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On the horns of the food-energy-
climate change trilemma:
Towards a socio-economic analysis
Professor Mark Harvey
National Chengchi University, Taipei
May 26, 2014
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Interactions between socio-economies and
natural resource environments
• Climate change and finitudes of resources: the importance of land and food
• A neo-Polanyian analytical framework: political economies IN natural resource environments
• The Very Long View and the Long View: Ruddiman and Pomeranz
• The natural science ‘anthropogenic’ representation of the contemporary food-energy-climate change trilemma
• Towards a sociogenic analysis of emergent sustainability crises (finitudes, climate change, biodiversity……)
• The Brazilian trajectory – a Much Shorter View
• CHINA – the emergent sustainability crisis
• The politico-economic challenges
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A neo-Polanyian approach
Economy
SOCIETY
LAWCULTURE
POLITY
NATURE
SOCIETY
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From anthropogenesis to sociogenesis of
sustainability crises
• Limits to Growth versus “limitless innovation”.
– “Planetary boundaries” and “stabilisation wedges”
• The reductionist conception of neoliberalist
capitalism (political ecology, resource
geography). Commodification of nature,
marketisation, deregulation.
• Multiple politico-economic trajectories in different
resource environments
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The Very Long View
The significance of agricultural societies
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The domestication of crops
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The Long View
The “Great Divergence” (Pomeranz)
• Finitudes of land and energy resources in 18th century Europe, South East Asia and China
• The European (English) and American great escape: the growth of colonial plantation economies.
• Land under cultivation expanded by 466% between 1760 and 1890 (Meyer and Turner, 1992). (North America:6,000%)
• The 30 million ‘ghost acres’ of land resources available to English exploitation.
• The industrial revolution: coal + cotton + sugar
• The distinctive North European trilemma trajectory, involving food, energy, and generation of climate change
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Revisiting the industrial revolution
• Finite resources: wood, peat, coal, land….
• Burning coal PLUS Land Use Change
+
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CLIMATE
CHANGE
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THE CONTEMPORARY TRILEMMA:
INTERLOCKING CRISES –
UNPRECEDENTED HISTORICAL CIRCUMSTANCES
LAND
USEPetro-chemical
resource
depletion
Biomass
for energy
and
materials Global
Climate
Change
Increased
energy and
materials
demand
Increased
and
changing
food
demand
Harvey, M.
and Pilgrim,
S. 2011, Food
Policy Journal
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Different socio-economies generate different trilemmas
GHG emissions
from
Source: UN Emissions
Gap Report, 2012
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Flaring of gas from shale and tight oil
reserves, 2013
USA: a political economy dominated by energy security.
No consensus on climate change mitigation. Huge internal
inequalities in carbon footprint between rich and poor
Over 80% of
GHG emissions
from
Energy consumption
Industry
Transport
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The Brazilian trajectory
Responding to energy finitudes – then
climate change• 1970-1985. Oil crises, energy security and Pro-Alcool programmes for bio-
ethanol from sugarcane.
• Stalling growth of biofuels under Washington Consensus 1985-2000
• 2000- Energy security, plus climate change mitigation – the Flex-Fuel Vehicle and biodiesel. Sustainability and quality certification for international markets.
• With hydroelectric power, Brazil has 29% renewable energy, compared with world average of 11%
• Renewables for energy security, drawing on natural environmental resources of sun, rain and land.
• Politically driven reconfiguration of the Brazilian economy of energy.
THE WORLD’S GREENEST ECONOMY?? Exploiting new oil fields?
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Brazil – sugarcane ethanol
Stagnation and
reduction of subsidies
for ethanolProAlcool
I
20%
mandate
ProAlcoòl
II
100%
Ethanol
cars
Fuel Price
De-
regulation
The FFV
BoomMajor coordinating for (partially)
state-owned Petrobras
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Brazilian Trajectory: emergent sustainability
crises• World’s largest exporter of poultry, red meat, coffee and sugar;
second largest exporter of soya and soya oil; third largest exporter of corn (maize)
• The “arc of fire” replaced by Zero Deforestation Policy, REDD+, and IBAMA: “Tropical Keynesianism?” (Hecht, 2011).
• Roundtables on Sustainable Soy, The ‘Soy Moratorium’, Better Sugar Initiative.
– But NO sustainability regulation for meat or poultry.
• Crises of land use change driven by global food demand
• Crises of energy resources from hydroelectric power
• Threats to GHG emissions, biodiversity, human displacement
• Distinctive political responses to Brazilian trilemma challenges in a distinctive environmental resource context.
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The China-Brazil Soy Commodity Complex
A MAJOR TRILEMMA TWIST: COMBINING TRAJECTORIES
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China invests $7.5 billion in Brazilian Soy
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The emergent sustainability crisis in China
• Immediate pollution (air, WATER): long-term climate change (20-30% of arable land contaminated, FAO 2013)
• Market and subsidy driven unsustainable intensification (fertilizers, pesticides….).Food security and the market growth model. Politics driving the market, market driving the politics?
• Finite resources of poor quality land (low per capita agricultural land, (China 0.08 pc, UK 0.10, US 0.5, Brazil 0.37)
• Fragmentation of land tenure, the Household Responsibility System (0.5 hectares to 1.5 hectares)
• Socially unsustainable transformation of rural population through urban migration – yet short term stabilisation.
• Barriers to scaling up, regulation, education, innovation..
A DISTINCTIVE SOCIOECONOMY-NATURE
INTERACTION DYNAMIC LEADING TO CRISIS
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Visions of the
emergent sustainability
crisis
Source: Zhang et al. 2013 Nature
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Politico-economic challenges in natural
environmental contexts
• Situating diverse economic trajectories in space and time in their natural environmental contexts (The Very Long, the Long, and the Much Shorter Views)
• Understanding the political dynamics of socio-economic trajectories
• Understanding the different dynamics of the three poles of the trilemma.
• Responding to food demand, and the new competition for land.
• Food or energy security versus climate change mitigation.
• The role of the state in different political economies.