ 43$ 59$ 185$
Refining - Central Corridor
Net Income (Loss) Attributable to Phillips 66 942$ 191$ 300$ 1,481$ 379$
Adjustments:
Lower-of-cost-or-market inventory adjustments 15 15 - - -
Tax law impacts - - - (3) -
Adjusted Net Income (Loss) Attributable to Phillips 66 957$ 206$ 300$ 1,478$ 379$
Millions of Dollars
Except as Indicated
2014 2013
39
NON-GAAP RECONCILIATIONS
Year 4Q 3Q Year 4Q
Refining - Western/Pacific
Net Income (Loss) Attributable to Phillips 66 306$ 291$ (3)$ 44$ 42$
Adjustments:
Asset dispositions (369) (369) - - -
Lower-of-cost-or-market inventory adjustments 11 11 - - -
Tax law impacts - - (2) -
Adjusted Net Income (Loss) Attributable to Phillips 66 (52)$ (67)$ (3)$ 42$ 42$
Refining - Other
Net Income (Loss) Attributable to Phillips 66 70$ (49)$ 93$ 136$ (49)$
Adjustments:
Pending claims and settlements 17 17 - - -
Tax law impacts - - - (1) -
Adjusted Net Income (Loss) Attributable to Phillips 66 87$ (32)$ 93$ 135$ (49)$
Millions of Dollars
Except as Indicated
2014 2013
40
NON-GAAP RECONCILIATIONS
Year 4Q 3Q Year 4Q
Marketing & Specialties - Marketing & Other
Net Income (Loss) Attributable to Phillips 66 836$ 299$ 325$ 688$ 54$
Adjustments:
Asset dispositions (125) (16) (109) - -
Pending claims and settlements (27) (27) - (16) -
Tax law impacts - - - (4) -
Adjusted Net Income (Loss) Attributable to Phillips 66 684$ 256$ 216$ 668$ 54$
Marketing & Specialties - Specialties
Net Income (Loss) Attributable to Phillips 66 198$ 68$ 43$ 206$ 51$
Adjustments:
Asset dispositions - - - (23) -
Exit of business line - - - 34 -
Adjusted Net Income (Loss) Attributable to Phillips 66 198$ 68$ 43$ 217$ 51$
Except as Indicated
2014 2013
Millions of Dollars
41 * Total equity plus total debt
NON-GAAP RECONCILIATIONS
2014 YTD Phillips 66 Midstream Chemicals RefiningMarketing
& Specialties
Numerator ($MM)
Net Income 4,797 541 1,137 1,771 1,034
After-tax interest expense 173 - - - -
GAAP ROCE earnings 4,970 541 1,137 1,771 1,034
Special Items (980) 1 72 (195) (152)
Adjusted ROCE earnings 3,990 542 1,209 1,576 882
Denominator ($MM)
GAAP average capital employed* 29,634 4,207 4,489 13,377 2,743
Discontinued Operations (96) - - - -
Adjusted average capital employed 29,538 4,207 4,489 13,377 2,743
2014 Adjusted ROCE 14% 13% 27% 12% 32%
2014 GAAP ROCE 17% 13% 25% 13% 38%