RutgersUniversity191RydersLaneNewBrunswick,NJ08901eagletonpoll.rutgers.edueagleton.poll@rutgers.edu848-932-8940
145WestHanoverStreetTrenton,NJ08618www.hcdnnj.org609-393-3752
HOUSINGAFFORDABILITYINNEWJERSEY
THEAFFORDABLEHOUSINGTRUSTFUNDANDCONCERNSOVERHOUSINGCOSTSINTHEGARDENSTATE
EagletonCenterforPublicInterestPolling
HousingandCommunityDevelopmentNetworkofNewJersey
AshleyKoning,PhDDirectorandAssistantResearchProfessor
StaciBergerPresidentandCEO
June2018
EAGLETONCENTERFORPUBLICINTERESTPOLLING|HOUSINGANDCOMMUNITYDEVELOPMENTNETWORKOFNEWJERSEY
2
TheEagletonCenterforPublicInterestPolling(ECPIP),homeoftheRutgers-EagletonPoll,was
establishedin1971.Nowcelebratingalmostfivedecadesandover200publicopinionpollson
thestateofNewJersey,ECPIPistheoldestandoneofthemostrespecteduniversity-basedstate
surveyresearchcentersintheUnitedStates.
Ourmissionistoprovidescientificallysound,non-partisaninformationaboutpublicopinion.
ECPIPconductsresearchforalllevelsofgovernmentandnonprofitorganizationswithapublic
interestmission,aswellascollegeanduniversity-basedresearchersandstaff.ECPIPmakesita
prioritytodesignopportunitiesforundergraduateandgraduatestudentstolearnhowtoread,
analyze,design,andadministerpolls.Weprideourselvesonintegrity,quality,andobjectivity.
ToreadmoreaboutECPIPandviewallofourpressreleasesandpublishedresearch,pleasevisit
ourwebsite:eagletonpoll.rutgers.edu.Youcanalsovisitourextensivedataarchive,blog,
Facebook,andTwitter.
EAGLETONCENTERFORPUBLICINTERESTPOLLING|HOUSINGANDCOMMUNITYDEVELOPMENTNETWORKOFNEWJERSEY
3
Since1989,theHousingandCommunityDevelopmentNetworkofNewJerseyhasworkedto
improvetheenvironmentfortheworkofcommunitydevelopmentcorporations(CDCs),andto
strengthentheircapacitytocreateaffordablehomesandrevitalizedistressedneighborhoods
throughoutNewJersey.
TheNetworkisastatewideassociationofover250non-profithousingandcommunity
developmentcorporations,individuals,professionalorganizations,andprominentNewJersey
corporationsthatsupportthecreationofhousingchoicesandeconomicopportunitiesforlow-
andmoderate-incomecommunityresidents.
TheNetworkanditsmembersshareacommitmenttopromotingeconomicjusticeandthe
empowermentoflow-incomeindividualsandcommunities,andencouragingwiderparticipation
intheframingandimplementationofpublicpolicies.WesupportourCDCmembersby
providingtargetedtechnicalassistanceandeducationalprograms,pursuingadditional
resourcesandimprovedpublicpolicies,andconductingresearchonwaystoenhancetheimpact
andeffectivenessofthecommunitydevelopmentsector.
EAGLETONCENTERFORPUBLICINTERESTPOLLING|HOUSINGANDCOMMUNITYDEVELOPMENTNETWORKOFNEWJERSEY
4
8in10wanttheAffordableHousingTrustFundtobeusedforitsoriginalintention
ItisnoquestionthatNewJerseyansacrosstheboardwanttheAffordableHousingTrustFund
tobeusedsolelyforbuildingaffordablehomes.Whentoldthatthisfundinghasbeenusedto
payforotherprogramsinthestatebudgetinrecentyearsinsteadofforitsoriginalintention,
79percentofresidentssayitshouldbeusedsolelyforthelatter.Just16percentfeelthestate
governmentshouldbeabletousethesefundsforotherpurposes,and5percentareunsure.
Usingthefundsfortheiroriginalintention
hasaboutthesamehighlevelofsupport
fromDemocrats,Independents,and
Republicans,alike.Seniorcitizens(89
percent)andthoselivinginthesouthern
regionofthestatenearPhiladelphia(90
percent)aremostlikelytowanttoseethe
fundsusedfortheiroriginalpurpose.
Residentswhofeelthecostofhousingin
NewJerseyisaseriousproblemaremorelikelytosayfundsshouldbeusedfortheiroriginal
intentionthanthosewhofeelhousingcostsarenotaseriousproblem.Asimilarpattern
emergesbetweenthosewhosayitisdifficulttofindreasonablypricedhousingversusthose
whosayitisnot.
Almost9in10thinkthecostofhousingisaseriousproblemandthatitisdifficulttofindreasonablypricedhousinginNewJersey
AlmostallresidentsbelievethecostofhousinginNewJerseyisaseriousproblemtosome
degree:51percentsayitisa“veryserious”problem,andanother35percentthinkitisa
EAGLETONCENTERFORPUBLICINTERESTPOLLING|HOUSINGANDCOMMUNITYDEVELOPMENTNETWORKOFNEWJERSEY
5
“somewhatserious”problem.Just12percentsaytheopposite,splitevenlybetweenwhetherit
is“notaveryserious”problemand“notaproblematall.”
Anoverwhelmingmajorityofeverysingledemographicgroupfeelsthatthecostofhousingisa
seriousissue,thoughtovaryingdegrees.Thoseinhouseholdsmaking$100,000ormore
annuallyareabitlesslikelytofeelitisa“veryseriousproblem”comparedtothosein
householdsmakingless.Residentsofurbanareas,ontheotherhand,areslightlymorelikely
thanthoseinotherregionstosaythathousingcostsarea“veryseriousproblem.”
HowdifficultNewJerseyansthinkitistofindreasonablypricedhousinginthestatefollowsa
similaroverallpattern:49percentfeelitis“verydifficult,”andanother38percentsayitis
“somewhatdifficult.”Just6percentsayitis“notverydifficult,”and3percentsayitis“not
difficultatall.”
Democratsareonlyslightlymorelikelytofeelthisway(90percentsay“very”or“somewhat
difficult”)thanIndependents(85percent)andRepublicans(83percent),butthesedifferences
arenotsignificant.Thereisasignificantandmarkeddifferencebygender,however:57percent
ofwomensayitis“verydifficult”tofindanaffordablehomeinthestate,comparedto40
EAGLETONCENTERFORPUBLICINTERESTPOLLING|HOUSINGANDCOMMUNITYDEVELOPMENTNETWORKOFNEWJERSEY
6
percentofmen.Middle-agedresidentsarealsomorelikelytofeelthatfindinganaffordable
homeis“verydifficult”thaneithertheiryoungeroroldercounterparts.
Non-whiteresidentsareabitmorelikelytoexpressdifficultythanwhiteresidents–52percent
versus46percentwhosay“verydifficult.”Thisdifferenceisdrivenespeciallybyblackresidents,
whoareaboutoneandahalftimesmorelikelythanwhiteresidentstosayitis“verydifficult”
tofindreasonablypricedhousing.
Thoseinhouseholdsmakinglessthan$50,000annuallyandresidentslivinginurbanareasare
morelikelythanvirtuallyanyotherdemographicgrouptosayfindingreasonablypricedhousing
is“verydifficult”(62percentand63percent,respectively).
Residentswhoseethecostofhousingasamoreseriousprobleminthestatearealsomore
likelythantheircounterpartstosayitisdifficulttofindreasonablypricedhousinghere.Those
moreworriedabouttheirownabilitytoaffordhousinginthenearfuturearesimilarlymore
likelytoperceivegreaterdifficultythanthosewhoarelessworriedabouttheirsituation.
Rentersarealsooneandahalftimesmorelikelytosayitis“verydifficult”tofindreasonably
pricedhousingthanowners(64percentto42percent).
Mostworrytosomeextentaboutbeingabletoaffordhousinginthenextthreetofiveyears
Aboutthree-quartersofresidentsworry“alot”
(44percent)or“some”(31percent)aboutbeing
abletoaffordhousinginNewJersey;24percent,
ontheotherhand,saythey“hardlyworryatall.”
Femaleresidentsworrymorethanmale
residents:79percentofwomensaytheyworry
EAGLETONCENTERFORPUBLICINTERESTPOLLING|HOUSINGANDCOMMUNITYDEVELOPMENTNETWORKOFNEWJERSEY
7
“alot”or“some”versus69percentofmen.Non-whiteresidentsarealsomorelikelythan
whiteresidentstoworrytosomeextent–84percentto70percent.
Concerndropssignificantlyamongseniorcitizenscomparedtootheragegroups:aboutsixin10
residents65yearsorolderexpresssomeworry,comparedtoeightin10amongtheiryounger
counterparts.Thoselivinginurbanareasarethemostworried(82percentsay“alot”or
“some”),whileresidentsinexurbanareasandinthesouthernpartofthestateareleast
worried(67percentand70percent,respectively).Worrydeclinesasincomerises.
Thosewhobelievehousingcostsareaprobleminthestatearemorelikelytoworrythanthose
whofeeltheproblemis“notveryserious”or“notaproblematall.”Similarly,residentswho
sayitisdifficulttofindreasonablypricedhousingworrymorethanthosewhosayitisnot
difficult.Residentsmoreconcernedabouttheirmonthlyhousingcostsarealsomoreworried
thantheircounterparts.Rentersaresignificantlymoreworriedthanthosewhoownproperty:
amongrenters,55percentworry“alot”and32percentworry“some,”comparedto38percent
and31percent,respectively,amonghomeowners.
Nevertheless,two-thirdsfeeltheirmonthlyhousingcostsareatleast“somewhat”affordable
Whenitcomestotheirownfinancialsituation,14percentsaytheirmonthlyhousingcostsare
“veryaffordable,”andanother49percentsaytheyare“somewhataffordable.”Overathird,on
theotherhand,feeltheircostsareeither“notveryaffordable”(24percent)or“notaffordable
atall”(11percent).Thissentimentdoesnotfluctuatemuchbetweenvariouskeydemographic
groups.Seniorcitizens(76percent),urbanresidents(70percent),andexurbanresidents(72
percent)arethemostlikelytosaytheircostsareatleast“somewhataffordable.”Thosewhodo
notseethecostofhousingasaseriousproblemaremorelikelytosaytheirmonthlycostsare
affordablecomparedtothosewhobelievethatthecostofhousingisaseriousissue.
EAGLETONCENTERFORPUBLICINTERESTPOLLING|HOUSINGANDCOMMUNITYDEVELOPMENTNETWORKOFNEWJERSEY
8
MostNewJerseyansarehomeowners,butkeydemographicdifferencespersist
Sixty-sevenpercentofNewJerseyanssaythattheyownahouse,while8percentrentahouse.
Seventeenpercentrentanapartment,andanother3percentrentaroominahouseor
apartment.Fivepercentlivewitharelativeorfriendrent-free.
Therearesomekeydemographicdisparitiesinhomeownership.Whiteresidentsarealmost
twiceaslikelytoownahouseasnon-whiteresidents(81percentversus45percent),whoare
morelikelytoinsteadrentanapartment(28percentversus9percent)orhouse(13percent
versus5percent).Youngerresidentsarealsolesslikelytoownandmorelikelytorent;eightin
10residentsover50yearsold,ontheotherhand,ownahouse.
Homeownershipriseswithincome:thoseinthehighestincomebracketarealmostthreetimes
aslikelyasthoseinthelowestincomebrackettosaytheyownahouse(89percentversus33
percent).Residentslivinginurbanareasarelesslikelytoownahousethanthoselivinginother
areasofthestateandare,inturn,morelikelytorent.
EAGLETONCENTERFORPUBLICINTERESTPOLLING|HOUSINGANDCOMMUNITYDEVELOPMENTNETWORKOFNEWJERSEY
9
EAGLETONCENTERFORPUBLICINTERESTPOLLING|HOUSINGANDCOMMUNITYDEVELOPMENTNETWORKOFNEWJERSEY
QuestionsandTablesThequestionscoveredinthisreleasearelistedbelow.Columnpercentagesmaynotaddto100%duetorounding.RespondentsareNewJerseyadults;allpercentagesareofweightedresults.Interpretgroupswithsamplessizesunder100withcaution.Q. Whatisyourcurrenthousingsituation?Doyou,ordoestheheadofyourhousehold,currently:Ownahouse 67%Rentahouse 8%Rentanapartment 17%Rentroomsinhouse/apartment 3%Livewithrelative/friendforfree 5%UnwghtN= 703
PartyID Gender Race Age Income
Dem Ind Rep Male Female WhiteNon-wht. 18-34 35-49 50-64 65+ <$50K
$50K-<$100K
$100K-<$150K $150K+
Ownahouse 63% 64% 77% 68% 66% 81% 45% 40% 67% 80% 83% 33% 68% 84% 89%Rentahouse 11% 8% 5% 6% 11% 5% 13% 11% 11% 7% 3% 18% 11% 3% 1%Rentanapartment 17% 19% 14% 17% 17% 9% 28% 27% 19% 12% 7% 38% 12% 8% 7%Rentroomsinhouse/apartment 4% 2% 0% 3% 2% 1% 6% 3% 3% 1% 4% 6% 2% 0% 2%Livewithrelative/friendfree 5% 7% 4% 6% 5% 4% 7% 19% 0% 0% 2% 6% 7% 4% 2%UnwghtN= 260 282 140 354 349 455 221 172 134 217 180 138 225 113 141
Region
Urban Suburb Exurban Phil/South ShoreOwnahouse 47% 69% 71% 68% 74%Rentahouse 8% 5% 7% 14% 10%Rentanapartment 32% 19% 15% 9% 8%Rentroomsinhouse/apartment 7% 1% 1% 5% 2%Livewithrelative/friendfree 5% 6% 6% 4% 5%UnwtN= 97 256 102 105 143
EAGLETONCENTERFORPUBLICINTERESTPOLLING|HOUSINGANDCOMMUNITYDEVELOPMENTNETWORKOFNEWJERSEY
11
Q. Thinkingaboutthestateasawhole,doyouthinkthecostofhousinginNewJerseyisaveryseriousproblem,asomewhat seriousproblem,notaveryseriousproblem,orisitnotaproblematall?Veryserious 51%Somewhatserious 35%Notveryserious 6%Notaproblematall 6%Don’tknow(vol) 1%UnwghtN= 704
PartyID Gender Race Age Income
Dem Ind Rep Male Female WhiteNon-wht. 18-34 35-49 50-64 65+ <$50K
$50K-<$100K
$100K-<$150K $150K+
Veryserious 50% 52% 48% 47% 55% 50% 53% 51% 53% 54% 45% 55% 56% 47% 43%Somewhatserious 39% 32% 36% 36% 35% 36% 35% 35% 36% 30% 42% 34% 31% 43% 39%Notveryserious 6% 8% 6% 8% 5% 7% 7% 6% 5% 7% 7% 8% 4% 4% 12%Notaproblematall 5% 6% 8% 8% 4% 7% 4% 4% 6% 9% 4% 3% 8% 5% 6%Don’tknow(vol) 1% 2% 2% 1% 2% 1% 2% 4% 0% 0% 2% 1% 1% 0% 0%UnwghtN= 260 283 140 354 350 455 222 172 134 218 180 138 225 113 141
Region HousingSituation
Urban Suburb Exurban Phil/South Shore Own RentVeryserious 56% 50% 51% 46% 52% 47% 60%Somewhatserious 31% 41% 35% 34% 29% 38% 30%Notveryserious 3% 6% 4% 15% 6% 6% 7%Notaproblematall 8% 3% 8% 5% 9% 7% 2%Don’tknow(vol) 2% 0% 1% 0% 4% 1% 2%UnwtN= 97 256 102 105 144 511 157
EAGLETONCENTERFORPUBLICINTERESTPOLLING|HOUSINGANDCOMMUNITYDEVELOPMENTNETWORKOFNEWJERSEY
12
Q. HowdifficultdoyouthinkitisittofindreasonablypricedhousinginNewJersey?Verydifficult,somewhatdifficult,not verydifficult,ornotdifficultatall?Verydifficult 49%Somewhatdifficult 38%Notverydifficult 6%Notdifficultatall 3%Don’tknow(vol) 3%UnwghtN= 703
PartyID Gender Race Age Income
Dem Ind Rep Male Female WhiteNon-wht. 18-34 35-49 50-64 65+ <$50K
$50K-<$100K
$100K-<$150K $150K+
Verydifficult 48% 50% 45% 40% 57% 46% 52% 49% 55% 50% 39% 62% 52% 37% 40%Somewhatdifficult 42% 35% 38% 42% 34% 39% 38% 37% 35% 38% 45% 25% 35% 47% 47%Notverydifficult 5% 6% 10% 9% 4% 8% 5% 5% 5% 10% 6% 4% 8% 6% 9%Notdifficultatall 2% 5% 3% 4% 3% 3% 3% 5% 3% 2% 5% 2% 3% 6% 3%Don’tknow(vol) 2% 4% 4% 4% 2% 4% 2% 4% 3% 1% 4% 5% 1% 3% 1%UnwghtN= 260 283 140 354 349 454 222 172 134 217 180 137 225 113 141
Region HousingSituation
Urban Suburb Exurban Phil/South Shore Own RentVerydifficult 63% 49% 44% 44% 44% 42% 64%Somewhatdifficult 25% 40% 46% 38% 40% 43% 27%Notverydifficult 5% 7% 5% 8% 7% 8% 3%Notdifficultatall 0% 3% 3% 5% 6% 4% 2%Don’tknow(vol) 7% 2% 2% 4% 3% 3% 3%UnwtN= 97 255 102 105 144 510 157
EAGLETONCENTERFORPUBLICINTERESTPOLLING|HOUSINGANDCOMMUNITYDEVELOPMENTNETWORKOFNEWJERSEY
13
Q. Howaffordabledoyoufeelyourmonthlyhousingcostsare?Veryaffordable,somewhataffordable,notveryaffordable, ornotatallaffordable? May2018 Trend:Feb1995Veryaffordable 14% 22%Somewhataffordable 49% 52%Notveryaffordable 24% 18%Notatallaffordable 11% 4%Don’tknow(vol) 2% 3%UnwghtN= 702 801
PartyID Gender Race Age Income
Dem Ind Rep Male Female WhiteNon-wht. 18-34 35-49 50-64 65+ <$50K
$50K-<$100K
$100K-<$150K $150K+
Veryaffordable 18% 13% 10% 11% 16% 16% 12% 10% 13% 13% 21% 15% 14% 10% 14%Somewhataffordable 51% 44% 53% 51% 47% 48% 49% 51% 45% 45% 55% 44% 51% 52% 50%Notveryaffordable 22% 28% 19% 23% 26% 23% 26% 26% 33% 24% 10% 26% 25% 27% 25%Notatallaffordable 6% 12% 14% 12% 10% 10% 11% 7% 9% 16% 11% 14% 9% 10% 7%Don’tknow(vol) 2% 2% 4% 3% 2% 3% 1% 6% 0% 1% 3% 2% 1% 1% 3%UnwghtN= 259 283 139 353 349 453 222 172 134 218 178 138 225 112 141
Region HousingSituation
Urban Suburb Exurban Phil/South Shore Own RentVeryaffordable 18% 13% 16% 10% 14% 13% 16%Somewhataffordable 52% 45% 56% 43% 50% 52% 44%Notveryaffordable 18% 25% 23% 33% 23% 24% 26%Notatallaffordable 11% 13% 4% 12% 10% 10% 13%Don’tknow(vol) 1% 3% 1% 2% 3% 1% 1%UnwghtN= 97 255 102 105 143 509 157
EAGLETONCENTERFORPUBLICINTERESTPOLLING|HOUSINGANDCOMMUNITYDEVELOPMENTNETWORKOFNEWJERSEY
14
Q. Inthenextthreetofiveyears,howmuchdoyouworryaboutbeingabletoaffordhousinginNewJersey?Alot,some,or hardlyatall? May2018 Trend:Nov1999*Alot 44% 20%Some 31% 28%Hardlyatall 24% 51%Don’tknow(vol) 1% 1%UnwghtN= 702 802*Differentquestionwording:“Differentpeoplehavedifferentconcernsastheylookaheadoverthenext10yearsorso.Pleasetellmeifyoupersonallyworryabouteachofthefollowingalot,some,orhardlyatall.First(RANDOMIZE)...Doyouworryaboutbeingabletoafforddecenthousingalot,some,orhardlyatall?”
PartyID Gender Race Age Income
Dem Ind Rep Male Female WhiteNon-wht. 18-34 35-49 50-64 65+ <$50K
$50K-<$100K
$100K-<$150K $150K+
Alot 44% 41% 49% 40% 47% 41% 48% 50% 40% 49% 33% 57% 48% 40% 33%Some 31% 35% 23% 29% 32% 28% 35% 30% 38% 29% 24% 25% 33% 34% 29%Hardlyatall 25% 23% 26% 30% 19% 30% 16% 18% 22% 22% 41% 16% 19% 26% 38%Don’tknow(vol) 0% 1% 3% 1% 1% 1% 1% 2% 0% 0% 3% 1% 0% 0% 0%UnwghtN= 259 283 139 353 349 453 222 172 134 217 179 138 225 113 141
Region HousingSituation
Urban Suburb Exurban Phil/South Shore Own RentAlot 55% 47% 34% 35% 43% 38% 55%Some 27% 32% 33% 35% 28% 31% 32%Hardlyatall 17% 21% 33% 30% 26% 30% 13%Don’tknow(vol) 1% 0% 1% 0% 4% 1% 0%UnwghtN= 97 254 102 105 144 509 157
EAGLETONCENTERFORPUBLICINTERESTPOLLING|HOUSINGANDCOMMUNITYDEVELOPMENTNETWORKOFNEWJERSEY
15
Q. WhenpropertiesinNewJerseyaresold,asmallfeeissetasidetopayforthecreationofaffordablehomes,butinrecent years,thisfundinghasbeenusedtopayforotherprogramsinthestatebudgetinstead.Doyouthinkthestate governmentshould[ROTATE:usethesefundssolelyfortheiroriginalintentionofbuildingaffordablehomes],or[beable tousethesefundstopayforotherprogramsinthebudget]?Originalintention 79%Otherprograms 16%Don’tknow(vol) 5%UnwghtN= 693
PartyID Gender Race Age Income
Dem Ind Rep Male Female WhiteNon-wht. 18-34 35-49 50-64 65+ <$50K
$50K-<$100K
$100K-<$150K $150K+
OriginalIntention 82% 78% 77% 76% 82% 83% 77% 78% 74% 79% 89% 83% 79% 85% 71%Otherprograms 16% 14% 18% 18% 13% 13% 19% 18% 19% 17% 8% 13% 17% 9% 23%Don’tknow(vol) 2% 7% 5% 5% 5% 4% 5% 5% 8% 4% 3% 4% 3% 7% 5%UnwghtN= 259 278 137 346 347 448 219 171 132 213 177 136 222 112 137
Region HousingSituation
Urban Suburb Exurban Phil/South Shore Own RentOriginalintention 81% 77% 72% 90% 80% 79% 79%Otherprograms 13% 19% 17% 9% 16% 16% 16%Don’tknow(vol) 6% 5% 10% 1% 4% 5% 5%UnwghtN= 97 252 99 105 140 501 156
EAGLETONCENTERFORPUBLICINTERESTPOLLING|HOUSINGANDCOMMUNITYDEVELOPMENTNETWORKOFNEWJERSEY
Methodology
TheRutgers-EagletonPollwasconductedbytelephoneusinglivecallersApril26toMay4,2018
withascientificallyselectedrandomsampleof704NewJerseyadults,18orolder.Persons
withoutatelephonecouldnotbeincludedintherandomselectionprocess.Respondents
withinahouseholdareselectedbyaskingrandomlyfortheyoungestadultmaleorfemale
currentlyavailable.Ifthenamedgenderisnotavailable,theyoungestadultoftheothergender
isinterviewed.ThepollwasavailableinSpanishforrespondentswhorequestedit.This
telephonepollincluded315landlineand389cellphoneadults,allacquiredthroughrandom
digitdialing.Distributionofhouseholdphoneuseinthissampleis:
CellOnly: 31%
DualUse,ReachedonCell: 24%
DualUse,ReachedonLL: 42%
LandlineOnly: 3%
ThedatawereweightedtoberepresentativeofNewJerseyadults.Theweightingbalanced
sampledemographicstopopulationparameters.Thesampleisbalancedtomatchparameters
forsex,age,education,race/ethnicity,region,andphoneuse.Thesex,age,educationand
race/ethnicityparameterswerederivedfrom2016AmericanCommunitySurveyPUMSdata.
Theregionparameterwasderivedfrom2011-2015AmericanCommunitySurvey5-Year
Estimatesbasedontotalpopulation.Thephoneuseparameterderivedfromestimates
providedbytheNationalHealthInterviewSurveyEarlyReleaseProgram.Weightingwasdone
intwostages.Thefirststageofweightingcorrectedfordifferentprobabilitiesofselection
associatedwiththenumberofadultsineachhouseholdandeachrespondent’stelephone
usagepatterns.Thisweightingalsoadjustsfortheoverlappinglandlineandcellsampleframes
andtherelativesizesofeachframeandeachsample.Thesecondstageofweightingbalanced
sampledemographicstomatchtargetpopulationparameters.Weightsweretrimmedatthe3rd
and97thpercentiletopreventindividualinterviewsfromhavingtoomuchinfluenceonthefinal
results.Theuseoftheseweightsinstatisticalanalysisensuresthatthedemographic
EAGLETONCENTERFORPUBLICINTERESTPOLLING|HOUSINGANDCOMMUNITYDEVELOPMENTNETWORKOFNEWJERSEY
17
characteristicsofthesamplecloselyapproximatethedemographiccharacteristicsofthetarget
population.
Allsurveysaresubjecttosamplingerror,whichistheexpectedprobabledifferencebetween
interviewingeveryoneinapopulationversusascientificsamplingdrawnfromthatpopulation.
Samplingerrorshouldbeadjustedtorecognizetheeffectofweightingthedatatobettermatch
thepopulation.Inthispoll,thesimplesamplingerrorfor704NewJerseyadultsis+/-3.7
percentagepointsata95percentconfidenceinterval.Thedesigneffectis1.37,makingthe
adjustedmarginoferror+/-4.3percentagepoints.Thusif50percentofNewJerseyadultsin
thissamplefavoraparticularposition,wewouldbe95percentsurethatthetruefigureis
between45.7and54.3percent(50+/-4.3)ifallNewJerseyadultshadbeeninterviewed,
ratherthanjustasample.
Samplingerrordoesnottakeintoaccountothersourcesofvariationinherentinpublicopinion
studies,suchasnon-response,questionwording,orcontexteffects.
ThisRutgers-EagletonPollwasfieldedbyBraunResearch,Inc.withsamplefromSurvey
SamplingInternational(SSI).Thequestionnairewasdevelopedandalldataanalyseswere
completedinhousebytheEagletonCenterforPublicInterestPolling(ECPIP).Dr.CliffZukin,
ProfessorEmeritusofPoliticalScienceandPublicPolicyandSeniorSurveyAdvisortoECPIP,
assistedwiththisquestionnaireandanalysis.WilliamYoungassistedwithanalysisand
preparationofthisreport.TheRutgers-EagletonPollispaidforandsponsoredbytheEagleton
InstituteofPoliticsatRutgers,TheStateUniversityofNewJersey,anon-partisanacademic
centerforthestudyofpoliticsandthepoliticalprocess.Thesequestionswerepaidforand
sponsoredbytheHousingandCommunityDevelopmentNetworkofNewJersey.Full
questionnairesareavailableonrequest,andcanalsobeaccessedthroughourarchivesat
eagletonpoll.rutgers.edu.Formoreinformation,[email protected].
EAGLETONCENTERFORPUBLICINTERESTPOLLING|HOUSINGANDCOMMUNITYDEVELOPMENTNETWORKOFNEWJERSEY
18
WeightedSampleCharacteristics704NewJerseyAdults
Male 48% Democrat 37% 18-34 26% HSorLess 33% White 58%Female 52% Independent 42% 35-49 26% SomeCollege 28% Black 12%
Republican 21% 50-64 27% CollegeGrad 22% Hispanic 19%
65+ 20% GradWork 17% Other 11%