Download - ODSC Hackathon for Health October 2016
© Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation
© Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation |
▪ Multiple variables may affect each outcome
▪ Relative impact of different variables may vary in different contexts
▪ It’s difficult to know how to intervene most effectively
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These problems are extremely complex and affected by multiple, interrelated variables
© Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation | 7
HBGD is seeking the answers to five critical questions
Interaction Between Growth & Development Outcomes
Growth Outcomes Determinants
Pathways
1Can we quantitatively characterize the relation and interaction between preterm birth, physical growth, and brain development?
To what extent is growth faltering explained by pre- vs postnatal insults?
What kind of recovery can we expect in infants born small for gestational age (SGA)?
Are there disproportionately large contributions on growth faltering from certain pathways, and can we rank-order risk factors?
Are there specific pathways directly impacting linear growth faltering that coincide with increased risk of noncommunicable diseases such as cardiovascular disease, obesity, and diabetes?
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HBGDki is building a knowledge base to help answer the questions
Region No. of Studies No. of Subjects No. of Countries
United States 66 8,684,868 1
Asia/Pacific 33 590,641 7
Americas (except USA) 13 56,652 5
Africa 12 55,340 10
Europe/Middle East 7 111,952 2
Total 122* 9,499,453 25
*Total < sum of different regions because some studies spanned several regions.
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HBGDki moves from data to discovery to decisions
KNOWLEDGE BASE
CAUSAL
POPULATION
EMPIRICAL
MECHANISTIC
NEW INSIGHTS
Multiple Modeling Methods
Data
Build a knowledge base of existing research data
Discovery
Apply multiple modeling methods to answer questions faster and deeper
Decisions
Inform comprehensive intervention decisions to prevent preterm birth, growth faltering, and neurocognitive deficits
© Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation | 10
▪ Nadir extremes: ▪ Fraction of children
below HAZ=-2 at nadir.
▪ Recovery age: ▪ Age (after nadir) at
which less than 10% of children are below HAZ=-2.
HBGDki analyses are already yielding new insightsA 600 gram difference in birth weight can cost ~8 years in growth recovery
© Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation | 11
HBGDki can help promote precision public health: the right intervention for the right child at the right time WHO
WHAT
WHEN
HOW
WHERE
Preterm, small for gestational age, growth faltering, and others
Nutrition, vaccines, sanitation, vector control, and others
Fetal growth and development, birth, and motor milestones
Preventive and/or therapeutic
Urban vs rural, wet vs dry, and others
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Precision public health pinpoints the right dose to get the best response
max
min
Dose
Beneficial Childhood Response
Adverse Adult Response
Physical Growth
Diabetes Obesity Cardiovascular
too hightoo low optimal
min
max
Neurocognitive Development