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Resilience to Extreme Weather
How can we learn from each other
Paris, 21st October, 2015
Cyrille Honoré, Météo-FrancePaul Davies, Met Office
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Major windstorms in Dec. : 92 p. killed, huge damage in Forests and infrastructure (15 bn €)
Windstorms: France 1999
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France 1999 windstorms
Good forecast but poor efficiency in warning process, poor understanding from the public Prime Minister decides to update the Warning procedure and inform the general public and Authorities simultaneously on the basis of simple and updated colour information (from proposals from Météo-France and the Civil Protection Authorities)
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Vigilance warning service
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5
Assessment
Annual assessment reports have been published since 2004.
Relevancy and timeliness of warnings are estimated from :• reports of damages, • Number of rescue operations, casualties, victims,• Lead time and anticipated measures taken on the field
Quality indexes are followed over time with stakeholders and partners
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BenefitsAfter more than twelve years of operations :
• 92% of the population know the vigilance map,• Of which 88% say they know the behavior advice, more or less• Facts are sometimes tragically different
• Close cooperation with Civil Protection helps to anticipate and manage crisis situations : preventive actions are taken to mitigate impacts and facilitate recovery
• Service delivery is enhanced using Internet technologies, social media in addition to traditional dissemination.
• Pressure on the system is ever rising…
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UK National Severe Weather Warning Service
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Warnings based in likelihood and impacts
LIKE
LIH
OO
D
High
Medium
Low
Very Low
Very Low
Low Medium High
Like
lihoo
d
Impacts
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© Crown copyright Met Office
Scotland 8 December 2011“The conditions are exactly as predicted when the Met Office issued its red warning” Nicola Sturgeon, Deputy First Minister
• Mon 5 Dec – Yellow warning issued – meetings with Scottish Govt, Transport Scotland and Resilience community begin
• Wed 7 Dec – Red warning issued• Thu 8 Dec – Gusts in excess of 100kts recorded
Valid from 10:00 am on Thu 08 Dec 2011 until 21:00 on Thu 08 Dec 2011
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Major flooding during summer 2007. Costs of insured losses £3.25Bn
Floods: UK 2007
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Pitt Review and UK Government Response
• Sir Michael Pitt’s independent review into the 2007 floods, published in June 2008 Comprehensive review into response and recovery from 2007 floods 92 recommendations
• Government published full response in December 2008 accepting all recommendations.
• Response led to establishment of multiagency Flood Forecasting Centre
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Flood VigilanceA working partership between Ministry of Environment Sustainable Development and Météo-France since 2007
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Storm Surge: NW Europe 2013/14
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From hazard forecasting…Windgusts higher than 160 km/h
Mean Wave height reaching 7,80 m at sea
10 m windspeed, gusts et isobars
Surcote
Mer totale (H1/3)
Storm surge higher than 1m
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…to potential impact : Atlantic coast, 2010, February 28th
Consequences were dramatic with 47 p. killed, 1.3 bn€ economic loss estimate.
Another strong driver to improve in 2011 !
"Without them (Météo-France), the toll would have been much higher", Président N.Sarkozy.
Credit: Reuters
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last hazard taken into account : coastal event
© Julien Lestage
5 December, 2013
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Collaboration and looking forward
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NHP – ‘The UK’s trusted voice for coordinated natural hazards advice’
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Meteoalarm
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© Crown copyright Met Office
Questions
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