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Efficient EnterprisesPowering American Industry
Michael LubellAmerican Physical Society
&Department of Physics, CCNY
March 19,2010
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What We Will Cover
• Climate change science: a primer• Energy policy: a prudent approach• Energy efficiency: now and in the future• Climate change R&D: a way forward• Electricity production: an observation
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The Greenhouse EffectSimplified Picture
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The Greenhouse EffectMore Complete Picture
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Climate ChangeWhat We Know Well: Settled Science
• Absorption of IR by greenhouse gas molecules• Increase of atmospheric CO2 due to human activity
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Climate ChangeWhat We Know Less Well
• Temperature of the Earth and correlation with CO2
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Climate ChangeWhat We Know Even Less Well
• Climate models–Global–Local–Predictability–Confidence
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Climate ChangeBut What We Also Know Well
• Dwell time of CO in the atmosphere
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Climate ChangeBut What We Also Do Know Well
• Dwell time of CO2 in the atmosphere: hundreds of years• Compare ozone hole and dwell time of Freon
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Climate ChangeBut What We Also Know Well
• Dwell time of CO2 in the atmosphere: hundreds of years• Compare ozone hole and dwell time of Freon:
decades
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And Even with the Ozone Hole…
Note: 1 Dobson Unit = 0.01 mm
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Energy PolicyClimate Change & Energy Security
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Energy PolicyClimate Change & Energy Security• Energy Efficiency– Prudent policy– It costs the economy nothing to deploy existing
technologies– But we must invest in research to develop future
technologies
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A Promotional Announcement
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www.aps.org/EnergyEfficiencyReport/
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Energy PolicyClimate Change & Energy Security
• Climate change R&D–White House roadmap: $15 billion/yr federal R&D
investment needed to achieve 83% target reduction by 2050–Unfortunately existing climate bills virtually ignore
research We will never reach the target!
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Energy PolicyClimate Change & Energy Security• Some ideas for funding climate change R&D– Five percent of total carbon allowances issued
annually should be dedicated to funding basic research and long-term applied research to help achieve the 83% carbon reduction goals.– The Secretary of Energy should prepare a long-
term research plan and provide annual updates to assure targets are met.– To the maximum extent practicable, multiyear
projects should be fully funded at their initiation with reviews of projects taking place annually.
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Energy PolicyClimate Change & Energy Security• Some ideas for funding climate change R&D– Funds should be used for competitively awarded
research in the following areas:» New lower, or zero, carbon emission energy resources
and technologies, including increased efficiency.» Improved methods for capturing and sequestering
greenhouse gases.» Climate change research, including its modeling and
monitoring.» The economic, behavioral and social factors affecting
consumer energy use.
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One More Issue – Renewables in Brief• Sources of electric power: load classification– Coal: base load– Nuclear: base load– Hydro: base load– Natural gas: “peaker” as currently used– Wind: intermittent– Solar: intermittent
• Fundamental requirements for wind and solar scale-up– Grid– Electricity storage
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What We Covered
• Climate change science: a primer• Energy policy: a prudent approach• Energy efficiency: now and in the future• Climate change R&D: a way forward• Electricity production: an observation