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Labour reallocation over the business cycle during transition and post-transition period: the case of Poland
Stanisław Cichocki
Warsaw International Economic Meeting, 03.07.2015
Group for Research in Applied Economics
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Outline
1. Motivation
2. Literature review
3. Data and method
4. Results
5. Conclusions
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Motivation
• Two feautres of labour reallocation during transition:
• Public vs. private sector
• Manufacturing vs. services
• Significant amount of literature for EE and FSU countries but…
• Focuses on early transition period
• Uses yearly data only
• No behavior over the business cyclebusiness cycle
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Literature review
• Theoretical background:
• Aghion and Blanchard (1994)
• Caballero and Hammour (1996, 1998, 2000)
• Empirical studies:
• Multiple countries studies (Bilsen and Konings, 1998; Faggio and Konings, 2003);
• Single country studies (Haltiwanger and Vodopivec, 2002; De Loecker and Konings 2006)
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Literature review
• Main results:
• High job destruction rates in state owned enterprises and privatized firms
• High job creation rates in de novo created firms in private sector
• Job destruction high in manufacturing, job creation high in services
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Data and method
• LFS for period: 1995q1-2012q4
• Types flows
• Flows from public to private sector (AB)
• Flows from manufacturing to service sector (CH)
• Flows from manufacturing in public sector to services in private sector (ABCH)
• Youth employment entry
• Elderly employment exit
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Results: service sector
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Results: manufacturing sector
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Results: public sector
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Results: AB, CH and ABCH flows
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Results: Youth entry and elderly exit
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Results: Services – cyclical patterns
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Results: Manufacturing– cyclical patterns
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Results: Public sector – cyclical patterns
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Results: AB – cyclical patterns
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Results: CH – cyclical patterns
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Results: ABCH – cyclical patterns
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Results: Youth – cyclical patterns
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Results: Elderly– cyclical patterns
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Conclusions
• Two features of labour reallocation in EE and FSU countries
• Job created in service sector, destructed in public sector
• Gross flows in service and manufacturing sector procyclical, weak link between business cycle and public sector employment
• CH flows procyclical
• Weak link between business cycle and AB, ABCH flows
• Youth employment entry and elderly employment exit procyclical
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Thank you for your attention! Author: Stanisław Cichocki e-mail: [email protected]
More about our research on
http://grape.uw.edu.pl
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