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Module 2
Planning under uncertainty and
in the face of a changing
Global Climate Change AllianceSupport Facility
in the face of a changing
climate
Training workshops onmainstreaming climate change
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Key topics covered by this module
• Basics of climate change science
• Sources of uncertainty
• Planning in the face of uncertainties and a changingclimateclimate
– Cost of inaction / Benefits of action
– ‘No-regrets’, ‘low-regrets’ and ‘robust’ measures
– Adaptive management
– Scenario planning
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Basics of climate change scienceBasics of climate change science
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Climate change is a reality
• IPCC 4th Assessment Report:– “Warming of the climate system is unequivocal, as is now
evident from observations of increases in global averageair and ocean temperatures, widespread melting of snowand ice and rising global average sea level”.and ice and rising global average sea level”.
• Observed trends:– Recent years warmest on record
– Accelerating increase in global surface temperature andocean temperature
– Accelerating rise in sea level
• This induces changes in physical and biologicalsystems
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Some observations: trends inglobal mean temperature
Source: IPCC (2007b)4th Assessment Report,WG I – FAQ 3.1 Fig. 1
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Observations and projections:global sea level change
Source: IPCC(2007b) 4th
AssessmentReport, WG I –FAQ 5.1 Fig. 1
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Observations: intensity of cyclones
%age of Category 1 cyclone (blue curve), sum of Category 2 and 3 (green curve), sum ofcategory 4 and 5 (red curve) on 5 years period. Dashed lines are averages for each category
from 1970 to 2004 (Source: Petit & Prudent 2008, p. 42, from Webster et al. 2005)
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Physical manifestations ofclimate change in the Pacific region
• Increased average air and oceantemperatures
• Rising sea levels
• More unpredictable rainfall patterns– e.g. increased intensity of precipitation– e.g. increased intensity of precipitation
– e.g. increased or decreased average annual precipitation(likely increase in the equatorial Pacific)
• More frequent and severe extreme weather events– Storms, droughts, floods
• Shifts in seasons– e.g. changes in monsoon season
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Resulting changes in physicalsystems
• Alterations in hydrological patterns and flows
– e.g. changes in oceanic circulation patterns
– e.g. changes in water salinity, oxygen levels
• Changes in coastal processes• Changes in coastal processes
– e.g. changes in erosion patterns
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Resulting changes in biologicalsystems
• Changes in terrestrial ecosystems
– e.g. shifts in the range of some species
– e.g. increased erosion and land degradation
• Changes in marine and freshwater ecosystems• Changes in marine and freshwater ecosystems
– e.g. shifts in the range and abundance of plankton andfish
• Many other changes have been documented butmay be attributable at least in part to other causes
– e.g. degradation and loss of coastal wetlands, mangroves,coral reefs
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Causes of change
• Natural variation is an inherent feature of theclimate (e.g. driven by solar cycles, earth orbit, volcanoes)
• But anthropogenic emissions of long-livedgreenhouse gases in the atmosphere are a majorgreenhouse gases in the atmosphere are a majorcause of the changes now being observed
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Evolution of GHG concentrations
Source: IPCC(2007b) 4th
AssessmentReport, WG I –FAQ 2.1 Fig. 1
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The greenhouse effect
Source: WWF/IPCC
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Main greenhouse gases
• By decreasing order of abundance:
– water vapour (H2O)
– carbon dioxide (CO2)
– methane (CH4)– methane (CH4)
– nitrous oxide (N2O)
– ozone (O3)
– chlorofluorocarbons (CFC)
– other halogenated compounds (i.e. gases containing fluorine,
chlorine, bromine or iodine) (e.g. hydrofluorocarbons – HFC,sulphur hexafluoride – SF6)
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IPCC GHG emission scenarios
Source: IPCC 4thAssessment report –Synthesis report,Fig. 3.1
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Projections over the 21st century –Southern Pacific
Change in t° (°C) Change in precipitation (%)
2010-2039 2040-2069 2070-2099 2010-2039 2040-2069 2070-2099
Comparison with the 1961-1990 periodProjections from 7 global models for the A1FI, A2, B1 & B2 scenarios
+0.45 to+0.82
+0.80 to+1.79
+0.99 to+3.11
-3.9 to +3.4 -8.2 to +6.7-14.0 to+14.6
Source: IPCC 4th Assessment Report – Working Group IIChapter 16, Table 16.1, p. 694
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Projections for the end of the21st century – South Pacific islands
Δ t° (°C) Δ precipitation (%) Extreme seasons (%)
Season Min. Med. Max. Min. Med. Max. Warm Wet Dry
DJF +1.4 +1.8 +3.2 -6 +4 +15 100 19 4
2080-2099 period compared with the 1980-1999 periodProjections from a set of 21 global models for the A1B scenario
DJF +1.4 +1.8 +3.2 -6 +4 +15 100 19 4
MAM +1.4 +1.9 +3.2 -3 +6 +17 100 35 1
JJA +1.4 +1.8 +3.1 -2 +3 +12 100 27 3
SON +1.4 +1.8 +3.0 -8 +2 +5 100 - -
Annual +1.4 +1.8 +3.1 -4 +3 +11 100 40 3
Source: IPCC 4th Assessment Report – Working Group IChapter 11, Table 11.1, p. 857
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Projections for the end of the21st century – Southeast Asia
Δ t° (°C) Δ precipitation (%) Extreme seasons (%)
Season Min. Med. Max. Min. Med. Max. Warm Wet Dry
DJF +1.6 +2.5 +3.6 -4 +6 +12 99 23 2
2080-2099 period compared with the 1980-1999 periodProjections from a set of 21 global models for the A1B scenario
DJF +1.6 +2.5 +3.6 -4 +6 +12 99 23 2
MAM +1.5 +2.7 +3.9 -4 +7 +17 100 27 1
JJA +1.5 +2.4 +3.8 -3 +7 +17 100 24 2
SON +1.6 +2.4 +3.6 -2 +6 +21 99 26 3
Annual +1.5 +2.5 +3.7 -2 +7 +15 100 44 3
Source: IPCC 4th Assessment Report – Working Group IChapter 11, Table 11.1, p. 855
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Projections for the end of the21st century – Sea level rise
• Models predict that sea level rise in the SouthPacific (as well as Southeast Asia) will be similar tothe global average, i.e.
– from a range of 0.18 – 0.38 m (B1 scenario)– from a range of 0.18 – 0.38 m (B1 scenario)
– to a range of 0.26 – 0.59 m (A1FI scenario)
for the period 2090-2099 relative to 1980-1999
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Sources of uncertaintySources of uncertainty
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Socio-economic uncertainties
• Socio-economic uncertainties (e.g. related to futurepopulation growth, economic growth, technological
choices, societal choices, international relations):
– influence the level of future emissions and thus the– influence the level of future emissions and thus themagnitude of climate change
– also, create uncertainties about future vulnerability toclimate change
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Scientific uncertainties
• For any given emission scenario, differentatmosphere-ocean general circulation models(AOGCMs) provide different projections of futurechange – sometimes very different oneschange – sometimes very different ones
• Due to the complexity of the climate system,many uncertainties prevail and will persist overthe evolution of climate
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Uncertainties in climate changeprojections
• Temperatures and sea levels:
– consensus that they will increase
– magnitude of the increase quite uncertain
• Rainfall:
– expected to increase overall
– but some regions are likely to get more and some less
– for many regions in the world, uncertainty about thedirection of change
• Changes in extreme parameters:
– average future conditions are easier to project thanextremes
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Problems associated withdownscaling
• In developing countries in particular, the dataneeded to downscale higher-level projections ofclimate change to the local or regional level areoften missingoften missing
• The level of uncertainty is greater at downscaledlevels than at large scales
• Downscaling is particularly complex for small islands
– Major role of ocean–atmosphere interactions
– Uncertainty increases w/ distance from large land masses
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Specific uncertainties for thePacific region
• Regional distribution of sea level rise
– Will not be geographically uniform, due to uneven oceandensity (linked to temperature, salinity) and circulationchanges
• Regional distribution of changes in tropical cyclones
– Uncertainty on future El Niño Southern Oscillationbehaviour contributes to uncertainty with regard to tropicalcyclone behaviour
• Few models address storm surges
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Planning in the face of uncertaintiesPlanning in the face of uncertainties
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The cost of inaction
• The uncertainties surrounding climate changeare often invoked to justify inaction
• In a medium- to long-term perspective, however,inaction now is likely to be more costly:inaction now is likely to be more costly:
– Failure to adapt => wasted investment, increasedvulnerability
– Failure to reduce emissions => greater magnitude ofclimate change, more harmful impacts, higheradaptation costs in future
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The benefits of action
• Some climate adaptation and mitigationmeasures are expected to provide developmentalbenefits, whatever the scope and magnitude ofclimate change and even in the absence of changeclimate change and even in the absence of change
• Even in the face of uncertainty, some types ofmeasures are justified.
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Justified measures in the face ofuncertainty (1)
• ‘No-regrets’ measures:
– those that are expected to produce net benefits for societyeven in the absence of climate change (adaptation) orindependently of any ‘reward’ for mitigation (zero ornegative net cost at a zero carbon price)negative net cost at a zero carbon price)
• ‘Low-regrets’ measures:
– those that are expected to have a cost for society, but anacceptable one in view of the benefits they would bring ifclimate change turns out to produce significant effects(adaptation), or to have a low net cost at zero or lowcarbon prices (mitigation)
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Justified measures in the face ofuncertainty (2)
• ‘Robust’ measures:
– those that produce net benefits or deliver good outcomesacross various possible climate change or carbon pricescenarios and economic development scenarios (ratherthan just under the ‘most likely’ scenario)than just under the ‘most likely’ scenario)
• Robust decision making ‘involves evaluating optionsto minimize expected regret across a variety ofmodels, assumptions, and loss functions’ (World Bank,
WDR 2010)
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Adaptive management
• Adaptive management: a flexible and pragmatictype of management, aimed at continuallyimproving management policies and practices, onthe basis of ‘learning by doing’the basis of ‘learning by doing’
– Uses pilot projects and experiments; results andoutcomes are analysed and lessons learnt beforescaling up or adjusting responses
– Involves robustness as a decision criterion, the inclusionof safety margins in investment and the choice ofreversible/flexible options
• Well suited to situations involving uncertainties
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Scenario planning (1)
• To support the choice of adaptation measures,scenarios reflecting prevailing uncertainties can bedeveloped, e.g.
– ‘no change’ (= baseline)
– ‘moderate change’
– ‘high change’
– higher temperatures combined with an increase as well asa decrease in rainfall
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Scenario planning (2)
• Besides changes in climate conditions,scenarios typically describe some of the resultingbiophysical and/or socio-economic changes
– e.g. infrastructure and populations affected by a givenrise in sea level or increase in storm intensityrise in sea level or increase in storm intensity
• Scenario development should involve:
– key experts with a suitable range of technicalcompetences
– other national stakeholders (e.g. government, civilsociety organisations), for their knowledge of localconditions
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Scenario planning (3)
• Once scenarios have been designed:
– Potentially suitable adaptation or mitigation options areidentified
– The costs and benefits of these options are calculated foreach of the chosen scenarios
• A comparison of costs and benefits across thevarious scenarios allows the identification of no-regrets, low-regrets and ‘robust’ measures
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Use of scenarios: illustration (1)
Exhibit 1 – Scenarios for long-term sea level rise in Samoa; in the highchange case, sea level might rise by up to ~26cm by 2030
Today’s climatescenario
2030 estimated sea level rise against 2008 levelCentimeters
0.9
Sea level rise scenarios in Samoa by 2030 compared to 2008
00 2.02.0
Yearly sea level riseMillimeters
SOURCES: IPCC 4th AR; Rahmstorf (2009); CSIRO; team analysis
Moderate changescenario based onA2 scenariowithout ice flow
High changescenario based onA2 scenario withice flow
3.5
11.9
Sea levelrise inSamoa
26.2
Geologicalsubsidencein Samoa
2.0
Correctionfor localeffect inSamoa
0
Globalseal levelrise
24.2
7.68.12.0-2.5
Source: Economics of Climate Adaptation (2009) Test case on Samoa –Focus on risks caused by sea level rise, Fig. 01, p. 121
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Use of scenarios: illustration (2)
Today’sclimatescenario
Horizontal retraction of freshwater lens due to sealevel rise, in meters
2 to 3
0 to 1
3 to 5
Savai’i
Upolu
Exhibit 2 – The freshwater lens is expected to retract by ~ 30 meters inUpolu and ~10 meters in Savai'i by 2030
ΔL
),m
120
140
160
180
Currentaverage
10% decrease(minimum annualrainfall projectedby global climate
model)
10% increase(maximum annualrainfall projectedby global climate
model)
However, salinization is highly sensitive to changes inaverage annual rainfall
SOURCE: Team analysis; CMIP3 global models
Moderatechangescenario
Highchangescenario
5 to 10
3 to 5
25 to 35
10 to 15
Both depth and location,particularly distance from coast)
will affect the salinization ofindividual wells
Annual rainfall, m
Sh
ift
of
len
s(Δ
0
20
40
60
80
100
2.6 2.7 2.8 2.9 3.0 3.1 3.2 3.3 3.4
A 10% decrease in rainfall coulddouble the expected horizontal
retraction of the freshwater lens inthe high change scenario
Source: Economics of Climate Adaptation (2009) Test case on Samoa –Focus on risks caused by sea level rise, Fig. 02, p. 122
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Tools supporting scenariobuilding (1)
• Data and information provision tools thatgenerate or present data/information on:
– main climate variables (observations, projections)
– secondary climate impacts (e.g. on crop yields)– secondary climate impacts (e.g. on crop yields)
– examples of adaptation options
• Examples of such tools:
– World Bank Climate Change Data Portal(http://sdwebx.worldbank.org/climateportal)
– Climate Change Explorer (http://www.weadapt.org)
Source: OECD (2010a)
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Tools supporting scenariobuilding (2)
• Existing reports, studies already conducted atregional, national or sub-national level
– studies conducted by national meteorological service
– e.g. NAPAs, national Communications to the UNFCCC– e.g. NAPAs, national Communications to the UNFCCC
– e.g. region-specific chapters of IPCC 4th Assessment
• Knowledge sharing tools:
– Adaptation Learning Mechanism(http://www.adaptationlearning.net/)
• Multi-disciplinary expert opinion combined with localknowledge
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Tools supporting scenariobuilding (3)
• In the Pacific region: SOPAC’s Geonetworkwebsite (http://geonetwork.sopac.org/geonetwork/srv/en/main.home)
– interactive maps
– GIS datasets– GIS datasets
– satellite images and related applications
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References (1)
• Economics of Climate Adaptation Working Group (2009) Shaping climate-resilient development: aframework for decision-making. Climate Works Foundation, Global Environment Facility,European Commission, McKinsey & Company, The Rockfeller Foundation, Standard CharteredBank & Swiss Re. Available from:http://www.mckinsey.com/clientservice/Social_Sector/our_practices/Economic_Development/Knowledge_Highlights/Economics_of_climate_adaptation.aspx
• IPCC (2007a) Climate Change 2007: Synthesis Report. Contribution of Working Groups I, II and II• IPCC (2007a) Climate Change 2007: Synthesis Report. Contribution of Working Groups I, II and IIto the Fourth Assessment Report. [Core Writing Team, Pachaury R.K. & Reisinger A. (eds.)]Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, Geneva. Available from: www.ipcc.ch
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