IMPORTANT INFORMATION AND DISCLOSURES AT THE END OF THIS REPORT
17 February 2014
Credit Research
Andreas Zsiga +46 8 514 6203 [email protected]
www.nordeamarkets.com
Jernhusen
Chugging on in 2013
Like-for-like revenues and NOI improving. Jernhusen reported a
5% decline in 2013 revenues YoY, while the NOI-margin weakened
to 42% (45%), reflecting previous portfolio disposals (Kungsbron in
Stockholm) as well as the hotel closure at the Central Station Stock-
holm City. On a comparable basis, sales increased 5%, and the NOI
improved 13%, reflecting higher rents from stations and depots..
Continued strong underlying demand. Jernhusen refers to in-
creased sales in the Swedish retail sector, with its core customer seg-
ment fast food growing 3.6% YoY and translating into higher sales
among rental customers. Additionally, underlying demand is sup-
ported by continued gains in rail passenger and freight volumes.
Project investments but stable LTV. Continued net investments
boosted property values by some 14% to SEK11.3 bn, while the
LTV level decreased slightly to 52% (53% by YE12). Major devel-
opment projects involving the Stockholm City Station and the
Malmö Central Station has been initiated, while the new Depot in
Boxholn has been completed, with the Stockholm Årsta Kom-
biterminal close to completion.
Key credit drivers — stable with a positive twist
Performance trend looks robust. We take comfort from the strong
like-for-like improvement in revenues and NOI, which should bene-
fit from higher GDP growth in 2014 and increase traffic volumes.
The ongoing project development is a risk incorporate into the credit
profile., and has solid long term potential.
Refinancing and lower LTV improves financial risk profile. The
refinancing completed during 2013 has extended debt maturities,
hence addressing one of our previous concerns regarding Jernhusens
financial profile. The contained LTV levels, and reduced secured
debt to some10 % of LTV is positive for senior unsecured lenders.
We see no changes to strategy or ownership risks.
We are firm on our A corporate rating (BBB standalone).
Recommdendation We remain market perform on Jernhusen’s SEK bonds, but note
that Rikshem (-/A-) and Fortum offers interesting comparable
at slightly wider spreads at the 4.5 year point. We think that
Vasakronan’s new issue curve should carry a premium compared to
airport operator Swedavia and real-estate company Jernhusen, re-
flecting the direct state ownership in the two latter entities by the
Ministry of Finance.
Corporate family ratings
Long Outlook
S&P n.r n.r
Moody’s n.r n.r
Nordea Markets A Stable
Rental revenues and PMP (SEKm)
Unsecured bond ratings
Long Outlook
S&P n.r n.r
Moody’s n.r n.r
Nordea Markets A Stable
Debt and debt/EBITDA (SEKm, x)
Recommendation
Market perform
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
0
200
400
600
800
1,000
1,200
1,400
1,600
1,800
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014E 2015E 2016E
Total income NOI PMP NOI-margin
Source: Company reports
0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1
1.2
1.4
1.6
1.8
48%
50%
52%
54%
56%
58%
60%
62%
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014E 2015E
Loan-to-value Debt/equity
Source: Company reports
Jernhusen 17 February 2014
www.nordeamarkets.com 2
Relative value comparison
-5
15
35
55
75
95
115
0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7
Vasakronan Akademiska Hus Specialfastigheter Swedavia Jernhusen
SHYP Hemsö Rikshem Fortum
Jernhusen 17 February 2014
www.nordeamarkets.com 3
Shadow rating approach and rationale
Applied rating methodology
Based on S&P
methodology
In line with S&P, we base our shadow rating on Jernhusen on the company’s stand-alone
credit profile, adding ratings uplift for potential extraordinary ownership support, reflect-
ing the likelihood for timely, extraordinary support by its key shareholder in a situation of
financial distress.
BBB stand-alone Stand alone rating profile BBB
Our shadow rating is based on a “Strong” business risk profile, and a “Significant” finan-
cial risk profile.
Supported by
attractive portfolio
Credit supportive Centrally and strategically located properties throughout the Swedish national railroad
network
Portfolio value concentrated to the three largest regions in Sweden
Dversified earnings base, with a meaningful share of revenue from state-owned or public entities
Good prospective growth in passenger volumes to support
Potential for divestments of non-core properties to balance planned investments
Solid financial risk management framework, including adequate liquidity profile fol-lowing the H113 refinancing.
Capped by
commercial property
and financial profile
Credit challenges Relatively moderate debt leverage with loan-to-value at 52% at YE2013 (YE 2012
53%)
Exposure to commercial tenants within the retail and office segment, with some tenant concentration risk
Smaller size compared to larger rated peers
Growing project development activities, which carries higher risk than ordinary prop-erty management
Uplift to A given ownership support
Full state ownership
and transport policy
role
In our view, Jernhusen would benefit from a “High” likelihood of extraordinary support, providing a 2 notch uplift to A given the following factors:
100% owned by the Kingdom of Sweden, with no political agenda to be privatized. According to the shareholder, Jernhusen has “an important strategic function without any specific public policy role”.
In our understanding, the shareholder views Jernhusen as a vehicle for promoting com-muting and regional passenger traffic (through development of train stations and maintenance depots) and therefore plays a role in executing the national/regional transport policy
Jernhusen’s significant development projects are supported by the shareholder as they will further promote commuting/regional & national passenger traffic, thereby ena-bling further growth of the largest Swedish city regions.
Even though these development projects could theoretically be assumed by a private entity/investor, our impression is that the government would like to remain “in control” of and ripe the benefits of these major projects.
Jernhusen 17 February 2014
www.nordeamarkets.com 4
Group Profile
100% state owned Jernhusen was incorporated in 2001 as part of a wider restructuring of the Swedish nation-
al railway sector, separating train operations, infrastructure management, and property
management. The company is 100% owned by the Kingdom of Sweden, and the owner-
ship is managed by the Ministry of Finance. The portfolio value was SEK11.3 bn at YE13.
Focus on rail related
properties
The company owns, manages and develops railway related properties throughout the main
lines in the Swedish railway network, including a number of train stations, maintenance
depots and cargo terminals. Jernhusen owns land in attractive locations, mainly close to
train stations, which the company develop over time.
Commerically
operated & financed
Jernhusen’s key objective is to contribute to an increased use of public and sustainable
transport. The company is operated and financed on commercial terms, and is organized in
four business areas:
Business dominated
by Stations
Significant project
development
Stations. A key area constituting 51% of portfolio value, 57% of rental revenues and 54%
of NOI (2013). It is dominated by retail outlets and restaurants, and some offices, in 60
locations. Rental contracts normally include a fixed and a turnover based element.
City projects. Manages and develops projects close to stations, mainly in major cities.
Projects are typically divested at completion. It significantly reduced from an average
portfolio value of about 25% 2005-2011, following the 2012 disposal of Kungsbrohuset in
Stockholm, but is now on the rise given investments in the Stockholm City Station area.
Depots. 20 depots across Sweden with a YE12 market value of SEK3.4bn. Customers are
train operators and regional public transport authorities. Demand is growing on the back
of increased traffic volumes.
Cargo terminals. 13 cargo terminals with customers in the intermodal freight business. It
is relatively marginal to the overall business, and has lost traffic volumes to direct truck
operations for several years.
Figure 1: Business area composition 2013 (%) Figure 2: Revenue per property type 2013 (%)
Figure 3: Segment revenue and NOI-margin Figure 4: : Geographical revenue composition 2012
0 20 40 60
Stockholm
Gothenburg
Malmö
Helsingborg
Örebro
Uppsala
Västerås
Other
Source: Company report
0
0.1
0.2
0.3
0.4
0.5
0.6
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1400
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
Stations City projects Depots
Cargo terminals EBIT-marginSource: Company report
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
Property value Rental revenues NOI
Stations City projects Depots Cargo terminalSource: Company report
0 20 40 60
Resturants and retail
Depots
Terminals
City projects
Office
Other
Source: Company report
Jernhusen 17 February 2014
www.nordeamarkets.com 5
Business Operations
Credit supportive
portfolio structure
Low vacanies
Less cyclicality than
commercial properties
in general
We consider the overall composition of Jernhusens property portfolio as credit supportive.
In the Station, Depot and Cargo terminal segments, the specialty nature of the properties
means that entry barriers are very high, and that tennats have a high strategic interest in
maintaining long-term relationships (balancing short lease maturities of about one year in
Depots). In addition, the long-term trend is for increased traffic flow on the main lines of
the Swedish railway sector, especially in terms of passanger volumes, is underpinning
demand in the Station and Depot business. This is also illustrated by low vacancy levels
of about 5%.
We think that Jernhusens rental revenues are less cyclical than in the commercial property
sector in general. Rents in the Station business is partially linked to turnover, but given the
nature (low-cost fast food, newspapers, etc.), the demand is fairly stable, underpinned by
steadily growing passanger volumes. This balance the relatively short lease contracts.
Concentration to
major cities
The geographical location of Jernhusen’s portfolio is positive from a credit perspective.
As of year-end 2013 the vast part, or about 85%, of Jernhusen’s portfolio value is
concentrated to the three largest regions in Sweden: Stockholm (48%), Gothenburg (18%)
and Malmö (8%). The properties are generally strategically located in city centres. Over
the past years, Jernhusen has divested a number of station buildings located in smaller
cities to concentrate development in the major, growing urban areas.
Managable tennat
concentration risk
Jernhusen is exposed to some tennat concentration risk. The five largest tennats provide
about 45% of rental value (of which the state-owned railway operator SJ AB proving
20%). Meanwhile, the operations of the largest tennants are intristically linked to the
railway infrastructure, with basically no or few alternatives.
The project business
carries higher risks
The City project business overall increases Jernhusen’s business risk. A few projects are
of significant scale and long term horizon (e.g. the Stockholm and Gothenburg Central
stations). The main risks are related to project execution and letting at completion. Balanc-
ing this, Jernhusen requires certain level of pre-letting (depending on the project size), and
all major investment projects are subject to a board decision. Furthermore, the attractive
locations of the properties reduces letting risk considerably, in our view.
Figure 5: Tennant structure 2013 (%) Figure 6: Yield vs. 5-yr swap rate (%)
Figure 7: Lease expiery 2013 (% of total) Figure 8: Vacancy rates (%)
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020-
Share of rental revenuesSource: Company report
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
Yield SEK 5 year swap rateSource: Company reports , Bloomberg
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
18
20
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
18
20
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
Area based vacancy rate Economic vacancy rateSource: Company reports
17%
9%
6%
4%
3%
61%
SJ
Euromaint Rail
Reitan
ServicehandelScandinaviaService PartnersMantena Sverige
Others
Jernhusen 17 February 2014
www.nordeamarkets.com 6
Financial Profile
Figure 1: LTV (%) Figure 2: Rental income and earnings (SEKmn, %)
Figure 1: Capitalization ratios (%) Figure 2: EBITDA ICR (x)
Solid capital structure and financial performance
Moderate gearing
ratios
Jernhusen’s capital structure and leverage has fluctudated a bit over the years, reflecting
the impact from project development and portfolio adjustments. Meanwhile, the credit
measures are fair for a BBB real estate credit. This includes an equity ratio of 35-43%, and
a net debt/equity averaging 135% over the last five years (42% and 118% by YE2013).
LTV fair for a BBB
credit
The LTV ratio has varied in the range of 52-60% in the 2008-2013 period (52% YE2013),
This is fair for a mid-BBB credit considering the stability of the business. LTV levels
could increase towards 60% in the 2014-2016 given a high expected investment level. We
are not concerned given the stability of the business and attractiveness of properties devel-
opment, and the capacity to reduce LTV once projects are completed.
Moderate but stable
NOI-margins
Weak cash flow
measures is a sector
characteristic
Interest management
compares favorably
The NOI-margin has fluctuated between 43-50% since 2008. The trend has been declin-
ing, reducing to 42% 2013. The level is comparatively moderate in a peer group perspec-
tive including commercial real estate companies, and reflect the more stable business as
well as considerable development features in the portfolio. Yield levels in Jernhusens
portfolio is average in our view at about 5-6% considering the strength of the portfolio.
Meanwhile, the company has struggled to meet its return on equity target of 12%, reflect-
ing significant developing activities in the magnitude of 10-15% of total portfolio values
and the high equity capitalization.
FFO/Net debt has fluctuated between 4% and 7% (4.4% 2013). This is weak compared to
most other sectors, but reflective of the real estate sector funding and cash generation pro-
file and hence constitute no major concern in our view.
The declining EBITDA ICR trend 2009-2012 has reversed and stabilized, reaching a re-
ported 3.2x at YE2013 (3.2x 2012). This compares well to sector peers. The improvement
reflects fairly stable EBITDA levels combined with significantly reduced interest expens-
es given the declining interest rate environment. Jernhusen has a well extended average
interest rate maturity of 3.6 years at YE 2013, which will provide protection in a potential-
ly raising interest rate environment in our view.
0.0x
1.0x
2.0x
3.0x
4.0x
5.0x
6.0x
7.0x
8.0x
0.0x
1.0x
2.0x
3.0x
4.0x
5.0x
6.0x
7.0x
8.0x
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
Source: Company report
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
0
200
400
600
800
1,000
1,200
1,400
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
Total income NOI PMP
Source: Company reports
48%
50%
52%
54%
56%
58%
60%
62%
46%
48%
50%
52%
54%
56%
58%
60%
62%
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
Source: Company reports , Nordea
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
120%
140%
160%
180%
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
120%
140%
160%
180%
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
Source: Company reportsSource:
Jernhusen 15 February 2014
www.nordeamarkets.com 7
Funding and Liquidity on an improving trend
H1 2012 refinanicng
credit positive
A well diversified
funding structure
Jernhusen has traditionally relied on secured bank financing. During 2012 and 2013, the
company has shifted towards market based funding, reducing the level of bank debt sub-
stantially and lowering the utilization of bank facilities. Overall, we view the refinancing,
including debt maturity extension and lower secured LTV, as credit supportive
During H113, the company agreed several credit facilities totaling SEK4.65bn, replacing
the SEK6.7bn facility maturing H22013. Out of the new facilities, SEK3 bn is unsecured
(average maturity about 2 years), and aimed for back-up of the SEK3 bn CP program,
which was utilized at SEK2.9bn at YE2013. A SEK1.65bn facility remain secured.
As part of the refinancing, the company has issued a total of SEK1.8 bn of bonds under its
SEK3 bn MTB-program. The refinancing has reduced the share of secured debt to a LTV
equivalent of 10% by YE2013, well in line with the company’s financial targets.
Change of control
protection
Jernhusen’s bonds contain change of control clauses should the Kingdom of Sweden re-
duce its ownership below 100% of shares and votes.
Adequate liquidity
bordering strong
Liquidity is adequate bordering strong, and one of our major, previous credit concerns
have now been addressed. The maturity profile has been extended during 2013 to 2.7
years at YE. Short term debt maturities largely consist of CPs. Liquid assets consist of
some SEK25-100 mn in cash (seasonally fluctuating) and unutilized committed credit
lines of SEK4.8bn at YE2013).
. Financial policy provides adequate risk management
Financial policy is
balanced
Jernhusen has recently updated its financial policy. We generally consider the require-
ments as adequate and credit protective, even if the interest maturities policy allows for an
opportunistic application. Meanwhile, we understand that the company has historically
maintained considerable headroom to its policy levels, which is positive.
Figure 9: Debt and interest maturity profile 2013 (yrs) Figure 10: Loan portfolio Q313 (SEK bn)
Area Policy requirement Comment
Average debt maturity Minimun 2 years Positive, limits refinancing risk
Unutilized credit facility and liquidity/ST debt Minimum 100% Adequate
Secured funding LTV Maximum 200% Positive for bond holders
Average interest rate maturity 1-5 years Fairly generous/opportunistics
Interest maturities within 12 months Max 60% Fairly generous/opportunistic
ICR Minium 2x Adequate, sector standard
Equity ratio 35-45% Adequate, provide good tolerance
guidance
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
0-1 1-2 2-3 3-4 4-5 > 5
Interest DebtSource: Company report
0 2000 4000 6000 8000
0 1000 2000 3000 4000 5000 6000 7000
Secured bank facilities
Unsec. bank facilities
Bonds (MTN)
CP
Overdraft facility
Other loans
Utilized FrameSource: Company reports
Jernhusen 17 February 2014
www.nordeamarkets.com 8
LTV and ICR Rental revenues and profitability
Key Financials
Key Financial Ratios and forecast
2013-2015 reflect a
peak in investments
Our 2014-2016 forecast incorporates a significant net investment level (SEK2.4 bn), with
a gradual increase in rental revenues and earnings (about 10% a year). Interest rates are
expected to trend up slightly towards 3% on average. We see significant room to trim
down gearing ratios, including LTVs once projects have been completed, as well as tem-
per investment activity to weakening market conditions.
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
0
200
400
600
800
1,000
1,200
1,400
1,600
1,800
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014E 2015E 2016E
Total income NOI PMP NOI-margin
Source: Company reports
0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1
1.2
1.4
1.6
1.8
48%
50%
52%
54%
56%
58%
60%
62%
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014E 2015E
Loan-to-value Debt/equity
Source: Company reports
Income statement (SEKm) 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014E 2015E 2016E
Total income 868 1,014 1,094 1,161 1,140 1,104 1,236 1,385 1,551
Net operating income 405 453 498 549 508 463 524 587 657
Depreciation 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Capital gains 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Central administration (37) (40) (46) (42) (41) (36) (40) (40) (40)
Items distorting comp. 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Operating income 166 103 739 392 523 797 614 678 748
Property management profit (PMP) 368 414 452 507 468 427 320 340 401
Net financial expenses (124) (55) (99) (163) (182) (147) (164) (207) (216)
Pre-tax profit 42 48 641 229 341 650 450 471 532
Tax (paid) 11 (4) (151) (54) 222 (137) 100 100 100
Deferred tax 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Net profit 53 43 490 175 564 513 550 571 632
Balance sheet (SEKm) 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014E 2015E 2016E
Properties 7,186 8,946 9,502 10,829 9,896 11,327 12,857 13,887 14,017
Other assets 651 768 900 744 744 592 592 592 592
Cash and bank 31 11 6 10 8 0 0 0 0
Total assets 7,868 9,726 10,407 11,583 10,648 11,920 13,450 14,480 14,610
Equity 3,121 3,618 4,011 4,088 4,555 4,973 5,005 5,140 5,505
Interest-bearing liabilities 4,042 5,279 5,347 6,484 5,268 5,879 7,213 8,108 7,872
Non-interest liabilities 401 520 591 498 526 630 794 794 794
Total liabilities and equity 7,868 9,726 10,407 11,583 10,648 11,920 13,450 14,480 14,610
Debt 4,042 5,279 5,347 6,484 5,268 5,879 7,213 8,108 7,872
Cash flow statement (SEKm) 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014E 2015E 2016E
FFO 204 345 357 349 282 258 320 341 402
Cash flow from operations 276 480 347 343 343 360 320 341 402
Investments (properties) (609) (2,129) (1,401) (1,161) (1,060) (1,288) (1,500) (1,500) (1,500)
Disposals (properties) 48 73 1,086 5 2,114 87 100 600 1,500
Dividends (100) (100) (100) (100) (100) (100) (100) (100) (100)
DPS 25 25 25 25 25 33 33 34 35
No of shares (m) 4 4 4 4 4 40 40 40 40
Discretionary cash flow (385) (1,676) (68) (913) 1,297 (942) (1,180) (659) 302
Key ratios 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014E 2015E 2016E
Loan-to-value 56% 59% 56% 60% 53% 52% 56% 58% 56%
Equity ratio 40% 37% 39% 35% 43% 42% 37% 35% 38%
Debt/equity 130% 146% 133% 159% 116% 118% 144% 158% 143%
Debt/debt+equity 56% 59% 57% 61% 54% 54% 59% 61% 59%
EBITDA interest coverage 4.0x 7.1x 4.5x 3.0x 2.5x 2.7x 3.0x 2.6x 2.9x
EBITDA/(net interest plus dividends) 2.2x 2.5x 2.2x 1.9x 1.6x 1.6x 1.8x 1.8x 2.0x
FFO/debt 5.1% 6.5% 6.7% 5.4% 5.3% 4.4% 4.4% 4.2% 5.1%
FFO less dividends/debt 2.6% 4.6% 4.8% 3.8% 3.4% 2.7% 3.1% 3.0% 3.8%
Net rental income/interest 4.4x 10.6x 7.2x 4.7x 4.5x 4.7x 7.6x 6.7x 7.2x
Debt/EBITDA 8.2x 13.4x 12.1x 13.1x 11.5x 14.8x 14.9x 14.8x 12.8x
NOI-margin 46.6% 44.7% 45.5% 47.3% 44.6% 42.0% 42.4% 42.4% 42.4%
Property yield (actual) 11.3% 5.6% 5.4% 5.4% 5.2% 4.4% 4.3% 4.4% 4.7%
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
0
200
400
600
800
1,000
1,200
1,400
1,600
1,800
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014E 2015E 2016E
Total income NOI PMP NOI-margin
Source: Company reports
Jernhusen 17 February 2014
www.nordeamarkets.com 9
Peer Group Comparison
Government related property companies provide good peers
Jernhusen’s mix of commercial and transportation infrastructure policy related properties
with governent ownership implies that the most relevant peer group is found among other
government owned or related property companies.
Rikshem
Rikshem is a somewhat larger company focusing on residential, student and elderly
housing in Sweden, which carries lower business risk. Meanwhile, the financial profile is
weaker given a higher LTV (above 60%) and more aggressive funding (short debt and
interest maturities. The ownership support is weaker (50/50 by State Pension Fund 4
(AP4) and the AMF pension fund), but it has no government policy role.
Vasakronan
Vasakronan is a significantly larger company, focusing on CBD office and retail property
in the three major urban areas in Sweden. We see business risk as slightly higher than
Jernhusen. The financial profile is at par, with LTV and debt and interest maturities
roughly equal. We notch up the shadow rating on Vasakronan given the 100% ownership
by State Pension Funds 1-4, but consider that there is less room for an uplift given lack of
direct government ownership and absence of any government policy role.
Akademiska Hus
Fully government owned, Akademiska Hus provides facilities for Swedish universities
and colleges under long term contracts. The business risk is significantly lower than
Jernhusen, and financial risk is also lower given LTV levels. S&P’s standalone rating on
Akademiska Hus is aa-, with a one notch uplift.
Specialfastigheter
Fully government owned, Specialfastigheter provides offices and special property
facilities to the Swedish law enforcement sector (police and prisons), as well as some
military related facilities. This renders a significantly lower business risk, while financial
risk is comparable (e.g. similar LTV levels).
Hemsö Jernhusen Rikshem Vasakronan Akademiska Hus Special-fastigheter
Rating (S&P) -- -- A- -- AA AA+
Nordea shadow rating BBB+ A A- A-
Nordea (stand alone) BBB+ BBB A- BBB+
Ownership 85% AP3,15% Sagax 100% Gov 50% AP,50% AMF 25% each AP1-4 100% Gov 100% Gov
CoC MTN <50% AP1-4 ownership 100% Gov 97% combined, 50/50
(no MTN, different in the
2 PPs)
51% AP1-4 50% Gov 100% Gov
(SEKm) (SEKm) (SEKm) (SEKm) (SEKm) (SEKm)
Gross rental income 1875 1104 1485 6,032 5,359 1,858
Net operating income 1340 463 796 4,279 3,506 1,499
EBITDA 1167 405 755 4,279 3,506
Net income 464 397 1455 4,818 3,147 1,301
Funds from op. 440 258 185 2,600 3,060 1,029
Net investments -391 -1047 3054 -1,119 -2,459 -226
Dividends 116 100 1,177 1,355 260
BV Properties 22637 11327 20009 87,145 57,557 19,455
Debt incl- shareholder loans 17699 5879 15485 42,704 23,860 9,461
Op. performance
Weighted avg lease mat (years) 7.5 3.3 12.4 4.3 5.1
Weighted avg debt mat (years) 2.9 2.7 1.9 3.0 6.8 3.0
Weighted avg interest mat (years) 3.3 3.3 3.6 4.2 3.4 2.1
Key ratios
Yield 5.9% 5.9% 4.0% 4.9% 7.2% 7.6%
NOI-margin 71% 42% 54% 71% 65% 78%
EBITDA interest cov 2.4x 3.2x 2.2x 2.8x 6.7x 5.5x
FFO/debt 2.5% 4.4% 1.2% 6.1% 12.8% 10.9%
Debt/EBITDA 13.2 14.5 20.5 10.0 11.5x 13.2x
LTV incl. Shareholder loans 78% 52% 77% 49% 41% 49%
LTV excl. Shareholder loans 65% 52% 63% 51% 41% 50%
LTV secured debt 41% 8% 35% 18% 0% 0%
RoE 15% 11% 13% 8% 20%
Disclaimer
Disclaimer and legal disclosures
Origin of the publication or report This publication or report originates from: Nordea Bank AB (publ), Nordea Bank Danmark A/S, Nordea Bank Finland Plc and Nordea Bank Norge ASA (together the
“Group Companies” or “Nordea Group”) acting through their unit Nordea Markets.
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Content of the publication or report This publication or report has been prepared solely by Nordea Markets.
Opinions or suggestions from Nordea Markets may deviate from recommendations or opinions presented by other departments or companies in the Nordea Group.
The reason may typically be the result of differing time horizons, methodologies, contexts o other factors.
Opinions and price targets are based on one or more methods of valuation, for instance cash flow analysis, use of multiples, behavioural technical analyses of under-lying market movements in combination with considerations of the market situation and the time horizon. Key assumptions of forecasts, price targets and projections in research cited or reproduced appear in the research material from the named sources. The date of publication appears from the research material cited or repro-duced. Opinions and estimates may be updated in subsequent versions of the publication or report, provided that the relevant company/issuer is treated anew in such
later versions of the publication or report.
This report has been reviewed, for the purpose of verification of fact or sequence of facts, by the Issuer of the relevant financial instruments mentioned in the report
prior to publication. The review has led to changes of facts in the report.
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Disclaimer
Nordea Markets analysts do not hold shares in the companies that they cover.
No holdings or other affiliations by analysts or associates.
Recommendations definitions
Outperform
Over the next three months, the fixed income instrument's total
return is expected to exceed the total return of the relevant
benchmark.
Market perform
Over the next three months, the fixed income instrument's total
return is expected to be in line with the total return of the rele-
vant benchmark.
Underperform
Over the next three months, the fixed income instrument's total
return is expected to be below the total return of the relevant
benchmark.
All research is produced on an ad hoc basis and will be updat-
ed when the circumstances require it.
Distribution of recommendations
Market-making obligations and other significant
Nordea has no market making or other significant obligations in
Jernhusen.
Corporate Finance transactions
Nordea Markets has no ongoing or completed public invest-
ment banking transactions with Jernhusen. In view of Nordea’s
position in its markets, readers should however assume that
the bank may currently (or may in the coming three months
and beyond) be providing or seeking to provide confidential
investment banking services to the company/companies re-
ferred to in this report.
Material interest held by the issuer in shares issued
Recommendation Count % of total
Outperform 52 15%
Market perform 213 61%
Underperform 87 25%
Total 352 100%
As of 2014-02-17
Nordea Markets Credit Sales and Research Institutional Sales Sweden Ted Karlsson [email protected] +46 8 614 78 98 Tomas Köhlberg [email protected] +46 8 614 6702 Utta Wester [email protected] +46 8 614 6916 Cecilia Tannerfeldt [email protected] +46 8 614 8753 Martin Andersson [email protected] +46 8 614 82 14 Philip Erlandsson [email protected] +46 8 614 67 09 Institutional Sales Finland Jani Lindholm [email protected] +358 9 36950242 Henrik Haakana [email protected] +358 9 369 50214 Patrik Grönfors [email protected] +358 9 396 50354 Institutional Sales Finland Henrik Nielsen [email protected] +45 3333 1637 Lisbeth Rosendal [email protected] +45 3333 1869 Palle Lund Hansen [email protected] +45 3333 1635
Institutional Sales Norway Julie Ellneby [email protected] +47 22 48 77 06 Erich Normann [email protected] +47 2248 7782 Espen Froyn [email protected] +47 2248 7747 Kristian Sørensen [email protected] +47 2248 7846 John Hoel [email protected] +47 2248 7785 Petter Hermansen [email protected] +47 2248 7719 Hege M. Schuessler [email protected] +47 2248 7806 Morten Frimann-Dahl [email protected] +47 22 48 77 84 Stein Morten Sæther [email protected] +47 2248 7876 Kristoffer Johansen [email protected] +47 2248 7717 Christian Malde [email protected] +47 2248 7863 Kristoffer Solem Sletten [email protected] +47 22 48 79 50
Credit Research Mark Schindele [email protected] +46 8614 8201 Industrials & Utilities Andreas Zsiga [email protected] +46 8614 6203 Industrials Elina Kaltie [email protected] +358 9 369 59009 Pulp & Paper, Finnish Industrials Lars Kirkeby [email protected] +47 2248 4264 Norwegian Industrials Lars Husby Erichsen [email protected] +47 2248 7951 Norwegian Financials Nadia Bendriss nadia. [email protected] +47 2248 7956 Offshore & Oil Services Kristoffer B. Pedersen [email protected] +47 22 48 79 80 Offshore & Oil Services Anders R. Karlsen [email protected] +47 2248 4119 Shipping Morten Heiner Pedersen [email protected] +45 3333 1620 Credit Strategy & DK Industrials Michael Sandfort, CFA [email protected]
+45 3333 1621
Nordic Financials
Josefine Lund Christiansen
Nordea Markets is the name of the Markets departments of Nordea Bank Norge ASA, Nordea Bank Sverige AB (publ), Nordea Bank Finland Plc and
Nordea Bank Danmark A/S. Copyright Nordea Markets, 2001. Not approved for publication in the United States.
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