Download - NERI Presentation QEO Spring 2016
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Quarterly Economic Observer: Spring 2016
Dr Micheál Collins
NERI (Nevin Economic Research Institute)
Dublin
#NERIQEO
NERI launch of QEO Spring 2016
March 15th 2016, Buswells Hotel
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Outline1. QEO Spring 2016
2. Economic Outlook
3. Risks
4. Regional Labour Mkts
5. Women and Low Pay
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1. QEO Spring 2016• Seventeenth edition of the NERI’s QEO
• Three core parts:
o Review of recent economic trends North and South
o Economic Outlook North and South
o Focus section
• Focus on this occasion:
o Women and Low Pay in the Republic of Ireland
o Details on those who are low paid
• Personal Characteristics, Sector, household earnings
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2. Economic Outlook• Progress and Uncertainty
o ongoing improvements in:
• labour market
• exports
• domestic demand
• earnings
o yet a number of risks…
o Outlook given current policies (see p19)
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3. Risks
• Uncertainty:
o the weakness of the broader European and International
economies
o the forthcoming UK Brexit referendum
o the sustainability of positive benefits associated with:
• low interest rates
• low oil prices
• accommodative ECB monetary policy
• favourable exchange rates
o Possibility of political instability
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4. Regional Labour Mkts
• Positive labour market developments since 2012
• Looking over the past yearo Q4 2014 – Q4 2015
• Contrast between overall performance and that in
some regions (see p10)
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• Improvement compared to our assessment last year
• Welcome
o Regional ‘Action Plans’
• Yet
o Policy implications and impacts on issues such as
population densities, housing supply in Dublin
• Implications for proposed ‘National Planning
Framework’
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5. Women & Low Pay• Section 4 examines Women and Low Pay
o Why?
• One group with a high probability of low pay
o CSO data from SILC 2013
o Looking at hourly earnings data for employees
o Low Pay thresholds:
• Two-thirds of median hourly earnings (specified group)
• €11.45 per hour
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Women and low pay
o Details table 4.1a and 4.1b (see p34-35)
• 60% of the low paid are women = 207,000
• Almost 3 in 10 women are low paid (men = 2 in 10)
• Across the age groups; but concentrated in under 40s
• 60% in three sectors
o Wholesale and Retail (24%)
o Accommodation and Food (19.7%)
o Health and Social Work (18.4%)
• Temporary contract: 1 in every 2 are low paid
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Depth of low pay
o Average depth for female employees = €2.04 per hour
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How important is low pay income?
o % of household earnings
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Women and low pay
o Policy Challenges:
• New Government
• Low Pay Commission
o Not all that different to overall picture…
o Points to:
• Adequacy of pay in certain sectors
• Sustainability/stability of that employment income
• role beyond hourly rates
• barriers to work and more work
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NERI
Quarterly
Economic
Observer
Spring 2016
www.NERInstitute.net#NERIQEO