Download - Mark A. Ruffalo (Water Defense) Marco Krapels ( Rabobank ) Mark Z. Jacobson (Stanford University)
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Mark A. Ruffalo (Water Defense)Marco Krapels (Rabobank)Mark Z. Jacobson (Stanford University)
How to Power the World and U.S. With Wind, Water and Sunlight
Talks at GoogleMountain View, California
June 20, 2012
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What’s the Problem? Why Act Quickly?
Air pollution mortality is one of five leading causes of death worldwide
Global temperatures are rising faster than during deglaciation at end of last ice age; Arctic sea ice is decreasing quickly
Higher population and growing energy demand will result in higher energy prices and worse air pollution and climate problems over time.
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Norilsk, Russia
http://www.worldinterestingfacts.com/infrastructure/top-10-most-polluted-cities-in-the-world.html
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http://www.worldinterestingfacts.com/infrastructure/top-10-most-polluted-cities-in-the-world.html
Sukinda, India
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http://www.worldinterestingfacts.com/infrastructure/top-10-most-polluted-cities-in-the-world.html
Linfen, China
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Lung of LA Teenage Nonsmoker in 1970s; Lungs of People in Most Big Cities of the World Today
SCAQMD/CARB
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http://arctic.atmos.uiuc.edu/cryosphere/1900-2011
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Mean Global Temperature Anomalies
NASA GISS, 2012
WARMEST YEARS1. 20102. 20053. 20074. 19985. 20096. 20117. 20068. 20039. 200210. 2004
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ELECTRIC POWER VEHICLES
Recommended – Wind, Water, Sun (WWS)
1. Wind 2. CSP WWS-Battery-Electric3. Geothermal 4. Tidal WWS-Hydrogen Fuel Cell5. PV 6. Wave7. Hydroelectricity
Not RecommendedNuclear Corn, cellulosic, sugarcane ethanolCoal-CCS Soy, algae biodieselNatural gas, biomass Compressed natural gas
Cleanest Solutions to Global Warming, Air Pollution, Energy Security – Energy & Env. Sci, 2, 148 (2009)
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9-25 times more pollution per kWh than wind from mining & refining uranium and using fossil fuels for electricity during the 11-19 years to permit (6-10 y) and construct (4-9 y) nuclear plant compared with 2-5 years for a wind or solar farm
Risk of meltdown (1.5% of all nuclear reactors to date have melted)Risk of nuclear weapons proliferation
Unresolved waste issues
Why Not Nuclear?
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50 times more CO2 emissions per kWh than wind
150 times more air pollutant emissions per kWh than wind
Requires 25% more energy, thus 25% more coal mining and transport and traditional pollution than normal coal.
Why Not Clean Coal (With Carbon Capture)?
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Corn and cellulosic E85 cause same or higher air pollution as gasoline
Corn E85: 90-200% of CO2 emissions of gasoline
Cellulosic E85: 50-150% of CO2 emissions of gasoline
Wind-BEVs: <1% of CO2 emissions as gasoline
Enormous land use and water requirements
Why Not Ethanol?
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50-70 times more CO2 and air pollution emissions per kWh than wind
Hydrofracking causes land and water supply degradation
Methane leaks a leading cause of Arctic ice loss over next 20 years
Why Not Natural Gas?
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www.mywindpowersystem.com
Wind Power, Wind-Driven Wave Power
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www.gizmag.comwww.inhabitat.com
myecoproject.orgwww.sir-ray.com
Hydroelectric, Geothermal, Tidal Power
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Torresol Gemasolar Spain, 15 hrs storage,Matthew Wright, Beyond Zero
Concentrated Solar Power, PV Power
www.solarthermalmagazine.comi.treehugger.com
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Tesla Roadster all electric
weeble.netwww.blogcdn.comwww.greenlaunches.comwww.ecofriend.comwww.blogcdn.com
Hydrogen fuel cell–electric hybrid busHydrogen fuel cell bus
Nissan Leaf all electric Tesla Model S all electric
Electric truck
Electric/Hydrogen Fuel Cell Vehicles
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Zmships.eu
Ecofriend.org
Ec.europa.eu
Electric shipupload.wikimedia.org
Concentrated Solar Power, PV Power
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Midlandpower.com
Heat pump water heaterConservpros.com Adaptivebuilders.com
Air-Source Heat Pump, Air Source Electric
Water Heater, Solar Water Pre-Heater
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WORLD U.S.2010 12.5 TW 2.50 TW
2030 with current fuels 16.9 TW 2.83 TW
2030 converting all energy To wind-water-sun (WWS) and electricty/H2 11.5 TW 1.78 TW
(32% reduction) (37% reduction)
End Use Power Demand For All Purposes
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TECHNOLOGY PCT SUPPLY 2030NUMBER5-MW wind turbines 50% 3.8 mill. (0.8% in place)0.75-MW wave devices 1
720,000100-MW geothermal plants 4 5350 (1.7% in place)1300-MW hydro plants 4
900 (70% in place)1-MW tidal turbines 1
490,0003-kW Roof PV systems 6
1.7 billion300-MW Solar PV plants 1440,000300-MW CSP plants 20
49,000
100%
Number of Plants or Devices to Power World
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Cellulosic E854.7-35.4% of US
Solar PV-BEV0.077-0.18%
Corn E859.8-17.6% of
US
Wind-BEVFootprint 1-2.8 km2
Turbine spacing 0.35-0.7% of US
Geoth BEV0.006-0.008%
Nuclear-BEV0.05-0.062%Footprint 33% of total; the rest is buffer
Area to Power 100% of U.S. Onroad Vehicles
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-180 -90 0 18090
0
-90
90
6
2
10
4
8
All wind over land in high-wind areas outside Antarctica ~ 70-80 TW= 6-7 times world end-use WWS power demand 2030 of 11.5 TW
m/s
World Wind Speeds at 100m
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All solar over land in high-solar locations~ 340 TW= 30 times world end-use WWS power demand 2030 of 11.5 TW
m/s
World Surface Solar
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Hart and Jacobson (2011); www.stanford.edu/~ehart/
End Use Power Demand For All Purposes
In these tests, California electricity was obtained from WWS for 99.8% of all hours in 2005, 2006. Can oversize WWS capacity, use demand-response, forecast weather, use more CSP to reduce natural gas backup more.
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COUNTRY RESOURCES Needed to power 50% of world with windChina 16CIS 3.8U.S. 2.1Australia 1India 0.2Others 4.1World 27.3 4.4 (0.1 Tg/yr for 44 years)Current production: 0.022 Tg/yr
periodictable.com
Resources for Nd2O3 (Tg) Used in Permanent Magnets for Wind Turbine Generators
Jacobson & Delucchi (2011)
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COUNTRY RESOURCES Possible number of vehicles @10kg/eachBolivia 9 with current known land resourcesChile 7.5China 5.4U.S. 4Argentina 2.6Brazil 1Other 3.5World land 33 3.3 billion+ (currently 800 million)Oceans 240
www.saltsale.com
Resources for Lithium (Tg) Used in Batteries
Jacobson & Delucchi (2011)
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ENERGY TECHNOLOGY 2008-2010 2020-2030Wind onshore 4-7
≤4Wind offshore 10-17
8-13Wave >>11
4-11Geothermal 4-7
4-7Hydroelectric 4
4CSP 10-15
7-8Solar PV 9-13
5-7Tidal >>11
5-7Conventional (+Externalities) 7 (+5.3)=12.3 8-9.6(+5.7)=13.7-15.3
Costs of Energy, Including Transmission (¢/kWh)
Jacobson & Delucchi (2011)
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Converting to Wind, Water, & Sun (WWS) and electricity/H2 will reduce global power demand by ~32%
Eliminates 2.5-3 million air pollution deaths/year
Eliminates global warming, provides energy stability
2030 electricity cost 4-10¢/kWh for most, 8-13 for some WWS ,vs. fossil-fuel direct+externality cost ~13.5¢/kWh
Additional long-distance transmission (1200-2000 km) ~1¢/kWh
Summary of Plan to Power World with WWS
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Summary of Plan to Power World with WWSRequires only 0.4% more of world land for footprint; 0.6% for spacing (vs. 40% of world land for cropland and pasture)
Multiple methods of addressing WWS variability.
Materials are not limits although recycling may be needed.
Barriers : up-front costs, transmission needs, lobbying, politics.
Papers:www.stanford.edu/group/efmh/jacobson/Articles/I/susenergy2030.html
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Scientific conclusion:WWS can power the USA
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Businesses need energy price stabilityand predictability. Oil and gas can’tprovide that. Solar, wind and water
can.
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There's plenty of it: 1 hour of the sun's energy can power the planet for
a year.
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Elon Musk “all life on earth already is powered by the sun. We're next...”
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Google definition of Fossil: An antiquated
or stubbornly unchanging person or thing.
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Over the last 100 years, trillions of dollar have been invested in building a
fossil fuel dependent energy infrastructure.
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Since 1960 the oil and gas industry has received $400 billion in US
subsidies They are still receiving
$4 billion per year…
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California Electricity Prices Outpace Inflation, 1970-2011
Source Data: *U.S. Energy Information Administration: California’s Average Retail Electricity Price**U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, Urban Consumer Price Index (rebased)
1970
1972
1974
1976
1978
1980
1982
1984
1986
1988
1990
1992
1994
1996
1998
2000
2002
2004
2006
2008
2010
02468
10121416
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
Power (cents/kilowatt-hour)* Inflation**
Annual Inflation 4.3% (CAGR)
Annual Electricity Price Increase 6.1% (CAGR)
Cen
ts/kW
h
CPI I
n-de
x
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Rabobank, N.A.
Key Facts:Location: Hanford, CA (Central Valley)System Size: 887 kW DCConfiguration: Single-axis trackerExpected first year energy production: 1,716,851 kWhUtility Offset: Expected to replace 78% of utility power use at meterPower Equivalency: Solar production equal to 243 homes in California
Lakeside Dairy is a family-run dairy operation with 6,300 head of cattle and a custom farming business. The recent volatility in milk prices hasunderlined the importance of hedging costs. The solar energy system enables Lakeside to hedge against long run increases in utility power rates, improving the client’s business and creditworthiness.
The solar array is at the bottom of the picture at right.
Committment to Renewable Energy: Direct Financing - Lakeside Dairy
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Key Facts:Location: Delano, CA (Central Valley)System Size: 1,184 kW DCConfiguration: Fixed ground mountExpected first year energy production: 1,771,507 kWhUtility Offset: Expected to replace 69% of utility power usePower Equivalency: Solar production equal to 251 homes in California
Castle Rock Vineyards is one of the world’s largest table grape growers. Many of Castle Rock’s European clients inquire about sustainability, making green technology and practices an integral part of Castle Rock’s business. Their solar energy system, financed by Rabobank, powers their cold storage facility. Rabobank structured the loan with a customized amortized loan to match the seasonality of solar energy production and associated state incentives. The value of avoided utility payments, combined with federal and state incentives, enables Castle Rock to generate net positive cash flow on a quarterly basis after loan payments. After the loan is paid off, Castle Rock’s savings will increase correspondingly. As utility electricity prices rise over time, their annual savings will increase.
Committment to Renewable Energy: Direct Financing - Castle Rock
Rabobank, N.A.
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Committment to Renewable Energy – Main Financial Drivers
Main Financial Subsidies/Benefits from Ownership of a Renewable Energy Project
30% Investment Tax Credit or Cash Grant The American Recovery and Reinvestment Act (ARRA) of 2009 allows eligible taxpayers to take an investment tax credit (ITC) or to
receive a cash grant from the U.S. Treasury Department. The grant in lieu of tax credit option falls under section 1603 of the ARRA and is only available to systems where construction began
prior to December 31, 2011.
Depreciation Benefits Business owned systems may be eligible for MACRS 5-year Accelerated Depreciation The Tax Relief, Unemployment Insurance Reauthorization, and Job Creation Act of 2010 allows for 50% bonus depreciation in 2012 for
projects placed in service for by December 31, 2012 "Bonus Depreciation" means acceleration of the otherwise applicable depreciation (not "more" depreciation, but "sooner"
depreciation) Depreciable basis of a Renewable Energy System is 85% of project cost (the depreciable basis is reduced by one-half of the tax credit
total or 15%) Net Depreciation Impact: Assuming a 35% Federal Tax Rate, depreciation could account for approximately 30% of the cost of the
renewable energy project
State Incentives Based on the production of the renewable energy system Incentives varies by state/utility; may account to 5%-10% of the total cost of the project
Rabobank, N.A.
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Mark A. Ruffalo (Water Defense)http://www.waterdefense.org/
Marco Krapels (Rabobank)http://www.rabobank.com/content/
Mark Z. Jacobson (Atmosphere/Energy Program, Stanford University)http://www.stanford.edu/group/efmh/jacobson/http://www.stanford.edu/group/efmh/jacobson/Articles/I/
susenergy2030.html