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Increased Storm Intensity due to Climate Change:
Marques MillerJordan Langworthy
TROPICAL STORMS AND HURRICANES
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What is climate change?Substantial increase in global temperatures over a long period of time.
•Greenhouse effect.•Ocean circulation
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Climate Change Predictions
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Tropical Storms and HurricanesHow are they formed?
•Warm ocean water•Low pressure systems
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Considering factors when assessing storm intensity and occurrence
•Frequency
•Storm Surge
•Wind speed
•Inland effect
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Frequency
PeriodBasin 1975-1989 1990-2004
Number Percent Number Percent
East Pacific 36 25 49 35West Pacific 85 25 116 41Northern Atlantic 16 20 25 25Southwest Pacific 10 12 22 28North Indian 1 8 7 25South Indian 23 18 50 34
Change in the number and percentage of hurricanes in categories 4 and 5 for the 15-year periods 1975–1989 and 1990–2004 for the different ocean basins.
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Storm Surge
• Definition• Effect• Factor of Influence• SLOSH
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/HAW2/english/surge/slosh4.gif
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Wind Speed
• ACEAccumulated Cyclone Energy
(ACE) = • Damage
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Inland Effect
• Inland cities • Topography• Flooding• Pressure release
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Is there a link?
Heat energy theory of cyclone intensity
Increased SST increases the energy input
into storm systems
Greenhouse gasses cause heat to be
trapped in the earth’s atmosphere
causing temperatures to
rise
Rising temperatures cause ocean
waters to increase in
temperature, thus storing heat energy
Heat energy from surface waters is
extracted from the ocean by storm
systems and transferred into
mechanical energy
The kinetic energy is then released by the storm through wind energy and
cloud/rain formation
One popular theory:
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Is there a link?
*2003 case study • Attempted to find a link
between tropical storm/hurricane intensity and sea surface temperatures.
• Results were inconclusive when looking to find a linear relationship.
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Is there a link?
• A report published in 2009 took a slightly different approach
• Analyzed “potential intensity”
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Additional suspected effects of climate change
•Melting of glaciers can cause the sea levels to rise
•Warm air can hold more moisture possibly affecting rainfall
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Human Cost
• Coastal Living• Money due to damage• Infrastructure effect• Prediction/Prevention
Impact of HurricanesKatrina Andrew Ivan Rita Wilma Dean
Insured Loss (millions of dollars)
45,000 22,274 11,684 10,000 10,000750 - 1,500
(est.) [1]
Total Loss (millions of dollars)
81,000 55,800 15,500 20,600 10,000 TBD
Date 8/05 8/92 9/04 9/05 10/05 8/07
Country US/Mexico
US Baham
as
US/Barbad
os
US, Mexico,
Cuba
US, Mexico, Jamaica, Haiti
US, Mexico, Jamaica
, Cayman Islands
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Sources• Cione, Joseph J., and Eric W. Uhlhorn "Sea Surface Temperature Variability in Hurricanes: Implications with
Respect to Intensity Change." Monthly Weather Review 131.8 (2003): 1783-1796. Academic Search Premier. EBSCO. Web. 5 Nov. 2009.
• Kossin, James P., and Suzana J. Camargo "Hurricane track variability and secular potential intensity trends." Climatic Change 97.1/2 (2009): 329-337. Academic Search Premier. EBSCO. Web. 5 Nov. 2009.
• Emanual, A Kerry “The Theory of Hurricanes.” Annual Reviews: Fluid Mechanics. 23 (1991) 179-196. Web. Nov 4 2009.
• Mann, Michael E., et al. "Atlantic hurricanes and climate over the past 1,500 years." Nature 460.7257 (2009): 880-883. Academic Search Premier. EBSCO. Web. 7 Nov. 2009.
• http://environment.nationalgeographic.com/environment/natural-disasters/super-storms.html• http://www.climate.org/topics/sea-level/index.html• Warren, Luke "Global Warming and Hurricanes." Mother Earth News 213 (2005): 22. Academic Search Premier.
EBSCO. Web. 8 Nov. 2009.• https://webfiles.colorado.edu/drewsc/www/hurricane/SeparatingTheACE.html• http://www.sciencemag.org/cgi/content/full/309/5742/1844