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National Computational Science Alliance
Increasing Competitiveness Through the Utilization of Emerging Technologies
• Leader to Leader Speaker Series, Allstate Insurance Company (Proprietary Material Removed)
• July 17, 1998
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National Computational Science Alliance
NCSA is the Leading Edge Site for the National Computational Science Alliance
www.ncsa.uiuc.edu
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National Computational Science Alliance
The Grid Links People with Distributed Resources on a National Scale
Source: NASA http://science.nas.nasa.gov/Groups/Tools/IPG
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National Computational Science Alliance
Alliance National Technology GridWorkshop and Training Facilities
Being Deployed Across the Alliance
Jason Leigh and Tom DeFanti, EVL; Rick Stevens, ANL
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National Computational Science Alliance
NCSA Expanded Industrial Partner Program
• Four Types of Partnership– Strategic Industrial Partner
– Strategic Technology Partner
– Infrastructure Development Partner
– Professional Development Program
• Created by Task Force in Spring 1998– Committee Had Broad Representation
– Industry
– Campus
– Alliance
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National Computational Science Alliance
NCSA Has Three Major Technical Focus Areas
• Knowledge Management
• Visualization & Virtual Reality
• Scalable Computing
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National Computational Science Alliance
The Emergence of Knowledge Management
October 20, 1997
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National Computational Science Alliance
Why Do We Need Knowledge Discovery?
• Drivers– Focus on Customer– Focus on Competition– Focus on Data Assets
• Enablers– Data, Data, Data Everywhere– Growth of Data Warehouses/Marts– New Information Technology Solutions– New Machine Learning Research
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National Computational Science Alliance
Knowledge Discovery Applications
Marketing
Target marketing
Customer relationships
Market basket analysis
Cross selling
Market segmentation
Strategic Analysis
Forecasting
Customer retention
Improved underwriting
Competitive analysis
Fraud detection
Manufacturing
Troubleshooting
Problem prediction
Reliability
Quality control
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National Computational Science Alliance
Information Analysis Operational Data to Optimal Decisions
Operational Data
ExternalMarketing
Prospects
CustomersTransactions
Process
Internal
Knowledge Discovery In DatabasesClassificationEstimation
PredictionLink Analysis
Clustering
Validation
Process Optimization
Data Management
and Preparation
New Perspectives
And Decision Variables
Decision Variables
Visualization
Decision Support Analysis
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National Computational Science Alliance
NCSA’s Autonomous Learning Group
• Data Management
• Data Mining
• Information Visualization
• Autonomous Agents
Michael Welge R&D Program Manager
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National Computational Science Alliance
Data Mining - NCSA Industrial Partner Projects
• Caterpillar– Effluent Quality Control– Smart Selling– Warranty Claims Analysis– Customer Value Analysis
• Ford– Product Compatibility– Harshness, Noise, Vibration– Marketing
• Sears– Transaction Management
• Boeing – Post-Flight Diagnostics
• Allstate– Medical Claims
• Financial Impact May Be Greater Than $30 Million
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National Computational Science Alliance
The Desktop Window into Data Spaces -Allstate is Pioneering an NT Intranet
• Deployment of 60,000+ NT Desktops– 15,000 Sales Locations– 220 Claims Offices– 17 Regional Offices– 3 Large Data Centers– 1996-2001
• Standard Software Environment– Microsoft Office– Internet Explorer
• TCP/IP Network with T3 Backbone
• Partnering with NCSA’s NT Data Refinery
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National Computational Science Alliance
NCSA / AllstateNT Cluster Data Refinery
Source: Allstate & Tilt Thompkins, NCSA
Visualization Stations
CompaqNT
Server
External Networks
CompaqNT
Server
1000 Gigabytes of Allstate Claims Data
Data Mine on Cleaned Gigabyte Samples
Parallel Compute Cluster
Terabyte
“Smart Bucket”
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National Computational Science Alliance
The University of Illinois NT Supercluster - 256 Intel Pentium II Processors
192 Hewlett Packard 300 MHz
64 Compaq 333 MHz
• Andrew Chien, Computer Science UIUC • Rob Pennington, NCSA
“Supercomputer performance at mail-order prices”-- Jim Gray, Microsoft
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National Computational Science Alliance
NCSA Information Visualization Laboratory
Cave™
ImmersaDesk™
Databases
GraphicsWorkstations
Flat Panel Wall
In3D™ for C++ and JavaVizIt/In3D™
MineSetS-PLUS
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National Computational Science Alliance
Sears Pioneers Massive Data Mining and Information Visualization at NCSA
• 1998 VLDB Survey Program Grand Prize Winner – Largest Database
– 4.7 Terabytes of Data (Roughly 1000 PC Hard Drives!)
– 10 Terabyte Total Disk Space Capacity– Storage Provided by EMC
Image Courtesy of Michael Welge, NCSA and Sears
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National Computational Science Alliance
Visualizing Relationships Between Documents- 6500 News Stories from the WWW in 1997
SPIRIX software ThemeScapes www.thememedia.com
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National Computational Science Alliance
Visualizing Relationships Between Documents -Need Extension to Millions of Web Documents
SPIRIX software Galaxies www.thememedia.com
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National Computational Science Alliance
The Continuing Exponential Agent of Change
1985
Cray X-MP Supercomputer
Located at National Center
Cost: $8,000,000
No Built in Graphics
56 kbps NSFnet Backbone
IBM Desktop PC
Located on 60,000 Allstate Desks
Cost: $2,000
Interactive 3D Graphics
56 kbps Modem to Home1998
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National Computational Science Alliance
Growth Rate of the NSF Supercomputer Capacity is 70% Compounded Per Year!
10,000
100,000
1,000,000
10,000,000
100,000,000
1,000,000,000
1986
1988
1990
1992
1994
1996
1998
2000
2002
Fiscal Year
No
rmal
ized
CP
U H
ou
rs
Total NU
70% Annual Growth This Year
Source: Quantum Research; Lex Lane, NCSA
1000 x 1985
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National Computational Science Alliance
Market Driven Companies Replace Stand-Alone Supercomputer Companies
TOP500 Reports: http://www.netlib.org/benchmark/top500.html
Nu
mb
er o
f S
yste
ms
in T
op
500
Fas
test
Co
mp
ute
rs
CRI
SGI
IBM
Convex
HP
SunTMC
IntelDEC
JapaneseOther
0
100
200
300
400
500Ju
n-9
3
No
v-93
Jun
-94
No
v-94
Jun
-95
No
v-95
Jun
-96
No
v-96
Jun
-97
No
v-97
Jun
-98
Other
Japanese
DEC
Intel
TMC
Sun
HP
Convex
IBM
SGI
CRI
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National Computational Science Alliance
Proposed NCSA Silicon Graphics Cray Origin Array - 1024 Processors
Origin Array
6x128
3x64
2x32
Processors
Subject to NSF Approval of Funds
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National Computational Science Alliance
JP Morgan Hero Calculation
• HPC Strategic Business Analysis
• Calculations Used 128-Processor SGI Origin – Two Week Period in January 1998
– NCSA and SGI Doubled Memory in a Week
• Extended JPM's Risk Management Capabilities
• Hundreds of Market Scenarios Simulated
• NCSA, Strategic Vendor, Industrial Partner – Existing Relationships Facilitated Quick Startup
– Win-Win-Win Result
Andrew Abrahams, Jeff Saltz, JP Morgan
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National Computational Science Alliance
User Web BrowserOutput to User
User Input
Format Translator, Query Engine and Program Driver
Workbench Server
Results to User
User Instructions and queries
Application Programs
(May have varyinginterfaces and be written in different
languages)Results
Instructions
Information Sources(May be of
varying formats)
Information
Queries
NCSA Computational Biology Group
The NCSA Information Workbench - An Architecture for Web-Based Computing
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National Computational Science Alliance
The Future of Business on the Web - What Customers are Coming to Expect
• Human Agents Become Advisors and Tutors– K-12 Teachers
– Stock Brokers
• The Competitive Equation– Controlling Cost
– Customers Want to Compare Value– Adding Share Holder Value (Stock Price Last 12 Months)
– Dell vs IBM (188% vs 14%)
– Amazon vs Barnes & Noble (820% vs. 95%)
• Getting on the Learning Curve