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Ocean variability to ecosystemlinks in the Northern California Current
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1960 1970 1980 1990 2000
PD
O
-15
-10
-5
0
5
10
15
Coho Salmon
YEAR1960 1970 1980 1990 2000
Per
cent
Sur
viva
l
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
PDO
1960 1970 1980 1990 2000-200
-100
0
100
200
300
400
Am
omal
y of
N
o. o
f adu
lts (t
hous
ands
) re
turn
ing
to s
paw
n
Spring Chinook Salmonmean = 108,000
The PDO and salmon survival correlate
in the NCC
Slide: W.T. Peterson
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Copepod species composition shifts seasonally with interannual anomalies:
Hooff and Peterson 2006
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-2
-1
0
1
2
CCI s
core
1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 20081996
PC1
of co
pepo
ds
CCI Timeseries
Oregon “Copepod Community Index” = CCIOrdination Axis 1 scores
-2
-1
0
1
2
CCI s
core
Warm Cold Warm Cold
Monthly anomalies
1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 20081996
PDO:CCI correlation R = 0.5, p<0.01
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Calanus
Warm yearsCold years
Copepod Community relates to salmon survival:
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Vancouver Island
Central Oregon
Central California
Southern California
Anomalies in zooplankton species groups show coherence along the Pacific US coast:
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Synchrony among North East Pacific time series(Mackas and Beaugrand 2010)
CalCOFI stratification from McGowan et al. 2003BC/OR (British Columbia/Oregon) from Mackas et al. 2004CA (California) from Rebstock (2002) and Lavaniegos & Ohman (2003)Kuroshio region (KUR) from Nakata & Hidaka (2003)KOR (Korean coastal water) from Rebstock & Kang (2003
Arrows indicate timing of major shifts within each region
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170 160 150 140 130 120 11025
30
35
40
45
50
55
60
65
170 160 150 140 130 120 11025
30
35
40
45
50
55
60
65PDO - Cold Phase PDO - Warm Phase
Climate-Forcing Hypothesis: Basin-scale circulation links the PDO to local ecosystem change.
Strub, modification of Chelton and Davis, 1982
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Basin-scale control of ecosystems?
E. Di LorenzoJ. KeisterA. ThomasPT StrubWT PetersonS. BogradP. FranksF. SchwingK. ChaakA. Bracco
International collaborators: Japanese: (Chiba, Sasai, Sagaki, Tagushi, Ishidi, Nonaha), Chilean: (Escribano, Hormazabal, Pizarro, Rutllait, Montecino); Canadian (Mackas, Foreman, Pena, Crawford)
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The test of the transport hypothesisCompare modeled transport to zoop. observations
Nested ROMS model http://www.myroms.org/)• 10 km resolution• 30 vertical layers• boundary conditions from World Ocean Atlas
climatology• nudged at open boundaries• forced by NCEP winds and SST• 1950-2008
Passive tracers released continuously along the 4 regional domain boundaries (NORTH, SOUTH, EAST, WEST) with 12-month decay scales.
Time series integrated over 1x2 degree region centered on zooplankton observations.
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Passive tracers capture the seasonality in advection:
Winter Spring Summer Fall
East
West
South
North
particle concentration
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FromEAST
FromSOUTH
FromNORTH
FromWEST
1955 1965 1975 1985 1995 2005
-2-10123
-3-2-1012
-1
0
1
2
3
4
-10123
Model hindcast CCI =
NORTH tracer +
SOUTH tracer+
EAST tracer+
WEST tracer+ ε
Passive Tracer Time Series
Keister et al. 2011
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1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008
R = 0.36
Model hindcast CCIObserved CCI
(5 year lowpass)
R = 0.95
Model hindcast CCIObserved CCI
1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008
(5 yearlowpass)
1960 1970 1980 1990 2000
R = 0.9
Model hindcast CCIModel PDO
Keister et al. 2011
Advective control of zooplankton communities?
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1. Diapause transport in the CCS
Data re-analysis
• Divided Northeast Pacific into 6 ‘natural’ regions
• Investigated patterns of retention and export between these regions
California Coast
Northern California Coast
Oregon Coast
Washington Coast
British Columbia Coast
Gulf of Alaska
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1. Diapause transport in the CCS
Seed Latitude
Diap
ause
Em
erge
nce
Latit
ude
Connectivity Plot for All Diapausing Copepods, 1996-2007
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1. Diapause transport in the CCS
Seed Latitude
Diap
ause
Em
erge
nce
Latit
ude
Connectivity Plot for Particles left year round at 10m depth, 1996-2007