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Committee on Energy Review of Energy sector in Pakistan
Insaf Research Wing Page 2
Insaf Research Wing (IRW) is a part of Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf (PTI) reporting to the secretary general. IRW
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Table of Contents
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY .............................................................................................................................................................. 4
ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS ............................................................................................................................................................ 5 BACKGROUND .................................................................................................................................... 6
AIMS AND OBJECTIVES....................................................................................................................... 6
WORLD ELECTRICITY GENERATION ................................................................................................. 7
TOTAL WORLD ELECTRICITY GENERATION BY FUEL (2006).......................................................................................... 7
COAL AND ELECTRICITY ............................................................................................................................................... 7
SOURCES OF ELECTRICITY IN PAKISTAN ..................................................................................................................... 8
DISTRIBUTION LOSSES IN ELECTRICITY ....................................................................................................................... 8
EFFICIENCY LOSSES IN ELECTRICITY ............................................................................................................................. 8
CIRCULAR DEBT ............................................................................................................................................................. 8
GAS EXPLORATION AND IMPORTS (LNG) ................................................................................................................. 9
GAS THEFT AND LEAKAGE............................................................................................................................................ 9 THAR COAL PROJECT .................................................................................................................................................. 10
ALTERNATIVE ENERGY RESOURCES ........................................................................................................................... 10
ROLE OF THE REGULATORY BODIES (OGRA, NEPRA) ........................................................................................ 10
INVESTMENT OPTIONS ................................................................................................................................................ 10
SHORT TERM (3-18 MONTHS) ................................................................................................................................... 11
MEDIUM TERM (2-5 YEARS) ........................................................................................................................................ 11
LONG TERM (5-10 YEARS).......................................................................................................................................... 11
REFERENCES ............................................................................................................................................................................. 13
ABOUT THE AUTHOR ............................................................................................................................................................ 13
INDEX A ................................................................................................................................................................................... 14
INDEX B ................................................................................................................................................................................... 15
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Acknowledgements
A very special thanks to Mr Munawar Baseer Ahmed, former managing director PEPCO and SSGC. He was a
source of great inspiration and provided help in electricity and gas insight to Pakistan’s current energy crisis.
I would also like to express my gratitude to Mr Asim Khan President PTI London who introduced me to IRW
and very special thanks to Mr Asad Mahmood, Coordinator IRW, who is always helpful to facilitate and
encourage members in Insaf Research Wing (IRW).
I would also like to express thanks to my parents, family and friends for their support, encouragement,
constructive criticism and suggestions throughout the course of the research work.
Lastly it is hoped that this paper will be used in stimulating thought, self reflection and valuable discussion
amongst Central Executive Committee (CEC), PTI members, academics and provide as valuable a learning
experience for them as it has for the author.
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IntroductionThe paper will highlight the energy mix consisting
of oil, gas, electricity, coal and alternative resourcesavailable to Pakistan. The paper will then discuss
current shortages in energy sector including
electricity and gas and available solutions for short,
medium and long term solutions.
Background
Pakistan has been suffering from acute shortage of
energy due to a lack of political will, incompetent
institutions, deteriorated law and order situation in
the country and absence of level playing field for
foreign and local investors.
Since independence, Pakistan has built only 13
dams while India has built more than 1,500 dams.
Similarly China has built 80,000 dams out of which
20,000 dams are relatively large dams including the
world’s biggest hydro dam known as Three Gorges
Dam (capacity of 22,500 MW). Pakistan has a
potential of above 100,000 MW 100,000 MW with
identified sites of 59000 MW including 44334 MW
on Indus River alone but due to infighting amongvarious political parties, corruption, and
manipulation of bureaucracy nothing has been
done in this regard. As a result, the entire country is
suffering in its domestic life, industry, commercial,
exports and local businesses. Since, the problem
has not been addressed it has become very
challenging for any government to meet the energy
demands for the foreseeable future.
The electricity shortfall is made worse by increasing
gas shortages as well. The install capacity of electricity is around 21,036 MW but due to circular
debt, line losses and theft we are unable to
generate electricity. As a result continuous load
shedding, and unscheduled power outages are
everyday story for all segments of Pakistan.
Many economic experts believe Pakistan is losing
around 2-3% of GDP every year due to the energy
crisis and if the problem is not addressed
immediately the flight of capital and collapse of
economy will be inescapable.
Pakistan has been blessed with ample water
resources but can store only 13% of the annual flow
of its rivers. The storage is fast depleting due to
sedimentation. In contrast USA has developed
497% storage capacity of annual flow of RiverColorado; Egypt possesses 281% of River Nile and
India 35% on Sutlej-Bias Basin. All these statistics
warrant construction of a number of reservoirs to
enhance availability of water which stands at 1070
cubic meter per capita. Anything below 1000 cubic
meter will lead to a water crisis.
With regards to coal reserves there is increasing
controversy among proven reserves of coal in
Pakistan. Some experts believe that Pakistan has
the world’s 2nd
largest reserves while others claimto be the 5
thlargest. However, Pakistan stands on
19th
position on world coal proven reserves with 0.3
of total share1.
Similarly, Pakistan has the world’s 28th
largest gas
reserves according to World Fact Book2. Ironically
the country with so much energy potential is on an
energy meltdown. In the overall energy mix, the
share of coal power is only 7% as compared to
world average of 40%. Coal is the main source for
producing cheaper electricity and the Governmentneeds to enhance the share of coal in the overall
energy mix of up to 18% by 2025.
Aims and Objectives
This paper has been drafted in order to identify the
problem areas in the current energy crisis facing
Pakistan. There is immense potential in different
areas; the paper will also seek to provide practical,
workable solutions for short, medium and long
term to meet Pakistan’s energy requirements.
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Sources of Electricity Main sources of electricity are:
Coal
Gas
Hydro
Oil
Nuclear
Alternative/renewable
World Electricity Generation
There are many sources of electricity generation inthe modern age where coal provides 41% of world
electricity. Others sources include gas 20%, hydro
16%, nuclear 15%, Oil 6%, and others 2% which
includes solar, wind, combustible renewable,
geothermal & waste3.
Modern life is out of oxygen without electricity. It
lights houses, buildings, streets, provides domestic
and industrial heat, and powers most equipment
used in homes, offices and machinery in factories.
Improving access to electricity is vital to alleviatingpoverty.
Coal plays a vital role in electricity generation
worldwide. Coal-fired power plants currently fuel
41% of global electricity. In some countries, coal
fuels a higher percentage of electricity.
Total World Electricity Generation by Fuel (2006)
Source: IEA 2008
*Other includes solar, wind, combustible
renewables, geothermal & waste
Coal and Electricity
Coal in Electricity Generation
South Africa 93% Poland 92% PR China 79%
Australia 77% Kazakhstan 70%India 69%
Israel 63% Czech Rep 60% Morocco 55%
Greece 52% USA 49% Germany 46%
Ironically Pakistan’s current energy supply comes
primarily from indigenous natural gas which is 45%,
oil imports at 35% of the energy mix, with the
balance from hydro at 12%, coal at 6% and nuclear
at 2% respectively. Pakistan’s production of energy
from coal is abysmal when compared to the
advanced economies mentioned above like US,
China, Germany and Greece which are heavily
relying on Coal.
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Sources of Electricity in Pakistan
Pakistan has 13 hydro power plants which are vital
for the country’s energy requirement as well as key
water reservoirs for agriculture. The electricity
produced from these dams varies yearly from 6500
to 2300 in summer and winter respectively. Hydro
electricity is still the cheapest source of electricity
in Pakistan with a total capacity of 21,036. Out of
which 6,516 MW is produced through Hydropower,
3,580 MW by Government (GENCOs), 8,295 MW by
Independent Private Power Producers (IPPs) and
594 MW through Private Rental.
Unit Cost of Different Sources of Energy
WAPDA is producing hydropower at Rs.1.06 per
unit as compared to Rs.9.07 per unit of thermal
power being produced by the IPPs and Rs.14.74 of
thermal power produced by Rental Power. The
demand of power is currently about 20,000 MWwhich will rise to 36,000 MW by the year 2015.
WAPDA has added 72 MW to the system in 2010
whereas it will add 1556.76 MW when Duber
Khwar HPP (130 MW), Allai Khwar (121 MW),
Jinnah HPP (96 MW), Gomal Zam Dam (17.4 MW),
Satpara Dam (17.36 MW), Rehabilitation of Tarbela
(100 MW) will produce power within 2012.
Distribution Losses in Electricity
PEPCO has line losses of 26% while, NationalElectric Power Regulatory Authority (NEPRA) line
losses of up to 16%. Some distribution companies
like Hyderabad Electric Supply Company, Peshawar
Electric Supply Company, Quetta Electric Supply
Company and Multan Electric Supply Company
collectively losing Rs 90 Billion in distributionsystem. The most efficient of all is Islamabad
Electric Supply Company with 8% distribution
losses. The losses are due to poor maintenance of
Wapda power generation costing around 6 Billion
due to inefficiencies. Similarly, National
Transmission and Dispatch Company (NTDC) is
losing power worth Rs 6 Billion annually in
transmission4.
Efficiency Losses in Electricity
Three major thermal companies in Muzaffargarh,
Guddu and Jamshoro, with a combined installed
capacity of 2800 MW can hardly produce 1700MW
and that too at an output efficiency of only 25%5.
Circular Debt
Wapda has a install capacity of above 22500 MW,
but due to gap in pricing it is unable to produce the
electricity. Wapda was producing electricity from
hydro and gas plants and some from furnace oil.
Due to the rapid growth of CNG, the demand of gas
has soared while new reserves have not been
discovered. As a result it has become impossible to
provide gas to the power sector which in turn
provides either expensive electricity or is forced to
stay idle adding in circular debt. In fact gas reserves
are not enough to meet industry requirements.
There is a huge gap of 1000 – 1500 mcf per daywhich needs to be bridged immediately. Major
industries have been closed due to the energy
crisis. The government and policy makers have to
take tough decisions and prioritize between
industry and CNG which many believe the latter is
mostly owned by the politicians. The current
circular debt is around 600-700 Bn consisting of
loans from local banks. Government is payingaround Rs 40-50 Bn interest to banks.
1.06
9.07
14.74
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
Hydropower IPPs RPPs
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Gas and
LiquefiedNatural Gas(LNG)
Gas is one of the important energy sources in
Pakistan. Pakistan is the world largest consumer of
gas both in private and public transport with over
2.5 million vehicles using the CNG as fuel. The gas
was half the price as compared to other sources of
fuel like oil, so over the years, Pakistan has
witnessed a mushroom growth of CNG stations
throughout the country specially Punjab. Realizing
the negative impact the current defunct
government is trying to reduce the gap between
gas and oil, but is unable to meet the gas
requirements of the industry. Many industries are
being shut due to gas shortage specially textile
which alone in last FY 2010-11 produced 60% of
exports.
Gas Exploration and Imports (LNG)
Pakistan has immense potential in further gas and
oil exploration. The exploration of oil fields around
the world is 1 to 10 where as Pakistan rates 3 to 10.
However the major hurdles are a lack of vision,
incompetence, low rate of drillings, demand of
heavy commissions from bureaucracy and absence
of level playing field for investors and international
companies.
Pakistan was already suffering from electricity
shortages for a decade but the problem is further
compounded with gas shortages due to the growth
of CNG, depletion of current gas reserves and poor
planning of LNG imports. Turkmenistan,
Afghanistan, Pakistan and India (TAPI) gas pipeline
and Iran, Pakistan and India pipeline has been
debated and written by many experts in both the
print and electronic media however will remain adream. Both Sui Southern Gas Company (SSGC) and
Sui Northern Gas Pipeline Limited (SNGPL) were
supposed to invest around $1.2 billion to $1.4
billion to create an additional capacity in their
pipeline networks to transport imported LNG to the
consumer, which to date they are unable todevelop
6.
Gas Theft and Leakage
Gas theft and leakage in Pakistan was under control
until 2003-2004 though it never has been to
international standards. The international standard
for theft known as unaccounted-for-gas (UFG) is 1-3
percent whereas the benchmark in Pakistan has
been set at 7%. The two gas utilities, Sui Southern
Gas Company (SSGC) had UFG level at 9.43 percent
in 2010-11 compared to 7.09 percent in 2003-04
while Sui Northern Gas Pipeline Limited (SNGPL)
had UFG level at 11.21 percent in 2010-2011
compared to 6.75 percent seven years ago7. Some
expert says that 500 million cubic feet of gas per
day is stolen, leaked or illegally sold to enrich
private pockets at public expense8.
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Other Projects
Regulatory Bodies andInvestmentOptions
Thar Coal Project
The debate for Thar Coal for Pakistan’s energy
requirement has been the focal point of talk among
different energy experts but yet to see its
fruitation. Thar Coal can singlehandedly meet
Pakistan’s energy requirement if mining levels
above 500 mty are achieved according to Munawar
Baseer and Dr Farid Malik, one of the leading
energy experts. Once achieved, Pakistan can fully
meet its own energy requirements and also
produce surplus energy but no detailed mining
study or applications analysis on economic basis, or
test pit pilot project has been undertaken, an
acceptable bankable study has not been prepared
to-date9.
Alternative Energy Resources
Wind and Solar energy has been much debated
among different advocates. Alternative Energy
Development Board ran a pilot project near Kalar
Kahar but due to unknown reason the project didnot go ahead. There are also numerous articles and
reports about wind projects in Costal Areas of
Pakistan like Gharo, Kati Bandar, Karachi,
Hawksbay, and some areas in FATA as well. The
energy tariffs awarded to 5 different IPPs in wind
by NEPRA ranges from 10 cents to 16 cents which
will further add up in over circular debt10
.
Pakistan is fortunate to benefit from generous
sunshine throughout the year but it is still not
economical unless government provides incentives
to investors and manufacturers. Solar can replace
our current UPS if government provides installment
facility to consumer. It will definitely reduce burden
on grid. In spite of all the benefits, alternative
energy cannot replace our base load which needsto come from hydro, gas, & coal plants in the long
run.
Role of the Regulatory Bodies (OGRA,
NEPRA)
The role of Oil & Gas Regulatory Authority (OGRA)
and National Electric Power Regulatory Authority
(NEPRA) has been inclined to business protection
rather than consumer. Both authorities have failed
to meet demand and supply of market and
Pakistan’s economy is suffering badly due to
demand and supply gap. There were many
instances where public interests were not
protected for instance Rental Power Projects
(RPPs). They have also failed to create an unbiased
image to attract local and foreign investment.
Investment Options
Donors like Asian Development Bank, IMF,World Bank
Private (local & foreign) investment on
small dams, wind, and energy projects
Government Bonds and Wapda Bonds
Advance bill option
Agriculture tax on land using dam water
Quantitative easing (Currency Printing)
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Recommendation
Short Term (3-18 Months)
Enable full fuel supplies to power plants to
reduce power outages by about 25 to 30
percent (1500 MW – 2000 MW) within 3
months.
Fast Track Action to bring on-line stalled
power projects to add 400 MW (Nandi
Pur) in 6 months.
Fast Track local gas production of 350
mmcfd in 6-9 months
Facilitate local LPG production by 200tons/day in three months from available
capacity of processing rich gas, plus
additional 300 tons in six to nine months
from a new plant to reduce LPG shortage
and lower prices.
Discovered gas of 500 mmcfd needed to
bring in supply pool ASAP which is held
back for unknown reasons.
Forceful and coercive actions to control
theft and corruption in power and gas
companies to save Rs. 15 to 20 billion per
month and control circular debt. Recover lost capacity of 1000 MW of
generation companies through emergency
repairs, parts and rehab and reduce load
shedding by 15 percent.
The total customers for domestic,
commercial, trade & industry, and
agricultural are 23 million. Among them,
15.5 million are domestic users. Out of
these 15.5 million domestic users, 5.7
million users are on 50 units’ usage tariff,
and 4.6 are on 100 units’ usage tariff,
causing a lot of theft. It needs to berevised according to load management.
Scrap of Rental Power Projects (RPPs)
immediately and recovered the monies
which has been given in advance to supply
electricity.
Phase out ACs which consumes more
electricity and regulate manufacturer to
only produce ACs with high efficiency &
thermostat setting with range of (22-30).
Use of Bicycle in government and private
sector through media and public
partnership awareness campaigns.
Gas boiler needs to be replaced with
efficient and standby operative facility as
currently geyser or boiler who either run
24/7 or manually controlled to save
energy.
Medium Term (2-5 Years)
War footing completion of projects under
development at Annexure A.
500 MW (Chicho Ki Malian) in 18 months
and 400 MW (Guddu) addition in two
years
Facilitate LNG imports of 1000 mmcfd in
12-18 months with implementation of
private sector LNG projects, as well as LNGto reduce gas load shedding by 70 percent.
Smart prepaid/post-paid meters needs to
be installed in higher theft areas in stages
to reduce losses in PEPCO.
Circular debt reduction by Rs. 250 billion
by recovery/deduction at source of Rs. 100
billion from provincial governments, and
federal agencies and Rs. 150 billion from
private sector.
Energy mix needs to be shifted from POL
to Hydel, Bio-Diesel, and Coal thus
reducing burden on imports of oil whichare around 12 Bn US$ every year.
GENCOs efficiency enhancement through
necessary repairs and rehabilitation.
Theft control – Independent firm hired and
given share from theft recovery for gas
and electricity.
Long Term (5-10 Years)
The launch of new power projects on fast
track for 3,000 MW - 5000 MW.
There is a discovery of 27 Billion Barrel in
Pakistan, but only 3% has been utilized.
More local oil needs to be refined and
influence of cartels needs to be reduced.
Thar Coal project needs to be expedited to
add 3000-4000 MW in 4-5 years time.
Meeting energy requirements by building
dams (Annexure B), awarding new
contracts to gas and oil exploration to in
line with demand and supply requirement
of market.
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Oil base loads needs to be reduced from
35% to single digit by 2025.
Industry, Domestic, and commercial user’s
needs to be educated towards energy
efficient buildings, maximum utilization of
sunlight during the day, and energyefficient home appliances by electronic
and print media campaign.
Energy Saving Targets needs to be set by
public engagement through electronic and
print media, school and university
campaigns.
Transport policy to save fuel and control of
transport through taxation. Public
transport needs to be improved and
subsidized to discourage private
transportation.
Mass transit in big cities like Karachi,Lahore, Islamabad, Faisalabad, Peshawar.
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References
1. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Coal Accessed January 2012
2. https://www.cia.gov/library/publications/the-world-factbook/rankorder/2179rank.html accessed January 2012
3. http://www.worldcoal.org/coal/uses-of-coal/coal-electricity/ accessed January 2012
4. http://tribune.com.pk/story/326078/transmission-issues-power-companies-blamed-for-rs90b-electricity-losses/ accessed January 2012
5. http://www.dawn.com/2011/10/17/slow-progress-on-1bn-genco-plan-worries-adb.html accessed January
20126. http://tribune.com.pk/story/285815/fate-of-mashal-lng-project-unclear/ Accessed January 2012
7. http://tribune.com.pk/story/324213/ogra-likely-to-reject-high-ceiling-for-gas-theft-leakage/ accessed January 2012
8. http://www.thenews.com.pk/TodaysPrintDetail.aspx?ID=85705&Cat=2 accessed January 2012
9. http://jang.com.pk/thenews/jan2012-weekly/moneymatters-16-01-2012/mm_p3.htm Accessed January
201210. http://jang.com.pk/thenews/nov2011-
weekly/moneymatters -07-11-2011/mm_p8.htm
About the Author
The author is a member of the Energy committee.He has been in constant correspondence withenergy experts.
[E-mail: [email protected]]
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Index A
Hydropower Projects Under Completion
Sr
Name of
Project Location
PC-I
Cost (Rs
Billion)
Gen Capty
(MW) Donors/Lenders
Progress/
Completion
1
Mangla Dam
Raising Mirpur, AJK 62.558 644
GOP Funding/
Wada Bonds
Substantially
completed
2 Gomal Zam Dam FATA 12.829 17.4
GOP Funding/
Tariff Financing 59% (Jan 2011)
3 Satpara Dam Gilgit Batistan 4.397 15.8 GOP funding 87% (Oct 2010)
4 Khan Khwar Besham, KPK 5.363 72
IDB/Wapda Bond,
Tariff financing 94% (Oct 2010)
5 Duber Khwar Kohistan, KPK 9.754 130
IDB/Wapda Bond,
Tariff financing 74% (Jan 2011)
6 Allai Khwar
Battagram,
KPK 8.578 121
IDB/Wapda Bond,
Tariff financing 51% (Oct 2011)
7 Jinnah Jinnah Barrage 7.68 96
Chinese Supplier's
Credit/Tariff Fin 94% (Jun 2011)
8
Jabban
Rehabilitation Malakand, KPK 3.734 22
afd France/Tariff
Fin 5% (June 2013)
9 Neelam Jhelum AJK 130 969
Surcharge/Middle
East
donors/CEXIM 13% (Oct 2016)
Total 2087.2