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IPCCWGI
IPCC""IPCC.
(Technical Summary)
(CoordinatingLeadAuthors):
Susan Solomon (USA),DaheQin (China), MartinManning (USA,NewZealand)
(LeadAuthors):
Richard B.Alley (USA),TerjeBerntsen (Norway),NathanielL.Bindoff (Australia), Zhenlin Chen (China), AmnatChidthaisong (Thailand), Jonathan M. Gregory (UK), Gabriele C. Hegerl (USA, Germany), Martin Heimann
(Germany,Switzerland),BruceHewitson(SouthAfrica),BrianJ.Hoskins(UK),FortunatJoos(Switzerland),JeanJouzel (France),VladimirKattsov (Russia),UlrikeLohmann (Switzerland),TarohMatsuno (Japan), MarioMolina(USA, Mexico), Neville Nicholls (Australia), Jonathan Overpeck (USA), Graciela Raga (Mexico, Argentina),Venkatachalam Ramaswamy (USA), Jiawen Ren (China), Matilde Rusticucci (Argentina), Richard Somerville(USA),ThomasF.Stocker (Switzerland),RonaldJ.Stouffer (USA),PennyWhetton(Australia),RichardA.Wood(UK), DavidWratt (New Zealand)
(ContributingAuthors):
J.Arblaster(USA,Australia),G.Brasseur(USA,Germany),J.H.Christensen(Denmark),K.L.Denman(Canada),D.W. Fahey (USA), P. Forster (UK), J. Haywood (UK), E. Jansen (Norway), P.D. Jones (UK), R. Knutti(Switzerland),H.LeTreut (France),P.Lemke (Germany), G.Meehl (USA),D.Randall (USA),D.A. Stone (UK,
Canada), K.E. Trenberth (USA), J.Willebrand (Germany), F. Zwiers (Canada)
(ReviewEditors):
Kansri Boonpragob (Thailand), Filippo Giorgi (Italy), Bubu Pateh Jallow (The Gambia)
.
Solomon,S.,D.Qin,M.Manning,R.B.Alley,T.Berntsen,N.L.Bindoff,Z.Chen,A.Chidthaisong,J.M.Gregory,G.C. Hegerl, M.Heimann,B.Hewitson,B.J. Hoskins, F.Joos, J. Jouzel,V. Kattsov, U.Lohmann,T.Matsuno,M.Molina,N.Nicholls,J.Overpeck,G.Raga,V.Ramaswamy,J.Ren,M.Rusticucci,R.Somerville,T.F.Stocker,
P.Whetton,R.A.WoodandD.Wratt,2007:TechnicalSummary.In:ClimateChange2007:ThePhysicalScienceBasis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel onClimateChange [Solomon,S.,D.Qin,M.Manning,Z.Chen,M.Marquis,K.B.Averyt,M.TignorandH.L.Miller(eds.)]. CambridgeUniversityPress,Cambridge,UnitedKingdom and New York,NY, USA.
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TS.1 21
TS.2 21
Box TS.1: 1
22
TS.2.1 23
TS.2.2 28
TS.2.3 ,
30TS.2.4
30
TS.2.5 ,
31
TS.2.6 35
TS.3 35
TS.3.1 : 35
Box TS.2: () 39
TS.3.2 : 41
Box TS.3: 43
TS.3.3 : 46
TS.3.4 50
Box TS.4: 50
Box TS.5: 52
TS.3.5 52
Box TS.6: (Orbital Forcing) 55
TS.4 56
Box TS.7: - 57
TS.4.1 :
, , 58
TS.4.2 60
TS.4.3 , ,
62
TS.4.4 62
TS.4.5 62
TS.5 64
Box TS.8: 64
TS.5.1 65
Box TS.9:
(Committed Climate Change) 66
TS.5.2 21 67
TS.5.3 71
Box TS.10: 72
TS.5.4 74
TS.5.5
76
TS.6 78
TS.6.1 78
TS.6.2 79
TS.6.3 82
TS.6.4 83
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TS.1
IPCC 3 (TAR) 6
.
,
,
,
. IPCC
4 WG I
.
.
.
. , ,
, , -
.
,
2006
.
IPCC WG I
(Summary for Policymakers)
. (Technical Summary)
.
3
.
2 ,
3 (, , )
4
, ,
5
6
{}
.
.
TS.2
, ,
.
.
.
65
.
(energy budget) .
.
,
( )
.
(radiative forcing) .1)
,
1) (radiative forcing)- - ,., . 1750 ,1 m2 (W/m2). , . .
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Box TS.1:1
IPCC.1.6.34.2) Box1(WG I) . (valueuncertainties)' (structuraluncertainties)'..,....(confidence).,.(chaotic).. .(randomerror)(systematicerror).(bias).,
.. 4.(,6),(,).(confidence)(likelihood).
IPCC.
9/10 (chance)
8/10
5/10
2/10
1/10
. 2 (levelofscientificunderstanding) .3,.2.9.22.11.
.
/ (Virtually certain) >99% (Extremely likely) >95% (Very likely) >90%
(Likely) >66% (Morelikely than not) >50% (About as likely asnot) 33~66% (Unlikely)
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. (+)
,
(-) . 2.2
,
.
(4.5 5.4 )
.
.
.
.
TS.2.1
.
250
.
.
8
(108) 4 (10
4
)
.
.
(precursor spe-
cies)
. ,
. (CO2)
,
. (: )
.
CO2, (CH4), (N2O)
(long-lived greenhouse gas; LLGHG)
.
.
,
.
, ,
,
(net removal) (time
scale) .
,
.
.
,
CFCs
.
TS.2.1.1 ,
CO
2
CH
4
65
.
( TS.1 TS.2 ). {2.3, 6.3~6.5, FAQ 7.1}
CO
2
, CH
4,
N
2
O
1750 1
( TS.2
). 40
+1 W/m2
2 6 .
. {2.3, 6.4}
2) IPCC.
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-
( x 1,000 )
TS 1 (D)CO2,CH4, N2O.
(Proxy), . 650,000
, . { 6.3 }
TS 2 () ( ) 2
CO2(a),CH4(b),N2O(c),(d).65
.(d).(age)LawDorne20
DomeC200.CO2,CH4,N2ODorneC
.d Box1600
Law Dome CO2 10 ppm . {6.4}
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TS.1.(globalcarbonbudget).CO2(CtC/yr),
(,CO2(CO2sink)).2004~2005CO2.
-65%,1(7.3 ). NA .
1980 1990 2000~2005
CO2 3.3 0.1 3.2 0.1 4.1 0.1
5.4 0.3 6.4 0.4 7.2 0.3
- -1.8 0.8 -2.2 0.4 -2.2 0.5
- -0.3 0.9 -1.0 0.6 -0.9 0.6
1.4
(0.4~2.3)
1.6
(0.5~2.7)NA
-1.7
(-3.4~-0.2)
-2.6
(-4.3~-0.9)NA
CO
2
280 ppm
2005 379 ppm .
8000 CO2 20 ppm
. ~1
10 ppm
. 1750 CO2
100 ppm . CO2 10
(1995~2005 : 1.9 ppm/yr)
(1960~2005 : 1.4 ppm/yr) . {2.3, 6.4,
6.5}
CO
2
+1.660.17 W m
-2
.
. 1995 2005 10
CO2 CO2 20%
. {2.3, 6.4, 6.5}
CO2
CO2
CO2. 1750 CO2
2/3 1/3
. CO2
45% 30%
. CO2 30
30% .
20%
. {7.3}
CO
2
( TS.3 ).
CO2 3) 1990 6.40.4
GtC/yr 2000~2005 7.20.3 GtC/yr
. CO2
1990 0.5~2.7 GtC/yr, 1.6
Gt/yr4). TS.1 CO2
. {2.3, 6.4, 7.3, FAQ 7.1}
1980 , CO
2
( TS.1
) 50
( TS.1 CO
2
).
CO
2
.
.
1980 1990
1 GtC/yr .
CO2(pCO2)
CO2 .
, . {5.4, 7.3}
, , , , ,
.
3) CO2 , , . 1 GtC 3.67 GtCO2
.
4) 7.3 , 65%
.
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.
.
CO2
,
-
(0)
.
{7.3}
CO2
TS.3.CO2
()5().
51972,1982,1987,1997ENSO
(perturbations) .
5 , 0.15
ppm . CO2
CO2
. { 7.4}
CO
2
()
CO
2
,
( TS.3
).
. CO2
CO2
. -(ElNio-Southern Oscillation:
ENSO) , , ,
CO2
. {7.3}
CO2
. CO2 (
) .
. ( )
.
TS.5.4 . {7.3}
2005 1774 ppb,
.
1 580 ppb 730 ppb
2 1000 ppb
8 .
1970 1980
1%/yr , 1990
, 1999~2005 6
0 .
.
, (OH)
. 3
( 14CO)
. 1993
. (2.3, 7.4, FAQ
7.1}
+0.48 0.05 W/m
2
.
CO2
. {2.3}
,
.
.
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. , ,
, , ,
.
, 65
( TS.1), 1750
,
.
{2.3, 6.4, 7.4}
15
,
. 1996 2001
.
.
. {7.4}
2005 N
2
O 319 ppb,
18 . N
2
O
1 0.8 ppb .
N2O
11,500 10 ppb .
{2.3, 6.4, 6.5}
N
2
O +0.16
0.02 W m
-2
,
,
. N2O 40%
. {2.3, 7.4}
TS.2.1.3 (halocarbon),,
CFCs HCFCs(hydrochlorofluorocarbons)
.
, CFC-11 CFC-113
. 3
(firn core)
. CFCs HCFCs
(in situ) . {2.3}
2005
+0.32 0.03 W m
-2
, CFC-12 3
.
12%
. {2.3}
(hydrofluo-
rocarbons: HFCs), (perfluorocarbons: PFCs),
(SF
6
) .
2005 +0.017 W m-2
. {2.3}
, ,
.
,
, (,
), .
. (in-situ meas-
urements)
.
, 20
. {7.4}
+0.35[+0.25~+0.65]
W m
-2
, .
3
. ,
.
3
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. {2.3, 7.4}
.
. -
, (NOx)
(peroxyacetylnitrate)
,
. 1988
. 2003
. {Box
7.4}
. 3
-0.050.10 W m
-2
, . 1980
1990
.
1980 4%
,
. ,
.
{2.3}
.
.
1% .
. {2.5}
,
+0.070.05 W m
-2
.
.
.
. {2.3}
TS.2.2
, 3
. 3
.
.
-0.50.4 W m
-2
,
(medium-low) .
, .
,
. ,
, ,
. , ,
( TS.4 )
.
, 3
.
,
-0.40.2 W m-2
,
-0.050.05 W m-2
, +0.20.15 W m-2
,
+0.030.12 W m-2
, -0.10.1 W
m-2
, -0.10.2 W m-2
.
2
1980~2000
. {2.4, 6.6}
,
3
.
0
. .
.
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2001 1 ~ 3
2001 8 ~ 10
TS.4.()20011~3(+
).()20018~10.
. ( 2.4.2 ). { 2.11}
. {2.4}
Water cloud
(indirect cloud albedo
effect) (3 1
(first indirect effect) ).
-0.7 [-0.3~-1.8] W m
-2
. 3 ,
.
-
.
. 3
, ,
. 3
.
{2.4, 7.5, 9.2}
(cloud
lifetime effect), (semi-direct effect),
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- (aerosol-icecloud interaction)
.
. {2.4, 7.5}
TS.2.3,
+0.01 [+0.003 ~+0.03] W m
-2
, .
3
,
.
.
. {2.6}
0.20.2 W m
-2
. 3
. - .
.
+0.10.1 W m
-2
.3
,
.
(mapping) ,
(parameter) ,
.
.
.
. {2.5}
.
(, , ) , , ,
.
.
(
) , .
{2.5, 7.2, 9.3, Box 11.4}
. {2.5}
TS.2.4
28
.
0.08
11 .
. (overlapping)
.
.
(
) (
). {2.7}
1750
+0.12 [+0.06~+0.3] W/m
2
3 ,
.
1610 ( : Maunder Minimum)
,
(Proxy)
(solar magnetic flux)
,
,
.
3
,
. {2.7, 6.6}
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.
(
)
. ,
,
1991 1994
.
. {2.7}
.
.
/
,
.
1991
. 1991
,
. {2.7, 6.4, 6.6, 9.2}
TS.2.5 ,
3 ,
1750
+1.6 [+0.6~+2.4] W m
-2
(+)
. 3 ,
.
TS.5
.
. +0.6~+2.4 W m-2
+
.
+2.630.26 W m-2
,
.
, ,
,
.
.
. (:
, ,
)
(:
) . {2.7, 2.9}
(Global Warming Potential; GWP)
( TS.2 ).
(: 100)
, .
. {2.10}
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(RF)
90
(W m
-2
)
RF
RF
W m
-2
)
(W m
-2
)
~
~
~
~
~
~
TS.5.(a) 2005(RF)90% . RF
,,(LOSU)2.9
.,N2O,()..
.2.9
. . .
.(b)(a)
..(-)
. {2.9.1, 2.9.2; 2.20}
,
.
.
. -
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()
(Wm-2ppb-1)
SAR(100)
20 100 500
CO2 a b
1.4x10-5
1 1 1 1
c
CH4 12c
3.7x10-4
21 72 25 7.6
N2O 114 3.03x10-3
310 289 298 153
CFC-11 CCl3F 45 0.25 3,800 6,730 4,750 1,620
CFC-12 CCl2F2 100 0.32 8,100 11,000 10,900 5,200
CFC-13 CClF3 640 0.25 10,800 14,400 16,400
CFC-113 CCl2FCClF2 85 0.3 4,800 6,540 6,130 2,700
CFC-114 CClF2CClF2 300 0.31 8,040 10,000 8,730
CFC-115 CClF2CF3 1,700 0.18 5,310 7,370 9,990
Halon-1301 CBrF3 65 0.32 5,400 8,480 7,140 2,760Halon-1211 CBrClF2 16 0.3 4,750 1,890 575
Halon-2402 CBrF2CBrF2 20 0.33 3,680 1,640 503
CCl4 26 0.13 1,400 2,700 1,400 435
CH3Br 0.7 0.01 17 5 1
CH3CCl3 5 0.06 506 146 45
HCFC-22 CHClF2 12 0.2 1,500 5,160 1,810 549
HCFC-123 CHCl2CF3 1.3 0.14 90 273 77 24
HCFC-124 CHClFCF3 5.8 0.22 470 2,070 609 185
HCFC-141b CH3CCl2F 9.3 0.14 2,250 725 220
HCFC-142b CH3CClF2 17.9 0.2 1,800 5,490 2,310 705
HCFC-225ca CHCl2CF2CF3 1.9 0.2 429 122 37
HCFC-225cb CHClFCF2CClF2 5.8 0.32 2,030 595 181
HFC)
HFC-23 CHF3 270 0.19 11,700 12,000 14,800 12,200
HFC-32 CH2F2 4.9 0.11 650 2,330 675 205
HFC-125 CHF2CF3 29 0.23 2,800 6,350 3,500 1,100
HFC-134a CH2FCF3 14 0.16 1,300 3,830 1,430 435
HFC-143a CH3CF3 52 0.13 3,800 5,890 4,470 1,590
HFC-152a CH3CHF2 1.4 0.09 140 437 124 38
HFC-227ea CF3CHFCF3 34.2 0.26 2,900 5,310 3,220 1,040
HFC-236fa CF3CH2CF3 240 0.28 6,300 8,100 9,810 7,660
HFC-245fa CHF2CH2CF3 7.6 0.28 3,380 1030 314
HFC-365mfc CH3CF2CH2CF3 8.6 0.21 2,520 794 241
HFC-43-10mee CF3CHFCHFCF2CF3 15.9 0.4 1,300 4,140 1,640 500
PFC)
SF6 3,200 0.52 23,900 16,300 22,800 32,600
NF3 740 0.21 12,300 17,200 20,700
PFC-14 CF4 50,000 0.10 6,500 5,210 7,390 11,200
PFC-116 C2F6 10,000 0.26 9,200 8,630 12,200 18,200
TS.2.CO2 , ( ) (GWP) { 2.14}
.
(thermal
inertia) . {2.8, 9.2}
.
~
(Northern Annular Mode; NAM)
(North Atlantic Oscillation; NAO)
(3.1 Box TS.2 ).
,
,
. {2.8, 7.5, 9.2}
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() (Wm-2ppb-1)
SAR(100)
20 100 500
PFC-218 C3F8 2,600 0.26 7,000 6,310 8,830 12,500
PFC-318 c-C4F8 3,200 0.32 8,700 7,310 10,300 14,700
PFC-3-1-10 C4F10 2,600 0.33 7,000 6,330 8,860 12,500
PFC-4-1-12 C5F12 4,100 0.41 6,510 9,160 13,300
PFC-5-1-14 C6F14 3,200 0.49 7,400 6,600 9,300 13,300
PFC-9-1-18 C10F18 >1,000d
0.56 >5,500 >7,500 >9,500
SF5CF3 800 0.57 13,200 17,700 21,200
Fluorinated ethers)
HFE-125 CHF2OCF3 136 0.44 13,800 14,900 8,490
HFE-134 CHF2OCHF2 26 0.45 12,200 6,320 1,960
HFE-143a CH3OCF3 4.3 0.27 2,630 756 230
HCFE-235da2 CHF2OCHClCF3 2.6 0.38 1,230 350 106
HFE-245cb2 CH3OCF2CHF2 5.1 0.32 2,440 708 215
HFE-245fa2 CHF2OCH2CF3 4.9 0.31 2,280 659 200
HFE-254cb2 CH3OCF2CHF2 2.6 0.28 1,260 359 109
HFE-347mcc3 CH3OCF2CF2CF3 5.2 0.34 1,980 575 175
HFE-347pcf2 CHF2CF2OCH2CF3 7.1 0.25 1,900 580 175
HFE-356pcc3 CH3OCF2CF2CHF2 0.33 0.93 386 110 33
HFE-449sl
(HFE-7100) C4F9OCH3 3.8 0.31 1,040 297 90HFE-569sf2(HFE-7200)
C4F9OC2H5 0.77 0.3 207 59 18
HFE-43-10pccc124(H-Galden 1040x)
CHF2OCF2OC2F4OCHF2 6.3 1.37 6,320 1,870 569
HFE-236ca12(HG-10)
CHF2OCF2OCHF2 12.1 0.66 8,000 2,800 860
HFE-338pcc13(HG-01)
CHF2OCF2CF2OCHF2 6.2 0.87 5,100 1,500 460
Perfluoropolyethers)
PFPMIE CF3OCF(CF3)CF2OCF2OCF3 800 0.65 7,620 10,300 12,400
-
CH3OCH3 0.015 0.02 1 1
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, , -
.
.
. {2.9}
TS.2.6
.
,
.
.
. (
(surface forcing)')
,
.
.
- ,
. {2.9, 7.2, 7.5, 9.5}
TS.3
4 , ,
,
, ,
.
1850 .
.
. , ( )
(proxy) .
TS.3.1:
4 , / ,
, , ,
. 3 ,
, ,
, , , ,
. (extreme
climate) ,
4 , , , ( )
. {3.2~3.4, 3.8}
3 , ,
.
,
, ,
.
(atmospheric teleconnections)
. (climate anomaly)
.
, , (preferred
blocking anticyclone),
. {3.53.7}
TS.3.1.1
2005 1998 1850
. 1998
1997~1998
2005 .
12(1995~2006) 11 - 1996 -
1850 . {3.2}
-
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1950
. 100 (1906~2005) 0.740.18
3 (1901~2000) 100
0.60.2 . 1850~1899
2001~2005
0.760.19. 50
(0.130.03) 100
. 3
.
, (SST)
( TS.6 ) {3.2}
,
( 10
0.006 , 0).
.
.
. ,
, (Diurnal Temperature Range: DTR)
. {3.2}
. 3
1950~1993 0.1/10
. ,
1979 2004 ,
.
. {3.2}
, 1958~2005
1979~2005
,
. 3
( TS.7).
.
. MSU (Microwave Sounding
Unit) AMSU (Advanced Microwave Sounding Unit)
1979
,
. 3
, , ,
( )
. MSU 2
. MSU
0.12 ~ 0.19/10
1979
0.16 ~ 0.18/10.
. {3.4}
,
, 1979 0.3
~ 0.6/10 ( TS.7 )
.
(1958 )
. 1979
10 .
.
. {3.4}
TS.3.1.2 ,
.
, 20
(10 0.27
vs 0.13). {3.2}
30
,
. (12~2)
(3~5) . 100
. .
1925 1945 .
-
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. {3.2}
1961
-1990
()
(10)
10 5-95
() (/10)
TS.6.()1979~2005()(,).
.() (). 1961~1990
(), (). 25(),50(), 100(), 150()
. ()10 ( 3.A ) 90% . 1850~1899 2001~2005 0.760.19. {FAQ 3.1, 1}
.
, ,
. 1979
1990
,
.
,
, ,
.
1970
1990
.
. {3.2, 3.5}
-
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.
NAO(Box TS.2
) .
(Annular Modes)', NAM(Northern
Annular Modes) SAM(Southern Annular Modes)
.
.
NAO NAM
.
. , 1960
SAM
,
. -
.
ENSO ENSO .
1976~1977 10 (Pacific
Decadal Oscillation; PDO)
ENSO ,
. , ENSO -
(Pacific-North America)
.
. 20
(1900~1924; 1947~1976)
(1925~1946; 1977~2003). {3.2, 3.5, 3.6}
.
,
, (
10%) ,
( 10%)
(Box TS.5).
(Cold night) ,
( 76%) 1951~2003
. {3.8}
20 .
2003
. (6~8)
1780 (
1807 1.4 ).
2003
.
.
. {3.8, 3.9}
~
TS.7. (d), (c), ~ (b),(a)1979~1997.
7.
. { 3.17}
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NAO NAM
, .
Box. TS.2.1 . NAO NAM .
.
,
.
Box TS.2: ()
,
(index)
..
- (ENSO):
, 2~ 7 . (Tahiti)
(Darwin)
SST . ENSO
(teleconnection).
(North Atlantic Oscillation; NAO):
(Azores) ,
.
,,
(Box TS.2, 1)
(Northern Annular Mode; NAM):
.
.
(Southern Annular Mode; SAM):
. NAMSAM
.
-(Pacific-NorthAmerican;PNA):
.
10(PacificDecadal Oscillation; PDO):SST,(NorthPacific Index;NPI).
.
.20
.(TS.4, Box TS.7
), . {3.6, 8.4}
, , ,
. {3.8}
TS.3.1.3 :,,,
( TS.8).
1976
.
1988 2004 10 1.2
0.3%(95% ) .
SST ,
.
. {3.4}
.
, .
20
(
TS.8).
, 3 .
{3.4}
ENSO . DTR
( )
.
. 1980 1990
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( ENSO
)
,
. {3.4}
(global dimming)'
1990 .
1970 1990
(urban bias) .
1990 .
a) , : 1988-2004
( )
1.2 /10
17/10
T2~T12()
%/10
TS.8. (a)()1988~2004
,(b)
, (c) (80N ~ 80S)
. 1982~2004 ()
. (/10).
{3.4, 3.203.21}
.
( )
. {3.4}
1990 2005
( TS.9).
, ,
. , , ,
.
, .
.5) {3.3}
.
,
1950 (95 )
. (50 1)
( TS.10
). {3.8}
1970
SST .
.
1970
.
.
1970
.
SST
( TS.11 ).
ENSO 10 .
. 1995
2005 9 (1981~2000 )
. {3.8}
5)TAR(chapter) 11.
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%/100
%/10
1901~2005
1979~2005
(mm)
TS.9.()1901~2005(%/100)1979~2005(%/10)
.
. % 1961~1990
. () 1961~1990
1990~2005.
10(3.A
). {3.3, 3.12 3.13}
1970
,
.
.6)
, .
TS.3.2:
10%
. 7%
. 49% .
. 90%
.
. (snow cover)
,
.
. {4.1}
75% .
, (mountain snowpack),
,
.
. 3
,
, , ,
,
,
.
.
1961
1993 . {4.1}
6) (Palmer Drought Severity Index; PDSI) .
PDSI , , , .
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1951~2003 ( /10)
TS.10.() 1951~2003 (,95 ) (%/10).
. () 1961~1990 (%).
% (22.5%) % . 10 ( 3.A ). { 3.39}
1961~
1990
TS.11. (10N ~ 20N) SST 1961~1990 ().{ 3.33}
. 1966 2005
11 12
1980 5%
( TS.12). ,
(proxies)
40
. 4
40~60N
. {4.2}
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Box TS.3:
(icesheet).
..
.
.,,
.
. {4.6}
(icestream)()()
.
. {4.6}
.,
.
.(oceancavity).
,1 10m/yr .
. {4.6}
,,.7m57m.
.1
.
,.,
1.
,,
. {4.6, 6.4}
TAR,(accumulation)(ablation)
.
.. {8.2}
(mountain snow water equivalent)
(snow pack)
.
.
.
(mountain snow) 1950
75% .
.
( )
. {4.2}
10
.
, , ,
,
. 1980
3 .
, , ,
.
0.04 m/yr 0.02 m/yr
. {4.7}
20
7 , 15
. 20
0.3 m . 1956 1990
0.2 m . {4.7}
150
, 100
5.81.9 , 100
6.51.4 .
,
. {4.3}
1978 2.70.6 ( TS.13
).
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7.42.4%/10.
1970
.
.
,
(
).
. {4.4}
3~4
10
6
(km
2
)
3~4
(1988~2004) ~ (1967~1987)
TS.12. () 3~4 .
(snow cover index)(1972 )
(1972 ) . 10
(3.A ), 5~95%
.()(1967~1987)(1988~2004)
3~4.
. CRU(Climatic
Research Unit) CRUTEM2v 1967~2004
3~405.0
5. { 4.2, 4.3}
20
.
(
) 1961~2003 (Sea
Level Equivalent: SLE) 0.500.18 mm/yr,
1991~2003 0.770.22 mm/yr . 20
1970
. {4.5}
(1979~2005)
(1979~2005)
(1979~2005)
TS.13.1979~2005 (a) , (b)
,(c).
, 10 ( 3.A
),.(a)-6020 103
km2/yr -7.4%/10 . (b)
337.4103 km2/yr ( -2.7%/10), 95%
.(c)5.69.2103 km2/yr
.
{ 4.8 4.9}
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TS.14.(;1989~2005)(;1992~2005).,
./.J,K,H,SEJakobshavn(J),
Kangerdlugssuaq(K),Helheim(H),(SE),vs.KH
Gt/yr. . 30 cm
30cm . { 4.17 4.19 }
, ,
.
, ,
. (
km km )
.
.
2002 Larsen B Ice Shelf
.
.
(Larsen B )
.
{4.6}
10
.
1993 2003
. 10
.
. ,
( TS. 14 ).
1993 2003 -50~-100 Gt/yr(
+0.14~+0.28 mm/yr )
, 2005
.
. 1961~2003
25 Gt/yr 60
Gt/yr(-0.07 ~+0.17 mm/ yr SLE).
1961~2003 100 Gt/yr 200
Gt/yr(-0.27~+0.56 mm/yr SLE), 1993~2003
+50~-200 Gt/yr(-0.14~+0.55 mm/yr SLE)
.
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, , ,
. {4.6, 4.8}
TS.3.3:
.
, ,
. 1,000
,
( TS.15 ).
. ~1
. SST
.
. CO2
. {5.1, 7.3}
.
. (:
, , , )
,
.
(Box TS.4 ). {5.5}
,
- (signal-to-noise ratio)
. 3 ,
,
, ,
(water mass) ,
. {5.5}
TS.15.1961~20031993~2003
. 1961~2003,
1993~2003.
(+) , ,
,
,
.90%.
(heatgain).
. { 5.4}
TS.3.3.1
1955
80
. 790
( TS. 16).
, .
, 10
.
( ) 10
. 1961~2003 0~3,000
m 14.1x102
J 0.2
W/m2( ) .
1993~2003 0~700 m
0.50.18 W/m2.
1961~2003 1993~2003
2004 2005 2003
. {5.1~5.3}
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(0~700M)
(10
22
J)
TS.16.0~700m(1022J).3
.
1961~1990,
1993~2003.
90%.
90%.{
5.1}
700 m
. 45N
.
(deep overturning circulation cell)
, , (Atlantic
Ocean Basin) .
.
.
( /)
. ,
10 ,
. , ,
50 .
ENSO , PDO
. {5.2, 5.3}
10
. {5.3}
TS.3.3.2
1750
pH 0.1 .
7)
CO2 CO2 .
CO2 CO2
pH (,
). pH
.
20 pH
10 0.02 pH
. pH
, (aragonite,
) .
pH CO2
CO2
. {5.4, 7.3}
( 100~1000 m)
1975~1995 .
. {5.4}
( TS.17
),
.
.
(freshening) ,
, , ,
.
500 m
. ,
, ,
. {5.2}
7) (acidity) pH . pH = -log(H+). pH 1 H+ 10.
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TS.3.3.3
1961~2003 ,
(Tide gauge)
1.80.5 mm/yr ( TS. 18 ).
5~95% .
(1955~1998)
(m)
TS.17. ( )
(1955~1998). 0.01/10.
0.05/10, (0) .
0.005/10 , -0.005/10
. { 5.5}
0.420.12 mm/yr 10
. , ,
0.70.5 mm/yr ( TS.3 ).
40
1.10.5 mm/yr ,
(TAR ). 1961~2003
. {4.8, 5.5}
TOPEX/Poseidon 1993~2003
3.10.7
mm/yr.
(1.60.5
mm/yr) (1.20.4
mm/yr) 2.80.7 mm/yr
.
( )
. 1961~2003
1993~2003 10
. 1993~2003
1950
. {5.5, 9.5}
, 19
~20
.
1870
1870~2000
.
2,000
0.0~0.2 mm/yr .
(proxy)
, AD 1~1900
0.25 m .
19
~20 . {5.5}
mm
TS.18..1870
,1950,
1992 1961~1990
. 90%
. { 5.13}
1993
.
. 1992
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(mm/yr)
1961 ~ 2003 1993 ~ 2003
0.42 0.12 0.5 0.2 1.6 0.5 .5 0.7
0.50 0.18 0.5 0.2 0.77 0.22 0.7 0.3
0.05 0.12a 0.21 0.07
a
0.14 0.41a 0.21 0.35
a
1.1 0.5 1.2 0.5 2.8 0.7 2.6 0.8
1.8 0.5
()
3.1 0.7
()
( - ) 0.7 0.7 0.3 1.0
a (9.5)
TS.3. . 9.5 10.A. 1993~2003
40 . {5.3 9.2 }
( TS.19 ). 10
,
. , ENSO NAO
- . 1992
50
10
. {5.5}
1975
.
20
.
.
.
ENSO, NAO
. {5.5}
Kwajalein Atoll
(1993~2003)
(mm)
TS.19.() Kwajalein(844 N, 16744E) 1950~2000
(mm). (
),,
. 1 6 ,
.()TOPEX/Poseidon
1993~2003
(mm/yr) . { 5.15 5.18}
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Box TS.4:
(),(),
...20
.1990.
,.
,,,.
NAO
.
,.
,100
..
.
.,,.
100m.
.100.
.
.
.,
.
.
.
,
.,(stormsurge)'
.
. {5.5}
TS.3.4
3.4 , ,
.
.
.
. {3.9}
, ,
. {3.2, 3.9, 4.4~4.8, 5.2,
5.5}
SST .
(thermal in-
ertia)
. {3.2}
.
{3.2, 3.8}
1979
.
,
(likely).
{3.4, 9.4}
.
. , , ,
, ,
. {3.2, 3.9,4.24.5, 4.7}
1993
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a20C(1960)
D
SRESb 21
(warmer days and nights)
, (colder
days and nights)
c
e
* e
,
d
()e
* e
(warm spell)/:
(
)
1970
*
1970
( )
f
h
:a 3.7.b SRES IPCCSpecial Report on EmissionScenarios (IPCC ). SRES Box.
c ( 10%)d ( 10%)e /f . 1%.
g {5.5.2.6}. . {9.5.2}
h 2100 {10.6}. .
TS.4. 20,.D* .
,
.
{3.8, 5.5, 9.7, 11.2-11.9; 3.7, 3.8, 9.4}
.
1993~2003 3.10.7
mm/yr .
, ,
.
.
1961~2003
. {5.5, 3.9}
,
.
,
.
,
,
.
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Box TS.5. 1.
.
Box TS.5:
(:2003
, 2005 7(Mumbai)
.,
.
,150
,
.
.
.
.
(,24)
. (extreme).
(probabilitydistribution function;PDF), (normal)'
(Gaussian)'((bellcurve)').BoxTS.51PDF,
()
.(:)(
). .
IPCC2(SAR).3
,
.3,,
(:).
,()PDF
.3,
(TS.4).(:),.(:
).
.,
.
,
. {3.3,
3.4, 3.9, 5.2}
.
.
.
,
.
,
. ,
,
. SST
. , 1970
. ,
,
. {3.3,
3.8, 9.5}
TS.3.5
,
,
, ,
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.
.
(, , , )
()
.
.
,
, ,
. {6.2}
20 500
50
,
1300
.
(
. TS.20 ). ,
, (growth
band) (proxy)
,
.
1
. 3
, ,
, , ,
.
1850
.
. {6.6,
6.7}
TAR (proxy),
,
TAR
. 12~14 17~19
.
(likely). ,
17
.
11 TAR
TAR
. {6.6]
1 CO
2
.
(
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(, 1961~1990)
Proxy Record Locations: AD 1000
Proxy Record Locations: AD 1500
TS.20. () 1300 . 12 (proxy) ( )
.()AD1000AD1500(proxy)
(:, :, :/, : ).
6.1 6.10 , 6 . {6.10 6.11}
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(Milankovitch Cycle)
BoxTS.6,1.(Milankovitchcycle).
T'(), E', P
(precession),
. {FAQ 6.1, 1}
Box TS.6: (Orbital Forcing)
((isolation)')
.
.
{6.4}
(precession) 19,000 ~
23,000(quasi-periodicity)1
.,
.
, 60W/m2
(Box TS.6, 1). ()
22 24.5 ,
41,000.
(
). {6.4}
400,000100,000.
.
.400,000100,000
(Box TS.6, 1). {6.4}
(Milankovitch) .
,1.,,,
..
. ,,
. {6.4}
.
, 30,000
. {6.4, FAQ 6.1}
-
.
. 16
,
.
. 8,000
. {6.4}
. Last Glacial Maximum(LGM; dir 21,000
) (6,000 )
(random variability)
,
(Box TS.6).
.
LGM
,
. ,
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TS.21.125()
().(proxy).()
() () (proxy) .()
.3 .
Renland(R),(N),(S,GRIP,GISP2),CampCentury(C)
()Devon(De)Agassiz(A).Dye-3LIG(D,).{ 6.6}
,
(
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Box TS.7:-
-(Atmosphere-OceanGeneralCirculationModel; AOGCM),
.21
,.TAR
. {8.1}
. . {8.1}
. .
.
.,
,.,
.
. 110. {FAQ1.2, 9.4, 11.1}
Model formulation). AOGCM(:,,
).(:)
(process).AOGCMcontrolintegration
. {8.2, 8.3}
..
,,.(
)()
.()
.. . (ocean water mass
structure),,.
. . {8.3, 8.5, 8.6}
. (NAM/SAM,PNA,PDO)
.ENSO-
(Madden-Julian Oscillation).{8.4}
. .,
21
.20(:,
,,).
LGM.
.
..{6.4,
6.5, 8.1, 9.39.5}
. ()
..
,
. [8.4}
. ,
()... {8.1, 9.6, 10.5}
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.
(: )
.
.
(Box TS.7).
.
20 TAR
, .
.
,
, , ,
. {9.1}
TS.4.1 :,,
, , ,
. {3.2, 3.4, 9.4}
,
TAR .
,
10
.
.
. (Black Carbon Aerosol)
.
.
,
.
. ,
,
(proxy)
(
TS.22 Box TS.7) {8.2~8.4 m8.6, 9.2~9.4}
(
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TS.22. :. .()1906~2005101901~195010
10.(spatialcoverage)50%(-).
5 19 5~95%. 9.4,
FAQ 9.2, 8.1, 9 . {FAQ 9.2, 1}
m
. {5.2, 9.5}
.
.
. {3.3, 4.4, 8.2, 8.3, 9.5}
20
,
10 .
1961~2003
.
( TS.3 ). 1961~2003 1993~2003
,
.
1950 10
.
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TS.23. (a) 1901~1950
( )
,
.
,
.
.(b)
(a)
.
,
. . {
9.5}
1993~2003
.
10
. , 10
20 .
10
. 1961~2003
10
1993~2003
. {5.5, 9.5}
TS.4.2
,
.3
.
. {3.2, 3.4, 9.4}
20
. . ()
. (Coupled
Climate Model) 6
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12~1
(hPa/50)
(m/sec, 50)
TS.24.1955~20051012~1.(),.(),.8,
.(Geostrophic wind)
,,.9
, 8.1 . { 9.16}
3 .
20
( )
. {9.4}
50
.
.
, ( )
. ,
.
.
{8.3, 9.4}
. ,
,
. ,
2003
. {9.4}
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TS.4.3 ,,
, (Annular
Mode: AM) ,
,
( TS.24 )
.
(Northern Annular Mode : NAM)
.
(Southern
Annular Mode : SAM)
.
.
,
. 20
.
{3.6, 9.5, 10.3}
. 20
. 20
.
.
, ,
SST
.
(SST)
SST
. SST
SST
. {3.3, 9.5, 10.3, 11.2}
TS.4.4
1950 7
.
10
.
( 20
) (:
) . ,
20 .
(proxy)
.
{6.6, 9.3}
TS.4.5
(equilibrium cli-
mate sensitivity)
8)
3
, 30
. - CO2
( 550 ppm) 2
- 3
1.5~4.5 .
. 4
-(AOGCM) , 150
(, , )
, (
TS.25 )
. 1
LGM(Last Glacial Maximum)
.
8).
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()
TS.25.20(), (),proxydata(),-(AOGCM:)
. IPCC 4 (Box TS.1 ) .
{Box 10.2, 1 2}
. {8.1, 8.6, 9.6, Box 10.2}
,
2~4.5
3. 1.5
. 4.5
.
4.5
.
6 .
(positive)
20
.
.
95
. {Box 10.2}
,
.
,
.
(GCM)
- (coupled
water vapor-lapse rate feedback)9)
. , 1 1
W/m2
50% . GCM
10
,
. ( )
.
.
.
. {3.4, 8.6, 9.3, 9.4, 9.6, 10.2, Box 10.2}
, CO
2
9) .
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Box TS.8:
(SimpleClimateModel;SCM)
. SCM-,,,
(representation).. {8.8, 10.5}
ESMICs(EarthSystemModels of IntermediateComplexity),,
.
,
.SCMEMIC
.
,
.EMIC,
. {8.8, 10.5, 10.7}
AOGCM.,,
. 3(BoxTS.7), 20
.,(waveprocess)
,(watermass).AOGCM.AOGCM
.,AOGCMAOGCM
(). {8.2}
( TS.5 ).
.
. AOGCM
CO2 .
,
.
{10.7}
(transient climate change)
3
. (CO
2
1 /yr 2
20
) .
(parameter)
, 1
3 .
.
.
,
. {8.3, 8.6, 9.4, 9.6,
10.5}
TS.5.CO2-eq
():,
. ( )
CO2-eq(ppm)
()
350 1.0 0.5 0.61.4
450 2.1 1.0 1.43.1
550 2.9 1.5 1.94.4
650 3.6 1.8 2.45.5
750 4.3 2.1 2.86.4
1000 5.5 2.8 3.78.3
1200 6.3 3.1 4.29.4
TS.5
3 ,
.
. 10
14 AOGCM 23
.
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,
.
(:
)
.
,
,
.
{8.1, 8.3, 9.4, 9.5, 10.1}
3 ,
.
AOGCM
. ,
, ,
.
.
.
-
. {8.6, 9.6, 10.1, 10.3,
10.5}
SRES
(Marker)
. TAR 3
. ,
.
. ,
.
.
2000 ,
CO2 2 4 , 2001~2100
SRES ,
2100 ,
. SRES
. 1
. {10.1,
10.3}
EMICs(Earth System Models of Intermediate
Complexity)
AOGCM .
. {10.1}
TS.5.1
,
(Committed warming: Box TS.9
) .
,
. {10.3, 10.7}
IPCC
. FAR SAR 1990 ~ 2005
0.3/10 0.15/10
.10) 2
1
. TAR SAR .
0.2/10 (
TS.26) .
10) IPCC First Assessment Report,PolicymakersSummary,Second Assessment Report,TechnicalSummary18.
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Box TS.9:(Committed Climate Change)
,,
. (committedwarming)'.
,
. {FAQ 10.3}
.,
..
,.
.. {10. 7}
TS.26..(TS.6)(
),10.IPCCFAR()SAR(),FAR.199010.
,,SRESB1,A1B,A2(TS.32),
. 2000 ,
. { 1.1 10.4}
. {1.2, 3.2}
2000 (Box
TS.9 )
20 0.1/10
. SRES
2 (0.2
/10) .
SRES
. SRES
. 2050
SRES
(1980~1999
1.3~1.7), 1/4
.
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(1980~1999 2090~2099,)a
(1980~1999 2090~2099,m)
()
2000
b
0.6 0.3 - 0.9 NA
B1 1.8 1.1 - 2.9 0.18 - 0.38
A1T 2.4 1.4 - 3.8 0.20 - 0.45
B2 2.4 1.4 - 3.8 0.20 - 0.43
A1B 2.8 1.7 - 4.4 0.21 - 0.48
A2 3.4 2.0 - 5.4 0.23 - 0.51
A1FI 4.0 2.4 - 6.4 0.26 - 0.59
:a 1 , EMIC, AOGCM .
b 2000 AOGCM .
TS.6. 21 . {10.5, 10.6, 10.7}
{10.3, 10.5, 10.7}
. AOGCM SRES A1B
2000~2020 1.30.7
mm/yr , A2 B1
.
1993~2003 , 1.60.6 mm/yr
.
(2000 )
(2000 2000
)
. {10.6, 10.7}
TS.5.221
21
.
TS.5.3 .
21 (2090~2099)
,
. 6 SRES
2000
1980~1999
TS.6 .
AOGCM, ,
( TS.27 ).
3 .
{10.5}
3
-
TAR .
CO2
.
A2 , CO2 2100
1 . {7.3,
10.5}
6 SRES 1980~1999
21 (2090~2099)
(spread)
5~95 TS.6 .
70~75% .
AOGCM
3 .
3
. B1 SRES 21
1961~2003
(1.80.5 mm/yr) .
,
0.02 m
0.15 m.
.
. {10.6, 10.7}
, 2090~2099
TAR 10 , TAR
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2090~2099
AOGCMs 5~95 (normal fit)
AOGCM
AOGCM , MAGICC
AOGCMs
MAGICC ,
MAGICC (PU),
MAGICC , /
BERN2.5CC
BERN2.5CC ,
BERN2.5CC , /
Wigley 2001
Stott 2002/2006
Knutti 2003
Furrer 2007
Harris 2006
C4MIP
AOGCM
AOGCM +60 , -40
( )
m
TS.27. () 6SRES 1980~1999 2090~2099
. AOGCM , -40% ~ +60% . A2
C4MIP(CoupledCarbonCycleClimate Model IntercomparisonProject) (
),EMIC().(10.29).()6SRES 2090~2099(1980~1999) .
(spread)5~95% , . AOGCM
(10.A).
. . { 10.29 10.33}
2100
2090~2099 .
TAR
,
, 1.65
5~95% TAR
2 . TAR
TAR
. {10.6, 10.7}
21
. , , 21
.
. 21
.
.
,
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()
TS.28.1980~1999 21 . SRES B1(),A1B(),A2() AOGCM2020~202910() 2090~2099 10()()
. AOGCM EMIC
.SRES.
. { 10.8 10.28 }
. 21
.
.
,
.
.
,
0.1~0.2 m .
. {4.6, 10.6}
TAR ,
( TS.28 ).
(Box
TS.7).
.
{8.3~8.5, 10.3, 11.2~11.9}
21
.
,
.
. {10.3,
11.2~11.9}
.
(MOC)
.
,
.
.
.
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( TS.28 ) {10.3}
21 MOC
. SRES A1B ,
2100 25 (0~
50 ).
. MOC
,
.
Labrador Sea Water
.
AOGCM MOC
. , MOC
21
. MOC
. {8.7, 10.3}
21
. 2070~2099
A1B , AOGCM
0.08 m ,
25%.
.
TAR
.
, ,
.{10.6}
TAR
. TAR
.
.
(: )
. 3
14
(12~2 6~8)
. (extreme)
20 95
. 21
90%
, 40% .
, ,
,
. 8 ,
20
,
. {8.5, 10.3}
(cold air out-
break) 50~100 .
9
20 (frost) 21
.
. {10.3, FAQ 10.1}
. (thaw
depth)
. {10.3}
(SRES A1B, A2, B1)
, 1
21
.
.
, A2 21
.
. -
,
,
. ,
.
21
. {8.6, 10.3, Box 10.1}
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BoxTS.10:(Downscaling)
AOGCM , , nested) empirical
downscaling technique) . AOGCM.
,.
. {11.10}
.(subpolarregion)
,.
,.
ENSO,NAO,(blocking),(thermohalinecirculation),.
,.
.
. {Box 11.1, 11.2~11.9}
,
(Hadley Circulation)
(NAM/NAO SAM)
(Box TS.2 ).
NAM/NAO SAM
. SAM
, .
,
, ,
,
.
.
. {3.6, 10.3}
,
SST ,
.
ENSO
.
100
. {10.3}
100 km~20 km
(
)
. ,
,
,
,
,
.
. 1970
. {10.3, 8.5, 3.8}
TAR ,
.
, (A1B
2100 20%)
. 50
,
.
(20~40)
.
( TS.30
). {8.3, 10.3, 11.2-11.9}
(Signal)
. {10.3, 11.1}
,
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20
(A1B )
TS.29.1906~2005:10()2001~2050.1901~1950
.,20
, ( TS.22 ).
SRESA1B 5~95. (, 10)20105~95.1010.,
1996~20052000.,
. 14 58 ( ), 5(14 )19
( ), 18 47( ).{FAQ 9.2.11, Box11.1 1)
. ,
. {11.2~11.9}
TS.5.3
SRES 2000~2050
1
.
, 21
20 ( TS.29 ).
, 2030
20 10
2
. SRES
( TD.32) .
TS.28
. SRES
2000~2050
()
. {11.1}
21 ,
( TS.30).
,
(transition
zone) .
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12~2 6~8
12~2 6~8
(2090 ~ 2099, A1B ) 12~2 (2090 ~ 2099, A1B ) 6~8
TS.30.1979~1993 (mm/day) ( ) ( ) SRES A1B
1980~1999(%)2090~2099().12~1,
6~8.66%.
90% . { 8.5,10.9 }
, .
.
,
. {11.2~11.5}
21
( TS.30 ).
(South Island) Tierra del Fuego
, ,
,
. {11.2, 11.6,
11.7}
. -
, .
,
.
.
-
,
. {8.3, 11.2, 11.4 ,11.6}
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CO
2
CO
2
TS.31. 5 EMIC . CO2
750ppm 21000 .()
CO2 CO2 . () . ()
. { 10.35}
TS.5.4
CO
2
CO
2
,
. TAR ,
. SRES A2 ,
21 CO2
10~25%
, 2100 1 .
, CO2
CO2 .
. {7.3, 10.4}
CO
2
. SRES
21 pH 0.14~0.35
( ),
0.1 .
. SRES
21 600 ppm
CO2 CaCO3 .
.
CaCO3
.
. {Box 7.3, 10.4}
(Box TS.9).
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(i)
(time lag),
(ii)
.
,
,
. CH4, CO
, N2O
1 ,
1 (SF6, PFCs). CO2
. CO2
CO2
CO2
. CaCO3
CO2
30,000~35,000
. EMIC
CO2 1000
,
.
750 ppm
CO2
2100 0 .
CO2
(650~700 ppm) 2 (
560 ppm) 100 ~400 ( TS.31 ) {7.3, 10.7}
-CO
2
.
CH
4
.
CH4
.
CH4
.
. , ,
(: VOC)
.
.
OH
,
.{7.4, 4.7}
.
. ,
. 2
VOC
.
.
VOC
.
(dimethyl sulphide)(
) (sea salt)
.
. {7.5}
CO
2
.
.
.
10, 20
0.8 .
.
.
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SRES
20
TS.32.SRESA2(),A1B(),B1()(1980~1999).20
.A1BB1(BoxTS.9)2100.2000.
.,1.
.,
( 10.5 ). { 10.4}
. {Box 7.4, 7.6, 10.7}
,
.
.
,
, ,
, ,
.
.
.
{Box 7.4}
TS.5.5
0.5~0.6
. 2000
20
100 , 2100
0.6
(1980~1999 )( TS.32 ). B1
A1B 21
,
0.5, 100
. {10.3, 10.7}
. CO
2
CO
2
. -
, CO2 450 ppm
21
670 [630~710] ppm GtC 490
[375~600] GtC . CO2 1000 ppm
,
1415 [1340~1490] GtC
1100 [980~1250] GtC . {7.3,
10.4}
A1B 2100
, 2030
0.3~0.8 m (1980~1999 ),
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. {10.7}
2100
. A1B
2100 ,
0.03~0.21 m/100 .
1.9~4.6 1
,
. 7 m
.
125,000
.
4~6 m
. {6.4, 10.7}
.
,
. {4.6, 10.7}
,
.
. {10.7}
21 MOC
,
MOC
.
.
100
.
MOC
.
( )
. {8.7, FAQ 10.2, 10.3}
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TS.6
TS.6.1,(Drivers)
:
CO2 CH4, (positive)
65
. {6.4}
, , 250
. {2.3, 7.3, 7.4}
, ,
(flaring) CO2 1990
6.40.4 GtCyr-1
2000~2005 7.20.3
GtCyr-1
. {7.3}
40 CO2, CH4, N2O
2000 .
{6.4}
CO2
(, CO2
) 50~60% .
CO2
. {7.3}
()
. {2.9, 9.2}
, ,
,
1750 (net warning
influence) . {2.9}
. {2.5, 2.7}
,
. {2.4, 7.5}
. {2.3}
20
. {2.4}
CH4
. {7.4}
. {2.3}
-
. {2.5}
1
.
{2.7}
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TS.6.2
TS.6.2.1
. 12
11 1850
. {3.2}
1970 ,
. {3.2}
.
{3.8}
. 1958~2005
.
{3.4}
1900~2005
. {3.3}
. {3.8}
1970
. {3.3}
1980 .
{3.4}
,
.
(residual errors)
. {3.4}
1979
. {3.5, 3.6}
. {3.4}
DTR
,
. {3.2}
,
. {3.3}
, .
. {3.3}
.
. {3.8}
. {3.8}
, , ,
. {3.8}
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TS.6.2.2, ,
. 19
.
. {4.5, 4.6}
.
150 .
{4.2, 4.3}
1978 ,
,
. {4.4}
1990
(Amundsen shelf ice) .
, Larsen B Ice Shelf 2002
. {4.6}
1980
3 . 1990
7% , 20
0.3 m . {4.7}
1960
.
(snow water equivalent data)
. {4.2}
. {4.4}
, - ,
. {4.5}
. {4.6}
(basal process)
. {4.6}
TS.6.2.3
( ) 1955
. {5.2}
,
. ,
,
. {5.2}
20 .
19 20
. 1961~2003 1993~2003
. {5.5}
. {5.5}
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1993~2003
.
{5.5}
. {5.5}
1750 CO2
. {5.4, 7.3}
, ,
10 (Moderate)
. {5.2, 5.5}
MOC . {Box 5.1}
1961~2003
. {5.5}
TS.6.2.4
125,000
4~6 m . {6.4}
,
. {6.4}
3
. {6.4}
. {6.4}
20 500
50 , 1300 50
. {6.6}
2000
. {6.6}
.
. {6.4}
, ,
. {6.4}
. {6.6}
1
,
(proxy)
. {6.6}
20
(proxy) (proxy)
,
.{6.6}
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TS.6.3
50
.
.
{9.4}
,
. .
. {9.4, 9.7}
20 m
.
20
. {9.5}
10
(
, ) . {9.3}
,
. {9.4, 9.5}
50
,
,
,
. {9.4}
.
{9.5}
, ,
( )
.{9.5}
. {9.4, 9.5}
,
. ,
. {5.2, 9.5}
1961~2003
. {9.5}
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TS.6.4
TS.6.4.1
.
. AOGCM
.
(: ) (: )
. {FAQ 8.1}
. ,
.
,
(parameterizations) , .
~1
.
.
. {8.4}
,
. {8.2}
.
.
{8.2}
. {8.6}
, Madden-Julian Oscillation,
(atmospheric blocking),
. {8.4}
. {8.3}
. {8.1~8.5}
TS.6.4.2
2~4.5, 3
. 1.5 .
{8.6, 9.6, Box 10.2}
. 1 3
. {10.5}
.
1 ,
. {8.6}
AOGCM -
. {8.6}
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. {8.6}
TS.6.4.3
. {10.7}
(near term)
,
.
AOGCM 1980~1999
2011~2030 3
SRES , B1, A1B, A2 0.64~0.69
. {10.3}
,
. {10.3}
.
,
,
. {10.3}
.
. 21
.
.
. {10.3}
, MOC 2100
. MOC 21
. {10.3}
.
,
.
. {10.3, FAQ 10.1}
( )
CO2
. ,
CO2 .
, CO2
.
. {7.3, 10.4}
21 MOC
. 2100
, MOC
1~7 .
MOC
. {10.7}
. {10.3, 11.1}
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ENSO
,
. {10.3}
. {10.3}
,
(: ENSO, NAO,
(blocking), MOC, ,
). {11.2~11.9}
. {7.3, 10.4}
TS.6.4.4
21
.
.
{10.6}
21
. {10.7}
1
. {10.7}
. {10.6}
( )
, .
(
) . {10.7}
TS.6.4.5
50
,
. {10.3, 11.2~11.9}
. ,
, ,
,
. {11.2~11.9}
,
.
,
,
.
{11.2~11.9}
. , ,
, ,
.
.
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{11.2~11.9}
,
. {11.2~11.9}
AOGCM (: ,
, )
. {10.3, 11.2~11.9}
,
.
{11.2~11.9}