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INQUINAMENTO ATMOSFERICO E CLIMAStefano Tibaldi
CMCC
Ringraziamenti:ARPAE (Carlo Cacciamani, Marco Deserti),
RER - Servizio Risanamento Atmosferico, Acustico e Elettromagnetico(Katia Raffaelli, Carmen Carbonara)
Inquinamento atmosferico outdoor e indoor: il ruolo del Chimico - Ravenna 17 maggio 2018
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Outline
1. Relazione tra meteo/clima e inquinamento atmosferico
2. Le tendenze dell’inquinamento atmosferico in E-R
3. Le tendenze del clima in E-R4. Quale futuro ?
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1. Relazione tra meteo/clima e inquinamento atmosferico
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Atmospheric composition
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1
21
310 (N2O)
--
GWP (20Y)
0,00003 (N2O)
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Inquinanti, aerosol e gas serra (esempi…)
• H2O• N2O• NO• NO2
• COV• CO• CO2
• SO2
• CH4
• FREON (CFCl3 , ….)• ……..
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Cambiamento climatico e
Qualitàdell’Aria
L’aumento dei gas serra ha determinato un aumento della temperatura media globale, cambiamenti della circolazione atmosferica a scala grande, delle precipitazioni e delle condizioni meteorologiche anche alle scale regionali e locali
La qualità dell’aria è sensibile alle condizioni meteorologiche. Mutate condizioni climatiche producono impatti sulla qualità dell’aria (ozono, particolato ecc..). Ad esempio più alte temperature modificano la cinetica del particolato, l’altezza del PBL e quindi la qualità dell’aria
CLIMATE CHANGE
AIR QUALITY
Naturalforcings
Long-livedgreenhouse gases
Emissions
?
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Fonte: Alice Gilliland, EPA, USA
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Come il Clima influenzala Qualità dell’aria
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THE CLIMATE SYSTEMTHE CLIMATE SYSTEMThe system can be divided into 5 essential componentsThe system can be divided into 5 essential components
ATMOSPHEREATMOSPHERE(THE GAS ENVELOPE
very fast)HYDROSPHEREHYDROSPHERE
(OCEANS, SEAS, LAKES, RIVERS,
both fast and slow)
CRYOSPHERECRYOSPHERE(SNOW, GLACIERS
AND LAND AND SEA ICE
both fast and slow)
BIOSPHEREBIOSPHERE(animal and vegetal world.
both fast and slow)
LITHOSPHERELITHOSPHERE(SOLID EARTH,
very slow)
The Sun is the only important (external) energy sourceThe Sun is the only important (external) energy source
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How is Climate Change Affecting Air Quality?
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Base time: Tue 15 May 2018 00 UTC Area: Europe850 hPa temperature / 500 hPa geopotential
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Esempi di interazione:
Aumento di temperatura (insolazione)..….aumento di ozono e particelle secondarie
Stabilità verticale atmosfera……………...influenza la capacità(riscaldamento ai bassi livelli) dell’atmosfera di
disperdere gli inquinanti> polveri sottili
Aumento di periodi di siccità………….....aumento delle polveri ingenerale
Aumento di frequenza di incendi………...aumento di particelle, ozono, monossido di carbonio, fuliggine
Cambiamento Climatico e Qualità dell’Aria
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Come la Qualità dell’aria influenza il Clima
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Climate Change Drivers
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Figure SPM.5 | Radiative forcing estimates in 2011 relative to 1750 and aggregated uncertainties for the main drivers of climate change. Values are global average radiative forcing (RF14), partitioned according to the emitted compounds or processes that result in a combination of drivers. The best estimates of the net radiative forcing are shown as black diamonds with corresponding uncertainty intervals; the numerical values are provided on the right of the figure, together with the confidence level in the net forcing (VH – very high, H – high, M –medium, L – low, VL –very low). Albedo forcing due to black carbon on snow and ice is included in the black carbon aerosol bar. Small forcings due to contrails (0.05 W m–2, including contrail induced cirrus), and HFCs, PFCs and SF6 (total 0.03 W m–2) are not shown. Concentration-based RFs for gases can be obtained by summing the like-coloured bars. Volcanic forcing is not included as its episodic nature makes is difficult to compare to other forcing mechanisms. Total anthropogenic radiative forcing is provided for three different years relative to 1750.
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EFFECTS OF AIR POLLUTANTS ON CLIMATE CHANGE
Hansen and Sato [2001]Global
Global radiative forcing is not the whole story, pollutants also affectregional and surface forcing regional climate changeclimate variables not quantified by radiative forcing (effect of aerosols on
precipitation, of ozone on stratospheric temperatures…)
Air pollution - related greenhouse forcing: 0.5 (O3) + 0.8 (BC) + 0.7 (CH4) = 2.0 W m-2…larger than CO2
Cooling from scattering anthropogenic aerosols: -1.3 (direct) – 1.0 (clouds) = -2.3 W m-2 …would cancel half the warming
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Come il controllo della qualità dell’aria (cioè della composizione chimica della nostra atmosfera)
influenza il clima
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2. Le tendenze dell’inquinamentoatmosferico in E-R
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PM10 fondo
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NO2
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Inquadramento del problema in E-RVariabilità inter-annuale dell’ozono
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007
Piacenza ParmaReggio Emilia ModenaBologna FerraraRavenna ForlìRimini
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ANDAMENTI MEDIE ANNUALI - REGIONE EMILIA-ROMAGNA
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008
ug/m
3
RANGE (MAX-MIN)Limitemediamedia stazioni Fondo Urbanomedia stazioni Fondo Residenzialemedia stazioni Traffico
Inquadramento del problema in E-RVariabilità interannuale del PM10
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La verità è che:
la variabilità inter-annuale èdominata dai fattori meteo-climatici
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3. Le tendenze del clima in E-R
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Monte Cimone CO2 - Data source Italian Air Force
CO2 never so high during the last million year or so!
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How much has climate changed in Italy?
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Cumulated precipitation anomaly in Northern Italy
Fonte: Ispra
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Climate Change in Emilia‐Romagna: Tmax and Tmin
Trend_Tmax=0.48°C/decade Trend_Tmin=0.27°C/decade
ARPAE Emilia‐Romagna
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Trend= ‐18mm/10 anni
Dati ARPA Emilia‐Romagna
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4. Quale futuro ?
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Accoppiamento modelli meteo-clima/modelli chimici
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La modellistica del clima: Modelli Globali (GCM) e Modelli Regionali (RCM)
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L’Europa e il bacino del Mediterraneo
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OZONO: 2030-2000
CLIMATE=solo climaCLE=legislazione attualeMFR=riduzione max fattibileSRES=scenario pessimistaRCP=scenario ottimista
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Ozono, Europa, 2005 >>> 2105, vari scenari
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CLIMATE CHANGE CLIMATE CHANGE (A2,B2 scenario in Emilia(A2,B2 scenario in Emilia--
Romagna)Romagna)
TminTmin,,TmaxTmax,Tmin10,,Tmin10,
Tmax90,Tmax90,FdFd,HWD,PAV,HWD,PAV
Canonical Correlation Canonical Correlation Analysis Analysis (CCA)(CCA)
Multivariate Multivariate regression based regression based
on CCAon CCA
LARGELARGE--SCALESCALE
NCEP NCEP reanalisysreanalisys
(Z500,MSLP,T850(Z500,MSLP,T850
19581958--20002000))
PREDICTORSPREDICTORS
LOCAL SCALELOCAL SCALE
Mean and extremeMean and extremeSeasonal indices fromSeasonal indices from
EmiliaEmilia--Romagna,1958Romagna,1958--20002000
PREDICTANDSPREDICTANDS
T850,Z500,MSLPT850,Z500,MSLPHadAM3P HadAM3P
((ctrctr--runrun, A2,B2, A2,B2))
PREDICTORSPREDICTORS
Scendiamo ancora di scale: la regionalizzazione a scala locale
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Emilia-Romagna: Cambiamenti climaticiin temperatura (°C)
(2070-2100 - 1960-1990)
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In sintesi: uno sguardo al (possibile) clima futuro dell’Emilia-Romagna
• Ulteriore aumento delle temperature, massime, minime e medie
• Aumento dell’intensità e della durata delle “ondate di calore” (Heat Waves)
• Diminuzione del numero di giorni di gelo• Lieve Diminuzione delle precipitazioni medie • Aumento della probabilità di periodi siccitosi
della durata di qualche anno
• Aumento degli episodi di picchi di Ozono• Aumento delle polveri connesse a meno
precipitazioni e più periodi di “stagnazione”
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PREPAIR: Progetto Life Integrato, circa 22 M€, di cui 12 da UE
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Questo è quanto,grazie dell’attenzione.