NWS Future Concept of Operations
National HIC Meeting
July 10, 2006
Outline
• Background
• Team Process, Progress, and Timeline
• Role of Hydrology
• Discussion
CONOPS Documents
• NOAA’s NWS FOCUS on the Future– CONOPS report (12/15/2005):
www.weather.gov/com/digitalera/index.htm
• If you haven’t read it, you should.
• Follow-on team formed in February ’06 to prototype the CONOPS recommendation.
CONOPS: The Case for Change
1. To provide the best service possible, we must adapt.
2. We must be more efficient with our resources.
3. We must capitalize on future opportunities.
4. We need to posture ourselves for budget uncertainties.
CONOPS Philosophy Principles
Information and Services
Technology, Data, and Tools
People
Customers and Partners
8. We will ensure that all national centers and field offices have the tools and technology necessary to efficiently and effectively produce the digital environmental information repository (one stop shopping portal) 9. We will routinely verify and quality assure the digital environmental information we produce and make these verification data readily available to
forecasters and managers to ensure resources are used most efficiently and effectively. The verification system should be tailored to include the information that lets us make resource decisions about services for high-impact events. 10. We will
efficiently and fully leverage the investment in numerical forecast guidance and ensure that this guidance is used by field offices. 11. We will facilitate the rapid transfer of new science and quality assured technology into operations . 12. When
designing systems, adaptability of technology is a criteria that is as important as initial cost
1. We will ensure weather sensitive decision makers have ready
Market
4. The degree of consistency and accuracy of our information corresponds to the value they provide. 5. We will provide information that includes estimates of uncertainty, and is widely recognized as credible and reliable. 6. Enable reliable access to
information and services in formats which meet customer needs. 7. To the greatest extent that resources permit, we will measure the value of the services we provide in support of high-impact events. We acknowledge that not all aspects of the
value of high impact services are amenable to objective measurement.
Organizational Design
2. We believe that proximity to our customers and partners is key to achieving and maintaining the quality of our information and services. 3. The credibility of the NWS is
a primary asset that will be maintained at all costs.
access to high value environmental information.
13. We recognize the unique needs of the individual employee. 14. We concentrate the efforts of our people where their expertise and effort allows them to add value. 15. We will dedicate resources to leadership training and succession planning.
16. Operating units should be resourced according to mission requirements. 17. Maintain a distributed concept of services where local offices are responsible for making resource decisions. 18. Regardless of where the environmental information is
produced, accountability resides with the part of the organization from which the information is delivered. 19. Operating units are clustered by partnership opportunities, climatology, and ecosystems. 20. National and regional service program leads should be
located at operating units in areas where the program is active
CONOPS Future State: 2015
ServicesInformation
Technology, Data, and Tools
People
Customers Partners
(1) Enhanced user decision support especially for high impact events (2) Provider of a wide spectrum of improved
environmental information services designed for societal needs (3) Producer of seamless, high quality, digital information on
demand
(1) Effective and adaptable use of emerging science and technology, including timely transition and quality assurance (2) Communications allows full transfer of information to wherever it is needed in the agency (3) Calibrated, reliable, and routinely
verified national digital environmental information repository (4) An interface that allows the decision maker to quickly personalize information from a national digital environmental information repository
High quality of work life: (1) Our people’s efforts are concentrated where their expertise allows them to demonstrably add value (2) More flexible work schedules (3) Appropriate and targeted training (4) Effective leadership at all levels
Expanded support to weather sensitive decision makers,
including those in emergency management, public health, aerospace,
aviation, and water resources.
Market
(1) Local, regional, national and international decision makers, including other government agencies
(1) Clearly explained and leveraged partnerships across the weather enterprise that benefit both parties (2) We partner with other NOAA elements in a one-NOAA context
(1) Ecosystem information (2) Probabilistic forecasts (3) Sensible weather forecasts and warnings (4) Environmental
forecasts to aid in the protection of the nation’s natural resources (5) High resolution information for high impact
events
(1) Our premier reason for being is to provide information to decision makers who take action to protect lives and property (2) We are the recognized source of unbiased, scientifically valid, quality assured environmental information (3) We are the primary
source of weather information for the government.
Identity
Clustered Peer VisionAn Extension of the Ops Philosophy
- focuses NWS resources on high-impact events
- while providing routine services
- in a highly collaborative process,
- optimizing modern science and technology
- composed of functionally staffed field offices
- at current facilities (with modifications).
An effective field structure for NOAA’s National Weather Service consisting of a highly trained workforce, which...
Key Operational Shifts
Phenomenon Based Forecasts
Product Based Services
Coordination
Technology Tied
National Weather Service
Reactive Evolution
Static Resource Allocation
Weather-centric
Impact Based Forecasts
Decision Support Information
Collaboration
Technology Enabled
Full Partnering Weather Enterprise
Proactive continuous Improvement
Dynamic Resource Allocation
Earth System Science
From To
Key Cultural Shifts
Running an Operation
“My Forecast”
“My Office”
Consistency vs. Accuracy
“My weather is harder than yours”
“Only I can forecast for my area”
Cranking out the work
Quantity of work
Trusted individual technology
Leading Change
“Our Forecast”
“Our NWS”
Consistency and Accuracy
“I value your climate, too”
“I trust you to make the best decisions for our cluster”Knowing where and when to add value
Quality of work
Shared, integrated technology
From To
Clustered Peers Concept Basic Elements
1. National Centers
2. Mission-Staffed (Tailored) Peer Forecast Offices
3. Cluster Support Offices
Note: All 122 forecast offices issue forecasts and warnings, QA data, maintain equipment, conduct outreach and science infusion
Team Progress
Febru
ary
April
May
Mar
ch
June
July
Augus
t
RecommendClusterCriteria
RecommendPrototypeClusters
ProvideCluster
PrototypePlan*
StartOnline Testing
Initiate OSIP
InitiateTeam
ActivitiesSolicitInput
2006
February 28 May 2
June 13
March 30
Septe
mbe
r
May 1
Run Lab
August 1
August 14
September 11
Prototype Cluster CriteriaAs presented at the May 2 Board VTC
Primary Considerations: Common Forecast Challenges
Physiographic Boundaries
Involvement by all 4 CONUS regions
End-state cluster configuration dependent on prototype findings
Current AWIPS Architecture Restriction
~100,000 grid points
Other Considerations: Partnership opportunities, Transportation, Economy, Population, Team work, Service Assistance
Additional Prototype Criteria
In late May, the Team decided that: Prototype cluster areas can approach 120,000 grid points
Prototype cluster areas must include at least 4 WFOs
Multi-regional participation within clusters is important
The clusters need to cover a diversity of forecast challenges:
• Hurricane
• Tornado
• Marine
• Flood
• Winter weather
• Fire Weather
• Mountainous Terrain
• Water Management
Recommended Prototype Clusters
“Pacific Northwest”
“Great Plains”
“Great Lakes”
“Southeast Coast”
Why Four Prototype Clusters?
• Address all high impact forecast challenges
• Involve all CONUS Regions
• Provide opportunities for NOAA partnerships
• Engage a broad spectrum of field offices in refining the Clustered Peer approach
• Provide opportunity to accelerate NWS culture change
• Lay the foundation for nationwide implementation
Recommended Prototype Cluster A
Important Goal: Evaluate Service Assistance between Coastal and Inland WFOs
• Marine
• Winter Weather
“Pacific Northwest”
Seattle, Spokane, Portland, Pendleton
Forecast Challenges
• Fire weather
• Mountainous Terrain
• Flood/Water Management
Strong Partnerships
• NOAA (NOS, NORR, PMEL, MAO, OAR)
• Universities (UW, OSU)
Common RFC
Cluster Support (OPC, HPC, SPC, CPC, AWC, NWRFC, CWSU)
Important Goal: Evaluate Frequent Occurrence of High Impact Weather
“Southern Plains”
Amarillo, Lubbock, Norman, Tulsa, Wichita, Dodge City
Forecast Challenges
• Severe Weather
• Flash Flood
• Drought
Partnerships
• NOAA (NSSL)
• University (OU)
Multiple Regions
Multiple RFCs
Cluster Support (SPC, HPC, CPC, AWC, ABRFC, WGRFC, SWPL)
Recommended Prototype Cluster B
• Flood
• Severe Weather
Important Goal: Evaluate Service Benefits to Single Ecosystem
“Great Lakes”
Detroit, Cleveland, N. Indiana, Chicago, Milwaukee, Green Bay, Gaylord, Grand Rapids
Common Ecosystem
Forecast Challenges
• Marine
• Winter Weather
Strong Partnerships
• NOAA (GLERL, NOS)
• Lake Carriers Association
• Universities (UM, UW)
Multiple Regions
Multiple RFCs
Cluster Support (OPC, SPC, HPC, CPC, AWC, NCRFC, OHRFC, CWSUs)
Recommended Prototype Cluster C
• Flood
• Severe Weather
Important Goal: Evaluate Service Assistance in High-Impact Tropical Environment
“Southeast Coast”
Tallahassee, Jacksonville, Charleston, Columbia, Wilmington, Greer, Atlanta
Forecast Challenges
• Hurricane
• Fire Weather
• Water Management
Strong Partnerships
• NOAA (CSC, NCDC, NOS, NMFS)
• University (FSU, GTU)
Multiple Regions
Common RFC
Cluster Support (HPC, OPC, AWC, TPC, CPC, SPC, CWSUs, SERFC, SERCC)
Recommended Prototype Cluster D
Key Elements of Prototype Testing
• Expanded domain for GFE
• Collaboration tools
• Resource allocation tools
• Assessment criteria and metrics
• A plan!
Next Steps
Laboratory (CRH – GSD)
• Laboratory preparations – June-July
• Conduct during August – October
• Forecaster involvement September-October
• Report completed early November 2007
Prototype Plan
• Next CONOPS deliverable – September 2006 (?)
• Deployment and roll-out details
• Basis for Impact and Implementation discussions
Prototype Activity
• Begins January-March 2007
Concurrent Activities
• OSIP • IT requirements• Assessment and evaluation• Coordination w/ other teams
CONOPS: Role of Hydrology
• Hydrologic service is a core function of the NWS
• CONOPS will allow WFOs to focus additional resources on hydrologic service during high impact events
• CONOPS will allow WFOs an opportunity to expand hydrologic service outreach and hydrologic training (internal and external)
• Role of RFCs (cluster support office) needs to be developed during prototype testing
– RFCs heavily engaged in all 4 prototypes
• CONOPS may provide an opportunity to implement the RFC Service Coordination Hydrologist position
Discussion…
• Questions?
• Input from HICs, others?
• Conduits for information and experience gained during prototypes?