Quantitative Precipitation Estimation (QPE) and Quantitative Precipitation
Forecasting (QPF) of Japan Meteorological Agency
Masashi KUNITSUGUHead, National Typhoon Center Japan Meteorological Agency
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TYPHOON COMMITTEE Integrated Workshop on Urban Flood Risk Management in a Changing Climate: Sustainable and Adaptation
Challenges
Macao, China 06-10 September 2010
PrologueWeather disasters in Japan
Floodand
Landslide
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Torrential rain during BAIU, example of 21st July 2009
One day precipitation (21st July 2009)
275.0 mm at Houfu city
Hourly and total precipitation
×
0 100km
3
24hr
6hr
Landslide
Landslide14 people were killed at Houfu City by debris flow (21st July 2009)
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24hr
Torrential rain around tropical depression, example of 9th Aug 2009
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0 100km
326.5 mm
One day precipitation (9th Aug 2009)
6hr
Hourly and total precipitation
326.5 mm Flood
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Wat
er L
evel
(m)
Flood20 people were killed by flood ( 9th Aug 2009)
Flood water level
6hr
Water level Water level
Heavy rain in a small area → DisasterHow to estimate the possibility of disaster?
Consecutive automatic system
Step 1. Observation of precipitation (Radar, Surface)
Step 2. Analysis and forecast of precipitation
Step 3. Hydrological index (Soil water index and runoff index)
Warning ? or not?25 min.
input
input
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Heavy rain in a small area → DisasterHow to estimate the possibility of disaster?
Consecutive automatic system
Step 1. Observation of precipitation (Radar, Surface)
Step 2. Analysis and forecast of precipitation
Step 3. Hydrological index (Soil water index and runoff index)
Warning ? or not?25 min.
input
input
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Observation NetworksRain Gauge (Automatic Weather Station)
1,300: JMA
5,500: Local Governments
3,200: River Bureau
0 200 400 km0 200 400 km
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Observation NetworksRadars16: Doppler radars4: Conventional radars26: Radars (River Bureau)
“One Composite Radar Chart” 10
0 200 400 km0 200 400 km
Heavy rain in a small area → DisasterHow to estimate the possibility of disaster?
Consecutive automatic system
Step 1. Observation of precipitation (Radar, Surface)
Step 2. Analysis and forecast of precipitation
Step 3. Hydrological index (Soil water index and runoff index)
Warning ? or not?25 min.
input
input
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Precipitation Analysis
Weather Radars
1-hr precipitation Every 30min. 1km×1km resolution20min. after obs.
1-hr precipitation Every 30min. 1km×1km resolution20min. after obs.
Rain gauges
Not Radar-Echo but Analyzed Precipitation 12
0 200 400 km0 200 400 km
2003.7.20.5
. 30
鹿児島県
熊本県
八代海
天草Radar data
Precipitation Analysis
Precipitation
Rain-gauge
Analysis
Max 30 mmMax 30 mm
Max 73 mm Max 73 mm
Rain gauge data
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Precipitation Analysis
0 40km
0 40km
calibrated radar data
1-hr precipitation 2003.7.21 05JST1-hr precipitation 2003.7.21 05JST
Precipitation Forecast - Very Short Range Forecast (VSRF)
Q: What is VSRF?
A: Quantitative precipitation forecast using radar-echo extrapolation and meso-scale NWP (MSM) GPV.
[Notes]•Issued every 30min up to 6 hours ahead•The longer the forecast time, the higher the weight of NWP(Changing merging weight every forecast time) •Orographic effect of precipitation (Seeder-feeder model) considered
0
0.05
0.1
0.15
0.2
0.25
0.3
0.35
0.4
0.45
0.5
1 2 3 4 5 6
CSI
Forecast Time(hour)
extrapolation
MSM
VSRF
14The threat score (CSI) of VSRF for Sept 2008 (Over 10mm/400km2, only land area)
0 100km
Comparison of observation and VSRF
Observation VSRFCompare the VSRF with the same time observation
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0 100km 0 100km
Heavy rain in a small area → DisasterHow to estimate the possibility of disaster?
Consecutive automatic system
Step 1. Observation of precipitation (Radar, Surface)
Step 2. Analysis and forecast of precipitation
Step 3. Hydrological index (runoff index and Soil water index)
Warning ? or not?25 min.
input
input
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Flood potential: Runoff Index
Precipitation Runoff Index
Time
Water Level
Runoff IndexEvery 5km along the river
Runoff IndexEvery 5km along the river
Travel down the riverTravel down the river
Outflow to the riverOutflow to the river
PrecipitationPrecipitation
2007 年 9 月 7 日 0時
2007 年 9 月 7 日 0時
2007 年 9 月 7 日 6時
2007 年 9 月 7 日12 時
2007 年 9 月 7 日 6時
2007 年 9 月 7 日12 時
PrecipitationPrecipitation
Runoff IndexRunoff Index
Potential of Sediment Disaster: Soil Water Index water flow in soil
Storage
Permeation
Surface runoff
Shallow runoff
Groundwater runoff
Precipitation
First tank
Surface runoff
Second tank
Third tank
Shallow runoff
Groundwater runoff
Permeation
Permeation
Storage
Storage
Storage
“Soil Water Index” is equivalent to the total storage volume of three serial tanks
Permeation
Soil Water Index
Total Storage
Total Storage
180 100km
Tank modelTank model
observation forecast
Warnings Advisories Disasters
Heavy Rain Heavy Rain Sediment Disaster; Inundation of houses, load, farming land
Flood Flood Flood; Dike break; Washout of bank; Inundation etc.
Storm Surge Storm Surge Inundation; Damage of ships, shore facilities including ones for fishery etc.
Storm Gale Damage of houses, buildings, agricultural crops etc.; Maritime disaster
High Wave High Wave Maritime disaster; Inundation; Damage of ships, shore facilities including ones for fishery etc.
Heavy Snow Heavy Snow Traffic disturbance; Damage of houses etc.
Snow-storm Snow-storm Traffic disturbance; Damage of houses, buildings etc.; Maritime disaster
Thunderstorm Disasters caused by Thunderbolt, hail, gust (tornado, downburst)
Dense Fog Traffic disturbance, Maritime disaster
Frost Damage of agricultural crops in early/late winter
Dry Air Fire disaster; Forest fire
Avalanche Avalanche except steep mountain areas
Low Temperature Water pipe freeze-up and break; Damage of agricultural crops
Snow-melting Flood, Sediment disaster, Inundation
Ice Accretion Significant accretion of ice on electric power cable, communication wire, vessel’s body
Snow Accretion Significant accretion of snow on electric power cable, communication wire
Meteorological Warnings and Advisories of JMA
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Hokkaido
Tohoku
Kanto/Koshin
Hokuriku
Tokai
Kinki
Northern Kyushu
ShikokuSouthern Kyushu
Chugoku
Sapporo
Sendai
National Forecasting Center
Niigata
Nagoya
Osaka
Takamatsu
Hiroshima
Fukuoka
Kagoshima
OkinawaNaha
Tokyo/headquarters
Red : Area of responsibility (colored)Blue : Regional forecast center
Hokkaido
Tohoku
Kanto/Koshin
Hokuriku
Tokai
Kinki
Northern Kyushu
ShikokuSouthern Kyushu
Chugoku
Sapporo
Sendai
National Forecast Center
Niigata
Nagoya
Osaka
Takamatsu
Hiroshima
Fukuoka
Kagoshima
OkinawaNaha
Tokyo /headquarters
Red: Area of responsibility (colored)Blue: Regional forecast center
Regional Forecast Centers: (11)
Local Meteorological Observatories: (56)
National Forecast Center: (1, Tokyo)
JMA’s structure for operational forecast, advisory/warning
FukushimaFukushima
LMO is responsible for issuing forecast, advisory and warning.
Let’s see an example of Fukushima pref.
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Fukushima L.M.OFukushima L.M.O
0 100km
Target area of Forecast and Warning (Fukushima pref.)
As from May 2010,Warnings/Advisories are issued for each municipalities (cities)Target Warning Zones (374) Cities (about 1,800)⇒
Aizu
NakadoriHamadoriChina
JapanJapan
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number総数
responsible area平均面積
H.Q. 1 377, 835km²L.M.O. 56 ~7,000km²
Forecast zone 173 ~2,000km²,Warning zone 374 ~1,000km²Municipalities 1,800 ~ 200km²
Population 2,052,969Area 13,782km²Forecast zone 3Warning zone 9Municipalities: 45 45
Fukushima Prefecture
Forecast and Warning zone
Fukushima L.M.OFukushima L.M.O
0 100km
Target area of Forecast and Warning (Fukushima pref.)
As from May 2010,Warnings/Advisories are issued for each municipalities (cities)Target Warning Zones (374) Cities (about 1,800)⇒
Aizu
NakadoriHamadoriChina
JapanJapan
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number総数
responsible area平均面積
H.Q. 1 377, 835km²L.M.O. 56 ~7,000km²
Forecast zone 173 ~2,000km²,Warning zone 374 ~1,000km²Municipalities 1,800 ~ 200km²
Population 2,052,969Area 13,782km²Forecast zone 3Warning zone 9Municipalities: 45 45
Fukushima Prefecture
0 100km 45
municipalities
Forecast and Warning zone
Heavy rain in a small area → DisasterHow to estimate the possibility of disaster?
Consecutive automatic system
Step 1. Observation of precipitation (Radar, Surface)
Step 2. Analysis and forecast of precipitation
Step 3. Hydrological index (runoff index and Soil water index)
Warning ? or not?25 min.
input
input
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Forecaster controls distribution (5km resolution) and sequence of precipitation using forecaster-aid system.
New system to assist forecasters
Warning
Advisory
The system proposes warning/advisory cities and towns to forecasters.
Improvement of Forecaster-aid Systemcontrol of 5km mesh precipitation distribution
comparison to warning criteria for respective cities
0 40km
5km×5km
Analysis
Composit map
ECHO Intensity
ECHO top
VSRF
Hazardous Wind potential
Soil Water Index
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RADARECHO Intensity
ECHO top
Rain gauges
Summary (diagram of various products)
Runoff Index
Lightning Nowcast
NWP
Very Short Range Forecast (VSRF)• Radar data (10min → 5min)• Improving process of growth and decay of rainfall area
Advanced man-machine interactive system & technique•Research of heavy-rainfall mechanism•Forecaster-friendly interface to support forecaster’s considerationproviding information using various new technologies
Numerical model (NWP)•Local Forecast Model
2km, run every hour, up to 9 hours, 3D-Var•Meso-scale ensemble forecast system
10km, 5 members
Key Items for future development rainfall distribution forecast (up to 24 hours, in particular up to 3 hours)
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Thank you
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