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Competetiveness of Deepwater TechnologyGOT/FINEP/IBP Workshop, Rio Oil and Gas, 27 October 2016
IEA Global Technology Collaboration – Context & FocusJostein Dahl Karlsen
Chair, IEA Gas and Oil Technologies Collaboration Program, GOT
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Switzerland Norway Netherlands Spain 2015
2016
Founding members
conventional conventional
conventional
Unconventional unconventional
Conv.
Unconv
Conv.
Unconv.Unconv.
New members
TCPs
- IEA's new strategic labelling
Fatih Birol:"No quick fix to long term energy
challenges"IEA Global Request
- Share resources and accellerate results!
GOT and IEA's Technology Network
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Challenges
Climate Low oil price High cost level
We need more energy and
less emissions
The low oil price is affecting the
whole industry
In order to get the oil up, costs
must go down
Oil and Gas & Energy Context
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Policies and frameworks
Competence
Technology
Key GOT Dimensions – 1)
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Key GOT Dimensions cont. Innovation chains
SME's
R & D
Community
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GOT Global Technology Outreach
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Deepwater in oil and gas E & P
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Offshore & deepwater cost 2000 - 2014
Cost reductions
2015 -'16
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Global energy supply cost towards 2040 by source
Costs in 2040 for different energy sources/technologies, relative to 2014
-60%
-40%
-20%
0%20%
40%
60%
Solar PV Onshorewind
Efficient industrial heat production
Efficientlighting
Upstream oil and gas
Source: IEA WEO 2015
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Projected oil supply mix 2040
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Shale high case scenario based on industry expectations:
- Some four billion boe per year from the most expensive sourcesmight be outperformed by shale
Source: Rystad Energy UCube
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040
Onshore
Build-up
Plateau
Decline
Tail-end
Oil sands
Tight oilOffshore
Baseline production scenario: Global oil and gas production by source
Billion boe per year
1
2
History
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Next generation deepwater technology - a need for enhanced implementation woldwide
GOM
NCS
West
Africa
Brazil
Undiscovered volumes > 3000m:
44 bill. boe
0-150 meters
150-1500 meters
1500-3000 meters
11 % Need for new technology
Need for globalization
of existing technology
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Inte
gra
ted
Syste
ms A
pp
roach
Continuous
Project
Learnings
New Technology
Development &
Implementation- DW Drilling Technology- Tension Leg Platform - Semi, Spar, FPSO- Steel Risers- Subsea standardization- Flow Assurance
Co
st
Ind
ex
($10
00
/BE
QD
)
FID Year
18
16
14
12
10
8
6
4
2
0
AugerSchiehallon
(BP)
Ram-
Powell
Mars
Ursa
Brutus
Bonga
NaKika
Holstein
(BP)
Co
st
Ind
ex
($10
00
/BE
QD
)
FID Year
18
16
14
12
10
8
6
4
2
0
AugerSchiehallon
(BP)
Ram-
Powell
Mars
Ursa
Brutus
Bonga
NaKika
Holstein
(BP)
18
16
14
12
10
8
6
4
2
0
AugerSchiehallon
(BP)
Ram-
Powell
Mars
Ursa
Brutus
Bonga
NaKika
Holstein
(BP)
Co
st
Ind
ex
($10
00
/BE
QD
)
FID Year
18
16
14
12
10
8
6
4
2
0
AugerSchiehallon
(BP)
Ram-
Powell
Mars
Ursa
Brutus
Bonga
NaKika
Holstein
(BP)
18
16
14
12
10
8
6
4
2
0
AugerSchiehallon
(BP)
Ram-
Powell
Mars
Ursa
Brutus
Bonga
NaKika
Holstein
(BP)
Co
st
Ind
ex
($10
00
/BE
QD
)
FID Year
18
16
14
12
10
8
6
4
2
0
AugerSchiehallon
(BP)
Ram-
Powell
Mars
Ursa
Brutus
Bonga
NaKika
Holstein
(BP)
18
16
14
12
10
8
6
4
2
0
AugerSchiehallon
(BP)
Ram-
Powell
Mars
Ursa
Brutus
Bonga
NaKika
Holstein
(BP)
18
16
14
12
10
8
6
4
2
0
AugerSchiehallon
(BP)
Ram-
Powell
Mars
Ursa
Brutus
Bonga
NaKika
Holstein
(BP)
18
16
14
12
10
8
6
4
2
0
AugerSchiehallon
(BP)
Ram-
Powell
Mars
Ursa
Brutus
Bonga
NaKika
Holstein
(BP)
Source: Shell
….deliver world class project
performance and continuous
improvement.
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Petrobras deepwater legend
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Processing
Wellstream transfer > 200 km
Power Supply
Well Systems
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The combined value of advanced subsea technology
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Today's event
Topics
• Political perspectives
• Industry key notes
Topics
• Towards 30 USD
break-even cost
• The innovation
chain of the future
Panel Session:
- Transitional changes in the E & P Innovation Chain
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The vision - more than one part lifting ...
Thank you