Improvement and Harmonization of Montenegro BSHAP Earthquake
Catalogue
MS Jadranka Mihaljevic, Civil Eng [email protected]
2 nd PROJECT WORKSHOP Belgrade, 25-26 April,2013
Improvements in theHarmonized Seismic Hazard Maps for the Western Balkan Countries
Improved Montenegro BSHAP Earthquake Catalogue, B. Glavatovic
• 1970-2012
• ML > 3.0
• *Covering area app. 10-15 km from
national borders
• Full catalogue
/ main event & cluster events/
*Polyline17.86 41.74 18.36 42.35 18.32 43.01 19.00 43.75 20.53 42.95 20.20 42.55 19.93 42.40 19.67 42.42 19.44 42.20 19.50 42.14 19.46 41.82 18.87 41.12 17.86 41.74
Earthquake data
• Month• Date• Hour• Minute• Sec
• Lat• Long (WGS, three decimal places)
• ML & Reporting Agency• Mw & Reporting Agency• Mw harmonized
NOTES:
* Intensity data not given* Mm data not given* Reporting agency PDG* (Automatic) Declustering procedure on polygon* Mw given acc to L. Duni, N. Kuka, Sh. Kuka, A. Fundo, 2010 “Towards a new seismic hazardassessment of Albania”, Proceedings of XIV ECEE Ohrid,
Macedonia, T1- paper No1894.
National catalogue data*delivered by the beginning of BSHAP project
Mw 3.0 + events since 1970* delivered for Improvements
Statistics on 1970-2012 M 3.0+ sub-catalogue: No of Events: 1008
No of Main events: 413 No of Cluster events*: 595
1970-2012 Mw 3+ Subcatalogue is relevant for the investigation of completeness of smaller magnitude classes, J. Mihaljevic
Completness of magnitude class 3.0 < Mw < 3. 5(Cumulative No of events vs Year)
Completness of magnitude class 3.5 < Mw < 4.0
Completness of magnitude class 4.0 < Mw < 4.5
Completness of magnitude class 4.5 < Mw < 5.0
Investigation of completeness of higher magnitude classes (sipmple addition of latest data to MSO +3.5 catalogue provided in July 2010)
Completness of magnitude class 5.0 < Mw < 5.5
Completness of magnitude class 5.5 < Mw < 6.0, 6.0 < Mw < 6.5, 6.5< Mw < 7.0
• Available earthquake catalogue BSHAP _E catalogue (M. Herak): - mo 3.0, mmax 7.4
- time span [-510, 2009] y.- declustered- no magnitude type unification.
• National Mne catalogue refers to 1440 A.D., while the neighboring Albanian and Croatian catalogues originate from times B.C.
• Data completeness to be investigated on extract/subcatalogue of BSHAP_E catalog for narrow Montenegro territory: This choice was set to preserve the rate of known large earthquakes for Montenegro itself. Shortcoming of method is that number of available earthquake data is smaller.
• Magnitude classes: 0.5 and 0.2 magnitude increment• Completeness investigated for each magnitude class
Previous Investigation on data completeness influence to final seismic hazard results, J. Mihaljevic
Class Range
Class complete
Years of compl. data
Normalization factor
N(M) in Y. compl.
Normalized N(M)
since till
7.1 7-7.2 1400 2008 608 1 2 26.9 6.8-7.0 1400 2008 608 1 2 26.7 6.6-6.8 1400 2008 608 1 1 16.5 6.4-6.6 1400 2008 608 1 0 06.3 6.2-6.4 1400 2008 608 1 1 16.1 6.0-6.2 1500 2008 508 1.196464 0 05.9 5.8-6.0 1550 2008 458 1.326797 4 5.3071885.7 5.6-5.8 1600 2008 408 1.488998 1 1.4889985.5 5.4-5.6 1750 2008 258 2.351351 2 4.7027025.3 5.2-5.4 1900 2008 108 5.587156 2 11.1743125.1 5.0-5.2 1900 2008 108 5.587156 3 16.7614684.9 4.8-5.0 1900 2008 108 5.587156 6 33.5229364.7 4.6-4.8 1915 2008 93 6.478723 13 84.2233994.5 4.4-4.6 1950 2008 58 10.32203 14 144.508424.3 4.2-4.4 1955 2008 53 11.27778 17 191.722264.1 4.0-4.2 1968 2008 40 14.85366 20 297.07323.9 3.8-4.0 1970 2008 38 15.61538 15 234.23073.7 3.6-3.8 1975 2008 33 17.91176 35 626.91163.5 3.4-3.6 1979 2008 29 20.3 40 8123.3 3.2-3.4 1979 2008 29 20.3 55 1116.53.1 3.0-3.2 1979 2008 29 20.3 110 2233
Recurrence rate: • Standard Gutenberg-Richter recurrence low
(b=0.89, Mu=7.2), applying standard MLE algorithm for the calculation of b,
• Using doubly truncated recurrence low, calculated by OHAZ program (b- value 0.952, the best data fit refers to Mu 7.5)
3 4 5 6 7
1E-006
1E-005
0.0001
0.001
0.01
0.1
1
10
3 4 5 6 7Magnitude, Mw
1E-006
1E-005
0.0001
0.001
0.01
0.1
1
10
Cum
ulat
ive
num
ber /
yea
r
Frequency-magnitude relationship for Influence area
Double-truncated exponential (b=0.952, m0=3.0, mu=7.5)
3 4 5 6 7
1E-006
1E-005
0.0001
0.001
0.01
0.1
1
10
3 4 5 6 7
1E-006
1E-005
0.0001
0.001
0.01
0.1
1
10
NATO SfP 984374 PROJECT Improvements in the Harmonized Seismic Hazard Maps for the Western Balkan
Countries Sensibility Analysis - Case Study Montenegro, J. Mihaljevic
Approach National - (a) Harmonized / Regional – (b) (c)
Catalogue BSHAP-E version ranging from 1440 A.D
More precise completeness level
BSHAP-E version ranging from -510 B.C.Not so uniform completeness over the region
Seismotectonic Precise for Mne,
General for the Influence areaPrecise and harmonized for the region
Sesimotectonic models:
(a) Montenegro case study,(b) Corresponding section of BSHAP seismoteconic model prepared for preliminary hazard assessment, Zagreb workshop( c) Corresponding section of BSHAP Final BSHAP sesmotectonic model.
(a) (b) ( c)
NATO SfP 984374 PROJECT Improvements in the Harmonized Seismic Hazard Maps for the Western
Balkan Countries Sensibility Analysis - Case Study Montenegro, J. Mihaljevic
NATO SfP 984374 PROJECT Improvements in the Harmonized Seismic Hazard Maps for the Western
Balkan Countries Sensibility Analysis - Case Study Montenegro, J. Mihaljevic
0.23 g
0.27 g
(a) Montenegro case study (T=475)
0.18 g
0.29 g
(b) Preliminary BSHAP results (T=475)
0.27 g
0.35 g
(c) Final BSHAP results (T=475)