Market situation in the Olive oil
and Table olives sectors
Committee for the Common Organisation of the Agricultural
Markets – Arable crops and olive oil
26 April 2018
Laurent Mercier , AGRI G.4
2
OLIVE OIL PRODUCTION,
CONSUMPTION & ENDING
STOCKS
3
Source: International Olive Council & MS declarations
2017/18 vs 2016/17 ● WORLD +27% ● EU +22% ● non-EU +38%
2.402
3.252
2.458
3.177
2.541
3.222
1.462
2.483
1.435
2.324
1.750
2.133
936769
1.024853 792
1.089
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
3000
3500
2012/13 2013/14 2014/15 2015/16 2016/17 (prov.) 2017/18 (est.)
OLIVE OIL PRODUCTION (1000t)WORLDEUnon-EUAverage world 2012/13-2016/17
excl. pomace oil;
4
excl. pomace oil Source: International Olive Council; MS declarations
EU production in 2017/18 13% above 5-year average
618
1.782
842
1.403 1.291 1.250
416 464222
475
182425
358
132300 320 195
320
59 92 61 10969
12511 14 9 17 13 13
1.462
2.483
1.435
2.324
1.750
2.133
0
500
1.000
1.500
2.000
2.500
3.000
2012/13 2013/14 2014/15 2015/16 2016/17 (prov.) 2017/18 (est.)
EU OLIVE OIL PRODUCTION (1000t)excl.pomace oil
variation 2017/18 vs 2016/17
Spain (-3%)Italy (+133%)Greece (+64%)Portugal (+80%)Others EU (+7%)EU total (+22%)Average 2012/13-2016/17
excl. pomace oil;
5
Source: International Olive Council excl. pomace oil
Non-EU production in 2017/18 25% above 5-year average
6
2.902 3.061 3.086 2.989 3.076 2.916 2.980 2.739
2.988
1.830 1.862 1.787 1.620 1.726 1.605 1.660 1.399 1.583
-
1.000
2.000
3.000
4.000Olive oil consumption
(1000t)
World EU
IOC marketing years Oct-Sept; excl. pomace olive oil;
7
455
631
211
432
320
421
0
200
400
600
800
30.9.2013 30.9.2014 30.9.2015 30.9.2016 30.9.2017 (prov.) 30.9.2018 (est.)
EU olive oil ending stocks (1000t)EU ending stocks
Average last 5 years
2509
2991
2291
2633
2273
2614
2112
2326
21132234
1955
2163
1500
2000
2500
3000
3500
2012/13 2013/14 2014/15 2015/16 2016/17 (prov.) 2017/18 (est.)
EU olive oil availabilities and uses (1000t)Availabilities (stocks+prod.+ import extra EU)
Average availabilities last 5 years
Uses (consumption+exports extra EU)
Average uses last 5 years
Source: MS declarations, IOC, Eurostat
8
EU OLIVE OIL EXTRA-TRADE
9
2016/17 Oct 16-Feb17
tonnes share tonnes share tonnes share tonnes %
Tunisia 75.988 69% 65.251 59% 49.220 60% 33.185 48%
Morocco 11.513 10% 17.539 16% 8.185 10% 11.084 -26%
Turkey 594 1% 5.781 5% 7.130 9% 1.456 390%
Argentina 9.201 8% 4.742 4% 5.337 6% 1.018 424%
Others 12.867 12% 17.829 16% 12.673 15% 6.075 109%
EXTRA EU 110.163 111.142 82.546 52.819 56%
Source: Eurostat/Comext
Periods October - September
CN codes 1509 & 1510, all stat. regimes
EU imports of olive oil (t)
change Oct 17-Feb18 vs
Oct 16-Feb17Oct 17-Feb182015/16ORIGIN
10
Source: Eurostat/Comext©
Reminder: Change of CN codes as of 1.1.2017: 15091090 becomes
15091020 (extra virgin)
15091080 (virgin other than lampante)
-
5.000
10.000
15.000
20.000
25.000
30.000
35.000
Extra EU olive oil IMPORTS per CATEGORY (t)Pomace oil (CN 1510)"Olive oil" (CN 15099000)Virgin lampante (CN 15091010)Virgin other than lampante (CN 15091080)Extra virgin (CN15091020)Extra virgin + virgin other than lampante (CN 15091090)Average previous 3 marketing years
11
Inward processing (IP) – a relief from customs duty and import VAT on goods that are imported from outside the EU to be processed, and then exported outside the EU or released for free circulation in the EU. Excise duty is also suspended when goods are entered into IP.
-
5.000
10.000
15.000
20.000
25.000
30.000
IMPORTS of olive oil from TUNISIA (t)Inward processingQuota + out of quotaAverage 3 previous marketing years (inward processing)Average 3 previous marketing years (quota+out of quota)
Source: Eurostat/Comext©; CN 150910
12
13
18.902(33%)
0,0
5.000,0
10.000,0
15.000,0
20.000,0
25.000,0
30.000,0
35.000,0
40.000,0
45.000,0
50.000,0
55.000,0
60.000,0
ton
s
Olive oil imports from Tunisia (Bilateral quota of 56700t, order no. 09.4032)
cumul quantities Bilateral quota (56700t)
Source: DG Taxud Surveillance; situation 12.03.2018
14
Oct 16-Feb17
change Oct 17-Feb 18
vs Oct 16-Feb17
tonnes share tonnes share tonnes share tonnes %
USA 248.018 38% 236.944 37% 79.848 32% 95.404 -16%
Brazil 46.212 7% 45.964 7% 31.503 13% 19.705 60%
Japan 53.708 8% 51.940 8% 19.381 8% 20.636 -6%
China 43.955 7% 38.815 6% 16.490 7% 15.809 4%
Canada 29.266 4% 27.828 4% 12.273 5% 12.248 0%
Australia 26.288 4% 26.907 4% 9.236 4% 12.945 -29%
Russia 16.581 3% 16.613 3% 6.977 3% 6.623 5%
Others 191.142 29% 188.926 30% 76.103 30% 78.815 -3%
EXTRA EU 655.170 633.938 251.810 262.183 -4%
Source: Eurostat/Comext
Periods October - September
CN codes 1509 & 1510, all stat. regimes
EU exports of olive oil (t)
2016/17 DESTINATION Oct 17-Feb182015/16
15
Source: Eurostat/Comext©
-
10.000
20.000
30.000
40.000
50.000
60.000
70.000
Extra EU olive oil EXPORTS per CATEGORY (t)Pomace oil (CN 1510)"Olive oil" (CN 15099000)Virgin lampante (CN 15091010)Virgin other than lampante (CN 15091080)Extra virgin (CN 15091020)Extra virgin + virgin other than lampante (CN 15091090)Average previous 3 marketing years
16
OLIVE OIL INTRA-TRADE
Oct 2017-Jan 2018 vs. Oct 2016-Jan 2017
17
Olive oil intra trade 2017/18* (CN 1509)
(thousands tons)
Origin (declared EXPORTS) TOTAL
volume volume volume volume volume volume total CN 1509
Spain 4,3 12,8% 2,1 3,6% 26,1 64,8% 0,0 1,6% 0,1 1,7% 32,6
Italy 77,9 44,6% 46,8 81,8% 11,3 28,0% 0,1 3,8% 0,3 4,6% 136,3
Greece 0,3 0,2% 0,1 0,4% 0,0 0,0% 0,0 0,0% 0,0 0,2% 0,5
Portugal 33,3 19,0% 0,0 0,0% - 0,0% 0,0 0,2% 0,0 0,1% 33,3
France 26,2 15,0% 6,6 19,6% 0,5 0,9% 1,1 2,8% 0,5 8,8% 34,9
UK 15,3 8,7% 4,0 11,9% 0,5 0,9% 0,0 0,1% 0,0 1,5% 0,3 5,9% 20,2
Germany 5,5 3,1% 10,2 30,3% 3,8 6,6% 0,1 0,3% 0,8 38,6% 0,4 7,5% 20,8
Netherlands 5,4 3,1% 1,6 4,7% 0,2 0,4% 0,4 0,9% 0,1 4,7% 0,6 11,1% 8,2
Others 11,0 6,3% 6,8 20,4% 3,3 5,8% 1,2 3,0% 1,0 49,6% 3,4 60,2% 26,8
TOTAL 174,9 100% 33,5 100% 57,2 100% 40,3 100% 2,0 100% 5,7 100% 313,7
Total same period previous campaign 350,1
Difference same period previous
campaign -10%
* From 01/10/2017 - 31/01/2018
Excl olive pomace oil
Source: Comext/Eurostat (Data transmission to Eurostat: 40 days for aggregated results)
All stat. regimes
Others
Destination % share
on total
% share
on total
% share
on total
% share
on total
% share
on total
% share
on total
Spain Italy Greece Portugal France
5,7
-21% -21% 34% 21% -61% 0%
220,8 42,5 42,5 33,3 5,3
18
EU OLIVE OIL PRICES (until 15.4.2018)
19 Source: MS declarations (R1185/2017)
EXTRA VIRGIN CATEGORY
20
Favourable Climatic Conditions since January 2018
21
Source: MS declarations (R1185/2017)
VIRGIN CATEGORY
22 Source: MS declarations (R1185/2017)
LAMPANTE CATEGORY
23
TABLE OLIVES
24
25
61 66 66 74 75
26 26
4244 38 32 31
15 14
513
14 18 22
179
7
6 78
10
43
115129 126 132
138
6252
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
Oct 2012-Sept2013
Oct 2013-Sept2014
Oct 2014-Sept2015
Oct 2015-Sept2016
Oct 2016-Sep 2017 Oct 17-Feb18 Oct 16-Feb17
10
00
t
Extra EU IMPORTS of table olives (1000t)
per originOthersEgyptTurkeyMorocco
Source: Eurostat/Comext©; CN codes 07099210, 07108010, 07112010, 20019065, 200570
Oct 2017-Feb 2018 vs Oct2016-Feb2017
26
118 123 120 125 141
61 59
113 117148 159
165
63 68
20 20
2023
24
10 10
13 14
1316
17
6 7
51 5243
4348
21 20
1025
257
8
3 3
325352
370 373403
164 167
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
450
Oct 2012-Sept2013
Oct 2013-Sept2014
Oct 2014-Sept2015
Oct 2015-Sept2016
Oct 2016-Sep 2017 Oct 17-Feb18 Oct 16-Feb17
10
00
t
Extra EU EXPORTS of table olives (1000t)
per destinationBrazil RussiaAustralia CanadaUSA Others
Source: Eurostat/Comext©; CN codes 07099210, 07108010, 07112010, 20019065, 200570
Oct 2017-Feb 2018 vs Oct 2016-Feb2017
27
Thank you
More market information on olive oil:
https://ec.europa.eu/agriculture/olive-oil_en