Pearl Imada IboshiPearl Imada Iboshi
Department of Business, Economic Department of Business, Economic Development & TourismDevelopment & Tourism
Current Hawaii Economic Conditions
August 21, 2009August 21, 2009
-4.0%
-2.0%
0.0%
2.0%
4.0%
6.0%
8.0%
10.0%
1978 1982 1986 1990 1994 1998 2002 2006 2010
Real product, 1978 to 2012 (% change from previous year)
2008-9 have been challenging times for Hawaii
Source: US Bureau of Economic Analysis and Hawai‘i State Department of Business, Economic Development and Tourism
The sharp decrease in jobs is unprecedented
Source: Hawaii State Department of Labor and Industrial Relations and Department of Business, Economic Development & Tourism
500,000
520,000
540,000
560,000
580,000
600,000
620,000
640,000
660,000
1990
.1
1991
.1
1992
.1
1993
.1
1994
.1
1995
.1
1996
.1
1997
.1
1998
.1
1999
.1
2000
.1
2001
.1
2002
.1
2003
.1
2004
.1
2005
.1
2006
.1
2007
.1
2008
.1
2009
.1
Pers
ons
& N
um
ber of Jo
bs
Year
Hawaii has lost 29,100 jobs in the last Hawaii has lost 29,100 jobs in the last two yearstwo years
Source: Hawaii State Department of Labor and Industrial RelationsThrough 2nd Quarter 2009
Total Wage & Salary Total Wage & Salary JobsJobs
638,350 (4638,350 (4thth Quarter Quarter 2007)2007)
609,250 (2609,250 (2ndnd Quarter Quarter 2009)2009)
0.0
2.0
4.0
6.0
8.0
10.0
12.0
Jan-00 Jan-01 Jan-02 Jan-03 Jan-04 Jan-05 Jan-06 Jan-07 Jan-08 Jan-09
Perc
ent
Unemployment Rates - 2000 to 2009*
Our unemployment rate has also jumped, Our unemployment rate has also jumped, but remains below the U.S. averagebut remains below the U.S. average
* Though June 2009, Not seasonally adjusted.
United StatesUnited States
HawaiiHawaii
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics
-8.5%
0.3%
2.6%
5.3%
5.9%
6.5%
6.8%
9.3%
9.6%
9.8%
11.2%
13.2%
13.8%
24.1%
39.9%
-20.00% -10.00% 0.00% 10.00% 20.00% 30.00% 40.00% 50.00%
Agriculture
Federal Government
State Government
Finance & Insurance
Local Government
Real Estate & Rental & Leasing
Accommodation
Retail Trade
Professional & Business Services
Total WAGE & SALARY JOBS
Health Care & Social Assistance
Food Services and Drinking Places
Education Services
Transportation & Warehousing
Natural resources, mining, construction
From 2003 to 2007, the From 2003 to 2007, the sstrongest trongest ggrowth was in rowth was in cconstruction and onstruction and ttransportationransportation
Growth in Jobs
2003 to 2007
Source: Hawaii State Department of Labor and Industrial Relations
3,100
750
-2,350-2,550 -2,550
-3,350 -3,450
-4,750
-6,000
-5,000
-4,000
-3,000
-2,000
-1,000
0
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
Government Health Care & Social Assistance
Professional & Business services
Food Services & Drinking Places
Retail Trade Accommodations Transp., Warehousing,
Util.
Nat. Resources & Mining & Construc.
Nu
mb
er
of J
ob
s
Source: Hawaii State Department of Labor and Industrial Relations
In 2009, the largest decreases have been in In 2009, the largest decreases have been in construction and visitor-related industriesconstruction and visitor-related industries
2.5%
1.3%
-3.1%-4.4%
-8.6% -11.1%
-12.3%
Total Wage & Salary Jobs: -19,750 (-3.1%)
-3.6%
(2009 Year to Date Job (2009 Year to Date Job Growth)Growth)
$0$20$40$60$80
$100$120$140$160$180$200
Jan-00 Jan-01 Jan-02 Jan-03 Jan-04 Jan-05 Jan-06 Jan-07 Jan-08 Jan-09
$ Milli
ons
ResidentialCommercial & IndustrialAdditions and Alterations
* Additions and Alterations and Commercial & Industrial data do not include Kauai. All data through April 2009 Source: County building departments.
12-Month Moving Average of Building Authorization Components*
The value of private building permits continues to fall
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
900
Jan-9
5
Jan-9
6
Jan-9
7
Jan-9
8
Jan-9
9
Jan-0
0
Jan-0
1
Jan-0
2
Jan-0
3
Jan-0
4
Jan-0
5
Jan-0
6
Jan-0
7
Jan-0
8
Jan-0
9
Monthly Construction Tax Base in millions $US 1990-2009
Through June 2009Through April 2009
Construction Put-in-Place and Jobs Decline
15,000
20,000
25,000
30,000
35,000
40,000
45,000
Jan
-95
Jan
-96
Jan
-97
Jan
-98
Jan
-99
Jan
-00
Jan
-01
Jan
-02
Jan
-03
Jan
-04
Jan
-05
Jan
-06
Jan
-07
Jan
-08
Jan
-09
State of Hawaii Construction Jobs Monthly 1990-2009
Source: Hawai‘i State Department of Taxation and Hawai‘i State Department of Labor and Industrial Relations
Federal expenditures will continue to increase as planned military housing privatization is substantial at $3.0 billion over the next ten years– Encompassing 15,000 units (approx. 3,900
replacement/renovated units through CY 2008, and 1,400 planned for each of the next few years.)
Federal spending has helped to cushion the decrease in private construction
0
100,000
200,000
300,000
400,000
500,000
600,000
700,000
2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009
State Government capital State Government capital improvement projects (CIP) improvement projects (CIP)
expenditures increaseexpenditures increaseIn thousands of Dollars
Source: State of Hawaii Department of Accounting and General Services
Through 1Q 2009
The Visitor industry has increased its The Visitor industry has increased its importance in Hawaii’s Economy since importance in Hawaii’s Economy since
Statehood Statehood
0
5,000
10,000
15,000
20,000
25,000
30,000
35,000
40,000
45,000
1955 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005
Job C
ount
Year
Note: Federal job count includes civilian employees but not enlisted militarySource: Department of Business, Economic Development & Tourism Databook, Department of Labor & Industrial Relations, Annual Labor Force Estimates.
Hotel
Federal
Agriculture
Job count, State of Hawaii, 1955-2005
The fall in visitor arrivals in 2008 and 2009 The fall in visitor arrivals in 2008 and 2009 has been dramatic has been dramatic
International
Domestic
Total
Source: Hawai‘i State Department of Business, Economic Development and Tourism
Visitor Arrivals to Hawaii: 1951 to 2008Visitor Arrivals to Hawaii: 1951 to 2008
Visitor arrivals continued to fall in Visitor arrivals continued to fall in the first half of 2009, but are the first half of 2009, but are
beginning to stabilizebeginning to stabilize
400,000
450,000
500,000
550,000
600,000
650,000
700,000
750,000
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
Visito
rs
Total Visitor Arrivals by air 2007 to 2009
2007
2008
2009
Source: Hawai‘i State Department of Business, Economic Development and Tourism
Through July 2009
Short-term & Long-term visitor Short-term & Long-term visitor projectionsprojections
Visitor arrival growth may be affected by modest long term
growth path
$9,844
$10,648
$11,650
$12,243
$12,578
$11,182
9,000
9,500
10,000
10,500
11,000
11,500
12,000
12,500
13,000
2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008
Visitor expenditures have fallen more than Visitor expenditures have fallen more than arrivalsarrivals
Hawai‘i State Department of Business, Economic Development and Tourism
(in million of $US)
8.2% 9.4% 5.1%
Year over Year
Growth2.7% -11.1%
Year over Year
Growth
Year over Year
Growth
Year over Year
Growth
Year over Year
Growth
Total Annual Visitor Expenditure (Arrivals by Air): 2003 to 2008Total Annual Visitor Expenditure (Arrivals by Air): 2003 to 2008
Scheduled airseats now at 2008 Scheduled airseats now at 2008 levelslevels
500,000
550,000
600,000
650,000
700,000
750,000
800,000
850,000
900,000
950,000
JAN FEB MAR APR MAY JUN JUL AUG SEP OCT NOV DEC
2008
2009
2008
Source: ADI Global Airport Industry Database / OAG Schedule Detail
Scheduled Airseats 2008 & Scheduled Airseats 2008 & 20092009
Blue Chip Forecast for U.S. and Japan Real GDP Growth
2008 2009 2010
United States
0.4 -2.6 2.3
Source: Blue Chip Forecast, August 2009
2008 2009 2010
Japan -0.7 -6.2 1.3
External ConditionsExternal Conditions
Summary of Actual and Forecasted Key Economic Indicators for Hawaii: CY 2007 to 2009
(Annual % Change)
ActualCY 2008
ForecastedCY 2009
ForecastedCY 2010
Total Population 0.8% 0.8% 0.8%
Visitor Arrivals -10.6% -5.9% 1.2%
Visitor Expenditures -11.0% -11.5% 2.9%
Honolulu CPI-U 4.3% 0.6% 1.5%
Personal Income 4.0% 1.0% 1.5%
Real Personal Income -0.2% 0.4% 0.0%
Total Wage and Salary Jobs -1.0% -3.0% -0.4%
Source: Department of Business, Economic Development & Tourism
Projected Other Civilian Population and Growth to 2035,
By Selected Age Groups
Substantial numbers of people will be leaving the Labor Force in the future
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