© OECD/IEA 2017
IEA Technology Roadmap:
Delivering sustainable bioenergy
Adam Brown
ETIP Bioenergy, 11 April 2018
© IEA 2017
Roadmap launched
IEA Bioenergy Roadmap launched on 30 November 2017 at joint IEA and
Mission Innovation Event in Ottawa
• Technology Roadmap - Delivering Sustainable Bioenergy
www.iea.org/publications/freepublications/publication/technology-roadmap-on-bioenergy.html.
• Team effort!
© IEA 2017
The full portfolio of technologies is needed for decarbonisation
Delivering deep carbon emission reductions will require an unprecedented effort in technology innovation and diversification worldwide
Technology area contribution to global cumulative CO2 reductions
0 200 400Gt CO2 cumulative reductions in 2060
0
10
20
30
40
50
2014 2020 2030 2040 2050
GtC
O2
Efficiency 40%
Renewables 35%
Fuel switching 5%
Nuclear 6%
CCS 15%
Efficiency
40%
Renewables
35%
Fuel
switching 5%
Nuclear 6%
Efficiency 34%
Renewables 15%
Fuel switching 18%
Nuclear 1%
CCS 33%
2DS
RTS
B2DS
Global CO2 reductions by technology area
© IEA 2017
Bioenergy an essential component of IEA Low Carbon Scenarios
Bioenergy to provide some 17% of cumulative carbon savings to 2060 in the 2DS and around 22% of
additional cumulative reductions in the B2DS, including an important contribution from BECCS
Role of Bioenergy – RTS to B2DS Role of Bioenergy
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 2055 2060
Global Emissions GT CO2
2DS - Other technologies
2DS - Bioenergy
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 2055 2060
Global Emissions GT CO2
2DS - Other technologies
2DS - Bioenergy
B2DS - Other technologies
B2DS - Bioenergy
© IEA 2017
Strong acceleration needed between now and 2030
0
20
40
60
80
2015 2060
EJ Other
Electricity
Transport
Industry
0
20
40
60
80
2015 2030 2060
EJ Other
Electricity
Transport
Industry
Modern bioenergy in final energy consumption in 2DS
2X
3X
© IEA 2017
Modern bioenergy accounted for around half of renewables in final energy consumption in 2015, a
contribution five times greater than wind and solar PV combined. However, growth rates vary by sector.
Modern bioenergy in final energy consumption 2015 (left) and growth by sector 2008-15 (right)
Bioenergy is already a significant global energy source
0
100
200
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Sec
tor
grow
th (
inde
xed
2008
= 1
00)
Biofuels for transport Modern bioenergy for heat
Bioenergy for electricity
Modern bioenergy for heat Biofuels for transport
Bioenergy for electricity
Total: 17 EJ
© IEA 2017
Biofuels: an important option in a portfolio of transport solutions
While demand of transport services more than doubles , biofuels complement end-use efficiency and
strong growth in electricity, providing almost 30% of transport final energy demand in 2060
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 2055 2060
EJ
Hydrogen
Electricity
Biofuels
Other fossil
Fossil Jet Fuel
Fossil Diesel
Fossil Gasoline
Transport Fuels – 2DS
© IEA 2017
Advanced biofuels play a key role
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
2015 2025 2035 2045 2055
EJ Biojet
Biodiesel - advanced
Biodiesel - conventional
Biomethane
Ethanol - advanced
Ethanol - conventional
© IEA 2017
Electricity generation in 2DS
Bio-electricity grows 7-fold and goes from 2 to 7% of electricity generation
0
10 000
20 000
30 000
40 000
50 000
60 000
2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 2055 2060
TWh Biomass with CCS
Biomass
Other Renewables
Hydro
Nuclear
Natural gas
Coal
Oil
© IEA 2017
Four key actions
Need for appropriate policy frameworks
1. Promote short term deployment of mature options
2. Stimulate the development and deployment of new technologies
3. Deliver the necessary feedstock sustainably, backed by a supportive
sustainability governance system
4. Develop capacity and catalyse investment via a coordinated international
collaboration effort
© IEA 2017
• New technologies needed with good carbon performance and adapted to market roles in 2DS.
• Continued R,D and D to reduce costs and improve GHG performance of existing biofuels technologies
• Demonstrate reliable performance from existing “novel biofuels” plants
• Develop and demonstrate routes to diesel and biojet with improved costs, better C balances and GHG performance (link to RE H2 production)
• Identify potential and development paths for cost reduction
Stimulate development and deployment of new technologies
Some routes to new biofuels
© IEA 2017
Advanced biofuels cost reduction potential
Support costs to buy down costs c 100Bn$ - 0.5% of fossil fuel costs in transport
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030
Production(right axis)Novel biofuels costs
EJUSD/GJ
carbon costs
Costs can be reduced by
o the impact of R&D
o scale-up economies of scale
o experiential learning.
o scope for integration with other processes and leveraging/using
existing infrastructure
o adding value to co-and by-products
o Reducing financing costs
© IEA 2017
Deliver the necessary feedstock sustainably
• Deployment will need wastes, residues, forestry and energy crops
• Produced in line with sustainable resource management, forestry and agricultural
practice
• Produced with minimized impacts on land use change emissions by co-
production with food, use of under-productive land, improved production
• Supported by general effort to improve agricultural productivity and efficiency
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
MSW Residues Forestry operations Agriculture Total -Minimum Total Maximum
EJ
2DS/B2DS needs
© IEA 2017
What next?
• Influencing - Strategy for IEA Bioenergy
- Biofuture Platform
- MI Sustainable Bioenergy Challenge
• Follow up of key deployment indicators via IEA Clean Energy Progress Report…….
• Continued cooperation/coordination of international organisations - Potential for cost reduction for advanced biofuels
- Potential for bioenergy in industry (along with other renewables)
- Role of international aid agencies and lenders in bioenergy
- Expanded work on synergies between bioenergy and wider bioeconomy
- Identification of policy best practice for stimulation of sustainable bioenergy including novel biofuels
- Effective application of sustainability criteria for bioenergy, including for forestry based biomass.
© IEA 2017
Conclusions
• Sustainable bioenergy is an essential element in the portfolio of measures
needed for a low carbon scenario.
• Biofuels can play a particularly important role in the transport sectors.
• Advanced biofuels key to success – low emissions, use in aviation and shipping
• Progress is much slower than necessary so we need to:
- Expand deployment of existing technologies
- Commercialise the new technologies
- Develop sustainable supply chains and appropriate sustainability governance systems
- Build technical and regulatory capacity in a much wider range of countries and regions