Download - ITS in the Year 2020 Pete Briglia Mark Hallenbeck Washington State Transportation Center (TRAC-UW)
ITS in the Year 2020
Pete Briglia
Mark Hallenbeck
Washington State Transportation Center
(TRAC-UW)
The Public Side of ITS
• Public sector sees ITS as a technical mechanism for improving– Congestion– Safety– Revenue collection– Traveler information (more satisfied travelers /
better travel decisions)– State and regional business climate
The Public Side of ITS
• Public sector is supportive of ITS deployment
HOWEVER
• Lack of financial support is expected to limit public sector ITS deployment
Public Funding Constraints
• Current revenue streams are insufficient to pay for;
– Required infrastructure maintenance
– Required infrastructure reconstruction
– Optimal roadway management
– Desired roadway expansion
Public Funding Constraints
• The general priorities of roadway agencies through 2020 and beyond will be:– Infrastructure (pavement, bridge) repair, – Reconstruction, and – Expansion
• Not ITS deploymentand operation
Public Sector ITS Deployment
• ITS will continue to be deployed
• Deployment will be made strategically, not universally
Public ITS Deployment
• The major ITS deployment will be revenue collection systems– Declining gas tax revenue means new revenue
sources will be implemented
• Unclear which technique will predominate by 2020– DSRC beacon based (major facilities only)– GPS + communications (e.g., VMT tolling)
DSRC Based Tolling
• Assumes fuel taxes remain– Most likely outcome - even by 2020– Associated with large, high volume roads
• Appropriate for paying for major projects of “limited” geographic scope– Limited access highways– Toll rings in urban areas
DSRC Based Tolling
• Integrating DSRC tolling into the vehicle itself has significant benefits
– Makes revenue collection easier / cheaper– Single bill for vehicle owner– Built in stolen vehicle/ID recognition– Can facilitate other services
GPS Based Tolling
• Alternative if fuel taxes are replaced– Less likely outcome by 2020– More privacy concerns / public resistance– Political inertia– Communications are an issue
• Cost of communications
• Technical choice of communications
• Geographic availability of communications and frequency of that communication
GPS Based Tolling
• Significant financial services opportunity – Privacy concerns best alleviated by using
private sector “trusted” service provider
– Multiple services possible– High potential revenue– High level of interaction with customers– But - potential for adverse customer reaction
GPS Based Tolling
• Bundling tolling with other services makes sense:– Toll collection / distribution– Fee for use insurance– Automatic crash notification– Concierge services – Maintenance alerts – Theft tracking – Door lock and unlock services, and – Interlock activation
Public Sector ITS DeploymentNon-Revenue Collection
• Will be performed in high priority areas
• Major urban areas
• Economically significant locations– High value/volume recreational locations– Commercial vehicle movement
Public Sector ITS Deployment
• High priority deployments – Congestion relief, capacity expansion
(operations management)– Safety – Traveler information– Severe storm management
• Snow (northern tier states)
• Hurricane evacuation planning (southern and eastern states)
Congestion Relief
• Strong public sector interest
• Active traffic management– Congestion pricing– HOT and other managed
lanes– Better traffic control
systems
Congestion Relief
• More difficult to sell politically than new capacity, because outcome is less visible– Tough to show that modest congestion from
today would have been 4-hour back up without ITS
• Need better roadway performance data to achieve operational improvements
Congestion Relief
• Willingness to consider automated vehicle controls– Likely implemented in limited right-of-way, special corridors
• Bus transit ways
• Freight (truck) only roads
– Could be expanded
• If implementation problems were solved
Congestion Relief
• Slow implementation of any major improvements
– Public sector infrastructure is slow to change (Transit Signal Priority project funded in 1991 still being tested - Snohomish, WA)
– Lack of funding
– Need to make new systems compatible with existing roadways
Safety• Very high public profile• Major emphasis (“Target Zero”) to eliminate
highway deaths– Still 40,000+ deaths each year
• Belief that benefits from most roadside engineering solutions have been exhausted
Safety: Despite High Profile
• Limited funding allocated to safety
• Safety often loses out to mobility– e.g., willing to remove shoulders to increase
capacity
• By 2020 - ITS roadside support implemented only in high profile, spot locations
Safety
• Roadside ITS safety features will NOT be ubiquitous in 2020
• Public sector will encourage in-vehicle safety improvements– Diagnostics– Driver assistance
• Curve, collision, & lane departure warning systems,
• Stability control, night vision
– Collision avoidance systems
Safety - Automated Enforcement• Significant potential improvements
– Speed enforcement
– Red light running
– Ignition interlocks
– Hours of service monitoring (commercial trucks)
• Issue: Public acceptance?
Public Acceptance?
• No blanket acceptance of automated enforcement
Yet
• History of red-light and speed enforcement cameras shows growing acceptance
Public Acceptance?
• Automated enforcement sold on a case-by-case basis
• Will require; – Obvious public benefits– Limited inconvenience to the public– Appearance of “fairness” to population– Checks and balances, right of appeal
• Expect gradual phase-in to and beyond 2020
Public Acceptance
• Expect widespread automated enforcement in 2020– But NOT ubiquitous – Including interlocks (impairment testing - for
some)– Unlikely to be mandatory
• Public will see the system as – Civil supplement to “criminal” enforcement– Control of previously demonstrated bad
behavior
Traveler Information
• Traveler information has– Strong public support– Strong public interest– Revenue potential (mostly advertising based -
and not much revenue for the public sector)
• Roadway performance data required for traveler information also required for active traffic management
Traveler Information
• Vehicle based information has great potential to– Reduce the cost of roadway performance data
collection– Improve the types of data collected
• (wet conditions, temperature, road friction, vehicle speed)
• Funding to make this happen is unclear
Severe Storm Management
• Systems currently in testing will be fully deployed by 2020
– Evacuation routing– Snow plow call out– Snow plow routing
Motorist Priorities
• Similar, but different from Public Sector
• Safety
• Travel convenience
• Counteracting the effects of aging
Motorist Priority - Safety
• Safety is not the #1 vehicle purchase criteria– Functionality of vehicle, price, performance,
etc., are – But it is important
Safety
• Larger vehicles traditionally perform better in vehicle crashes
• But other factors are pushing interest in buying smaller vehicles– Increasing fuel prices– Declining family size (aging population)– Increasing urbanization– Environmental consciousness
Safety Sells
• Ability to show a smaller vehicle is safe (or safer) than other is a selling point for car makers
• Allows consumer to have best of all worlds– Safety – Fuel efficiency– Environmental consciousness
Safety Sells
• Two major safety priorities for in-vehicle ITS
– Reduce the likelihood of an accident
– Reduce the effects when one occurs
Safety Sells
• Different ITS safety features sell to different markets, e.g.,– Parents of small children
• Back-up assistance
– Elderly drivers• Night vision assistance• Collision warning (side view)
– General• Collision warning (side view & queue detection)• Collision avoidance - (impact attenuation too?)• Run off the road warning• Hazard notification (black ice warning)
2020 ITS Safety Improvements
• All of those improvements can be performed using on-board sensors
• All can be enhanced by vehicle-to-vehicle communications
• Roadside sensors w/ communications likely to be a tertiary data source
Desired Motorist Experience 2020
Convenience is Key
Does my car make my life easier? Or more complicated?
2020 Motorist Experience
• Life is simplified– Paperwork handling
• Tolling (multiple toll authorities)– Buying other services - coffee, burgers
• Insurance handling
• Automated service notification (remote diagnostics)
• Concierge services
• Routing (when needed / desired)
• Carpool eligibility?
Motorist Experience
• Complexity of systems is hidden from driver/owner– Integration of systems is seamless– Subsystems are controlled (mostly) verbally
• O/D for routing• Simple tasks too
– Set clock– Set radio buttons, change music selections– Environmental controls
• While still adding functionality
Motorist Experience
• And allowing for flexibility– Ability to turn on/off features/services– Select how traveler information is provided
• Travel times
• Existence and location of incidents
• Routing directions
• Alternatives (if available)
– Desire to NOT pay for services• (25% of US households currently do not have cell
phone)
Motorist Experience
• Integrate vehicle with owner’s “outside life”– Cell phone accounts– External music accounts/choices– Business / personal accounts
• Allow purchase of goods/services to be connected to motorist’s financial accounts
• Charge different tolling accounts
– Vehicle ownership identification (to start vehicle), or optional passenger identification (for carpool pricing / formation)
Motorist Experience
• Driver distraction is a major issue, and one likely to grow in importance – as more in-vehicle services are provided
• ITS has the potential to– Make distraction worse (more stimuli)– Reduce distractions (better controls)– Reduce danger from distractions (warning
systems)
Our 2020 vision: Motorist Experience• The driver still (primarily) controls the vehicle• The car should make the driver’s life easier
– It provides information to the driver– Uses technology to reduce distractions – It warns of bad or distracted driving decisions– Assists the driver’s actions in avoiding accidents– Interacts, where possible, with roadside services – Gets most external input from vehicle-vehicle
communications or on-board sensors– Connected, bundled services ease customer’s
paperwork burden
Institutional Issues
• Federal influence is likely to decrease as the percentage of highway funds that are federally controlled decreases
• Federal role may become more of a facilitator of standards development / acceptance
Summary
• Roadway transportation changes in the last 100 years have been evolutionary, not revolutionary
• We do not see revolutionary change by 2020
Summary
• Public ITS deployment will be constrained by a lack of resources
• Thus, vehicle manufacturers should not count on extensive public VII infrastructure deployment– Only key services in key locations
Summary
• Most safety and service improvements must therefore come from the vehicle itself– This requires unprecedented integration of
currently independent systems
• Public sector will support, but is unlikely to lead these efforts– Unless a very clear public benefit emerges