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Immigration, Culture and Populist BacklashIs Canada Exceptional?
Keith BantingQueen’s International Institute on Social Policy
16-18 August 2017
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InternationalImage
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Sourcesofpopulistbacklashelsewhere• Economicinsecurity• Inequality,precariousemployment,economicanxiety
• Culturalinsecurity• Diversityandculturalchange• ‘Idon’trecognizemycountryanymore’
• Politicalincentives• Politicalincentivestomobilizeanti-immigrantbacklash
“Thegroundswellofsupportforpopulistsultimatelyreflectseconomicinsecurity,butitsimmediatecauseisabacklashagainstrapidculturalchange”(Inglehart andNorris,June2017).
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EconomicinsecurityinCanada?
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Inequality:Top1%inCanadaandU.S.
0
5
10
15
20
25
1900 1920 1940 1960 1980 2000 2020
Canada-Top1%incomeshareUnitedStates-Top1%incomeshare
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Driversofeconomicinsecurity• Growthof‘precarious’employment
• 1/3ofjobsarenon-standard;bitbelowOECDaverage• Riskofunstableincomes,unemployment• Lessaccesstobenefits,EI,training
• Pressuresonthemiddleclass• Polarizationandshrinkageofmiddle-incomeearners• Lowgrowthinaveragerealwages• Youngadults:loans,lowstartingincomes,delayedadulthood• Retirement:Inadequatesavingsamonglowermiddleclass• Personaleconomicsituationvsdirectionoftheeconomy
• IPSOSSurvey(May2017):weakeningofeconomicoptimism
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Public Attitudes:SenseofBeingMiddleClassEKOS2014
Howimportantarethefollowingaspectstoyourdefinitionofwhatitmeanstobemiddleclass?
Beingabletoretireonasecureincome
70%
Havingasecurejob 68%
Beingfinanciallysecure 68%
Wouldyoudescribeyou andyourhouseholdaspoor,workingclass,middleclass,orupperclass?%respondingmiddleclass
2002 68%
2014 47%
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PublicAttitudes:WeakeningofMiddleClassEKOS 2104
Movedahead,fallenbehind, orstayedthesameinthelast25years?
Movedahead CEOsoflargecompanies 89%
Banking/financialemployees 63%
Fallenbehind Manualcollarworkers 56%
Middleclass 70%
Causesofstagnationordeclineofthemiddleclass?Excessiveconcentration ofwealthattop 69%
Wageandincomestagnation 57%
Diminisheduniversalsocialprograms 39%
Reducedindividualandcorporatetaxes 34%
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Economicthreat?Theeconomicimpactofimmigrantsispositive,1985-2016
Focus Canada (2016)
93 98 00 02 03 05 06 08 10 11 12 15 16
Agree Disagree
56
39
80
16
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CulturalinsecurityinCanada?
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CulturalInsecurity?ImmigrationImmigrationlevelsaretoohigh,1977-2016
Focus Canada (2016)
77 80 83 86 87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 97 98 00 02 03 05 06 08 10 11 12 15 16
Agree Disagree
61
35
58
37
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Culturalinsecurity?CanadianvaluesToomanyimmigrantsdonotadoptCanadianvalues,1993-2016
Focus Canada (2016)
93 94 97 99 00 02 03 05 06 08 10 11 12 15 16
Agree Disagree
72
23
54
40
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How important is each of the following to being truly [American / Canadian]?
Percent
To have been born in [the US / Canada]
To have [American / Canadian] ancestry
To be Christian
US ROC Que US ROC Que US ROC Que
Very 40 34 37 29 21 24 35 20 10
Some 29 30 31 29 34 30 20 21 19
Not very
21 23 22 27 26 31 21 23 34
Not at all
10 14 9 14 19 14 24 35 37
CulturalInsecurity?CanadianIdentity
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Canadianattitudestodiversity
• Threeattitudinalclusters• Multiculturalenthusiasts• Conditionalmulticulturalists• CanadianwhoareuncomfortablewiththenewCanada
• Surveyofattitudestowardsmulticulturalismpolicies*• Recognition:symbolicaffirmationsofdiversity,fairnesstoimmigrants• Accommodation:roomfordifference(e.g.,exemptionsfromdresscodes)• Support:targetedbenefits(e.g.,grantstoethnicgroups;affirmativeaction)
*Seesupplementaryslidesfordetailsofsurveyresults.
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PoliticalIncentives:thePopulist’sParadox
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Clustersofattitudes:2015electionPro-immigration Anti-Immigration
Pro-trade
39%Lib:45%Con:36%NDP:36%
22%Lib:17%Con:32%NDP:17%
Anti-trade
19%Lib:22%Con:10%NDP:25%
20%Lib:17%Con:22%NDP:22%
Source:PeterLoewen, PresentationtotheCPSA,May2017.(CanadianElectionSurvey,2015)
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Populist’sParadox
• Electoralweightofimmigrantvotes• Highlevelofnaturalization;similarturnouttofullelectorate• Firstandsecondgenerationimmigrants:largeelectorate• Concentrationinelectorallysalientregions
• Electoralsystem• Barriertosmallerpartieswithdiffusesupport• Raiseslevelofdiscontentforbreakthrough
• Populist’sparadox• Needtoappealtobothimmigrantsandconservativebase
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PolicyImplications• Economicpolicy• Keyagenda:inclusiveeconomicgrowth• Legitimatebutcontroversialpolicylevers
• Immigrationpolicy• Protectingthedividebetweeneconomicinsecurityandimmigration• Temporaryforeignworkers• Secureborders
• Multiculturalpolicy• Importanceofpoliticaldiscourseandsymbolicpolitics• Creatingwaysforimmigrantstodemonstratetheircontributions
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SUPPLEMENTARYSLIDES
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PublicattitudestomulticulturalismpoliciesRecognition
Pass law declaring ethnic & cultural diversity to be fundamental to national identity
Ensuring schools teach about the role
of minorities & immigrants
Requiring that the media represent minorities fairly
US ROC Que US ROC Que US ROC Que
Str. support 18 14 15 26 27 15 30 26 13
Support 23 24 21 34 33 32 26 30 31
Neither 37 35 31 28 27 36 31 34 40
Oppose 11 13 17 7 8 8 7 7 9
Str. oppose 11 15 16 4 5 10 6 3 6
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PublicattitudestomulticulturalismpoliciesAccommodation
Allowing police & armed forces to wear religious
headgear while on duty
Allowing immigrants to keep their
citizenship after becoming citizens
Requiring public schools to offer
classes in immigrant language
US ROC Que US ROC Que US ROC Que
Str. support 8 10 3 12 16 10 8 5 3
Support 12 17 3 17 17 18 14 10 4
Neither 19 18 9 29 26 30 20 17 10
Oppose 19 17 18 16 16 17 20 25 23
Str. oppose 42 38 68 26 25 25 37 44 61
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PublicattitudestomulticulturalismpoliciesSupport
Requiring employers to make a special effort to
hire minorities & immigrants
Requiring employers to give special preference in
hiring minorities & immigrants
US ROC Que US ROC Que
Str. support 11 9 8 7 4 3
Support 22 21 24 12 13 8
Neither 32 33 39 25 23 25
Oppose 18 17 17 21 24 33
Str. oppose 17 20 12 35 36 31