National Association of State Foresters & Wildland Fire Weather
by
Wayne MitchellCalifornia Department of Forestry & Fire Protection
1416 9th Street
Sacramento, CA 94244-2460
(916) 653-6031
Washington, D.C.January 25, 2006
NWS - 10/27/98
Objectives• Describe the State Foresters needs for the
National Fire Weather Program
• Describe Cooperative Wildland Fire Protection as it relates to Fire Weather
Local, State, National
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Plus many others. . .
Wildland Fire Community
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Wildland Fire Workload1990s Average Annual
• Number of Fires– Federal - 13,800
– State & Local - 52,400
• Acres Burned– Federal - 1,980,000
– State & Local - 874,000
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Wildland FireProgram Expenditures
$0 $200 $400 $600 $800 $1,000 $1,200
States -Preparedness & Ops
Federal -Preparedness & Ops
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Millions
* Estimated annual expenditures 1990s
*
Who Really Pays for Wildfires?
Initial Attack Major Disaster
Analysis of 1994 California fire activity
Jurisdiction and Agreementsfurther integrate responsibilities
For Example: San Diego County, CA
Public and Fire Fighter Safety Depend on Good Weather Forecasts
• Standard Fire Orders for Firefighter Safety2. “Initiate all actions based upon current and
expected fire behavior”
3. “Recognize current weather conditions and obtain forecasts”
Serving Our Public
• Anticipating of future conditions is critical – efficient resource use– public safety– fire fighter safety
• Knowledge of current and expected weather is the key to anticipating future conditions
Wildland Fire Command Structure
Area Coord.
ECC
Fire Fire Fire
ECC ECC
Area Coord. Area Coord.
N IFC
Strategic
Tactical
Who
Decisions
Where
Decisions
Remote Automatic Weather Stations
Satellite Data Delivery
An Interagency RAWS Network
National Weather Information Management System (WIMS)
Use of Fire WeatherProducts and Services
• Planning
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WIMS provides daily fire danger information
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Current Products & Services
• Alpha/Numeric Forecasts
• Graphical Products
Use of Fire WeatherProducts and Services
• Planning
• Preparedness
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• Alpha/Numeric Forecasts
Current Products & Services
- Fire Wx Narrative Fcsts
- Fire Wx Zone Fcsts
- Fire Danger Rating Index Fcsts
- Fire Wx Watches & Red Flag Warnings
- Transport & Stability Fcsts
- Site Specific (Spot) FcstsNWS - 10/27/98
---------------------------------------------------------------------------SOUTHEAST IDAHO AND WESTERN WYOMING(ZONES 411-417) ---------------------------------------------------------------------------TONIGHT... SKY/WEATHER...Scattered clouds this evening..then clear and cold. LAL...........1 TEMPERATURE...Lows in the teens and 20s. HUMIDITY......Good recovery valleys..moderate ridges. Max 75-95 pct valleys..and 40-60 pct ridges. WIND - 20 FT.. VALLEYS...Northeast to southeast 3-8 mph or less by dark. RIDGES....Northeast to southeast 10-20 mph. HAINES INDEX..3 Very low SMOKE DISPERSAL: MIXING HEIGHT....Lowering to 500 ft agl. TRANSPORT WIND...Northeast to southeast 5 mph. . . . .
ZCZC LAXFWFLAXTTAA00 KUCR 162211GEOGRAPHICAL AREA COMMAND CENTEROPERATIONS AND COORDINATION CENTERINTERAGENCY FIRE FORECAST AND WARNING UNITRIVERSIDE, CALIFORNIAFIRE WEATHER FORECAST1530 PDT FRIDAY OCTOBER 16, 1998
INYO/MONO
SYNOPSIS...A DEEP TROUGH CURRENTLY OVER THE WESTERN UNITED STATES WILL SLOWLY MOVE EAST DURING THE NEXT DAY ORSO. MEANWHILE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE GREAT BASIN, PRODUCING A DRY NORTHERLY FLOWACROSS THE DISTRICT. GUSTY NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING, WITHDIMINISHING WINDS IN THE AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE NEAR NORMAL FOR MUCH OF NEXTWEEK.*****************************************************************************NOTE: ALL WINDS ARE 20-FOOT WINDS UNLESS SPECIFIED OTHERWISE.************************** NORTHERN MOUNTAINS ********************************ELEVATIONS ABOVE 5000 FT FROM BIG PINE NORTH TO VICINITY OF MONO LAKE. TONIGHT...CLEAR. LOWS IN THE TEENS TO UPPER 20S. MAXIMUM HUMIDITY 60-75%. RIDGETOP WINDS, NORTH TO NORTHEAST 10 TO15 MPH. ALONG THE SLOPES, DOWNSLOPE/DOWN CANYON 7 TO 15 MPH. SATURDAY...SUNNY. HIGHS IN THE 50S. MINIMUM HUMIDITY 15-25%. RIDGETOP WINDS, NORTH TO NORTHEAST 10 TO 20 MPH. ALONGTHE SLOPES, UPSLOPE/UPCANYON 6 TO 12 MPH.LAL 1.************************ SOUTHERN MOUNTAINS *********************************ELEVATIONS ABOVE 5000 FT FROM BIG PINE SOUTH. TONIGHT...CLEAR. LOWS MOSTLY IN THE 20S. MAXIMUM HUMIDITY 60-75%. RIDGETOP WINDS, NORTH TO NORTHEAST 10 TO 15 MPH.ALONG THE SLOPES, DOWNSLOPE/DOWNCANYON 7 TO 15 MPH. SATURDAY...SUNNY. HIGHS IN THE 50S TO LOW 60S. MINIMUM HUMIDITY 15-25%. RIDGETOP WINDS, NORTH TO NORTHEAST 10 TO 20MPH. ALONG THE SLOPES, UPSLOPE/UPCANYON 6 TO 12MPH.LAL 1.************************* NORTHERN VALLEYS**********************************OWENS VALLEY JUST NORTH OF BISHOP, INCLUDING BENTON, HAMMIL AND CHALFANT VALLEYS. TONIGHT...CLEAR. LOWS IN THE UPPER 20S TO THE 30S. MAXIMUM HUMIDITY 35-55%. WINDS NORTH TO NORTHEAST 8 TO 15 MPH.SATURDAY...SUNNY. HIGHS IN THE 60S. MINIMUM HUMIDITY 12-25%. WINDS NORTH TO NORTHEAST 10 TO 15 MPH. LAL 1.************************** SOUTHERN VALLEY *********************************OWENS VALLEY FROM BISHOP SOUTH TO NEAR LITTLE LAKE. TONIGHT...CLEAR. LOWS MOSTLY IN THE 30S TO MID 40S. MAXIMUM HUMIDITY 30-45%. WINDS NORTH TO NORTHEAST 8 TO 15 MPH.SATURDAY...SUNNY. HIGHS IN THE 60S TO AROUND 70. MINIMUM HUMIDITY 12-25%. WINDS NORTH TO NORTHEAST 10 TO 15 MPH.LAL 1.****************************************************************************THE FORECAST FOR SUNDAY...SUNNY. HIGHS IN THE 50S TO MID 60S MOUNTAINS, AND IN THE 60S AND 70S IN THE VALLEYS. WINDS NORTHEAST TOSOUTHEAST 10 TO 15 MPH OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND IN THE VALLEYS.**************************************************************************THE OUTLOOK FOR MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...MOSTLY SUNNY. LITTLE CHANGE IN TEMPERATURES BUT A LITTLE MORE HUMID. WINDS SOUTHWEST TO NORTHWEST 10TO 15 MPH OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND IN THE VALLEYS.*****************************************************************************THE EXTENDED WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR THURSDAY OCT 22ND THRU MONDAY OCT 26TH...TEMPERATURES.........NEAR NORMAL.PRECIPITATION........NONE.**************************************************************************** WINDS ALOFT FORECAST FOR BISHOP VALID AT 1600 PST TODAY.24,000 FEET 330/88 KTS 39,000 FEET 320/81 KTS 53,000 FEET 290/42 KTSEND/ROLINSKI
Fire Danger Pocket Card
Use of Fire WeatherProducts and Services
• Planning
• Preparedness
• Operations
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Photo courtesy of: Larry Haftl, Wildland Firefighter Magazine
NWS Mission
• The NWS is the sole OFFICIAL voice for issuing warnings in life threatening weather situations– The wildland fire agencies believe this is
critical, and puts the NWS squarely behind the fire weather forecasting program!!!
• Critical information and forecasts are provided to emergency managers and local decision makers to support evacuations and other safety measures in response to toxic spills, wildfires, and technological hazards.
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Incident Command SystemA Team Approach
Strike Team sSingle Resources
Divisions
Branches
Operations
Resources
Fire Behavior Analyst
IMET
Situation
Plans Logistics Finance
Incident Com m ander
• Alpha/Numeric Forecasts
• Graphical Products
• Briefings
Current Products & Services
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• Alpha/Numeric Forecasts
• Graphical Products
• Briefings
• Consultation
Current Products & Services
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• Alpha/Numeric Forecasts• Graphical Products• Briefings• Consultation• Incident Meteorologists
Current Products & Services
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• Alpha/Numeric Forecasts
• Graphical Products
• Briefings
• Consultation
• Incident Meteorologists
• High Resolution - High Frequency Data
Current Products & Services
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Change in Wildland Fire
• Workforce reductions• Interagency• Hazardous fuels• Higher suppression costs• Larger fires• Greater resource damage• Higher risk to firefighters
• People moving into the wildlands - Interface
• Increase reliance on non-fire personnel
• T & E species
• Significant organizational change
• Contractor resources
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Future Needs• Broad spectrum products
– Text & graphical to frequent high resolution data
• Large spatial variation– Site specific to Regional/National scale
• Forecasts - probability & confidence
• Expertise improving the science of fire weather and complex terrain meteorology– Operational research - Locally & Nationally
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Future Needs• Technical advice, briefings & consultation
• On-site fire weather expertise
• Weather station data monitoring
• Smoke management - air quality support
• Service to all wildland fire agencies including State Agencies
• Mid to long range forecasts
• Training cadreNWS - 10/27/98
What About Air Quality?
• Air Quality standards, driven by EPA, are getting more restrictive.
• Prescribed fire is a service increasingly demanded of Federal, State, and Local Fire agencies.
• Weather is a KEY component of smoke management plans.
• The NWS has limited authority to provide smoke management forecasts.
Thank you for listening
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Questions
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