Attributing regional effects of the 2014
Levant drought to external climate drivers
K. Bergaoui, (ICBA, Dubai, United Arab Emirates),
D. Mitchell (University of Oxford, Oxford, United Kingdom),
R. Zaaboul, (ICBA, Dubai, United Arab Emirates),
R. Mcdonnell, (ICBA, Dubai, United Arab Emirates)
F. Otto (University of Oxford, Oxford, United Kingdom), ,
M. Allen (University of Oxford, Oxford, United Kingdom)
Explaining Extreme Events of 20XX From a
Climate Perspective
(Herring et al, 2014, BAMS)
2014
Additions:
Bergaoui et al
Matthews et al
Other studies: e.g. Lott et al, 2012; Dong et al,
2015
Attribution results over the Levant
Actu
al
MIR
OC−
ES
M
Ca
nE
SM
2
CC
SM
4
CN
RM
5−
CM
5
CS
IRO−
MK
3−
6−
0
GF
DL−
CM
3
GIS
S−
E2−
H
GIS
S−
E2−
R
Had
GE
M2−
ES
IPS
L−
CM
5A−
LR
IPS
L−
CM
5A−
MR
40
50
60
70
80
65 y
ears
Retu
rn L
evel
MIR
OC−
ES
M
Ca
nE
SM
2
CC
SM
4
CN
RM
5−
CM
5
CS
IRO−
MK
3−
6−
0
GF
DL−
CM
3
GIS
S−
E2−
H
GIS
S−
E2−
R
Had
GE
M2−
ES
IPS
L−
CM
5A−
LR
IPS
L−
CM
5A−
MR
−2.0
−1.5
−1.0
−0.5
0.0
0.5
1.0
FA
R
Fraction of
Attributable Risk
(FAR)
FAR =
1 – P_nat/P_all
Next steps: Impacts
(Figures from Lydia Sheldrake)
Climate suitability for Malaria outbreaks; Horn of Africa