Download - IEM –Integrated energy management
IEM – Integrated Energy Management
ENERGY SECTOR ANALYSIS 12TH FYP, INDIA.
BY KARAN R.TIBDEWAL
INTRODUCTION• 4th Largest consumer of Energy• Therefore to meet its demands• Grow domestic production
capability• Supplemented with imports• Imports Expensive. And getting
costlier.• Also related to Energy Security• Meeting GDP growth and also
energy efficiency – Major challenge
Demands Imports
Domestic Production
ENERGY INTENSITY• Is the energy input associated with
a unit of gross domestic product• Has been declining and will
continue• Implies growth in energy used <
growth of GDP -> Energy elasticity• Ratio of the growth of energy to
growth of GDP is less that unity. Elasticity has been declining over the years.
• Elasticity of commercial energy is > total primary energy because of the going shift from non – commercial to commercial energy
Period Energy Intensity (kgoe/US$)
1981 1.09
1991 0.99
2001 0.85
2011 0.62
GDP (+) How much energy ?
Therefore Household access to clean energy
ENERGY INTENSITY• National Mission on energy
Efficiency launched to improve efficiency.
• Lighting Efficiency – Using LED’s• Improvement in Energy Efficiency
• Reduced Energy Intensity of GDP
• Lower Elasticity of energy against GDP
• Elasticity may improve by 10% by 2017
s. No. Country Energy Intensity (kgoe)
1 UK 0.102
2 Germany 0.121
3 Japan 0.125
4 Brazil 0.134
5 USA 0.173
6 China 0.283
7 South Korea 0.189
8 India 0.191
EXPANDING ACCESS TO ENERGY
Access to cleaner energy for houselholds
(in 2004 – in 2010)
Rural 55 – 67.3
Urban 92 - 94
• Need to expand access to clean energy at affordable prices
• Village Electrification & Connection of rural households to electric supply- Rajiv Gandhi Vidyutikaran Yojana
• Supply of LPG - Critical
Although availability of electric supply still remains a problem
ENERGY DEMAND & SUPPLY• The demand for energy during the
Plan will increase as the economy grows and as access in rural areas expands
• The annual average growth rate of the total energy requirement is expected to accelerate from 5.1 per cent per year in the Eleventh Plan to 5.7 per cent per year in the Twelfth Plan and 5.4 per cent per year in the Thirteenth Plan.
• Demand for Non-commercial is expected to decline – increasing expansion and access to commercial energy
6.91% Commercial energy ( 5 years upto 2011)
2.6% Non - Commercial energy1.5%
Non - Commercial energy(next 10 years)
ENERGY DEMAND AND SUPPLY Share of each energy source in
total domestic production and also its share (including imports) in the total commercial energy consumption
Coal still remains the dominant energy source
Domestic Production is not expected to increase in the next 10 years
Although consumption increase from 50% - 57%
Share of oil – decline LPG increase from 8.5 – 13% The supply from renewables is
expected to increase rapidly from 24,503 MW by the end of the Eleventh Plan to 54,503 MW by the end of the Twelfth and 99,617 MW by the end of the Thirteenth although share still small
ENERGY DEMAND AND SUPPLY Renewable capacity increase Share still small Import dependence still increase Crude oil – main import Import dependence for coal, LNG
and crude oil taken together in the terminal year of the Twelfth Plan is likely to remain at the Eleventh Plan level of 36 per cent.
However, this assumes that we are able to realise projected domestic production levels of coal, petroleum and natural gas. If this is not achieved, the level of import dependence would increase further if the GDP growth rates projected are to be maintained.
ENERGY PRICING
Microeconomic Macroeconomic
• under-pricing energy to the consumer reduces the incentive to be energy-efficient
• Promotes leakage of subsidised products for
• sale in open market and also (in case of kerosene) adulteration.
• Underpricing to the producer reduces both the incentive and also the ability to invest in the sector, depressing production and increasing reliance on imports.
• obviously undermines energySecurity
• Misalignment leads to excessive import dependence with implications for the balance of payments, or if producers are sought to be insulated, it necessitates a subsidy, which places a burden on the budget.
• Economically important, also politically sensitive
• Rational energy prices – balance consumer energy demand with producer supply
• Energy prices should be aligned with the global energy prices, especially when large imports are involved
• Both microeconomic & macroeconomic problems
ENERGY SECURITY• Ensures uninterrupted energy
supply to support economic and commercial activities of the economy
• Imported Energy – lesser security
Domestic Production of
Coal
Stable & Attractive
Policy regime
Investment in
Renewables
Energy assets
investment abroad
Meet any disruption
in Oil Supply
Steps for better
security
Import dependent – more than 80%,Need for more storage capacity
POWER SECTOR• Addition to the Generation
Capacity of 76000 MW corresponding to – 9% GDP growth
• Share of private sector in the additional capacity – 53%
• 19% in 11th Year plan• Share of Power from non fossils –
will be increased
The projected capacity additionin non-fossil fuel plants covers addition of hydrocapacity of 1,0897 MW and nuclear capacity of5,300 MW. Besides this, 1,200 MW import of hydropower from Bhutan has also been considered. Inaddition, it is planned to add a grid interactiverenewable capacity addition of about 30,000 MWcomprising of 15,000 MW wind, 10,000 MW solar,2,100 small hydro, and the balance primarily frombio mass planned
POWER GENERATION
Power Generation
R&M of Hydroplants
Renovation & Modernisation and
Life extension of Thermal Power
Plants
Peaking Power & Reserve
Plants
Pollution & Ash Utilization
Expansion in transmission
System & Capacity
Creation of National Grid
• Projected growth rate in power generation – 9.8%
• Requirement of 1403 BU
POWER GENERATION
EVACUATION OF POWER FROM THE NORTH-EAST
• North East has a very high potential of Hydro
• Close to 50,000 MW• Pace of Implementation poor • Entire capacity to be evacuated
through a narrow strip of about 25km in West Bengal
• Land Acquisition problems• Number of hydro power plants
coming up in the region is expected to be spread, thus increasing cost of transmission
• Does not have adequate 132/220/400 KV systems in AP, Tripura, Manipur
• Distribution System is inadequate
POWER GENERATION
SEPERATION OF RURAL FEEDERS
An important initiative to improve the availability of power in the rural areas and have more effective management of power for the agriculture sectors where the requirements may be for limitedhours, has been to separate rural feeders for lighting and agriculture loads. This was initiated byGujarat utilities and has subsequently been taken up by Rajasthan, Andhra Pradesh, Haryana, Uttar Pradesh, Chhattisgarh, Madhya Pradesh, Karnataka, Maharashtra and a number of other States.
POWER GENERATION
MANAGEMENT OF ENERGY DEMAND & EFFECIENCY
• Efficiency of about 11,000 MW – through 11th FYP schemes
Management of Energy Demand
& Efficiency
Equipment & Appliances
In Industries
National Mission for Enhanced
Energy Efficiency
Efficiency in Transport
POLICY REFORMS Resolution of fuel supply Introduction of Open access Ancillary Power Market Effective Grid Management Spinning Reserves for Grid Stability Suitable incentives for low cost
transmission Increasing share of renewables Reforms in Distribution Sector Independent Oversight over
programmes like RGGYY.