STEEL PRICES STACK UP AMID TARIFFS
VOLUME
277
AUGUST 2018
Metals
IMPORT PRICESWhile base steel import prices declined in the first half of 2018, the addition of 25% tariffs boosted import prices
DOMESTIC PRICESTariffs increased demand for domestic steel, allowing U.S. steel mills to raise prices, supported by higher scrap costs
IMPORT LEVELSWhile steel imports increased in advance of tariffs, import levels fell once tariffs were in place and exemptions expired
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In This Issue VOLUME
277
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Trend Tracker
Overview
Carbon Steel
Aluminum
Copper
Stainless Steel
Monitor Information
Experience
Appraisal & Valuation Team
Zinc About Great American Group
Nickel
MONITOR METALSGREATAMERICAN.COMAUGUST 2018800-45-GREAT
NOLVS
• Ferrous: NOLVs increased versus the prior quarter and
prior year as domestic steel pricing continued to rise in
the wake of implemented steel tariffs and quotas.
• Non-ferrous: NOLVs remained consistent since the prior
quarter and year, as gains in aluminum pricing leveled off
in recent months and pricing for other non-ferrous metals
experienced mixed results.
SALES TRENDS
• Ferrous: Sales increased as higher domestic pricing drove
up dollar sales while demand remained relatively stable;
mill shipments increased amid limited imports.
• Non-ferrous: Sales increased due to higher domestic
prices and stable domestic demand.
GROSS MARGIN
• Ferrous: Gross margins remained consistent over the
past quarter as market pricing continued to increase at a
slower rate; while mill margins have climbed substantially,
downstream margins were stable or down.
• Non-ferrous: Gross margins remained consistent over the
past quarter as pricing began to recede, bringing on-hand
inventory more in line with market conditions.
INVENTORY
• Ferrous: Inventory levels decreased over the last quarter
as imports decreased substantially and service centers
have been replenishing inventory on an as-needed basis
due to the elevated pricing environment.
• Non-ferrous: Inventory levels decreased over the last
quarter as imports declined amid sanctions and tariffs,
with companies now managing their inventory levels in
response to market conditions.
PRICING
• Ferrous: Prices increased over the past quarter due
to Section 232 tariffs and strengthening domestic mill
positions, which allowed mills to demand higher pricing,
given the reduction in steel imports.
• Non-ferrous: Prices remained consistent over the past
quarter, as aluminum prices began to stabilize in recent
months, while pricing for other non-ferrous metals
reflected mixed results.
Trend Tracker
3 | MONITOR METALS AUGUST 2018
Ferrous Metal Non-Ferrous Metal
NOLVs Increasing Consistent
Sales Trends Increasing Increasing
Gross Margin Consistent Consistent
Inventory Decreasing Decreasing
Pricing Increasing Consistent
4 | MONITOR METALS AUGUST 2018
Effective March 23, 2018, the U.S. imposed tariffs of 25%
on imported steel and 10% on imported aluminum, initially
exempting Canada, Mexico, Australia, South Korea, Brazil,
and the EU. Exemptions then fluctuated through May. As of
June 1, steel tariffs applied to all countries of origin except
Argentina, Australia, Brazil, and South Korea; aluminum
tariffs applied to all countries of origin except Argentina and
Australia; steel quotas applied to Argentina, Brazil, and South
Korea; and aluminum quotas applied to Argentina.
U.S. allies retaliated, along with non-ally countries such as
China and Turkey, with tariffs on a variety of U.S. goods,
including steel. Collectively, Mexico, the EU, Canada, China,
and Turkey imposed retaliatory tariffs on $23.4 billion of
U.S. goods, per Bloomberg. On July 16, the U.S. launched
formal challenges at the World Trade Organization against
these countries for retaliating. On July 25, the U.S. and EU
announced a preliminary deal to work toward removing tariffs.
Tariffs boosted landed prices for imported steel and aluminum
and also allowed U.S. steel mills to raise prices amid higher
domestic demand. While LME aluminum prices fluctuated
along with trade cues, the Midwest premium increased due
to tariffs. Preliminary June steel imports fell 36.8% year-over-
year and 15.3% month-over-month due to tariffs, per the
U.S. Commerce Department. Aluminum imports from most
countries did not decline significantly and actually increased
in some cases, despite tariffs. Recent overall aluminum import
declines were driven by sanctions against Rusal imposed in
early April, although these sanctions may be reversed.
The U.S. purchasing managers’ index decreased 2.1
percentage points to 58.1 in July versus June, but reflected
strong growth in manufacturing for the 23rd consecutive
month and growth in the economy for the 111th consecutive
month. The oil and gas industry is stabilizing, with the Baker
Hughes’ U.S. oil and gas rig count rising only two units from
the prior week and 90 units from the prior year to total 1,048
units for the week ended July 27, 2018. U.S. auto sales
declined in July due to lower demand for passenger cars and
a shift toward lightly used vehicles. IHS Markit analysts project
2018 new-vehicle sales will reach 17 million vehicles given
continued demand for SUVs, crossovers, and pickup trucks.
However, steel and aluminum tariffs, as well as the resulting
trade wars, remain concerns for end-markets.
Recent price trends for base metals varied in response to
a hodgepodge of trade news. While copper, zinc, and lead
prices generally slipped since the start of the year, nickel
prices climbed and aluminum prices remained comparatively
stable. China, the chief consumer of base metals, reduced
its consumption of most metals in the first quarter, except
copper consumption, which increased 6.1%. However, an
impending slowdown in Chinese construction could temper
copper demand. In addition, a trade war with the U.S. could
negatively impact Chinese demand for base metals.
Two minor metals, lithium and cobalt, are starting to grow in
popularity given their value in battery production for electric
vehicles (“EV”). As the EV market expands, lithium and cobalt
may become more important players in the metals market.
Overview
Section 232 steel and aluminum tariffs, the in-flux nature of country exemptions and project exclusions from these tariffs, and the resulting trade wars have added a measure of uncertainty to the market. Domestic steel prices and aluminum premiums surged over the first half of 2018 due to the anticipation and implementation of tariffs.
UTILIZATION RATES
As ferrous scrap is a key raw material for raw steel production,
capability utilization rates for steel mills are an indicator
of ferrous scrap demand. The American Iron and Steel
Institute reported that domestic raw steel production totaled
1,836,000 net tons in the week ended July 28, 2018, up
1.2% from the previous week, and increasing 5.9% from the
same week in 2017. Capability utilization reached 78.3%, up
from 77.4% the prior week and from 74.3% the same week
the previous year.
Adjusted year-to-date production through July 28, 2018
totaled 53,356,000 net tons at a capability utilization rate of
76.4%, up 3.1% from 51,770,000 net tons the same period
last year, when the capability utilization rate was 74.4%.
Utilization rates above 80% typically denote optimal
profitability, and market participants consider a level of
90% as healthy. Most of the U.S. steel industry has operated
below 80% capability utilization since November 2014.
Recent increases in raw steel production and capability
utilization rates were aided in part by steel tariffs diverting
some demand toward domestic mills.
5 | MONITOR METALS AUGUST 2018
Carbon Steel
SCRAP
Shredded carbon steel scrap prices averaged $366 per gross
ton in July 2018, slipping from $370 the prior month, but
rising from $338 in January 2018.
Carbon Shredded Steel Scrap - Domestic Delivered MillMonthly Average Price/Gross Ton - July 2017 to 2018
Scrap prices climbed over the first half of the year as steel
mills increased capability utilization, due in part to the recent
steel tariffs, which boosted domestic demand. In recent
months, scrap prices began to slip slightly as markets had
already adjusted pricing in the wake of Section 232 tariffs.
However, according to Steel Business Briefing (“SBB”), as
the typical spring softening or summer correction had not yet
materialized this year, market participants foresee a larger
drop in ferrous scrap prices in August. In the first week of
August, prime scrap grades trended down $10 per gross ton,
while obsolete scrap grades trended down $20 per gross ton.
On August 1, S&P Global Platts assessed shredded scrap at
$351 per gross ton, delivered Midwest mill.
1
$275
$285
$295
$305
$315
$325
$335
$345
$355
$365
$375
Week EndedProduction(In Millions)
Change Vs. Prior Year
January 20, 2018 1.693 (2.5%)
February 24 1.783 0.7%
March 17 1.826 6.4%
April 28 1.754 1.9%
May 19 1.775 3.3%
June 23 1.772 1.4%
July 28, 2018 1.836 5.9%
YTD July 28, 2018 53.36 3.1%
PLATE
A36 steel plate prices averaged $967 per net ton in July
2018, increasing from $961 the prior month, and remaining
above the January 2018 average of $763, per SBB.
Average plate pricing in July climbed 26.7% since the
beginning of this year. Similar to hot and cold rolled coil, steel
plate prices increased as mills raised pricing due to tariffs
and strong demand. However, while hot and cold rolled coil
prices experienced some volatility more recently, plate prices
remain buoyed by long lead times, strong OEM demand, tight
spot availability given quotas on imports of South Korean steel,
and an upcoming maintenance outage at SSAB’s plate mill in
Iowa, according to SBB.
One East Coast distributor reported that plate mills are
considering another price increase, given current conditions.
On August 1, the daily Platts TSI assessment for U.S. plate
increased to $982 per net ton, delivered Midwest. Some
market participants believe more price increases could be in
store, as supplies are expected to tighten further in the third
quarter, although the fourth quarter remains a question mark.
6 | MONITOR METALS AUGUST 2018
Carbon Steel
CARBON STEEL SHEET COIL
Hot rolled coil prices averaged $918 per net ton in July 2018,
up from $906 the prior month, and remaining above the
January 2018 average of $682, per SBB. Cold rolled coil
prices averaged $1,008 in July 2018, down from $1,012 in
June, but remaining above the January 2018 average of $848.
Average hot and cold rolled prices in July climbed 34.6%
and 18.9%, respectively, since the beginning of this year,
as healthy domestic demand was compounded by tariffs
on steel imports, with exemptions for the EU, Mexico, and
Canada expiring as of June 1. However, the market remains
cautious, taking a wait-and-see approach given the shifting
trade dynamics. On August 1, the daily Platts TSI pricing
assessments for hot and cold rolled coil were $913 and
$1,011, respectively.
In addition, it remains to be seen how contracts develop as
the fourth quarter approaches, which could affect the share of
spot business versus contract business in 2019. The potential
reduction in discounts associated with contracts during
negotiations could lead to a shift toward spot business.
Hot and Cold Rolled Coil - Domestic FOB Midwest MillMonthly Average Price/Net Ton - July 2017 to 2018
3 Steel Plate (A36) - Domestic FOB Southeast MillMonthly Average Price/Net Ton - July 2017 to 2018
$600
$650
$700
$750
$800
$850
$900
$950
$1,0002
$550
$600
$650
$700
$750
$800
$850
$900
$950
$1,000
$1,050
Hot Rolled Coil Cold Rolled Coil
OCTG
Prices for grade J55 electric resistance welded (“ERW”)
material, 4 1/2” to 8 5/8”, averaged $1,325 per net ton in
July 2018, consistent with the prior month, but rising from the
January 2018 average of $975, per SBB.
OCTG prices climbed over the first half of the year amid
momentum from the Section 232 steel tariffs and healthy
demand in the earlier months. However, the price increase has
begun to level out, as the higher pricing is not being matched
by higher demand. The oil and gas industry is stabilizing, with
the Baker Hughes’ U.S. oil and gas rig count rising only two
units from the prior week and 90 units from the prior year to
total 1,048 units for the week ended July 27, 2018, compared
to the week-over-week and year-over-year increases of 13 and
160 rigs, respectively, for the week ended May 11, 2018.
Market participants therefore remain cautious, awaiting market
cues before purchasing. According to American Metals Market,
OCTG prices began to fall off at the end of July and into August,
with one trader marking the drop as an adjustment rather
than a true correction, given the sufficient supplies held by
distributors for the remainder of the year.
7 | MONITOR METALS AUGUST 2018
Carbon Steel
REBAR
Prices for rebar, U.S. domestic ex-works Southeast, averaged
$698 per net ton in July 2018, remaining consistent since
April, but increasing from $580 in January 2018, per SBB.
Average rebar pricing in July climbed 20.3% since the
beginning of this year due to healthy demand and increased
buying activity in advance of Section 232 tariffs. More
recently, rebar prices stabilized after tariffs were in place, with
summer demand remaining steady. While demand typically
remains strong in the third quarter, demand may ease by the
end of the year.
$520
$540
$560
$580
$600
$620
$640
$660
$680
$700
$950
$1,000
$1,050
$1,100
$1,150
$1,200
$1,250
$1,300
$1,350
Rebar - Domestic EXW SoutheastMonthly Average Price/Net Ton - July 2017 to 20184
J55 ERWMonthly Average Price/Net Ton - July 2017 to 20185
However, the U.S. Treasury indicated on July 23 that it
was open to removing Rusal from the U.S. sanctions list.
Meanwhile, the Midwest premium surged 81% in the first half
of 2018 due to aluminum tariffs, according to Argus Metals,
reaching $0.20 per pound in July. Aluminum prices on the
London Metal Exchange (“LME”) fluctuated in the first half
of 2018 due to varying trade news before stabilizing more
recently as the market awaits trade cues.
Aluminum imports from most countries did not decline
significantly and actually increased in some cases, despite
tariffs. While overall aluminum imports, excluding Canada,
decreased 32.6% in May 2018 versus May 2017, the decline
was driven by sanctions imposed in early April against Rusal.
May 2018 unwrought aluminum imports from Russia dropped
83.6% from the prior month and 94.3% from the prior year.
While analysts forecast a global aluminum deficit of
approximately 771,400 tons in 2018, this figure is likely to
be reduced given the volatile trade environment and softer
demand, and LME pricing forecasts for the third quarter have
been revised downward from an average of $1.03 per pound
to $0.95 per pound.
8 | MONITOR METALS AUGUST 2018
Aluminum
Prices for P1020 primary aluminum ingot averaged $1.15 per
pound in July 2018, decreasing from $1.23 the prior month,
but remaining above the January 2018 average of $1.11.
The Midwest transaction price for P1020 aluminum ingot
increased 4.4% from January 2018 through June 2018,
peaking at $1.25 in May due to sanctions imposed in early
April against Russia-based Rusal, the world’s second-largest
aluminum company.
$0.90
$0.95
$1.00
$1.05
$1.10
$1.15
$1.20
$1.25
$1.30
P1020 Primary Aluminum Ingot - Delivered MidwestMonthly Average Price/Pound - July 2017 to 20186
9 | MONITOR METALS AUGUST 2018
Copper
7 CopperLME Monthly Average Price/Pound - July 2017 to 2018
The market price for copper on the LME averaged $2.83
per pound in July 2018, down from $3.15 the prior month
and $3.21 in January 2018. As China is the world’s largest
consumer of refined copper, prices have felt downward
pressure from the trade war between the U.S. and China, and
an impending slowdown in Chinese construction could also
temper copper demand. Should the trade conflict spur a sell-
off in the equity markets, copper prices could drop further,
according to INTL FCStone.
Copper fundamentals are also soft, given the surplus of
66,120 tons in the global refined copper market through April
2018, although this marks a decrease from the 168,600-
ton surplus recorded at the end of the first quarter, per
the International Copper Study Group. Copper production
in Indonesia and Japan climbed from last year after the
resolution of a strike and maintenance shutdown, while world
mine production continues to grow; however, supplies could
be threatened by labor concerns at the Escondida mine. Zinc
Zinc prices on the LME averaged $1.21 per pound in July
2018, down from $1.40 the prior month and $1.56 in January
2018. Zinc prices dropped from the 10-year high of $1.63 per
pound recorded in February as the market responded to the
uncertainty surrounding steel tariffs and exemptions, which
triggered fears of disruptions to the supply for zinc used in
steel galvanizing.
However, market fundamentals suggest a tightness in supply
for zinc concentrates, given the lack of growth in global mine
production, lower treatment charges, and word of forthcoming
Chinese production cuts, according to the International Lead
and Zinc Study Group. Analysts forecast a global zinc deficit in
the third quarter.
$2.60
$2.70
$2.80
$2.90
$3.00
$3.10
$3.20
$3.30
$1.15
$1.20
$1.25
$1.30
$1.35
$1.40
$1.45
$1.50
$1.55
$1.60
$1.65
ZincLME Monthly Average Price/Pound - July 2017 to 20188
10 | MONITOR METALS AUGUST 2018
Nickel
9 NickelLME Monthly Average Price/Pound - July 2017 to 2018
Nickel prices on the LME averaged $6.25 per pound in July
2018, declining from $6.85 the prior month, but remaining
above the January 2018 average of $5.84. While pricing
momentum slowed recently in line with most other base
metals due to the uncertain trade landscape, nickel prices
remain in a long-term upward trend, according to Metal Miner.
The International Nickel Study Group (“INSG”) reported a
global refined nickel market deficit of 39,100 metric tons
in the first quarter of 2018, which exceeded the deficit of
27,100 in the first quarter of 2017. For the full year of 2018,
INSG anticipates a deficit of 117,000 metric tons. However,
Nornickel, a mining company, foresees a smaller deficit of
70,000 metric tons for 2018, given the strong growth in
stainless steel production.
Stainless Steel
In July 2018, prices for grades 301 (7%), 304 (8%), and 316
stainless steel averaged $1.50, $1.59, and $2.13 per pound,
respectively, decreasing from the prior month, but remaining
above January 2018 levels. Stainless steel prices increased
in the first half of 2018 amid supply concerns related to trade
actions, and as rising nickel prices boosted stainless steel
surcharges. More recently, however, pricing stabilized.
Domestic stainless steel producers recently reported positive
second-quarter results. Universal Stainless & Alloy Products
logged a 26% jump in sales driven by strong demand from
all end-markets except for power generation. Allegheny
Technologies, Inc. recorded a 15% increase in second-quarter
sales, with robust results for flat rolled products due to solid
demand from several end-markets, as well as higher nickel
and ferrochrome surcharges.
$4.20
$4.40
$4.60
$4.80
$5.00
$5.20
$5.40
$5.60
$5.80
$6.00
$6.20
$6.40
$6.60
$6.80
$7.00
$1.20
$1.30
$1.40
$1.50
$1.60
$1.70
$1.80
$1.90
$2.00
$2.10
$2.20
Grade 301 (7%) Grade 304 (8%) Grade 316
Stainless Steel Cold Rolled CoilLME Monthly Average Price/Pound - July 2017 to 201810
The Metals Monitor provides market value trends in both
ferrous and non-ferrous metals. The commodity nature of
steel scrap, aluminum ingot, copper cathode, zinc, and
nickel often results in volatile market values. Our quarterly
Metals Monitor reflects pricing and market trends in order
to reflect significant developments in the metals markets.
The information contained herein is based on a composite
of GA’s industry expertise, contact with industry personnel,
industry publications, liquidation and appraisal experience,
and data compiled from a variety of well-respected sources.
GA does not make any representation or warranty, expressed
or implied, as to the accuracy or completeness of the
information contained in this issue. Neither GA nor any of its
representatives shall be liable for use of any of the information
in this issue or any errors therein or omissions therefrom.
Should you need any further information or wish to discuss
recovery ranges for a particular segment, please feel free to
contact your GA Business Development Officer. In addition,
contact a GA Business Development Officer for a Metals
Pricing Sheet or to make specific pricing requests.
Monitor Information
Experience
GA’s extensive record of metals inventory valuations features companies throughout the entire metal supply chain, including
foreign and domestic metal- and steel-producing mills; metal converters that produce tubing and pipe, as well as expanded,
grating, and perforated metal types; metal service centers/processors and distributors; structural and custom fabricators and
stampers; manufacturers that utilize metals as raw materials; and scrap yards, recyclers, dealers, and brokers. GA has also
appraised precious and specialty metals. GA has appraised metal products with applications in a wide variety of industries,
including the automotive, construction, aerospace, industrial machinery, appliance, and electrical equipment markets.
GA’s appraisal experience includes valuations of major businesses in the metals industry, including the following sampling:
• Steel mini-mills and producers of flat rolled steel products.
• Globally recognized vertically integrated manufacturers and distributors of steel tube, including OCTG.
• A vertically integrated producer of aluminum with over $1 billion in sales annually and over $130 million in inventory.
• A number of the largest scrap recycling processors in the U.S.
• Well-known service centers across the nation, including a multi-division full-line steel service center.
Moreover, GA has liquidated a number of companies with metal products, including Charleston Aluminum, Advanced
Composites, Aluminum Skylight & Specialty Corporation, Anello Corporation, Apex Pattern, Balox Fabricators, BJS Industries,
Buckner Foundry, Crown City Plating, GE Roto Flow, Laird Technology, Maddox Metal Works, Miller Pacific Steel, R.D.
Black Sheet Metal, Valley Brass Foundry, and Southline Steel. GA has also been involved in liquidations of metalworking
equipment for companies such as Adams Campbell Company, CAMtech Precision Manufacturing, Inc., Gregg Industries, Inc.,
International Piping Systems, Heat Transfer Products, PMC Machining and Manufacturing, Sherrill Manufacturing, Trans-Matic
Manufacturing, Veristeel, Inc., and Weiland Steel, Inc. In addition, GA maintains a staff of experienced metals experts with
personal contacts within the metals industry that we utilize for insight and perspective on recovery values.
11 | MONITOR METALS AUGUST 2018
Appraisal & Valuation Team
BUSINESS DEVELOPMENT
Scott Carpenter
President, GA Retail Solutions
(818) 746-9365
Adam Alexander
President, GA Global Partners
(818) 648-6000
ASSET DISPOSITION TEAM
Drew Jakubek
Managing Director
Southwest Region
(214) 455-7081
Bill Soncini
Managing Director
Midwest Region
(773) 495-4534
David Seiden
Executive Vice President
Southeast Region
(404) 808-8153
Daniel J. Williams
Managing Director
New York Region
(908) 251-3580
Ryan Mulcunry
Executive Vice President
Northeast Region, Canada & Europe
(857) 231-1711
Jennie Kim
Senior Vice President
Western Region
(818) 974-0602
12 | MONITOR METALS AUGUST 2018
Michael Petruski
Executive VP, General Manager
(561) 771-6886
OPERATIONS
Barry Lauer
Metals Consultant
John Mitchell
Metals Consultant
Kristi Faherty
Managing Director
(781) 429-4060
Ryan Lutz
Senior Project Manager
(781) 429-4052
Chad P. Yutka, ASA
Managing Director, CAVS Group
(312) 909-6078
Greg Trilevsky
Metals Consultant
Alex Tereszcuk
Metals Consultant
Dan Tracy
Metals Consultant
John Little
Metals Consultant
Matthew Zoia
Associate Project Manager
(781) 429-4062
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MONITOR METALSGREATAMERICAN.COMAUGUST 2018800-45-GREAT
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