How is Climate Changeimpacting British Columbia’s
Managed Forests?
Kristine WeeseResource Practices Branch
Ministry of Forests, Lands and Natural Resource Operations
Considerations for stakeholders in the Okanaganthat are adapting forest managementto climate change
OverviewOverview
• Context: climate change adaptation in BCContext: climate change adaptation in BC• FLNR science and policy efforts to dateFLNR science and policy efforts to date• Projected impacts to forest ecosystemsProjected impacts to forest ecosystems• Management issues & best practicesManagement issues & best practices• Barriers to adaptationBarriers to adaptation• Key messages for Okanagan stakeholdersKey messages for Okanagan stakeholders
2
3
Climate Change in BCClimate Change in BC
Climate Change Adaptation in BCClimate Change Adaptation in BC
Ministries – MFLRNO (lead), Min of EnvironmentKey initiatives – • Future Forest Ecosystems Initiative (2006-12) • Forest Stewardship Action Plan for CC Adaptation (2012→)Policy lever – primarily Forest and Range Practices Act
ADM, Resource StewardshipChief Forester
MFLNRO
ResearchCOP
Resource Practices
Branch
Tree Improvement
Branch
Forest Analysis& Inventory
Branch
Wildfire Mgmt Program
RangeBranch
MinistryofEnvironment
Climate Change Adaptation
Steering Committee
Competitiveness& Innovation
4
Research InitiativesResearch Initiatives• High resolution spatial climate dataHigh resolution spatial climate data• Modelling climate effects on trees, grasslands, Modelling climate effects on trees, grasslands,
disturbance, hydrology, biodiversity & wildlifedisturbance, hydrology, biodiversity & wildlife• Risk assessment & decision-support toolsRisk assessment & decision-support tools• Regional vulnerability assessmentsRegional vulnerability assessments• Climate change monitoring strategyClimate change monitoring strategy
5
PROVINCE-WIDE
01 Wiensczyk FRX
Disturbance decision-support
13 Redding FRX Watershed science synthesis
14 Spittlehouse Govt
High-resolution climate data
COASTAL
02 Brinkman-CTR
Northwest Skeena adaptation
06 deMontigny Govt
Red alder adaptation strategy
SOUTHERN INTERIOR
07 Fraser TRU Climate change & rangelands
08 Holt - Veridian
West Kootenay adaptation
09 Innes UBC Southern Selkirks resiliency
12 Nelson UBC Kamloops future forests
16 Winkler Govt Okanagan water supplies
CENTRAL INTERIOR
03 Chan-McLeod UBC
Quesnel TSA adaptation
04 Coxson UNBC Inland rainforests
05 DeLong Govt/UNBC
Forest ecosystem risk analysis
10 Krcmar UBC Uncertainty in adaptation
11 Morgan BVRC Multi-scale vulnerability
15 Summerville UNBC
Community planning
2
6 12
3&10
0707
11
4
4
168 9
(& 5)
5?
15
1, 13 & 14province-wide
FFESC PROJECTS DISTRIB
Policy InitiativesPolicy Initiatives
7
Topic Policy and Extension InitiativesPolicy guidance Climate-based seed transfer
Tree species selection and stocking[FRPA review]
Strategic planning Type 4 silviculture strategies[Review of NRS planning initiatives]
Monitoring Cumulative effects assessment frameworkIntegrated NRS monitoring framework
Building capacity Regional adaptation workshopsRegional extension notes
Climate change in BCClimate change in BC• Climate change Climate change is underwayis underway• Predicted to accelerate over this century:Predicted to accelerate over this century:
– Estimates: 1.8 to 4.0° temp increaseEstimates: 1.8 to 4.0° temp increase– Annual precipitation increase 6%Annual precipitation increase 6%– Decrease in snowpackDecrease in snowpack
• More More extreme weather extreme weather coming:coming:– Heat waves, heavy precipitation eventsHeat waves, heavy precipitation events– Southern BC: more droughtSouthern BC: more drought– Coast & mountains: more rain storms, windCoast & mountains: more rain storms, wind
8
Thompson-OkanaganThompson-Okanagan
Climate Variable* Season Average ChangeMean temp Annual +1.8%Precipitation Annual
SummerWinter
+6%-9%+7%
Snowfall WinterSpring
-11%-55%
Growing degree days Annual +319 degree daysFrost free days Annual +24 days
9
*By 2050s
Impacts: HydrologyImpacts: Hydrology
10
Winter Summer Storm impacts Streamflow
Temp Temp Frequency & magnitude
Snowmelt hybrid rain/snow driven
Precipitation Precipitation Landslides Rain on snow events
Rainfall Evaporative demand Avalanche Earlier freshet
Snowfall Plant transpiration Erosion Peak flow
Snowpack Moisture deficits Sedimentation Summer low flow
Snowline & north Stream/lake temp Big log jams Low flow period
Extreme weather Risk to salmon Channel stability Perennial stream intermittent*
Log supply (long term)
*Where snowmelt not stored in ground water
Impacts: DisturbanceImpacts: Disturbance
11
Agent CDF CWH MH ICH BG PP IDF SBPS MS SBS ESSF BWBS SWB AT
AbioticWind XX X X X X XX X XSnow/ice X X XFrost XAvalanche XX XMass movement XXFlooding XX XLow severity fire X X XMixed/high severity fire
XX XX XX XX XX XX XX XX XX XX XX
Drought X XBioticVertebrates X XBark beetles X X XX XX XX XX X XInsect defoliators X X XX X X X X XStem and needle disease
X X X X X
Root rot X X X X X X XStem rot X X XMistletoe X X X
Impacts: Forests, soils, Impacts: Forests, soils, wildlifewildlife
• Climate envelopes of tree species are shifting Climate envelopes of tree species are shifting upslope and north:upslope and north:– Shrinking: higher-elevation BEC zonesShrinking: higher-elevation BEC zones– Expanding: grasslands, dry forest ecosystems, ICHExpanding: grasslands, dry forest ecosystems, ICH
• Ecosystem shifts to warmer, drier extremes:Ecosystem shifts to warmer, drier extremes:– Reduced soil moisture, drought-induced mortalityReduced soil moisture, drought-induced mortality
• Extreme weather and disturbance = loss of Extreme weather and disturbance = loss of habitat and increased mortality for wildlifehabitat and increased mortality for wildlife
12
Adaptation StrategiesAdaptation Strategies1.1. Reduce risks to Reduce risks to forest ecosystemsforest ecosystems::
– Limit cumulative effectsLimit cumulative effects– Promote resilience (Promote resilience (diversitydiversity))– Assist migration (Assist migration (connectivity; climate-suitable tree speciesconnectivity; climate-suitable tree species))– Combat detrimental change (Combat detrimental change (manage disturbancemanage disturbance))
2.2. Reduce risks to Reduce risks to communitiescommunities::1.1.Monitor and detect undesirable changesMonitor and detect undesirable changes2.2.Help build community adaptive capacityHelp build community adaptive capacity3.3.Help build infrastructure capacityHelp build infrastructure capacity
13
Best PracticesBest Practices
7
Management issues Example best practices
Loss or degradation of old forest ecosystems, habitat
Maintain a connected network of reserves, corridors, focal species habitats, WTPs
Variable, potentially reduced timber supply
Control insects, disease & fire where possiblePreferentially harvest susceptible stands
Increased plantation failures Regenerate with diverse stands of climatically-suited species/stock
Reduced water quality Limit ECA to 30 to 50% of THLB
Potential infrastructure damage
Design roads & drainage structures to accommodate increased peak flowAvoid locating roads & cutblocks on unstable terrain
More Best PracticesMore Best Practices
15
Category Example best practicesHarvesting With warmer winters, adjust the timing of harvesting and
road works to minimize soil erosion and sedimentation
Regeneration Underplant with other tree species/genotypes where current regeneration or forest is at riskPlant drought-resistant species where drier soil moisture conditions are anticipated
Forest health Monitor forest health and free-to-grow surveys to track unusual occurrences so that prompt management action may be taken
Fire Use prescribed burning to reduce wildfire risks and forest vulnerability to insects & disease
Key Message Key Message from Scientistsfrom Scientists
““With the exception of assisted migration, With the exception of assisted migration, adaptation strategies are elements of adaptation strategies are elements of
ecosystem-based management that require ecosystem-based management that require broader applicationbroader application””
16
Barriers to AdaptationBarriers to Adaptation
17
Barrier Category Sub-category Importance rating
1. Lack of concern regional scale provincial scale
—XX
2. Lack of knowledge and expertise
basic biophysical knowledge inventory and monitoring operational trials
—X
XX3. Lack of planning
capacity
existing plans existing planning approach
XXXX
4. Lack of institutional support for change
economic disincentives restrictive legislation weak governance and limited
resources weak professional guidance
XXX
XXX
X
Key MessagesKey Messages
• Consider new and emerging science & policyConsider new and emerging science & policy• Utilize best (ecosystem-based) practicesUtilize best (ecosystem-based) practices• Experiment, monitor, adapt: operational trialsExperiment, monitor, adapt: operational trials• Share ideas/learning thru ‘COPs’ Share ideas/learning thru ‘COPs’ • Advocate government action:Advocate government action:
– Risk-sharing / enabling innovation / incentivesRisk-sharing / enabling innovation / incentives– Land use planning / monitoringLand use planning / monitoring– Supporting community adaptationSupporting community adaptation
18
ContactsContacts
• Kristine Weese, Resource Practices Branch, FLNR– [email protected]
• FFESC web site: http://www.for.gov.bc.ca/hfp/future_forests/council/
• FLNR Climate Change Adaptation web site: http://www.for.gov.bc.ca/het/climate/actionplan/index.htm
19