Bernardo Baeta Neves Strassburg
Instituto Internacional para Sustentabilidade
Rio de Janeiro, Brasil
Mato Grosso: realising the land-sparing potential from increased agricultural productivity
Mato Grosso Context
•Highest deforestation rates of the Amazon and Cerrado •40% of state natural cover converted •Strong projected increase of soybean for the next decade (up to 3.5 mi ha)
Biome Deforested Area Remaining
Area Total Area
Km2 % Km2 % Km2 %
Amazon 204 39 322 61 526 58
Cerrado 157 42 220 58 377 42
Total 361 40 542 60 903 100 6,0
6,5
7,0
7,5
8,0
8,5
9,0
20102011201220132014201520162017201820192020
Soyb
ean
Are
a (m
i ha)
Increasing Cattle Ranching Productivity as main option to conciliate conservation and agricultural expansion
•First estimate of the potential to increase productivity of Brazilian pasturelands; •Current Productivity = 32% carrying capacity •Increasing it to 49-51% would suffice to meet all projected land demands up to 2040;
Current Productivity Potential Productivity Alocation in 2040
Improved Use of Existing Lands: Meeting Demands and Sparing Nature in Brazil Strassburg, BBN; Latawiec, AE; Barioni, LG; Assad, E; Valentin, J; Porfirio dos Santos, V; Nobre, C.
under review, Nature Climate Change
… will land sparing follow cattle ranching intensification ?
But…
Land Sparing vs. Rebound Effect
Price
Quantity
S1
S2 •Increased Productivity •More production per area •Higher returns per unit produced
•The relative weight of these effects will determine the final impact of increased productivity
1990 2000
Productivity (t/ha) 2.01 3.02
Production (mi t) 3.0 8.7
Area (mi ha) 1.5 2.9
Soybean in Mato Grosso:
Rebound Effect
Demand*
Q1 Q2
* For producers in region under intervention
… how to realise the potential for land sparing from increased productivity?
So…
Associate incentives to increase productivity with conservation measures C
hal
len
ge
Co
mp
on
en
ts
Stra
tegi
es
Conciliate conservation and agriculture expansion
Conservation of remaining forests
Restoration of Degraded Forests
Improved Use of Agricultural lands
Control illegal deforestation
Apply market pressure against deforestation
(soy moratorium, sectoral agreements)
Create incentives for the conservation and
sustainable management of the forest
Monitor and strengthen the
compliance with forest code
Provide technical assiatance, credit and
incentives
Increase productivity (Good practices)
Increase area under multiple uses: Crop-
Livestock, Agroforestry, Silvipastoral systems
Implement spatial planning to prioritise
areas
Associate incentives to increase productivity with land sparing
“Land Neutral Agricultural Expansion”(LNAE*) mechanism •Incentives for cattle ranching intensification associated with the mitigation or compensation of agricultural expansion (soybean);
“Land Neutral Ecological Restoration”(LNER*) mechanism •Incentives for cattle ranching intensification associated with ecological restoration;
* Strassburg, B. (2012) – IIS Working Paper
1000 Heads in Crop-Livestock System
1000 Heads of Cattle
1000 Heads
Soy
1000 Heads
1000 Heads
1000 Heads
1500 Heads
1500 Heads
Soy
1000 Heads of Cattle
Bef
ore
A
fter
Multiple Uses
In-Farm Mitigation Consortium Compensation
Single Use+Intensification
The “Land Neutral Agricultural Expansion” Mechanism
Take home messages
•Land sparing does not necessarily follow increased productivity; •Quite often the opposite occurs, due to the “rebound effect” •But increased productivity carries the potential for land sparing, under some circumstances
•Associated with increased costs of forest conversion •It is also possible to condition the incentives for increased productivity to activities that ensure land sparing;
Bernardo Baeta Neves Strassburg
Instituto Internacional para Sustentabilidade
Rio de Janeiro, Brasil
Thank You
