PRESENTATION TO PLATTS CONFERENCE
Nathalie BRUNELLE, Senior VP Strategy, Development, Research Refining & Chemicals September 19, 2013
REFINING & CHEMICALS IN TOTAL’S ORGANISATION
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Integration throughout the chain
Upstream
Exploration-Production • > 50 countries • Leader in deep and ultra
deep offshore
Refining & petrochemicals • 1er western Europe refiner • Major producer of olefins and polymers
Specialty chemicals • Elastomers, adhesives and electroplating businesses in
the top 5 worldwide
Refining & chemicals Marketing & Services
Marketing & Services • Leader in Europe
and in Africa • 15 000 service stations • > 110 countries
New energies • 2% of the global solar
energy production • Biomass ; access-to-energy
program Trading-Shipping
Gas and power 2nd LNG producer
Refining & Petrochemicals, key link between Upstream and Marketing of oil and gas products
A INTEGRATED MODEL FOCUSED ON VALUE CREATION
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Oil and gas production
Third parties
Third parties
Marketing
Refining & petrochemicals
Process optimization
Supply Synergies
Trading
•Superior offers to host countries: downstream / petrochemicals supplement well E&P investments by offering more jobs and by participating more actively in local economic development
•Hedge between upstream and downstream for extra heavy oil
•Synergies between petrochemicals and refining (feedstock, hydrogen, heat…)
•Balance between cyclical commodity markets
REFINING & CHEMICALS KEY FIGURES
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PROGRESSIVE CHANGE OF THE WORLD ENERGY MIX
0
100
200
300
2010 2020 2035
Mboe/d
Oil
Gas
Coal
Nuclear
Biomass Hydro Solar, wind, others
32%
22%
27%
6%
10% 2% 1%
31%
24%
25%
5%
10% 3% 2%
28%
25%
21%
6%
11% 3% 6%
Fossil energies to represent 74% of energy supply in 2035
Gas to become the second-largest energy source before 2030
Share of nuclear to remain constant
Strong growth of new energies, notably solar and wind
Attaining a new energy model will be a long process that will require technology, innovation and massive investments
Under Total’s vision, energy demand will increase by 31% between 2010 and 2035 driven by non-OECD countries needs
+31%
EXPECTED RATIONALISATION IN EUROPE
Refining capacities Ethylene production capacities
End-2012 capacity : 14.8 Mbd • Restoring utilization rates • European demand expected decline 2013-2020 • Worsening unbalances in the Atlantic basin
End-2012 capacity : 26 Mt/a
• Restoring utilization rates
• Increasing imports from US and Middle-East
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10% of capacity reduction over 2013-2020
15% of capacity reduction over 2013-2020
Absolute priority to safety and prevention of major environmental risks
Adapt capacities to demand and optimize our industrial system in Europe by focusing on large platforms and maximizing synergies to position the best sites among the leaders
Expand profitably in Asia and Middle East to leverage growth in emerging markets and access advantaged oil and gas feedstock
Americas : consolidate our industrial system in the US and leverage development opportunities in North America and Brazil
Differentiate through technology and innovate in processes and products
Pursue portfolio management focusing on core business
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REFINING & CHEMICALS STRATEGY
Becoming a more competitive, integrated industrial segment
A SAFE and RELIABLE R&C FOCUSED ON INCREASING VALUE and in REDEPLOYMENT TOWARDS GROWING MARKETS
TAKING UP THE US NEW OIL AND GAS ENVIRONMENT CHALLENGE
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•Port Arthur refinery : capturing domestic crude supply opportunities and maximizing throughputs •BTP cracker : maximizing ethane and LPG cracking •Studying ethane side cracker project
•Priority to investments on integrated platforms •Reducing exposure by 20% to refining and petrochemicals activities •Differentiate commodity polymer products on higher value markets
FOCUS INVESTMENTS ON LARGE INTEGRATED PLATFORMS
Platform recently modernized
Large and well located platform
Recent investments to increase Gasoil yields and reduce Gasoline yields
Improvement of petrochemical units’ energy footprint to 1st quartile.
CAPEX 2010-17 : 1,8 G€
World scale size platform in European hub 3rd largest European refinery, 2nd
petrochemical platform
New conversion unit under study
Gaz integration : refinery => cracker
CAPEX 2010-17 : 2,7 G€
NORMANDIE France
ANTWERP Belgium
ORGANIZATION SYNERGIES IMPROVING COMPETITIVENESS
OUR RESPONSABILITY = TO ADAPT
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DEVELOP ASSETS ON ADVANTAGED FEEDSTOCK IN MIDDLE EAST AND POSITIONS TO GROW IN ASIA
New 400 kb/d full-conversion refinery integrated with petrochemicals • Dedicated Arab Heavy crude supply • No heavy fuel production • Gradual start-up from Q1 2013 • EPC 9.6 B$ • Planned IPO
Projects building on integrated position • Condensate refinery expansion (x2) • Debottlenecking of Qapco and RLOC
ethane-based crackers • New 300 kt/y LDPE unit start-up
in 2012 • Debottlenecking of LLDPE unit
Jubail Saudi Arabia
Ras Laffan / Messaied Qatar
Daesan South Korea
Expanding and high-grading a world-class facility
• New condensate splitter and aromatic complex
• New EVA unit: 240 kt/y • Total cost 1.8 B$ • Integrated platform :
50% chemicals, 50% petroleum products (jet fuel, diesel)
Partner Saudi Aramco Partner Qatar Petroleum Partner Samsung
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93
90
94
average 2006-11
2015 average 1998-2002
AVAILABILITY, KEY TO INDUSTRIAL PERFORMANCE
Capturing margin through 94% availability target by 2015
% Refining and steam cracker availability
Back to industrial fundamentals
• An ambitious but realistic target
• Refocus management and teams on availability priority
• Systematic vulnerability assessment and action plans
• Control turnaround duration
• Benefit from expertise pooling
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PROFITABILITY IMPROVEMENT ROADMAP
+1.5% +1%
+2%
+2.5%
6%
13%
Major projects on main
platforms Including
~400 M$ from improved
efficiencies
~250 M$ from synergies and
benefits of restructuring
Specialty chemicals
Portfolio changes
Efficiencies / synergies
2010 2015
In 2010 environment : ERMI 27 $/t, mid-cycle for petrochemicals, $/€ 1.33
Port Arthur, Antwerp, Normandy, Qatar, Daesan, Jubail
Cepsa, Dunkirk, Resins…
QUESTIONMARKS AND CHALLENGES FOR A MAJOR REFINER
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• Availability and price of key crudes and conversion feedstocks
• US shale hydrocarbons (magnitude, logistics)
• Consumption trends (efficiency, switch to gas, bottom-of-the-barrel)
• Regulatory uncertainties (specifications, bio components, industrial emissions)
Markets
•Aging industrial installations and logistics
• Skills and know-how
Operations
People