Download - Naea 06-14
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KCM Divided into Three Sections
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“Unless you are experienced at selling homes, it usually makes financial sense to get professional help - homes sold by
agents typically sell at a higher price and spend less time on the market.”
FannieMae
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EXISTING Home Sales
NAR 4/2014
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100 = Historically Healthy Level
NAR 5/2014
PENDING Home Sales
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50.6 51.2 50 50.647.8
27.7
19.3
26.2
43.946.1
0
10
20
30
40
50
July 2013 August2013
September2013
October2013
November2013
December2013
January2014
February2014
March2014
April 2014
realtor.org
Foot Traffic (indicator of future sales)
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NEW HOMEConstruction
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~1M
~500K
1.2M
2000-2007 2008-Today 2015-2025 Projected
Annual Household Formations
Freddie Mac
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realtor.org 5/2014 *projected
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Type of Home Buyers Prefer
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Note: respondents asked to choose the up to three best reasons from the above list, as well as “other,” “none,” and “not at all sure.”
Reasons Buyers Prefer a
NEW HOME
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Note: respondents asked to choose the up to three best reasons from the above list, as well as “other,” “none,” and “not at all sure.”
Reasons Buyers Prefer an
EXISTING HOME
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Properties that are no longer desirable because their characteristics do not match what buyers are looking for in a home.
•Homes that are located in once, but no longer, popular locations
•Homes that are lacking the amenities sought by today’s buyers
HOUSING OBSOLESCENCE
CoreLogic
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PRICES
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Median Home
PRICE
realtor.org 5/2014 *projected
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FHFA 2014 1Q
Price Changes by Region (year-over-year)
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Price Changes by State (year-over-year)
FHFA 2014 1Q
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Months Inventory of HOMES FOR SALE
NAR 5/2014
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S&P Case Shiller 5/2014
Year-Over-Year
PRICECHANGES
CaseShiller
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realtor.com 5/2014
Percentage Change
HOUSING INVENTORY
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Home Price Expectation
SurveyA nationwide panel of over one hundred
economists, real estate experts and
investment & market strategists.
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Home Price Expectation Survey 2014 2Q
Average Annual % APPRECIATION
Pre-Bubble
Bubble
Bust
RecoveryTo Date
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Home Price Expectation Survey 2014 2Q
PROJECTED Mean Percentage Appreciation
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Home Price Expectation Survey 2014 2Q
Cumulative House Appreciation by 2018
19.5%
30.8%
19.5%
9.4%Pre-BubbleTrend
Bulls All Projections
Bears
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Freddie Mac 6/2014
Freddie Mac Actual Rates
January 2013 – June 2014
30 Year Fixed Rate Mortgages
October 2013
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Mortgage Rate Projections
Analyst Projected Rate 2015 2Q
Fannie Mae 4.7%
Freddie Mac 5.0%
Mortgage Bankers Assoc 5.2%
National Assoc of Realtors 5.4%5/2014
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RETURN ON INVESTMENTJanuary 2000 – May 2014
Yahhoo Case Shiller
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Year-over-Year Inventory Levels
NAR 5/2014
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NAR 5/2014
Months Inventory of HOMES FOR SALE
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Months Inventory of HOMES FOR SALE
NAR 5/2014
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Percentage of Distressed
Property Sales
35%
15%
18%
NAR 5/2014
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S&P Case-Shiller Home Price Indices
S&P Case Shiller 5/2014
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ResourcesSlide Slide Title Link
5 Fannie Mae Quote http://knowyouroptions.com/news/selling-your-home?sf2824381=1
6, 7, 20, 31, 32, 33, 34
Existing Home Sales, Pending Home Sales, Months Inventory Homes for Sale, Year-over-Year Inventory Levels, Months Inventory, % Distressed Properties
http://www.realtor.org/
8 Foot Traffichttp://www.housingwire.com/articles/30026-trulias-traffic-spikes-in-april http://economistsoutlook.blogs.realtor.org/
10 Annual Household Formations http://www.freddiemac.com/finance/pdf/May_2014_public_outlook.pdf
11, 17 Housing Starts & Sales, Median Home Price, http://www.realtor.org/presentations/presentation-housing-market-and-economic-outlook#sf2995410
12,13,14Type of Home Buyers Prefer, Reasons for New Home, Reasons for Existing Home
http://info.trulia.com/new-vs-existing-homes-survey-may-2014
15 Housing Obsolescence http://www.corelogic.com/blog/authors/mark-fleming/2014/04/the-rise-of-housing-obsolescence-and-shadow-demand.aspx?WT.mc_id=crlg_140407_O8BaD&elq=04394db44d5e46ac863e1df8b6911042#.U4pVjmcU-cw
18, 19Price Changes by Region, Price Changes by State
http://www.fhfa.gov/Media/PublicAffairs/Pages/FHFA-House-Price-Index-Rises-for-Eleventh-Consecutive-Quarter.aspx
21 Case Shiller Year-over-Year Price Changes http://www.housingviews.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/05/CSHomePrice_Release_March2014-results.pdf
22 Percentage Change Housing Inventory http://www.realtor.com/news/april-housing-report-reveals-healthier-national-market/
23-26Home Price Expectation Survey, Annual Appreciation, Projected Mean % Appreciation, Cumulative House Appreciation
https://pulsenomics.com/Q2_2014_HPE_Survey.php
28 30 Year Fixed Rate Mortgage http://www.freddiemac.com/pmms
KEEPINGCURRENTMATTERS.COM
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ResourcesSlide Slide Title Link
29 Mortgage Rate Projections
http://www.fanniemae.com/resources/file/research/emma/pdf/Housing_Forecast_052114.pdfhttp://www.freddiemac.com/finance/pdf/May_2014_public_outlook.pdf http://www.mortgagebankers.org/files/Bulletin/InternalResource/88271_.pdf http://www.realtor.org/sites/default/files/reports/2014/embargoes/phs-05-29/forecast-06-2014-us-economic-outlook-05-29-2014.pdf
30 Return on Investmenthttp://us.spindices.com/index-family/real-estate/sp-case-shiller http://finance.yahoo.com/
35 S&P Case-Shiller HPIhttp://www.housingviews.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/05/CSHomePrice_Release_March2014-results.pdf
40 Todd Duncan Quote http://www.toddduncan.com/blog/killing-the-sale-six-signs-that-youre-a-sales-poser
43 Ed Catmull Quote Creativity, Inc: Overcoming the Unseen Forces That Stand in the Way of True Inspiration
KEEPINGCURRENTMATTERS.COM
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"Salespeople who suffer from call reluctance don’t believe in what they are selling or don’t believe in their ability to sell."
Todd Duncan
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Craft is what we are expected to do;
art is the unexpected use of our craft.
Ed CatmullPresident of Walt Disney Animation Studios
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