Parties, Elections and Inequality
• What is the class / income basis of parties– See 1/19
• Why do pundits say rich (blue state) voters are D & poor (red state) voters are R?– ‘What’s the matter w/ Kansas?’
• How can inequality increase if there are fewer rich voters?
Income and Party ID
1952 1968 1980 1996 2000 2008
Low income 64% 65% 60% 63% 62% 63%% Democratic
High income 30% 41% 32% 41% 36% 28%% Democratic
What’s The Matter w/ Kansas?
• Argument:– Individual level: Many less affluent / working class
voters support GOP & GOP policies that make the rich richer
– ‘Post materialist’ • Organized labor less relevant in Dem coalition• Christian Conservatives more relevant in GOP
What’s The Matter w/ Kansas?
• Argument (H&P p. 145-8):– Sushi loving, latte-sipping, tree-hugging, alt
lifestyle costal cosmopolitians
– vs
– NASCAR-loving, gun-toting, traditional values, business owning rural / suburbanites
Red State vs. Blue State<-2004 D’s win CA $37KNY $40KNJ $44KCT $48K WA $36K MA $44K MN $37KMD $42K
2008->
Rs winAL $29KMS $25KAR $26K UT $27KSC $28KWV $26KKY $28K
What’s the Matter w/ the Argument?
• Do less affluent people elect Republicans?
• Do rich people elect Democrats?
What’s the Matter w/ the Argument?
• Gelman• Argument works at state level, but not level of
voters– Aggregation problem
• Richer states do support Democrats– Over time, a weaker relationship between income
and voting in richest states
What’s the Matter w/ the Argument?
• Gelman• Poorer states do support GOP– Wealthy voters in poor states now more GOP than
20 years ago
– Less affluent voters in poor states still solidly Democratic
Relationship between income and Party vote
Gelman et al p. 357
Slope strongest in poor, rural Republican red states (MS, AR, WV, LA)Weakest in urban, rich, Dem states (CT, MA, NJ, NY, WA, CO)
What’s the Matter….?
• Economic issues more relevant in poorer states?– Opposite of the ‘Kansas’ story
• Why?– Race?– Postmaterialism?
Elections, Parties and Inequality
• Politically, how does inequality increase over time?
• Democratic theory– The have nots will tax those who have• Far more middle class / working class than rich
– Equilibrium theory• If inequality too great, easy for a redistributionist
majority party to form• Limits to redistribution
Elections, Parties and Inequality
• Politically, how does inequality increase over time?– “Theory” ‘works’ in many affluent, established
democracies– But since 1970s, income inequality rising in US
Elections, Parties and Inequality
• What’s this got to do with political parties and voters?– Government policies affect income distribution
– Voters reward / punish parties based on economic performance (overall)
– Do they vote based on economic policies that affect income distribution?
Elections, Parties and Inequality
• What’s this got to do with political parties and voters?– Government policies affect income distribution– What policies?• “Bush” Tax cuts, capital gains tax cuts (trillions of $)• Health care law• Payroll tax cut• Unemployment benefits• Labor organizing laws• Minimum wage laws
Elections, Parties and Inequality
• What’s this got to do with political parties and voters?– Do voters care about
inequality– 2002,Before Occupy:
• Most thought gap was larger, many though it a bad thing
Elections, Parties and Inequality
• What’s this got to do with political parties and voters?– Do voters understand how policies affect
inequality• 55% in 2000 said ‘rich people’ would benefit most from
Bush Tax cuts• But
– voters indifferent about cuts (40%), or didn’t understand
Voters and inequality
• They don’t get it? (2002)– People don’t know if they pay more in income tax
or social security tax– 42% don’t know if Americans pay more/less than
W. Europeans– 61% hadn’t heard about corporate tax cut– 60% didn’t know if cuts should expire in 2011
Voters and Inequality
• Can this be a large issue in the 2012 election• Opportunity argument– Voters aspire to be wealthy• Support policies that make rich richer because they
want someday to be rich• Support these policies because they do not want to ‘kill
the goose that lays golden eggs’• Philosophical support (Capitalism, freedom, etc.)
Voters and Inequality
• Can this be a large issue in the 2012 election?• Who trust about nation’s economy?– Obama 44%– GOP Congress 40%
Voters and Inequality
• Increase taxes on “higher income” Americans– 67% yes, 30% no (11/8/11)
• To lower the deficit, tax HHs of $1m, or not tax them? 12/18/11 10/2/11– Tax increase 60% 64%– No increase 35% 30%
Voters and Inequality
• Let Bush tax cuts expire on HHs over $250K (11/17/11)– 53% yes, 36% no– 49% yes, 43% no (11/8/11)
• Too much power in hands of a few rich people and large corporations?– 77% yes, 19% no