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More of the same,but faster?
Or a chance to create a platform
for real innovation?
Simon de [email protected] / 083 326 3496
3G
African Telecoms 2005Rosebank Park Hyatt 2-4 March
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The things we fear most in
organizations
-- fluctuations, disturbances, and
imbalances --
are the primary sources of
creativity.
~ Margaret J. Wheatley ~
Disruptive Change
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Deja moo?
Spectrumauction fallout...
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My goal today
Offer new thinking frameworks &
tools
Help you re-perceive the
opportunities
within and around the mobile ecosystem
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The fallacy of
safety
in numbers,
or in more savage terms,
the status quo
Creating your own future?
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Signature theme
The best way to
predict the future
is to invent it.
Alan Kay‘Father’ of the PC and GUI interface
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Rear view innovation
Marshall McLuhan:
The “medium is the message” & “the Global Village” guy
Smart fellow. Predicted the effects of having information at our beck and call, instantly
through cable TV & the Internet - in the1960s.
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Rear view innovation“When faced with a totally new situation
we tend to attach ourselves to the objects of the most recent past.
We look at the present through a rear view mirror.
We march backwards into the future.”
- Marshall McLuhan
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Embedded Worldview
Mobile Telephone services
Linear shift to new generation networks
Voice-device centric
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A blank slate?
How differently would things look?
Long Tail? Time-shifting?Innovation possibilities?
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This innovation thing...
• “Innovation begins with an eye” -
IDEO
• Hole in a wall, not a drill
• Seeing stuff differently
• Insight
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Creating your future II
Write the word
R E A C T I V Eon a piece of paper.
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Creating your future II
Write the word
R E A C T I V Eon a piece of paper.
Now move the “C” to the front of the word.
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R E A C T I V E
C R E A T I V E
So how do you see things?
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Seeing Differently
Other worlds- DNA, RNA -> Distribution model...
Naïve experts &
Dumb questionsVu jà dé
- where to put the armour plating?
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Innovation Lag
Peter Senge - The Fifth DisciplineEnsemble of component technologies: 30-
40yrsDC-3:• variable pitch propeller • retractable landing gear, • monocque body construction • radial air-cooled engine• wing flaps
+ later, radar & jet engines.
vs Boeing 247?
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Making connections
“I’m not sure
who discovered water,but I’m pretty sure
it wasn’t a fish.”
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The Long Tail
Chris Anderson - Wired.com- Amazon, Netflix biz models
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The Long Tail
The Long Tail
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The Long Tail
“Touching the Void” - mediocre seller...1o years later, “Into Thin Air”Big successThen Void sales increased
- now 2:1Bye bye 80:20 rule in bit-based
business
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Long Tail with 3G
iPod Shuffle + CellphoneFlat rate music downloadDRM expires content unless boughtChoice widens, curiosity incentiveWag the Long Tail“Lease” content to other devices
-keep renewing periodically
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Time-Shifting
VCRsMy time, not their time!TiVO....RSS...BitTorrent...Google
VideoMe-TVNot anonymous on network
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We’re just warming up!
Operators: Advanced Services = Key DifferentiatorIncrease ARPU, more SIM provisioning
Users: 70%Simple phone please!!Simple phone please!!
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Thinking outside the handset
Mobile phone service components- Handset- SIM card- Wireless network- Content and services provision- Billing system- Customer relationship.
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Thinking outside the handset
Creatively re-combine:- Handset- SIM card- Wireless network- Content and services provision- Billing system- Customer relationship.
+ Small box of electronics
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3G Appliance
Something to consume Long Tail and Time Shifted services with
Operator sells another SIM card
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3G Appliance
Just some scenariosCreating possibilities!What business am I really in?
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The ‘Un-dialed’
Borrow from the banks...unbanked.Mzansi: No frills bank account
Do the same for a no-frills telecoms service?
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Key Point“When faced with a totally new situation
we tend to attach ourselves to the objects of the most recent past.
We look at the present through a rear view mirror.
We march backwards into the future.”
- Marshall McLuhan
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Simon de [email protected] / 083 326 3496
A copy of the talk will be available on www.ideafarm.co.za/blog
African Telecoms 2005Rosebank Park Hyatt 2-4 March
Thank you