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INTERMARKET ANALYSISUSING EXCHANGE TRADED FUNDS IN ASSET ALLOCATION & PORTFOLIO MANAGEMENT
John J. Murphy Chief Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com
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Intermarket Changes
• The Deflation Scenario
• Bonds and Stocks Decoupled
• The Resurgence of Gold
• The Role of Oil
• Asset Allocation
• Economic Forecasting
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DOLLAR INDEX NEARS LONG-TERM CHART SUPPORT
December 30, 2004
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FALLING DOLLAR IS BULLISH FOR COMMODITIES
March 23, 2005
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GOLD AND THE DOLLAR ARE LINKEDMarch 23, 2005
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DOLLAR PULLS BACK FROM TOP OF TRADING RANGE
April 18, 2005
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EURO AND GOLD BOUNCE OFF 200 DAY LINES
April 18, 2005
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+$40 OIL COINCIDES WITH JP MORGAN TOP
April 1, 2005
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EXXON MOBIL RISES AS WALMART FALLS
April 1, 2005
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WHY NASDAQ LEADERSHIP
IS IMPORTANT October 1st, 2004
NASDAQ 100/S&P 500 Ratio
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Sector Rotations
• ▲CRB Favors Basic Materials, Cyclicals
• ▲Bonds Favor Financials and Housing
• Late Cycle = Energy and Staples
• Early Cycle = Tech. and Transports
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IT’S TIME FOR CONSUMER STAPLES TO START SHOWING LEADERSHIP –
THEY FOLLOW ENERGYDecember 14, 2004
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CONSUMER STAPLES AND ENERGY ARE TOP PERFORMERS FOR 2005 TECHNOLOGY IS THE WORST
January 19, 2005
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CONSUMER STAPLES SPDR TESTS 2004 HIGH
January 19, 2005
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FIRST QUARTER SECTOR RANKINGS PAINT NEGATIVE PICTURE
April 1, 2005
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RETAILERS LEAD MARKET LOWERApril 1, 2005
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CYCLICAL BREAKDOWN BAD FOR THE ECONOMY
April 14, 2005
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HEALTHCARE TAKES TOP SPOT IN APRILMay 2, 2005
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DRUG STOCKS GET BETTERMay 2, 2005
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OIL SERVICE INDEX UP AGAINST LONG TERM SUPPLY
April 27, 2005
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Intermarket Implications
• Post-Boom Decade: Not Good
• Paper ► Hard Assets
• Using ETFs For Asset Allocation
• Importance of Charts – The Big View
• TA + Economics + Fundamentals