The Bush Argument
1. Iraq has WMD: October 2002 NIE
2. Unfinished Business: 1998 Iraq Liberation Act
3. Spreading Democracy
4. Iraq and al-Qaeda?1. Senate Select Committee on Intelligence:
US Intelligence Community’s Prewar Intelligence on Iraq, July 2004 (page 32 and 304-370)
2. Levin Report, October 2004
3. Pentagon Report, August 2007
2002-2003 Bush 43 Makes the Case
• VP Cheney speech at VFW, August 2002; • UN Security Council Res. 1441 (11/02)• Congressional Authorization for Use of
Military Force Against Iraq, PL 107-243, 10/16/02
• National Security Adviser Rice, January 2003: “mushroom cloud” comment
• Secretary of State Colin Powell’s United Nations presentation on Iraqi WMD (February 2003)
US is Committed: Debates
Questions About the War:• Should we invade?• After the Saddam Hussein is gone?
• Troop Levels needed?
After the Saddam Hussein is gone?
Building Democracy:• Internal Issues
– Will this be like Japan and Germany after WWII
– Or Bosnia
After the Saddam Hussein is gone?
Regional Dynamics• Iran• Syria• Al-Qaeda in Iraq
March 19, 2003: US Invasion
April 9, 2003
May 1, 2003
But… Mission Complicated
Insurgency
• Ex-Ba’ath and ex-military
• Al-Qaeda in Iraq, 2004
• Kurdish Independence?
• Shiite militias (Iran?)– Moqtada al-Sadr
Political Developments?
Honest Attempts to Build Government
• Ethnic parties
• Religious parties
• Kurds vs. Sunni Arab vs. Shi’ite Arab
• Shi’ite vs. Shi’ite
• Sunni vs. Sunni
• OIL
Positive Political Developments
• 7/03 Interim Governing Council• 12/03 Saddam Hussein captured• 6/04 New government under PM Iyad Allawi takes
over• 1/05 Election of Transitional National Assembly• 8/05 Shiite and Kurds coalition writes constitution• 10/05 Constitution approved by referendum• 12/05 Legislature chosen under constitution
– Council of Representatives• 4/06 New government chosen by Council of
Representatives
Public Opinion of US Around the World
Source: Pew Global Attitudes Project report, “America's Image Slips, But Allies Share U.S. Concerns Over Iran, Hamas,” 6/13/06: http://pewglobal.org/reports/display.php?ReportID=252
Al-Qaeda after Invasion
• AQ in Iraq• Abu Musab al-Zarqawi• (killed June 2006)
• AQ after Iraq (Declassified April 2006 NIE)
US public opinion turns against the war
Source: Scott Keeter, Trends in Public Opinion about the War in Iraq, 2003-2007, March 2007: http://pewresearch.org/pubs/431/trends-in-
public-opinion-about-the-war-in-iraq-2003-2007
Bush 43 Approval Ratings
Questions
• How could the US have been so wrong about Iraq WMD?
• How could the US have been so wrong about aftermath?
• We’re there: what do we do?– The Bush surge– Iraq Study Group– Democratic candidates: Withdrawal Plans
Good News?
• Awakening Councils (summer 2006)
• US Army/USMC Counterinsurgency Manual (FM 3-24/MCWP 3-33.5)
General David Petraeus
The Result of Strategy ShiftFrom Measuring Stability and Security in Iraq, March 2008 DoD Report to Congress, p. 18