IUMI 2016 Berlin
Casualty and World Fleet Statistics as at 01.01.2016
Prepared by Philip Graham
IUMI Facts & Figures Committee
1
Casualty Statistics
Total Loss Trends
Updated 1st January 2016
2
Source: LLI, total losses as reported in Lloyds List
Total Losses 1999 – 2014By Number (vessels > 500 GT)
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
18
1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Bulkers Tankers Containerships Non-Cargo Passenger Specialised Fishing General Cargo
3
4
Total Losses 1999 – 2014By Tonnage (vessels > 500 GT)
0
50'000
100'000
150'000
200'000
250'000
300'000
350'000
400'000
450'000
1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Bulkers Tankers General CargoContainerships Non-Cargo PassengerSpecialised Fishing
Source: LLI, total losses as reported by Lloyds List
0.0%
0.1%
0.2%
0.3%
0.4%
in % of Vessels in % of GT
Source: Fleet numbers : Clarkson Research Services
Losses: LLI, total losses as reported in Lloyds List
Total Losses 1999 – 2014As Percentage of World Fleet Vessels > 500GT
5
Tanker Total Losses 1999 – 2014As Percentage of World Tanker FleetTankers > 500GT
0.0%
0.1%
0.2%
0.3%
in % of Vessels in % of GT
Source: Fleet numbers : Clarkson Research Services
Losses: LLI, total losses as reported in Lloyds List
6
Bulker Total Losses 1999 – 2014As Percentage of World Bulker FleetBulkers > 10,000 DWT
0.0%
0.1%
0.2%
0.3%
in % of Vessels in % of GT
Source: Fleet numbers : Clarkson Research Services
Losses: LLI, total losses as reported in Lloyds List
7
Total Losses 1999 – 2014As Percentage of World Container Fleet
0.0%
0.1%
0.2%
0.3%
in % of Vessels in % of GT
Source: Fleet numbers : Clarkson Research Services
Losses: LLI, total losses as reported in Lloyds List
8
Total Bulker Losses by Age Percentage of World Bulker Fleet
Bulkers >10,000 DWT
0.00%
0.01%
0.02%
0.03%
0.04%
0.05%
0.06%
0.07%
0.08%
0.09%
0-4 5-9 10-14 15-19 20-24 25+
Age
2006-2010 2011-2015
Source: Fleet numbers : Clarkson Research Services
Losses: LLI, total losses as reported in Lloyds List
9
Total Tanker Losses by AgePercentage of World Tanker Fleet
Tankers >500 DWT
0.00%
0.01%
0.02%
0.03%
0.04%
0.05%
0.06%
0.07%
0-4 5-9 10-14 15-19 20-24 25+
Age
2006-2010 2011-2015
Source: Fleet numbers : Clarkson Research Services
Losses: LLI, total losses as reported in Lloyds List
10
Source: LLI, total losses as reported by Lloyds List
Total Losses 2000 – 2014By Cause, All Vessel Type (vessels > 500 GT)
0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 35% 40% 45% 50%
Other
Machinery
Hull Damage
Collision/contact
Fire/explosion
Grounding
Weather
Frequency ( % of all total losses for the period)
2001 -20052006-20102011-2015
11
Casualty Statistics
Serious and Total Loss Trends
Updated 1st January 2016
12
Source: LLI
Serious and Total Losses 1999 – 2015*By Number (*awaiting 2015 serious loss data)
(vessels > 500 GT)
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Number of Incidents
Total loss Serious Ex TL Total
Source: LLI, total losses as reported by Lloyds List13
0.0%
0.5%
1.0%
1.5%
2.0%
2.5%
3.0%
in % of Vessels in % of GT
Source: Fleet numbers : Clarkson Research Services
Losses: LLI, total losses as reported in Lloyds List
Serious Losses 1998 – 2015*As Percentage of World Fleet (*awaiting 2015 serious loss data)
Vessels > 500GT
14
Casualty of World Fleet StatisticsGlobal Fleet Statistics for IUMI as at 1st January 2016
Prepared for IUMIBy Clarksons Research Services LimitedContact Email: [email protected] Reference No: CRSL-A3554-16
January 2016
www.clarksons.com
Fleet Information
January 2016 16
www.clarksons.com 17
Tanker Fleet
January 2016
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
900
5'000
6'000
7'000
8'000
9'000
10'000
11'000
12'000
13'000
14'000
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
No. of vesselsN
o. o
f ves
sels
Fleet, End Year (LHS) Deliveries (RHS) Scrapping (RHS)
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
50
55
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
450
500
550
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
million D
WTm
illio
n D
WT
Fleet, End Year (LHS) Deliveries (RHS) Scrapping (RHS)
Historical Development of Tanker Fleet (No.) Historical Development of Tanker Fleet (DWT)
Note (1): “Tanker” includes all oil & product tankers, chemical tankers and specialised tankers above 100 GT.
Source: Clarksons Research, January 2016 Source: Clarksons Research, January 2016
www.clarksons.com 18
Bulkcarrier Fleet
January 2016
0
200
400
600
800
1'000
1'200
1'400
4'000
5'000
6'000
7'000
8'000
9'000
10'000
11'000
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
No. of vesselsN
o. o
f ves
sels
Fleet, End Year (LHS) Deliveries (RHS) Scrapping (RHS)
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
110
120
200
250
300
350
400
450
500
550
600
650
700
750
800
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
million D
WTm
illio
n D
WT
Fleet, End Year (LHS) Deliveries (RHS) Scrapping (RHS)
Historical Development of Bulker Fleet (No.) Historical Development of Bulker Fleet (DWT)
Note (1): Includes all bulkcarriers above 100 GT.
Source: Clarksons Research, January 2016 Source: Clarksons Research, January 2016
www.clarksons.com 19
Containership and Multipurpose Fleet
January 2016
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
2'000
3'000
4'000
5'000
6'000
7'000
8'000
9'000
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
No. of vesselsN
o. o
f ves
sels
Fleet, End Year (LHS) Deliveries (RHS) Scrapping (RHS)
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
million D
WTm
illio
n D
WT
Fleet, End Year (LHS) Deliveries (RHS) Scrapping (RHS)
Historical Development of the Containership and Multipurpose Fleets (No.)
Historical Development of the Containership and Multipurpose Fleets (DWT)
Note (1): Includes all containerships and multipurpose vessels above 100 GT.
Source: Clarksons Research, January 2016 Source: Clarksons Research, January 2016
www.clarksons.com 20
Tanker, Bulker, Containership and MPP Fleets
January 2016
Note (1): Includes all vessels in these categories above 100 GT.Source: Clarksons Research, January 2016
Note (2): All fleet totals are on the left-hand axis and deliveries and scrapping figures are on the right hand axis. Fleet totals are as at end year; deliveries and scrapping figures are full year totals.
0
300
600
900
1'200
1'500
1'800
2'100
2'400
2'700
0
4'000
8'000
12'000
16'000
20'000
24'000
28'000
32'000
36'000
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
No. of vesselsN
o. o
f ves
sels
Tanker Fleet Bulkcarrier Fleet Containership/MPPs Fleets Deliveries Scrapping
www.clarksons.com 21
Cruise Fleet
January 2016
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
18
20
200
220
240
260
280
300
320
340
360
380
400
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
No. of vesselsN
o. o
f ves
sels
Fleet, End Year (LHS) Deliveries (RHS) Scrapping (RHS)
0.0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1.0
1.2
1.4
1.6
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
18
20
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
million G
Tmill
ion
GT
Fleet, End Year (LHS) Deliveries (RHS) Scrapping (RHS)
Historical Development of Cruise Fleet (No.) Historical Development of Cruise Fleet (GT)
Source: Clarksons Research, January 2016 Source: Clarksons Research, January 2016
www.clarksons.com 22
Average Age of the World Fleet
January 2016
Note (1): Includes all vessels in these categories above 100 GT.
Source: Clarksons Research, January 2016
Note (2): Average age is calculated using number of vessels. Calculations are based on year and month of build.
0
5
10
15
20
25
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
Aver
age
Age
Total Tanker Bulkcarrier Containership/MPP Gas Others
www.clarksons.com
• Construction Statistics• Freight Rates• Scrapping
January 2016 23
www.clarksons.com 24
Global Orderbook by Vessel Type
January 2016
23%
27%
18%
15%
2%1%
5%1% 8%
TankersBulkersContainer/ MultipurposeGasRoRo/PCCOther CargoCruise/FerryTugs/DredgersOffshore/Other
Note (1): Going forward, the orderbook will be influenced by delays, cancellations and the re-negotiation of contracts. Due to these technical and contractual issues, there is currently considerable uncertainty surrounding the orderbook. The figures quoted here relate to the orderbook as at January 1, 2016 and take no account for these potential delivery problems.
Source: Clarksons Research, January 2016
21%
30%
11%
7%
2%2%2%
9%
16%
Share of Orderbook (No.)
01020304050
Tank
ers
Bul
kers
Con
tain
er/
Mul
tipur
pose
Gas
RoR
o/PC
C
Oth
er C
argo
Cru
ise/
Ferr
y
Tugs
/Dre
dger
s
Offs
hore
/Oth
er
'000
CG
T
Share of Orderbook (million CGT)
Average CGT of Ship on Order
www.clarksons.com 25
Global Orderbook by Country/Region of Build
January 2016
36%
28%
21%
1%4%
7%2%1%0%
P.R. China
South Korea
Japan
Taiwan
Other Asia
Europe
Brazil
USA
Others
Note (1): Going forward, the orderbook will be influenced by delays, cancellations and the re-negotiation of contracts. Due to these technical and contractual issues, there is currently considerable uncertainty surrounding the orderbook. The figures quoted here relate to the orderbook as at January 1, 2016 and take no account for these potential delivery problems.
Source: Clarksons Research, January 2016
42%
15%
20%
0%
9%
9%2%1%2%
Share of Orderbook (No.)
0
10
20
30
40
P.R
. Chi
na
Sout
hK
orea
Japa
n
Taiw
an
Oth
er A
sia
Euro
pe
Bra
zil
USA
Oth
ers
'000
CG
T
Share of Orderbook (million CGT)
Average CGT of Ship on Order
www.clarksons.com 26
Orderbook Status by Vessel Type, January 2016
January 2016
m CGT Tankers Bulkers Container/ Multipurpose Gas RoRo/PCC Other
CargoCruise/Ferry
Tugs/Dredgers
Offshore/Other Total
Established <2000 13.3 18.0 10.5 13.2 1.8 0.5 3.7 0.5 4.7 66.1
Established 2000-10 7.8 9.3 6.7 2.8 0.8 0.3 0.8 0.3 1.8 30.7
Established >2010 3.5 2.8 2.4 0.9 0.2 0.07 1.1 0.2 1.3 12.4
Greenfield 0.1 0.04 0.04 0.02 0.04 0.02 0.5 0.8
TOTAL 24.8 30.1 19.6 16.9 2.7 0.9 5.7 1.0 8.3 110.0
Established <2000
54% 60% 53% 78% 66% 51% 65% 47% 57% 60%
Established 2000-10
32% 31% 34% 17% 28% 39% 15% 29% 21% 28%
Established >2010
14% 9% 12% 5% 6% 8% 20% 23% 16% 11%
Greenfield 0% 0% 0% 2% 1% 2% 6% 1%
TOTAL 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100%
Note (1): Going forward, the orderbook will be influenced by delays, cancellations and the re-negotiation of contracts. Due to these technical and contractual issues, there is currently considerable uncertainty surrounding the orderbook. The figures quoted here relate to the orderbook as at January 1, 2016 and take no account for these potential delivery problems.
Source: Clarksons Research, January 2016
www.clarksons.com 27
Orderbook by Country Yard Status, January 2016
January 2016
m. CGT Japan P.R. China South Korea Europe Others Total
Established <2000 16.2 17.3 23.5 5.5 3.6 66.1
Established 2000-10 2.7 17.3 6.5 1.2 2.5 30.2
Established >2010 4.2 5.1 0.5 1.5 1.5 12.9
Greenfield 0.0 0.2 0.0 0.1 0.5 0.8
TOTAL 23.1 40.0 30.5 8.2 8.2 110.0
Established <2000 70% 43% 77% 67% 44% 60%
Established 2000-10 12% 43% 21% 14% 31% 27%
Established >2010 18% 13% 2% 18% 19% 12%
Greenfield 0% 1% 0% 1% 6% 1%
TOTAL 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100%
Note (1): Going forward, the orderbook will be influenced by delays, cancellations and the re-negotiation of contracts. Due to these technical and contractual issues, there is currently considerable uncertainty surrounding the orderbook. The figures quoted here relate to the orderbook as at January 1, 2016 and take no account for these potential delivery problems.
Source: Clarksons Research, January 2016
www.clarksons.com 28
Value of Orderbook
January 2016
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
Japa
n
Sout
h K
orea
Taiw
an
P.R
. Chi
na
Oth
er A
sia
Euro
pe
Bra
zil
USA
Oth
ers
US$
bill
ion
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
Tank
ers
Bul
kers
Con
tain
er/
Mul
tipur
pose
Gas
RoR
o/PC
C
Oth
er C
argo
Cru
ise/
Ferr
y
Tugs
/Dre
dger
s
Offs
hore
/Oth
er
US$
bill
ion
Value of Newbuildings (by Vessel Type) Value of Newbuildings (by Country/Region of Build)
Total value of Newbuilding orderbook as at January 1, 2016: US$289.1 billion (at contracted values).
Source: Clarksons Research, January 2016 Source: Clarksons Research, January 2016
www.clarksons.com 29
Tanker Freight Rates
January 2016
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
'000
US$
/day
Average Earnings Weighted Average
Historical Tanker Earnings
● Average Earnings are estimated as daily timecharter equivalents (tce) for voyage freight rates, excluding waiting time, off-hire etc., and expressed in $ per day on the voyage.
● Average Earnings for each ship type are simple averages of the voyage earnings for that ship type.
Source: Clarksons Research, January 2016
www.clarksons.com 30
Bulkcarrier Freight Rates
January 2016
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
'000
US$
/day
Weighted Average
Historical Bulkcarrier Earnings
● Average Earnings are estimated as daily timecharter equivalents (tce) for voyage freight rates, excluding waiting time, off-hire etc., and expressed in $ per day on the voyage.
● Average Earnings for each ship type are simple averages of the voyage earnings for that ship type.
Source: Clarksons Research, January 2016
www.clarksons.com 31
Clarksea Index
January 2016
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
US$
‘000
/day
ClarkSea Index, January 2000-January 2016
Source: Clarksons Research, January 2016
• The Clarksea Index is a weighted average of earnings for all the main commercial vessel types, where the weighting is based on the number of vessels in each fleet sector.
• 1980s average: $8,500/day• 1990s average: $12,017/day• 2000-2008 average: $23,438/day
• Record highs before the economic downturn.
- December 14, 2007: $50,700/day.
• Severe correction as the economic downturn developed.
- 2009 average: $11,329/day.- April 10, 2009: $7,442/day.
• Rates in many markets have been at relatively low levels for the past few years though have recently been at their highest level since 2010.
- 2010 average: $15,488/day.- 2011 average: $12,310/day.- 2012 average: $9,575/day.- 2013 average: $10,263/day.- 2014 average: $11,743/day.- 2015 Average:$14,410/day.- January 8, 2016: $12,935/day.
www.clarksons.com 32
Tanker Asset Values
January 2016
Comparison between Tanker Newbuilding and Secondhand Prices
Source: Clarksons Research, January 2016
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
900
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
US$
per
DW
T
Average Newbuilding Price Average Secondhand Price
www.clarksons.com 33
Bulkcarrier Asset Values
January 2016
Comparison between Bulkcarrier Newbuilding and Secondhand Prices
Source: Clarksons Research, January 2016
0
200
400
600
800
1'000
1'200
1'400
1'600
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
US$
per
DW
T
Average Newbuilding Price Average Secondhand Price
www.clarksons.com 34
Newbuilding Prices
January 2016
Comparison between Average Newbuilding Prices
Source: Clarksons Research, January 2016
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
Inde
x (J
an-2
000
= 10
0)
VLCC Oil Tanker Capesize Bulk Carrier Panamax Containership
Note (1): The newbuilding prices are as recorded at the time (nominal) and have not been adjusted for inflation.
www.clarksons.com 35
Secondhand Prices
January 2016
Comparison between Average Secondhand Prices (5 Year Old Vessels)
Source: Clarksons Research, January 2016
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
Inde
x (J
an-2
000
= 10
0)
VLCC Oil Tanker Capesize Bulk Carrier Panamax Containership
Note (1): The secondhand prices are as recorded at the time (nominal) and have not been adjusted for inflation.
www.clarksons.com 36
Demolition Levels
January 2016
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
mill
ion
DW
T
0
200
400
600
800
1'000
1'200
1'400
1'600
1'800
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
No.
of V
esse
ls
Others Bulkcarriers Tankers
Historical Global Demolition Totals (No.) Historical Global Demolition Totals (DWT)
Source: Clarksons Research, January 2016 Source: Clarksons Research, January 2016
www.clarksons.com 37
Demolition Levels
January 2016
Demolition as % of Tanker and Bulkcarrier Fleets (in terms of DWT)
Source: Clarksons Research, January 2016
0%
1%
2%
3%
4%
5%
6%
7%
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
% o
f Fle
et
Tankers Bulkcarriers
www.clarksons.com 38
Demolition Prices
January 2016
Comparison between Average Tanker and Bulkcarrier Scrapping Prices
Source: Clarksons Research, January 2016
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
US$
per
LD
T
Tankers Indian Sub Continent Capesize/Panamax Indian Sub Continent
www.clarksons.com 39
Demolition Prices
January 2016
Comparison between Average Newbuilding and Scrap Prices
Source: Clarksons Research, January 2016
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
450
500
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
US$
per
LD
T
Scrapping Price Index (VLCC $/ldt) Newbuilding Index (VLCC $/DWT)
www.clarksons.com
Disclaimer
January 2016 40
The material and the information (including, without limitation, any future rates) contained herein (together, the "Information") are provided by Clarkson Research Services Limited ("Clarksons Research") for general information purposes. The Information is drawn from Clarksons Research's database and other sources. Clarksons Research advises that: (i) any Information extracted from Clarksons Research's database is derived from estimates or subjective judgments; (ii) any Information extracted from the databases of other maritime data collection agencies may differ from the Information extracted from Clarksons Research’s database; (iii ) whilst Clarksons Research has taken reasonable care in the compilation of the Information and believes it to be accurate and correct, data compilation is subject to limited audit and validation procedures and may accordingly contain errors; (iv) the provision of the Information does not obviate any need to make appropriate further enquiries; (v) the provision of the Information is not an endorsement of any commercial policies and/or any conclusions by Clarksons Research and its 'connected persons', and is not intended to recommend any decision by the recipient; (vi) shipping is a variable and cyclical business and any forecasting concerning it may not be accurate. The Information is provided on "as is" and “as available” basis. Clarksons Research and its ‘connected persons’ make no representations or warranties of any kind, express or implied about the completeness, accuracy, reliability, suitability or availability with respect to the Information. Any reliance placed on such Information is therefore strictly at the recipient's own risk.
This Information is confidential and is solely for the internal use of the recipient. Neither the whole nor any part of the Information may be disclosed to, or used or relied upon by, any other person or used for any other purpose without the prior written consent of Clarksons Research. Especially, the information is not to be used in any document for the purposes of raising finance whether by way of debt or equity. All intellectual property rights are fully reserved by Clarksons Research, its ‘connected persons’ and/or its licensors.
To the extent permitted by law, Clarksons Research and its ‘connected persons’ shall not be liable to the recipient or any third party for any loss, liability or damage, cost or expense including without limitation, direct, indirect, consequential loss or damage, any loss of profit, loss of use, loss of or interruption in business, loss of goodwill, loss of data arising out of, or in connection with, the use of and the reliance on the Information whether in contract, tort, negligence, bailment, breach of statutory duty or otherwise, even if foreseeable.
These exclusions do not apply to (i) death or personal injury caused by the negligence of Clarksons Research and its ‘connected persons’ or (ii) the liability of Clarksons Research and its ‘connected persons’ for fraud or fraudulent misrepresentation. In this disclaimer 'connected persons' means, in relation to Clarksons Research, its ultimate holding company, subsidiaries and subsidiary undertakings of its ultimate holding company and the respective shareholders, directors, officers, employees and agents of each of them. This disclaimer shall be governed by and construed in accordance with English law.
CLARKSON RESEARCH SERVICES LIMITED, COMMODITY QUAY, ST. KATHARINE DOCKS, LONDON, E1W 1BF